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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
whyamihere said:
There are 67 districts that are rated by Cook as R+1 to R+7. Democrats hold 8 of those.

Of the 8 "EVEN" districts, Democrats hold 4.
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Thank you--that's what I was asking about earlier and hadn't seen before.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Blader said:
There are only four House special elections happening right now (meaning, the first half of 2017) and GA-6 is by far the most winnable, and Ossoff has gotten the most grassroots buzz of the four Dem candidates. So an outsize amount of money going to Ossoff's race makes sense.
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Aaron Strife said:
Thing is there's no real downside for splurging right now, GA-6 is about the only high profile race going on at the moment. Same with the gubernatorial races this Fall, I'm sure. The challenge will be in 2018 when we have hundreds of candidates in every state, district and county.
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I have a hard time believing there aren't numerous local races happening in all sorts of places across the country. I'm not just talking about the high profile seats. I'm talking about everything. That's how the republicans got so many seats: They ran for everything.

Roland_Gunner said:
The vast majority of that money came from individual donors who wanted to contribute to this race. The alternative wouldn't be to spread the money around the country, it would be for those folks to buy stuff on amazon or whatever.
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If most of that 23 million was direct small donations, then fair enough. But I feel like at the very least Ossof could spend less energy trying to raise more money for his own campaign and maybe instead try to encourage all of numerous donors to invest in other races.
 
B

Blader

Member
TestOfTide said:
I have a hard time believing there aren't numerous local races happening in all sorts of places across the country. I'm not just talking about the high profile seats. I'm talking about everything. That's how the republicans got so many seats: They ran for everything.
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Dems have won some local races this year (off the top of my head: held a state Senate seat in Delaware, flipped a couple local R seats in New York and New Hampshire). But the nature of those races don't really demand huge investments either.

If most of that 23 million was direct small donations, then fair enough. But I feel like at the very least Ossof could spend less energy trying to raise more money for his own campaign and maybe instead try to encourage all of numerous donors to invest in other races.
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Ossoff should be more focused on winning his race before trying to spread around the wealth to other campaigns. That's not even his job.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Carpe Libertatem said:
I would say St. Louis exurbs rather than suburbs, since MO-2 (most of STL's suburbs) shifted 5 points away from Trump. Hillary didn't improve on Obama at all, but Trump got 5 points less than Romney. Still pretty solidly red for now, but not exactly trending red. As someone who grew up in the area and still pays attention to what's going on, I'd guess the opposite will happen as more people (especially minorities) move out to the suburbs, but much slower than in place's like GA or AZ. MO as a whole will still be red of course.




Possibly? What the fuck :lol
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breaking news: literal imaginary person does poorly against longtime incumbent
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
TestOfTide said:
I have a hard time believing there aren't numerous local races happening in all sorts of places across the country. I'm not just talking about the high profile seats. I'm talking about everything. That's how the republicans got so many seats: They ran for everything.
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There are state legislative special elections, sure, but many of them have been in safe D or safe R seats.

The problem with diverting funds from Ossoff's race is that he can barely be considered a slight favorite, if that. He's raised an obscene amount of money but Handel isn't that far behind, he needs every cent he can get.

whyamihere said:
Brad Ashford back in for NE-2.
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He needs to step up his fundraising game if he wants to win this time. He completely blew it off last cycle until the last minute and it probably cost him his seat.
 
S

studyguy

Member
DCtAPRAW0AQR5bq.png

DCtAPNTXkAQdRJ0.png
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Why do we have a PresSec again?
Realistically, Trump likely has no fucking idea how congress works anyway, but hasn't seemed to stop him from weighing in on things so w/e.
 
H

Holmes

Member
The Technomancer said:
Oh good grief, SCOTUS grants a stay on the Wisconsin redistricting order while they review
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It makes sense though. Imagine all the trouble of drawing up new lines, people declaring their candidacies for these new districts and starting to campaign... only for SCOTUS to reverse the lower court ruling? It would be a huge clusterfuck.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Holmes said:
It makes sense though. Imagine all the trouble of drawing up new lines, people declaring their candidacies for these new districts and starting to campaign... only for SCOTUS to reverse the lower court ruling? It would be a huge clusterfuck.
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I was hoping they'd have something more substantive today but I guess they're taking their time with it. On the one hand I want them to do it right, on the other hand...clock's ticking guys
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Blader said:
Ossoff should be more focused on winning his race before trying to spread around the wealth to other campaigns. That's not even his job.
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I sincerely doubt that after you raise 20 million for a district race that it's going to make a notable difference for yourself between raising 20 million for yourself (but 3 million for other races) and raising 23 million for yourself (but 0 million for other races).

Ossof is a very high profile candidate and he should be using that fact to help boost other candidates across the country at this point.

Aaron Strife said:
There are state legislative special elections, sure, but many of them have been in safe D or safe R seats.

The problem with diverting funds from Ossoff's race is that he can barely be considered a slight favorite, if that. He's raised an obscene amount of money but Handel isn't that far behind, he needs every cent he can get.
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But that's the issue. 23 million have already been invested in this race. I sincerely doubt that more money is actually going to make a difference at this point. Saying that all this money should be focused on this one race is falling into the same mindset that led to the flawed idea of only investing in "competitive" races in the first place. That mindset is what destroyed the DNC the past few years.

For example:

He needs to step up his fundraising game if he wants to win this time. He completely blew it off last cycle until the last minute and it probably cost him his seat.
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If only a high profile candidate could help Brad Ashford raise some funds by directing donors into boosting him.........
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
whyamihere said:
If she wins, it's not because Jon Ossoff didn't live in the district. It's because it's a Republican-leaning district.
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What I meant was that I believe that on the ground going around talking to people, more were complaining about something stupid like Ossoff being a Pelosi puppet from outside the district than the impending destruction of their healthcare
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
whyamihere said:
Those people are not swing voters.
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Sure. Most of them. But also I think republican's just seem to be better at tying Democrats to people who are unfavorable to the opposition/independents than vise versa.

Has Ossoff tried tying Handel to Trump and Ryan? I just think its weird how they can so easily make Ossoff out to be a Mecha of Pelosi, Kathy Griffin and a terrorist gunman where are Republicans can still figure out how to remain more independent and retain their personal agency.

Ossoff has attacked Trump but hasn't really made Handel out to be a "puppet of the Trump agenda" or something in the same manner.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
Sure. Most of them. But also I think republican's just seem to be better at tying Democrats to people who are unfavorable to the opposition/independents than vise versa.

Has Ossoff tried tying Handel to Trump and Ryan? I just think its weird how they can so easily make Ossoff out to be a Mecha of Pelosi, Kathy Griffin and a terrorist gunman where are Republicans can still figure out how to remain more independent and retain their personal agency.

Ossoff has attacked Trump but hasn't really made Handel out to be a "puppet of the Trump agenda" or something in the same manner.
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You're moving off from the point, though:

There are almost no swing voters who care more about Jon Ossoff's residency than the AHCA.
 
B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
Sure. Most of them. But also I think republican's just seem to be better at tying Democrats to people who are unfavorable to the opposition/independents than vise versa.

Has Ossoff tried tying Handel to Trump and Ryan? I just think its weird how they can so easily make Ossoff out to be a Mecha of Pelosi, Kathy Griffin and a terrorist gunman where are Republicans can still figure out how to remain more independent and retain their personal agency.

Ossoff has attacked Trump but hasn't really made Handel out to be a "puppet of the Trump agenda" or something in the same manner.
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He has. There are ads here in GA that have Handel as "Trump's Partner On the Environment" and such
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
Sure. Most of them. But also I think republican's just seem to be better at tying Democrats to people who are unfavorable to the opposition/independents than vise versa.

Has Ossoff tried tying Handel to Trump and Ryan? I just think its weird how they can so easily make Ossoff out to be a Mecha of Pelosi, Kathy Griffin and a terrorist gunman where are Republicans can still figure out how to remain more independent and retain their personal agency.

Ossoff has attacked Trump but hasn't really made Handel out to be a "puppet of the Trump agenda" or something in the same manner.
Click to expand...

"When they go low, we go high..." and get our kneecaps busted.
 
F

fredrancour

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
Sure. Most of them. But also I think republican's just seem to be better at tying Democrats to people who are unfavorable to the opposition/independents than vise versa.

Has Ossoff tried tying Handel to Trump and Ryan? I just think its weird how they can so easily make Ossoff out to be a Mecha of Pelosi, Kathy Griffin and a terrorist gunman where are Republicans can still figure out how to remain more independent and retain their personal agency.

Ossoff has attacked Trump but hasn't really made Handel out to be a "puppet of the Trump agenda" or something in the same manner.
Click to expand...

As someone who's getting ossoff spam mail nonstop: yes he is bringing up Ryan trump and pence constantly
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
whyamihere said:
You're moving off from the point, though:

There are almost no swing voters who care more about Jon Ossoff's residency than the AHCA.
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I was more so mentioning the "nancy pelosi agenda", smear and democratic take over rather than the bolded having sway on the ground but yeah it's true those who could be swayed wouldn't be swayed by that.

BoogieWoogie said:
He has. There are ads here in GA that have Handel as "Trump's Partner On the Environment" and such
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fredrancour said:
As someone who's getting ossoff spam mail nonstop: yes he is bringing up Ryan trump and pence constantly
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I see. Just generally when I was looking up anything I could find on the race online mostly every Ossoff ad was promoting himself or a jab at Trump, and every Handel ad was a negative on Ossoff. But it's good to see that it's different in the district
 
F

fredrancour

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
I was more so mentioning the "nancy pelosi agenda", smear and democratic take over rather than the bolded having sway on the ground but yeah it's true those who could be swayed wouldn't be swayed by that.





I see. Just generally when I was looking up anything I could find on the race online mostly every Ossoff ad was promoting himself or a jab at Trump, and every Handel ad was a negative on Ossoff. But it's good to see that it's different in the district
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I'm not in his district. It's all email. His fundraising campaign boils down to "give us money to spite the GOP leadership
 
T

Teggy

Member
I'm skeptical that people who would ever vote Ossoff are actually hung up on the fact that he currently lives 15 minutes outside the district.
 
H

Holmes

Member
It's been interesting to see the cynicism about GA-06 increase over the last few days when honestly nothing has really changed at all since the jungle.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Dem FL gov candidates pledge a united front no matter who wins

HOLLYWOOD, Fla. (AP) — Florida’s three announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates agreed on most issues at a forum Saturday, from education to the economy to faith, but got their loudest cheers when they called for ending a 20-year string of Republican governors in 2018.

Speaking to 300 Democratic faithful at the state party’s annual fundraiser, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham and entrepreneur Chris King all said Florida needs to move away from the policies of Govs. Rick Scott and Jeb Bush by getting a Democrat elected for the first time since 1994. Scott is term-limited and cannot run for a third term next year. Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam is the leading Republican candidate.

All three said the state needs to raise its $8.10 minimum wage, with Gillum and Graham expressly calling for $15 an hour. All said the state needs to improve its education system by supporting traditional public schools and reversing Scott’s and Bush’s emphasis on charter schools. And all said Democrats must stop giving the Republican Party a monopoly when it comes to messages of faith.

Gillum, who has been mayor of Florida’s capital city since 2014, said the party needs to push an “unapologetic” progressive message and not cede the state’s rural and traditionally conservative areas to the Republicans.

“We are not trying to be ‘Republican light,'” he said. He got a big laugh when he said he campaigned recently at The Villages, the famously conservative retirement complex in central Florida – “Lord, have mercy.”

“Those are the folks we have to get to,” Gillum said. “You don’t lose that county and pick up that one. The person who will be the next governor will be the one who gets one more vote than the next person.”

Graham, the daughter of former senator and governor Bob Graham, said that when she hears Scott’s frequent mantra — jobs, jobs, jobs — “It means many people are having to work multiple jobs just to get by.”

“We have got to fix that,” said Graham, who served one term in Congress from north Florida. She said she introduced a bill while was in Congress that would have funded technical training in middle school.

“It’s a time in life when you want to excite kids, make them want to go to school every day and give them something to feel passionate about. We need to have technical training in middle school, through high school, through community colleges, wherever someone ambitious ends up in their educational journey to make sure the jobs that are here today, the ones we want to grow in the future, will have a trained workforce.”

King, a political newcomer who founded a company that invests in senior and low-income housing developments, said Democratic candidates have been too timid in discussing issues of faith. He got nods from the other two candidates.

“The other party has taken this away from us,” said King, who attends a non-denominational Christian church in Orlando. He said the religious right has created a limited definition of what people of faith should care about, but he will “go toe-to-toe with them” by saying people can be religious and support gay rights, affordable housing and expanded health insurance systems.

“My senior adviser is Muslim. My campaign manager is Jewish. We have Catholics and Christians. This is going to be a campaign that wants to bring people together,” King said.
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A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
whyamihere said:
Dem FL gov candidates pledge a united front no matter who wins
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�Those are the folks we have to get to,� Gillum said. �You don�t lose that county and pick up that one. The person who will be the next governor will be the one who gets one more vote than the next person.�
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Yes that's generally how it works.
great move from all of them. Governors are my personal races to watch next year.
 
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