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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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D

Deleted member 231381

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Cost disease is relatively easily explained. Certain things are innately labour intensive - you can't achieve any efficiencies in the amount of labour you use. We can't now perform a Beethoven orchestra with one person; a teacher can't teach the same class five times faster than they did in 1960. This is super is super relevant to the sector I currently work in, social care - no matter how much better technology gets, a care worker is never going to be able to turn a half an hour call into two minutes. Bum-wiping doesn't have any technological breakthroughs on the horizon.

At the same time, other industries are seeing enormous technological progressions, and so labour has become vastly more productive than before thanks to all of these new technologies available. Productivity has soared, and so wages soar with it (to an extent, at least, although there's another story there).

But if wages remained the same in labour-intensive industries as they always had, nobody would work in them. Like, suppose being a teacher in 1800 paid 5 shillings and being a cloth-maker in 1800 paid 5 shillings. By 1850, a cloth-maker is 4 times as productive per person thanks to machiney, and accordingly gets paid 20 shillings. If you kept the teacher's salary the same, then... nobody would teach. They'd all shift to making cloth. So the increase in productivity in capital-intensive industries forces an increase in labour costs in labour-intensive industries, even though they're not any better than they used to be.

You can see that all of the industries affected by cost disease are of a nature similar to educating, or caring for people, or going to see the films. You can't really make them more efficient - I can't view a film four times faster than in 1980. A doctor's call that needs to take half an hour will always take approximately half an hour, you can't really get any more efficiencies in the time it takes to diagnose things.

Now, cost-disease shouldn't matter, because those costs are labour costs, so wages ought to be increasing in proportion to the costs, so in real terms, the proportion of wages spent on those goods ought to be remaining fixed. Cinema tickets might be, in real terms, four times more expensive than they were in your grandpa's day, but your wages, in real terms, ought to be four times higher than his. The reason they're not isn't because of cost disease, it's because starting in the 1980s, wages and productivity decoupled. That's the real story here.
 
GOP senators are going to be so excited about this.

Frankly, I think the Dems should just leave town anyway.
Wouldn't they just be able to hold a vote on ACA repeal anyway (and Trump's stupid 48-4 comment would actually make sense), or do they need everyone there for a quorum?
 

pigeon

Banned
I mean my first reflexive reaction is "companies are charging more for everything because they found out they could outpace inflation just enough that people wouldn't notice right away", and education is more expensive because we're literally spending more on books, desks, refurbishment of space, etc

But also we would expect that trend to hold in similar other nations though right? Like, Germany and the UK aren't that politically dissimilar to the US when it comes to capitalism and markets, do they have a similar trend?

They don't seem to. Certainly for health care and infrastructure building they don't.

Cost disease is relatively easily explained. Certain things are innately labour intensive - you can't achieve any efficiencies in the amount of labour you use. We can't now perform a Beethoven orchestra with one person; a teacher can't teach the same class five times faster than they did in 1960. This is super is super relevant to the sector I currently work in, social care - no matter how much better technology gets, a care worker is never going to be able to turn a half an hour call into two minutes. Bum-wiping doesn't have any technological breakthroughs on the horizon.

At the same time, other industries are seeing enormous technological progressions, and so labour has become vastly more productive than before thanks to all of these new technologies available. Productivity has soared, and so wages soar with it (to an extent, at least, although there's another story there).

But if wages remained the same in labour-intensive industries as they always had, nobody would work in them. Like, suppose being a teacher in 1800 paid 5 shillings and being a cloth-maker in 1800 paid 5 shillings. By 1850, a cloth-maker is 4 times as productive per person thanks to machiney, and accordingly gets paid 20 shillings. If you kept the teacher's salary the same, then... nobody would teach. They'd all shift to making cloth. So the increase in productivity in capital-intensive industries forces an increase in labour costs in labour-intensive industries, even though they're not any better than they used to be.

You can see that all of the industries affected by cost disease are of a nature similar to educating, or caring for people, or going to see the films. You can't really make them more efficient - I can't view a film four times faster than in 1980.

Now, cost-disease shouldn't matter, because those costs are labour costs, so wages ought to be increasing in proportion to the costs, so in real terms, the proportion of wages spent on those goods ought to be remaining fixed. The reason they're not isn't because of cost disease, it's because starting in the 1980s, wages and productivity decoupled.

Yes, if you read the blog, you'll see that Baumol is mentioned, but rejected as an explanation.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Cost disease is relatively easily explained. Certain things are innately labour intensive - you can't achieve any efficiencies in the amount of labour you use. We can't now perform a Beethoven orchestra with one person; a teacher can't teach the same class five times faster than they did in 1960. This is super is super relevant to the sector I currently work in, social care - no matter how much better technology gets, a care worker is never going to be able to turn a half an hour call into two minutes. Bum-wiping doesn't have any technological breakthroughs on the horizon.

At the same time, other industries are seeing enormous technological progressions, and so labour has become vastly more productive than before thanks to all of these new technologies available. Productivity has soared, and so wages soar with it (to an extent, at least, although there's another story there).

But if wages remained the same in labour-intensive industries as they always had, nobody would work in them. Like, suppose being a teacher in 1800 paid 5 shillings and being a cloth-maker in 1800 paid 5 shillings. By 1850, a cloth-maker is 4 times as productive per person thanks to machiney, and accordingly gets paid 20 shillings. If you kept the teacher's salary the same, then... nobody would teach. They'd all shift to making cloth. So the increase in productivity in capital-intensive industries forces an increase in labour costs in labour-intensive industries, even though they're not any better than they used to be.

You can see that all of the industries affected by cost disease are of a nature similar to educating, or caring for people, or going to see the films. You can't really make them more efficient - I can't view a film four times faster than in 1980. A doctor's call that needs to take half an hour will always take approximately half an hour, you can't really get any more efficiencies in the time it takes to diagnose things.

Now, cost-disease shouldn't matter, because those costs are labour costs, so wages ought to be increasing in proportion to the costs, so in real terms, the proportion of wages spent on those goods ought to be remaining fixed. Cinema tickets might be, in real terms, four times more expensive than they were in your grandpa's day, but your wages, in real terms, ought to be four times higher than his. The reason they're not isn't because of cost disease, it's because starting in the 1980s, wages and productivity decoupled. That's the real story here.

Does the cost disease pattern hold in other countries with highly developed economies such as Europe though? This is a genuine question, I'm trying to find a clean look at education costs in various European countries now

They don't seem to. Certainly for health care and infrastructure building they don't.

I'd excise healthcare from this analysis honestly. I think that the cost growth in healthcare in the US is so straightforwardly chalked up to the hidden nature of the costs in an insurance system leading to an insular feedback loop in which various actors are incentivized to see costs go up without punishment that it becomes its own thing because those conditions don't really apply to anything else
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Does the cost disease pattern hold in other countries with highly developed economies such as Europe though? This is a genuine question, I'm trying to find a clean look at education costs in various European countries now

It does, yes. You see exactly the same pattern everywhere.
 
This is actually super bad. Call your congresspeople and tell them that even if Israel is bad, making it illegal to be mad at Israel is deeply un-American.

Holy fuck jail time up to 20 years o_O


The bill would amend existing law to prohibit people in the United States from supporting boycotts targeting Israel — making it a felony to choose not to engage in commerce with companies doing business in Israel and its settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories. Violations would be punishable by a minimum civil penalty of $250,000 and a maximum criminal penalty of $1 million and 20 years in prison.

https://www.aclu.org/blog/speak-freely/first-amendment-protects-right-boycott-israel
 
And how's that different now than when he was under investigation by Comey? Nothing really changed - just a different investigator.

Don't get me wrong, I want Trump to eat shit as much as anyone. But Congress has to feed it to him, and so far they've been unwilling to do so.

Mueller is more independent, he cannot be directly fired by Trump and he has more broad hiring abilities than Comey had. You might have noticed the string of high-power talent he has brought on.
 
Your slogans are all so bad.

Democrats 2018: All you motherfuckers are gonna pay. You are the ones who are the ball-lickers. We're gonna fuck your mothers while you watch and cry like little, whiny bitches. Once we get to Washington and find those Republican fucks... we're gonna make them eat our shit, then shit out our shit, and then eat their shit that's made up of our shit that we made 'em eat. Then all you motherfucks are next. Love- Libs.
 

Gruco

Banned
GOP senators are going to be so excited about this.

Frankly, I think the Dems should just leave town anyway.

I totally agree. Spend the entire time on constituent outreach while the GOP spins their wheels in DC plotting Legion of Doom nonsense.
 
"DO WHAT WE WANT OR NO SUMMER!"

McConnell's really dumb huh?
McConnell has devolved into the villain character from the Recess movie played by James Woods.

phillium-benedict-recess-schools-out-1.53.jpg


NO RECESS, NO SUMMER
 
Anyone follow NJ politics? I was reading a Politico article that suggested Christie will have the power to replace Menedez if he ends up having to make a plea deal or go to jail. Is their any weight to his charges or his this just a bunch of hoopla? It seems like it would be pretty bad the Republican's pick up another Senate seat even if it is only until 2018.
 
Anyone follow NJ politics? I was reading a Politico article that suggested Christie will have the power to replace Menedez if he ends up having to make a plea deal or go to jail. Is their any weight to his charges or his this just a bunch of hoopla? It seems like it would be pretty bad the Republican's pick up another Senate seat even if it is only until 2018.
I'm hoping Menendez can stay out of trouble just until Murphy gets sworn in.

Only 51 Senators are needed for a quarom. If the Democrats left town, Republicans could easily pass whatever they want.
Yup. Appreciate the gesture but skipping town would be a terrible idea.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Yes, if you read the blog, you'll see that Baumol is mentioned, but rejected as an explanation.

That's because the poster doesn't appear to understand Baumol entirely. Look at it another way: the cost of this education has increased. But it isn't going to the teachers. So who is it going to? It's going to the upper managerial sector (principals and supervisors) and the owners/shareholders. They are also affected by Baumol. The upper manager of a school hasn't overseen the gains the upper manager of a factory has. Unless the entire managerial sector is expected to move to factories, principals' and shareholders' wages have to rise per Baumol. But then teachers' wages can then stay stagnant, because factory workers' wages have also stayed stagnant, so the ratio remains constant (which the blog you linked to notices, but doesn't seem to understand the importance of).

So we have two stories going on here. The first is something entirely normal (Baumol) that we can't counteract. The second is what I was talking about - the wage-productivity decoupling, where increasing amounts of the wages of lower-class workers are being expropriated by those at the top.
 
Is there a process for replacing House Speaker?
I believe you'd need 218 members to file a motion to vacate the Speaker's position and there'd be another election.

Senate leaders are just elected by a majority of their caucus. McConnell would need 27 Republicans to turn on him.
 
Here is an interesting blog post that I think deserves consideration: http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/09/considerations-on-cost-disease/



Here's a big thing that's going on in America right now: everything costs way more. The reason Millenials can't afford stuff isn't because of the avocado toast. It isn't even because of the financial crisis! It's because everything costs like 2 to 10 times as much as it used to, but wages stayed the same or went down. And nobody seems to understand why this cost increase happened.

I worry more and more that this issue may be quite relevant to a lot of the discussions regarding welfare and good jobs and basic income. What if the jobs people have now would be good if goods just cost a lot less? I want to see a lot more research into America's cost disease, because it does not seem impossible to me that this may actually be the biggest economic issue today.
interesting stuff but triggered by use of "First World country"
 

Ogodei

Member
This is actually super bad. Call your congresspeople and tell them that even if Israel is bad, making it illegal to be mad at Israel is deeply un-American.

Criminalizing BDS wouldn't hold up in court. How does one implement BDS? You voice your intention to refuse to purchase Israeli products, invest in Israeli government bonds or company stocks, and refuse to do business with Israeli institutions of any kind. How would that be enforceable? Would everyone be obligated to buy Israeli or make Israeli options their first choice for making a purchase or investment?

Well, the government knows because you declared your intent to participate in BDS. The government legally penalizes you for your opinion on Israel and your speech to that effect, which is what makes an otherwise innocuous action (choosing not to go with Israeli stuff for non-BDS reasons) into a criminal act.
 
It should be mentioned that the Dems don't need to have a good slogan.

Whoever runs as the Dem nominee absolutely needs to have a good slogan. "Keep America Great" is a nice, snappy, rally-the-troops slogan for Trump, so you have to undercut it.

Somebody in here had the idea that you could undercut Hillary's "jack of all trades, master of none" social justice policy wonk persona by using "Breaking Down All the Barriers", how about "Tear Down the Walls" or something along those lines? Both a dig at Trumpism and a way of tying the Dems' various issues together, especially if they run an intersectional candidate like Kamala Harris. Only worry is it's perhaps too easily spun as "open borders globalism" by Breitbart, but fuck it.
 
The Democrats should embrace marijuana legalization and run on "Let's Get High." It makes for the perfect double entendre: raising the discourse a la Michelle Obama and promising the children their cannabis.

It would be hilarious if Mitch lost his position over canceling vacation.

It'd be even more hilarious if Trump fired his wife.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It should be mentioned that the Dems don't need to have a good slogan.

Whoever runs as the Dem nominee absolutely needs to have a good slogan. "Keep America Great" is a nice, snappy, rally-the-troops slogan for Trump, so you have to undercut it.

Somebody in here had the idea that you could undercut Hillary's "jack of all trades, master of none" social justice policy wonk persona by using "Breaking Down All the Barriers", how about "Tear Down the Walls" or something along those lines? Both a dig at Trump and a way of tying the Dems' various issues together, especially if they run an intersectional candidate like Kamala Harris.

Tear Down the Walls means nothing to the average American. Trump supporters love the walls, liberal luvvies hate the walls, and for the other 80% of the population the wall has no material impact on their life one way or the other. You've spent too much time talking to hyerpolitical people if you think that has appeal.
 
It should be mentioned that the Dems don't need to have a good slogan.

Whoever runs as the Dem nominee absolutely needs to have a good slogan. "Keep America Great" is a nice, snappy, rally-the-troops slogan for Trump, so you have to undercut it.

Somebody in here had the idea that you could undercut Hillary's "jack of all trades, master of none" social justice policy wonk persona by using "Breaking Down All the Barriers", how about "Tear Down the Walls" or something along those lines? Both a dig at Trumpism and a way of tying the Dems' various issues together, especially if they run an intersectional candidate like Kamala Harris. Only worry is it's perhaps too easily spun as "open borders globalism" by Breitbart, but fuck it.

Her actual slogan was Stronger Together... which I actually really liked
 
The Democrats should embrace marijuana legalization and run on "Let's Get High." It makes for the perfect double entendre: raising the discourse a la Michelle Obama and promising the children their cannabis.



It'd be even more hilarious if Trump fired his wife.

Democrats 2018: Higher Wages, Higher People
 
This seems both unconstitutional and unenforceable, but what the hell, might as well give 'em a call.
The bill prohibits U.S. persons engaged in interstate or foreign commerce from:
  • requesting the imposition of any boycott by a foreign country against a country which is friendly to the United States; or
  • supporting any boycott fostered or imposed by an international organization, or requesting imposition of any such boycott, against Israel
I think as an individual business owner I am still allowed to personally boycott Israel.
 
Why not both?

I actually have no issue with Elaine Chao, one of the more competent members of the administration. If I had my druthers, she and the Secretary of Labor, along with Mattis, could stay. I'd make Ben Carson surgeon general. All of them would be fairly standard picks for any Republican administration.

The others, however, range from incompetent (Rick Perry) to dangerous (DeVos) and need to go.
 
Tear Down the Walls means nothing to the average American. Trump supporters love the walls, liberal luvvies hate the walls, and for the other 80% of the population the wall has no material impact on their life one way or the other. You've spent too much time talking to hyerpolitical people if you think that has appeal.

It is interesting to be told what does and does not mean something to the average American by a Brit. It's an obviously (but not overtly) anti-Trump slogan, it suggests fighting the various -isms, it hints at economic reform, jobs reform, healthcare reform, police reform, etc., not to mention it plays on one of the most famous things said by an American president in the 20th Century and avoids falling into the trap of seeming like a Trump-lite slogan. Half of a slogan is how you sell it, breh, and you leave room for people to read themselves into it as the movement builds on itself over time.

Of course, "Better America" as a brand, as I suggested earlier, also works, but the problem with any slogan that covers the whole Dem coalition is it gets so broad as to be utterly generic.

Edit: Stronger Together is too passive, it doesn't suggest concrete action the way "Make America Great Again" or "Yes We Can" do.
 
Tear Down the Walls means nothing to the average American. Trump supporters love the walls, liberal luvvies hate the walls, and for the other 80% of the population the wall has no material impact on their life one way or the other. You've spent too much time talking to hyerpolitical people if you think that has appeal.

I don't think they just meant The Wall.
 
Unemployed Man writes sick Twitter burns. Maybe we should enlist him to write the slogan.

True story: I came very close to calling him Unemployed Man in actual conversation but thankfully stopped myself. "Liberal Icon" has slipped out a few times, though.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I don't think they just meant The Wall.

I know, but that's making your slogan too abstract. If you have to explain the walls are metaphors for economic injustice, your 50-something surburban dude that Obama carried and Clinton lost already just writes you off as an airy-fairy liberal arts students.
 

Random Human

They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
The Democrats should embrace marijuana legalization and run on "Let's Get High." It makes for the perfect double entendre: raising the discourse a la Michelle Obama and promising the children their cannabis.

Higher Together
 
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