whyamihere
Banned
My god.
This has the production value of an ad for a local suburban bowling alley on PBS.
It's from 2008 but it's still amazing.
My god.
This has the production value of an ad for a local suburban bowling alley on PBS.
dying
I don't want to hear another "we weren't even supposed to win Georgia so it's really a victory for us to get that close in such a red district" take again.
People saying it's evidence that Democrats need to get racist are morons and bad people but Ossoff lost and he lost by more than he was supposed to even if he did lose. This was the "winnable" district and had huge amounts of money and energy sunk into it and it certainly won't get that kind of attention next year.
It's not the end of the world but any takes about how the results last night were Good, Actually need to stop.
I don't want to hear another "we weren't even supposed to win Georgia so it's really a victory for us to get that close in such a red district" take again.
People saying it's evidence that Democrats need to get racist are morons and bad people but Ossoff lost and he lost by more than he was supposed to even if he did lose. This was the "winnable" district and had huge amounts of money and energy sunk into it and it certainly won't get that kind of attention next year.
It's not the end of the world but any takes about how the results last night were Good, Actually need to stop.
I don't want to hear another "we weren't even supposed to win Georgia so it's really a victory for us to get that close in such a red district" take again.
People saying it's evidence that Democrats need to get racist are morons and bad people but Ossoff lost and he lost by more than he was supposed to even if he did lose. This was the "winnable" district and had huge amounts of money and energy sunk into it and it certainly won't get that kind of attention next year.
It's not the end of the world but any takes about how the results last night were Good, Actually need to stop.
Pretty much.
They ran the numbers and thought it was winnable. If they didn't think so, they would have left it to die like all the other special races. They were way off the mark.
Not a good result and if the party wants to win majorities more consistently then they'll need to win places like this consistently as well. 23m+ and losing by basically the same margins as contests you didn't compete in is terrible management
This is so fucking untrue it's painful.
401ks are the current backbone of middle class retirement savings.
I don't want to hear another "we weren't even supposed to win Georgia so it's really a victory for us to get that close in such a red district" take again.
People saying it's evidence that Democrats need to get racist are morons and bad people but Ossoff lost and he lost by more than he was supposed to even if he did lose. This was the "winnable" district and had huge amounts of money and energy sunk into it and it certainly won't get that kind of attention next year.
It's not the end of the world but any takes about how the results last night were Good, Actually need to stop.
Attitudes Toward Government Intervention
Whether we need a strong government to handle complex economic problems.
Whether there is too much/too little regulation of business by the government.
The measures here are ”absolute" measures as opposed to ”relative." That is, I took the responses to the VOTER Survey questions as given, rather than rescaling the indexes to set the median score at zero. While this transformation would have made for a more symmetrical presentation, it ignores the fact that Americans may hold left-of-center views on some issues and right-of-center views on other issues. These imbalances and asymmetries are important to represent clearly. They are the raw material of both the strategic coalition building and coalition instability described in this chapter.
Supporters of Clinton and Trump are very polarized on identity and moral issues. Views on economic issues are more of a mix.
Trump supporters tend to have more pride in America than Clinton supporters do, and they are more likely to think that their group is in decline. However, these divides are not as significant as many media narratives portrayed them to be.
Divides get much wider as we move toward questions of race and national identity. Trump voters have more negative attitudes than Clinton supporters about African-Americans, are much less supportive of immigration, and have much more negative feelings toward Muslims.
On moral issues (abortion, same-sex marriage, transgender bathrooms), there is an even larger divide between Clinton and Trump supporters in the general election. As we will see later, this was one area where Trump's core supporters looked more moderate than Ted Cruz supporters. However, these questions continue to divide the two parties.
Finally, the traditional issues that have divided the two parties, questions of inequality (whether the rich have too much money and should be taxed more), and questions about government's involvement in the economy (whether government should intervene more or less and whether government should regulate business more or less) continue to divide the parties the most.
To summarize, supporters of Clinton and Trump are very polarized on identity and moral issues. Views on economic issues are more of a mix. Both candidates' supporters are generally supportive of the social safety net, and somewhat concerned about trade. Yet they diverge very much on how concerned they are about inequality, and how actively they want to see government regulate business and intervene in the economy.
The 12 dimensions provide nuance, but for simplicity's sake, it is easier to combine these indexes into the two main dimensions that organize public opinion: questions of economics and questions of culture/social/national identity.
To do this, I created two new indexes:
An economic liberalism-conservatism index (which combines views on the social safety net, trade, inequality, and active government)
A social/identity liberalism-conservatism politics index (which combines the moral issues index plus views toward African-Americans, immigrants, and Muslims).
This allows us to plot all respondents on a single scatterplot, shown here.
Most Clinton supporters cluster in the lower-left corner: liberal on both economic and identity issues. Trump supporters cluster in the upper-middle: conservative on identity issues, and somewhat conservative on economic issues.4 Trump general election voters, however, are more widely dispersed on economic issues, ranging more broadly from liberal to conservative.
To simplify further, we can break the electorate into four types, based on their position in the four quadrants of Figure 2:
Liberal (44.6 percent): Lower left, liberal on both economic and identity issues
Populist (28.9 percent): Upper left, liberal on economic issues, conservative on identity issues
Conservative (22.7 percent): Upper right, conservative on both economic and identity issues
Libertarian (3.8 percent): Lower right, conservative on economics, liberal on identity issues
I don't want to hear another "we weren't even supposed to win Georgia so it's really a victory for us to get that close in such a red district" take again.
People saying it's evidence that Democrats need to get racist are morons and bad people but Ossoff lost and he lost by more than he was supposed to even if he did lose. This was the "winnable" district and had huge amounts of money and energy sunk into it and it certainly won't get that kind of attention next year.
It's not the end of the world but any takes about how the results last night were Good, Actually need to stop.
dying
translation: Fillibuster's dead in all but name.
It wasn't until we got to high five figure jobs that we even started seeing companies offering 401k programs. Matching was a few steps later. How are these hypothetical middle class employees getting these 401ks?
Anyone can set up a 401k through tdameritrade or something else. The problem is that too many people live paycheck to paycheck and don't have the money to fund one.
That might be for the better.
How much was Ossoff supposed to lose by? The polls were essentially in a dead heat, with a margin of error of 4 points. Ossoff lost by just under 4 points. If there's any relatively objective measurement of supposed margins of winning or losing, it seems like his loss was spot on!.
They need to start factoring in the fact that so many Democrats, or Dem-leaning Independents, don't show up to vote, even if they are polled saying they will. Factor in an automatic -4 for any Dem in a poll to get a better idea of actual voting numbers.
Pollsters come to you, it's easy to say yes. But having to show up to vote is like going to the gym for so many, and they end up bailing, figuring it doesn't matter anyway.
The GOP has so poisoned the well that a majority of voters now think it doesn't matter so why bother.
On the other hand, all the takes about how this is apocalyptically bad for the Democrats are really stupid and generally regressive.
Maybe we can compromise on "this is whatever."
Voting is easier than committing to the gym, and people still won't do it...They need to start factoring in the fact that so many Democrats, or Dem-leaning Independents, don't show up to vote, even if they are polled saying they will. Factor in an automatic -4 for any Dem in a poll to get a better idea of actual voting numbers.
Pollsters come to you, it's easy to say yes. But having to show up to vote is like going to the gym for so many, and they end up bailing, figuring it doesn't matter anyway.
The GOP has so poisoned the well that a majority of voters now think it doesn't matter so why bother.
GOP Might Buck Senate Rules to Pass Health Care Overhaul
http://www.rollcall.com/news/gop-might-buck-senate-rules-to-advance-health-care-overhaul/
@HeerJeet
Actually, the greatest trick the Devil ever played was convincing Democrats their future lay in winning over moderate Republicans.
Karen Handels narrow victory over Jon Ossoff in last nights special election in Georgia shows how Republicans can keep their coalition together despite President Donald Trumps unpopularity. True, Trump was a drag on Handel, who won by four points in a conservative district that Tom Price, now Trumps Health and Human Services secretary, carried by 23 points just six months ago. But in the end, Handel convinced enough Republicans to come home to the party, which she did by shrewdly realizing what unifies the party: anti-anti-Trumpism.
During the campaign, Handel, a former Georgia secretary of state, took care to avoid mentioning Trumps name whenever possible, referring to him only as the president. But as David Weigel reported in the Washington Post, Handel and her political allies ran a tribalist campaign designed to remind Republicans voters that, whatever they might feel about Trump, they hate his opponents more. They relentlessly linked Ossoff to Trumps critics, from establishment figures like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to outliers such as controversial comedian Kathy Griffin.
Griffin, whose involvement in the race was limited to one April tweet in support of Ossoff, has now been linked to [Bernie] Sanders and Pelosi in a lineup of childish radicals who back the Democrat, Weigel wrote. The ad strategy, and the campaign visit from Republicans such as House Speaker Paul Ryan, have had almost nothing to say about what Republicans were working on in Washington. The message was that Republicans would feel terrible if they had to watch Democrats celebrate.
Handel hit on the magic formula for keeping Republican voters from jumping ship: a politics of negative partisanship taken to its logical extreme, where political identity is based solely on opposition to the other side. This anti-anti-Trumpism is now the glue holding together the otherwise fraying Republican coalition. Its a weirdly contorted ideology, a counter-punching worldview that shows that the power of hatred can be the strongest force in politics.
Anti-anti-Trumpism is a natural outgrowth of longstanding Republican tendencies toward negative politics, which ramped up in the 1990s when thenHouse Speaker Newt Gingrich and fellow Republicans made opposing President Bill Clinton the primary feature of their party. But this anti-Democratic and anti-liberal philosophy has been updated today to account for an unpopular Republican president: Whatever you dislike about Trump, rest assured his opponents are far worse.
Anti-anti-Trumpism pervades conservative thinking, and is especially strong in an unexpected quarter: among Never Trump Republicans. Media outlets like National Review and The Federalist, which once warned that Trump was a menace to conservatism, are now devoted to decrying the presidents critics, sometimes portraying them as subversives who will stop at nothing, not even violence, to defeat Trump. Matt Lewis, a conservative writer at the Daily Beast, on Wednesday lamented this shift at The Federalist, writing, Its one thing to point out the lefts hypocrisy and the medias hyperventilation; its another thing to cast Trump as a victim.
Anti-anti-Trumpism is an increasingly comfortable mode for many conservatives because it allows them to maintain a right-wing identity, and support the Republican Congress, without affirmatively backing the toxic president himself. Its an especially convenient position for traditional conservative writers who want to remain relevantthat is, to retain their readershipin the age of Trump. The anti-anti-Trump position is a safe one, John Ziegler, a Mediaite columnist and conservative talk show host, told Lewis, because youre giving the Trump cult what they want while youre also trying to pretend youre standing on some sort of principle.
The powerful appeal of anti-anti-Trumpism is evident in the latest New York Times column by David Brooks, once the embodiment of intellectual Never Trumpism. Brooks compares the ongoing Russia investigation with the fake Whitewater scandal that Republicans ginned up in the 1990s, a comparison that immediately falls apart when Brooks admits he doesnt even know what Whitewater was all about: I was the op-ed editor at The Wall Street Journal at the peak of the Whitewater scandal. We ran a series of investigative pieces raising serious questions (as we say in the scandal business) about the nefarious things the Clintons were thought to have done back in Arkansas. Now I confess I couldnt follow all the actual allegations made in those essays.
Starting from this place of ignorance, Brooks confidently concludes, In retrospect Whitewater seems overblown. And yet it has to be confessed that, at least so far, the Whitewater scandal was far more substantive than the Russia-collusion scandal now gripping Washington. There may be a giant revelation still to come. But as the Trump-Russia story has evolved, it is striking how little evidence there is that any underlying crime occurredthat there was any actual collusion between the Donald Trump campaign and the Russians. He later writes that frankly, on my list of reasons Trump is unfit for the presidency, the Russia-collusion story ranks number 971.
The Whitewater scandal grew out of investments the Clintons made with friends Jim and Susan McDougal in Arkansas in the 1970s and 1980s. While the McDougals received felony convictions for various shady business dealings, multiple government inquiries found no evidence connecting these crimes to the Clintons and no member of the Clinton administration was implicated. The Russia investigation has already had far more real-world consequencesfor starters, the resignation of national security advisor Michael Flynn and the firing of FBI Director James Comey. And lets not forget what started it all: Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election with the intent of helping Trump, and perhaps were responsible for his election. The Russia investigation is still in its early days, but it is already much closer to Watergatewhich, its worth noting, began with the burglarization of a Democratic Party office by Nixon White House operatives, not a widespread hacking campaign by a hostile foreign powerthan Whitewater.
Why is David Brooks suddenly running interference for Trump? For the same reason that National Review and The Federalist have become organs for attacking Trumps foes, and that most Republican voters reverted to partisan loyalty and voted for Handel: politics is tribal. Brookss might present himself as a thoughtful, above-the-fray conservative, but at the end of the day, he too feels the tug of loyalty. A Republican president is being attacked, and his instinct is to find extenuating reasons for the mans controversial actions.
In making sense of anti-anti-Trumpism, Lewis wrote that the Trump presidency is dangerous for conservatives, in part because it confuses things. Its hard to justify your existence as a balance to the liberal media if you are spending most of your time criticizing a Republican president. This may well be what Brooks, a fierce critic of Trump last year, has come to realize. But his essays are now weaker for it. As Lewis wrote, If youre not keen on defending the indefensible (which would be most of Trumps rhetoric), you end up making a lot of tu quoque arguments that become hackneyed and predictable.
Trump himself might even realize the power of anti-anti-Trumpismthat would explain his otherwise inexplicable decision to keep harping on Crooked H, more than half a year after he defeated her. Because anti-anti-Trumpism is the cohesive force keeping the Republicans together, we can expect both Trump and other Republicans to continue to demonize his critics at every turn. This will only intensify as Trump finds himself in more political troubleand it should give Democrats pause. Ossoff, like Clinton before him, bet that he could win over enough disaffected Republicans to win. But in this age of negative partisanship, as Tuesday nights results prove, its extremely hard to create enough converts. As they strategize for next years midterms, Democrats should accept the indomitable force of anti-anti-Trumpism and focus instead on energizing the very people whom anti-anti-Trumpers are demonizing.
It wasn't until we got to high five figure jobs that we even started seeing companies offering 401k programs. Matching was a few steps later. How are these hypothetical middle class employees getting these 401ks?
"We need leadership change. It's time for Nancy Pelosi to go, and the entire leadership team," Dem Rep Kathleen Rice tells @deirdrewalshcnn
https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/877606667466055680
The calls for Pelosi to quit starts once again.
I had access to (and took advantage of) a 401k program with matching when I started out at a $50K/year salary. My sister works part time for a big clothing retailer, and she has a 401k through them. I recognize these are both anecdotes - if anyhow has hard numbers on the availability of 401Ks at various different income levels, it could be helpful.It wasn't until we got to high five figure jobs that we even started seeing companies offering 401k programs. Matching was a few steps later. How are these hypothetical middle class employees getting these 401ks?
I FUCKING WANT THIS RASTAAAAA
This is also a good chart in terms of the voters that we should be going after.
https://www.voterstudygroup.org/reports/2016-elections/political-divisions-in-2016-and-beyond
This is really annoying to read because you know damn well if the DNC and DCCC left this race to wither on the vine, you would be among the people who would be (and deservedly so) calling out the party for failing to provide attention and resources to Ossoff's campaign.
The party spent a lopsided amount of money on this race relative to every House race in history, but so did the Republicans! And it would be irresponsible to allow a race where the candidates are basically tied and where the GOP is dumping millions of dollars in support not to respond in kind.
This is the only ticket I want.
I guess I'll never get how Obama beat Romney if all these moderate Republicans were unreachable.
Ossoff, like Clinton before him, bet that he could win over enough disaffected Republicans to win. But in this age of negative partisanship, as Tuesday nights results prove, its extremely hard to create enough converts. As they strategize for next years midterms, Democrats should accept the indomitable force of anti-anti-Trumpism and focus instead on energizing the very people whom anti-anti-Trumpers are demonizing.
I guess I'll never get how Obama beat Romney if all these moderate Republicans were unreachable.
This is a valid point but Heer and the people on this board who support an agenda that brings back wayward Dems need to acknowledge that doing this is going to require some policies that aren't terribly progressive. A candidate that wants to do well in the Midwest will have to focus on economic populism and make concessions on race and gender issues. Much like Manchin and Heitkamp are doing now.
This is also a good chart in terms of the voters that we should be going after.
https://www.voterstudygroup.org/reports/2016-elections/political-divisions-in-2016-and-beyond
This is a valid point but Heer and the people on this board who support an agenda that brings back wayward Dems need to acknowledge that doing this is going to require some policies that aren't terribly progressive. A candidate that wants to do well in the Midwest will have to focus on economic populism and make concessions on race and gender issues. Much like Manchin and Heitkamp are doing now.
This doesn't seem to clarify things?
If we shouldn't pursue moderate Republicans, we have to pursue the racists who voted for Obama because they thought Rmoney would take their Medicare. But Trump is far to Romney's left on Social Security and Medicare. So, uhh, not seeing an obvious path from this.
Not politics related in a sense but the huge 5pm story will be about a top WSJ reporter.
WSJ has fired @WSJSolomon. There's said to be a big AP investigation expected on the backstory.
https://twitter.com/mlcalderone/status/877610280049455106
https://twitter.com/hadas_gold/status/877609581119021057This is sounding like an insane story from early sourcing Im getting, stay tuned.
This is a valid point but Heer and the people on this board who support an agenda that brings back wayward Dems need to acknowledge that doing this is going to require some policies that aren't terribly progressive. A candidate that wants to do well in the Midwest will have to focus on economic populism and make concessions on race and gender issues. Much like Manchin and Heitkamp are doing now.
Not politics related in a sense but the huge 5pm story will be about a top WSJ reporter.
WSJ has fired @WSJSolomon. There's said to be a big AP investigation expected on the backstory.
https://twitter.com/mlcalderone/status/877610280049455106
Not politics related in a sense but the huge 5pm story will be about a top WSJ reporter.
WSJ has fired @WSJSolomon. There's said to be a big AP investigation expected on the backstory.
https://twitter.com/mlcalderone/status/877610280049455106
Any take about how this the end of the party or a permanent GOP majority is incredibly dumb for sure. I just don't want to see "well actually this is a red district" held as an excuse.On the other hand, all the takes about how this is apocalyptically bad for the Democrats are really stupid and generally regressive.
Maybe we can compromise on "this is whatever."
Gamergate (and it's "corrupt" language being picked up and used against Clinton) should have taught you that only one thing matters to them.Is the history of Nancy Pelosi, her beliefs, what her job actually is, her voting history and the history of her leadership some kind of profound hidden secret passed down by blind monks living in the Rocky Mountains?
Because... nobody seems to know anything about Nancy Pelosi lol
Doesn't stop them from hating her, though!