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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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Karkador

Banned
"What happened to the old days when people came into this country and they worked, and they worked, and they worked, and they had families, and they paid taxes, and they did all sorts of things, and their families got stronger, and they were closely knit - we don't see that"

All immigrants now are lawless, culture-less scum, I suppose
 

UberTag

Member
God fuck all the police that clapped for that nonsense

And the supposed good cops wonder why we despise them.
Are there good cops? Or are they just cops who haven't been caught yet feigning innocence and acting repugnant as they wear blinders about the actions of their comrades in arms?
 

jmdajr

Member
"What happened to the old days when people came into this country and they worked, and they worked, and they worked, and they had families, and they paid taxes, and they did all sorts of things, and their families got stronger, and they were closely knit - we don't see that"

All immigrants now are lawless, culture-less scum, I suppose

This guy...
 

Zolo

Member
"What happened to the old days when people came into this country and they worked, and they worked, and they worked, and they had families, and they paid taxes, and they did all sorts of things, and their families got stronger, and they were closely knit - we don't see that"

All immigrants now are lawless, culture-less scum, I suppose

Racism is all Trump has now.
 

Ogodei

Member
Are there good cops? Or are they just cops who haven't been caught yet feigning innocence and acting repugnant as they wear blinders about the actions of their comrades in arms?

There are good cops, who will also go to bat 9 times out of 10 for the bad ones.
 

Wilsongt

Member
In an interview with BBC Radio 4 Today, Gorka was asked, in reference to Trump: “How can it be the case that he is speaking for the whole military if he is speaking out against one section of the military?”

“The military is not a microcosm of civilian society,” Gorka responded. “They are not there to reflect America. They are there to kill people and blow stuff up, they are not there to be social engineered.”

“We want people who are transgender to live happy lives,” he continued. “But we want unit cohesion and we want combat effectiveness. There are leading studies from the medical establishment, for example, that state that the transgender community has a 40 percent suicide attempt rate. That is a tragedy. We need to help those people, we don’t need to try and force them into the hierarchical military environment where they are under the utmost pressure to kill or be killed, and that is why the President is doing this — out of the warmth of his consideration of this population.

Catapulting Gorka into the sun would be an insult to our sun.


You know who else have high suicide rates?

Soldiers who are inflicted with PTSD or raped in the military and then come home to piss poor care.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Carter's "ineffectiveness" is somewhat overstated. He created two federal agencies (Education and Energy) and made massive changes in response to the energy crisis, deregulated airline transportation and financial services, and passed a large capital gains tax cut. It's not like nothing happened over his four years.

I'd have to see the details of the Airline and Finance changes, but ouch at the Capital Gains tax cut.

That needs to be treated as regular income, with some type of fee that discourages (basically greatly reduces second/minute trading) but does not eliminate day trading.

There are good cops, who will also go to bat 9 times out of 10 for the bad ones.

Yeah, the ones that actually stand up for justice, against the "blue wall of silence" are few and far between, and then basically ousted for their actions.
 
I cannot believe how unified the Democrats have been.
It's pretty great.

Manchin sucks but I'd still take him any day over Lieberman.

Maybe they'll be more of a pain in the ass the next time we have a Democratic president though. In fact strike "maybe," probably. All the same.

My wish is that we run up the score in 2018/2020 and actually manage to have one great presidential term. Go into 2021 with a Dem trifecta and hold onto it thanks to new, fair House maps, an okay Senate map (not much defense in 2022 and a few pickup opportunities), and a "woke" Dem base that turns out in the midterms at a higher rate than usual.

Just one four-year term that looks a lot like Obama's first two years, but doubled.
 
N78lo9b.png


This.

BLM was a big problem for Dems in 2016.

Democrats need to figure out how to convey their positions on things better here.
 

Vimes

Member
Great admiration for Schumer and Pelosi, but how much of democratic unity just comes down to the fact that anyone who might have acted out simply got their seat flipped red last year?
 

Blader

Member
N78lo9b.png


This.

BLM was a big problem for Dems in 2016.

Democrats need to figure out how to convey their positions on things better here.

If only we had some kind of 'top cop' to run in 2020...

Great admiration for Schumer and Pelosi, but how much of democratic unity just comes down to the fact that anyone who might have acted out simply got their seat flipped red last year?

There are like a half-dozen Senate Dems whose states went for Trump by double-digits last year. West Virginia voted for Trump by 42 points! And yet, how often is Manchin siding with McConnell or Trump?
 

Jeels

Member
"What happened to the old days when people came into this country and they worked, and they worked, and they worked, and they had families, and they paid taxes, and they did all sorts of things, and their families got stronger, and they were closely knit - we don't see that"

All immigrants now are lawless, culture-less scum, I suppose

Is this a straight up quote?
 

Zolo

Member
N78lo9b.png


This.

BLM was a big problem for Dems in 2016.

Democrats need to figure out how to convey their positions on things better here.

We know Obama's support in the midwest dropped when people realized he supported civil rights activists.

Or I guess another way to put it: The largest voter-base in the country that consistently votes was raised on the idea that all cops are heroes and to be praised without learning how to criticize.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
N78lo9b.png


This.

BLM was a big problem for Dems in 2016.

Democrats need to figure out how to convey their positions on things better here.
I don't know. "You shouldn't be murdered in the street by police just because you have brown skin" conveys the position pretty well IMO
 
Great admiration for Schumer and Pelosi, but how much of democratic unity just comes down to the fact that anyone who might have acted out simply got their seat flipped red last year?
Ten Democratic Senators are up for reelection next year in states that Trump won. Five in states that Romney won.

Murphy's blog is great. I wish he'd say what McCain said to him.
 

RDreamer

Member
We know Obama's support in the midwest dropped when people realized he supported civil rights activists.

Or I guess another way to put it: The largest voter-base in the country that consistently votes was raised on the idea that all cops are heroes and to be praised without learning how to criticize.

Or to put it the actual way: The largest voter-base in the country that consistently votes was raised to be racist.

I know these people. I've been around these sorts of people all my goddamned life. They have no problem criticizing the police. They have no problem bitching to high hell when the police are harassing them. You guys should hear my dad talk about them. They're overpaid, money grubbing, just want to pull people over for stupid stuff, etc. He's on the village board there and constantly fights with them to try and cut budgets. He hates unions. They all hate unions, even police unions.

But all that goes away when black people have a problem with them. My dad has his "we back the badge" sign and blue lives matter flag. I've seen him complain about the same shit BLM complains about with regard to police harassment and yet when black people are involved it's "Oh then don't do the crime."
 
I'd have to see the details of the Airline and Finance changes, but ouch at the Capital Gains tax cut.

That needs to be treated as regular income, with some type of fee that discourages (basically greatly reduces second/minute trading) but does not eliminate day trading.



Yeah, the ones that actually stand up for justice, against the "blue wall of silence" are few and far between, and then basically ousted for their actions.
wasn't putting a stance on it either way (I tend to think most of Carter's domestic non-energy accomplishments weren't good), just saying that he couldn't accomplish anything isn't really correct, especially given only having one term (and two massive crises between stagflation and the energy crisis)
 

kirblar

Member
wasn't putting a stance on it either way (I tend to think most of Carter's domestic non-energy accomplishments weren't good), just saying that he couldn't accomplish anything isn't really correct, especially given only having one term (and two massive crises between stagflation and the energy crisis)
He couldn't accomplish any important policy goals of the left/liberal wing is what's meant by this. He accomplished "stuff", but not stuff democrats really wanted to get out of massive majorities in both houses.
 
*puts this in the thread then runs*

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...p_and_why_obama_voters_defected_to_trump.html

It has been more than seven months since less than a plurality of Americans put Donald Trump into the White House, and we are still grappling with how it happened.* How should we understand the forces that gave Trump the election? A new data set moves us closer to an answer: in particular how to understand the voters who supported Barack Obama in 2012 only to back Trump in 2016. Its lessons have far-ranging implications not only for diagnosing Trump's specific appeal but for whether such an appeal would hold in 2020.

Two reports from the Voter Study Group, which conducted the survey, give a detailed look at these vote switchers. (You can learn more about the nonprofit survey here—what's key is that its longitudinal nature allows researchers to draw deeper conclusions on the issues that motivated voters.) One, from George Washington University political scientist John Sides, looks at racial, religious, and cultural divides and how they shaped the 2016 election. The other, from political scientist Lee Drutman, takes a detailed look at those divides and places them in the context of the Democratic and Republican parties. Starting in different places, both Sides and Drutman conclude that questions of race, religion, and American identity were critical to the 2016 outcome, especially among Obama-to-Trump voters. That's no surprise. What's interesting is what the importance of identity says about Donald Trump's campaign. Put simply, we tend to think that Trump succeeded despite his disorganized and haphazard campaign. But the Voter Study results indicate that Trump was a canny entrepreneur who perceived a need in the political marketplace and met it.

Whether or not they identified with a party, most people who voted in the 2016 election were partisans. ”Approximately 83 percent of voters were ‘consistent partisans,' " writes Sides. In other words, they voted for the same major party in both 2012 and 2016. This is the typical case. But about 9 percent of Donald Trump's voters had backed Obama in the previous election, equivalent to roughly 4 percent of the electorate. Why? The popular answer, or at least the current conventional wisdom, is economic dislocation. But Sides is skeptical. He concludes that economic issues mattered, but no more or less than they did in the 2012 election. The same goes for views on entitlement programs, on trade, and on the state of the economy in general. The weight of those issues on vote choice was constant between the two election years.

What changed was the importance of identity. Attitudes toward immigration, toward black Americans, and toward Muslims were more correlated with voting Republican in 2016 than in 2012. Put a little differently, Barack Obama won re-election with the support of voters who held negative views toward blacks, Muslims, and immigrants. Sides notes that ”37 percent of white Obama voters had a less favorable attitude toward Muslims" while 33 percent said ”illegal immigrants" were ”mostly a drain." A separate analysis from political scientists Sam Popkin and Doug Rivers (and unrelated to the Voter Study Group) finds that 20 to 25 percent of white voters who oppose interracial dating—a decent enough proxy for racial prejudice—voted for Obama.* Not all of this occurred during the 2016 campaign—a number of white Obama voters shifted to the GOP in the years following his re-election. Nonetheless, writes Sides, ”the political consequences in 2016 were the same: a segment of white Democrats with less favorable attitudes toward these ethnic and religious minorities were potential or actual Trump voters."

What caused this shift in the salience of race and identity (beyond the election of a black man in 2008) and augured an increase in racial polarization? You might point to the explosion of protests against police violence between 2012 and 2016, and the emergence of Black Lives Matter, events that sharply polarized Americans along racial lines. And in the middle of 2015 arrived the Trump campaign, a racially demagogic movement that blamed America's perceived decline on immigrants, Muslims, and foreign leaders, and which had its roots in Donald Trump's effort to delegitimize Barack Obama as a noncitizen, or at least not native-born.

But the fact that Trump primed and activated racial views doesn't immediately mean those white Obama voters acted on them. Which brings us to Drutman's analysis of the Voter Study Group.

Drutman plots the electorate across two axes—one measuring economic views, the other measuring views on identity—to build a political typology with four categories: liberals, conservatives, libertarians, and populists. Liberals, the largest single group, hold left or left-leaning views on economics and identity. Libertarians, the smallest group, hold right-leaning views on economics but leftward beliefs on identity. Conservatives are third largest, with right-leaning views on both indices, while populists—the second largest group—are the inverse of libertarians, holding liberal economic views and conservative beliefs on identity.

Most populists, according to Drutman, were already Republican voters in the 2012 election, prizing their conservative views on identity over liberal economic policies. A minority, about 28 percent, backed Obama. But four years later, Clinton could only hold on to 6 in 10 of those populist voters who had voted for Obama. Most Democratic defectors were populists, and their views reflect it: They hold strong positive feelings toward Social Security and Medicare, like Obama voters, but are negative toward black people and Muslims, and see themselves as ”in decline."

This is a portrait of the most common Obama-to-Trump voter: a white American who wants government intervention in the economy but holds negative, even prejudiced, views toward racial, ethnic, and religious minorities. In 2012, these voters seemed to value economic liberalism over a white, Christian identity and backed Obama over Romney. By 2016, the reverse was true: Thanks to Trump's campaign, and the events of the preceding years, they valued that identity over economic assistance. In which case, you can draw an easy conclusion about the Clinton campaign—even accounting for factors like misogyny and James Comey's twin interventions, it failed to articulate an economic message strong enough to keep those populists in the fold and left them vulnerable to Trump's identity appeal. You could then make a firm case for the future: To win them back, you need liberal economic populism.

But there's another way to read the data. Usually, voters in the political crosscurrents, like Drutman's populists, have to prioritize one of their chief concerns. That's what happened in 2008 and 2012. Yes, they held negative views toward nonwhites and other groups, but neither John McCain nor Mitt Romney ran on explicit prejudice. Instead, it was a standard left vs. right ideological contest, and a substantial minority of populists sided with Obama because of the economy. That wasn't true of the race with Trump. He tied his racial demagoguery to a liberal-sounding economic message, activating racial resentment while promising jobs, entitlements, and assistance. When Hillary Clinton proposed a $600 billion infrastructure plan, he floated a $1 trillion one. When Clinton pledged help on health care, Trump did the same, promising a cheaper, better system. Untethered from the conservative movement, Trump had space to move left on the economy, and he did just that. For the first time in recent memory, populist voters didn't have to prioritize their values. They could choose liberal economic views and white identity, and they did.

This fact makes it difficult to post hypotheticals about the election. It's possible a more populist campaign would have prevented those Obama defections. But a Trump who blurs differences on economic policy is a Trump who might still win a decisive majority of those voters who want a welfare state for whites. In the context of 2016, that blend of racial antagonism and economic populism may have been decisive. (The other option, it should be said, is that with a more populist presidential campaign, Democrats might have activated lower-turnout liberal voters, thus making Obama-to-Trump voters irrelevant.)

The good news for Democrats—and the even better news for the populist left—is that unless Trump makes a swift break with the Republican Party, his combined economic and identity-based appeal was a one-time affair. In 2020, if he runs for re-election, Trump will just be a Republican, and while he's certain to prime racial resentment, he'll also have a conservative economic record to defend. In other words, it will be harder to muddy the waters. And if it's harder to muddy the waters, then it's easier for Democrats—and especially a Democratic populist—to draw the distinctions that win votes.
 
He couldn't accomplish any important policy goals of the left/liberal wing is what's meant by this. He accomplished "stuff", but not stuff democrats really wanted to get out of massive majorities in both houses.
I mean all of this applies substantially more to Clinton but Clinton's certainly not pegged as someone who didn't accomplish anything.
 

Holmes

Member
"What happened to the old days when people came into this country and they worked, and they worked, and they worked, and they had families, and they paid taxes, and they did all sorts of things, and their families got stronger, and they were closely knit - we don't see that"

All immigrants now are lawless, culture-less scum, I suppose
lmao all I used to do was work, and I've just been rewarded with a great paying job nearby, great benefits, hours and pay. And I know undocumented immigrants that work harder than I do and get much less to show for it! It's really sad.
 
We know Obama's support in the midwest dropped when people realized he supported civil rights activists.

Or I guess another way to put it: The largest voter-base in the country that consistently votes was raised on the idea that all cops are heroes and to be praised without learning how to criticize.

I don't know. "You shouldn't be murdered in the street by police just because you have brown skin" conveys the position pretty well IMO

Racists aren't going to change. Stop chasing after them

Democrats have a right but losing position on law enforcement at the moment. Plain and simple.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
The part about the bullshit populist economics not working again is so, so important.

It worked the first time because Trump is a lying conman with no real record, so people could just take him at his word when he said he'd do it. Basically he won because he's a racist and a liar, but we all already knew that.
 
You know what's funny about McCain?

When he was diagnosed, you had such warm words of encouragement from Obama and Hilary and Joe Biden and other Dems about how he was going to give cancer hell, about how strong he was, about how people would miss him while he was away.

Then you had the GOP, cravenly sneaking back to McCain in his hospital bed saying "Come back old man. We need one more time. Get out of your bed, we'll drive you to DC if we have to."

I would imagine if I was put into that position, I would really start taking a hard look at who my real friends were, or just even who were actually decent people.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Regarding that article:

I'm going to use acronyms for Social/Economic/Liberal/Conservative.

Trump ran as a SC/EL (though, is governing as a SC/EC), basically making his re-election very difficult.
He took racism and combined it with liberal economic policies and a good chunk of voters no longer had to choose between them. Why they believed him is still unknown, I suspect it was willful ignorance since he was saying all of those things they wanted to hear about immigrants, the police, etc. His policies were vague enough that both the SC/EC and SC/EL voters could read into it what they wanted.

Those voters, when tasked with choosing between a SC/EL canidate and a SL/EL canidate will choose the later.
Going after these voters is therefor a fools errand, and it's why you see so many on the far left advocating for a reduction or elimination of "Identity Politics" since it's the only way to appeal to those voters in such a hypothetical.

The biggest issue facing Democrats (other than 2018) will probably not be 2020, but 2024. The GOP is fucked whether Trump makes it to 2020 or not. So the question should be how to deal with another canidate like Trump, or a canidate that is actually SC/EL will be a challenge. At such a point, it becomes a question whether those who are SC/EC will still get out and vote for a SC/EL or if they can swindle a group of voters again so soon like Trump did.

Anyways, that's my current take on presidential elections moving forward.
 
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