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[pigeon]

I don't buy it. In a non-gerrymandered house and a Senate map that was maxed out, Dems could do it by muscle memory.

But in these times and this map, I don't think we can afford to sleepwalk through this. Certainly not when the stakes are this high.

Oh, sure. I don't think we should do it. 70% is not good enough odds.

But that's not the same thing as saying I don't think she's mostly correct. Hillary almost won! There's literally no room for Trump to underperform his 2016 levels and still win the presidency. And he's probably going to underperform his 2016 levels because he sucks, the GOP spent most of this year fighting for a super unpopular policy they then failed to pass, and also they're all traitors.

We should work on evolving and doing better, but we should also be conscious of the reality of the election. This wasn't a blowout. Hillary nearly won, and she also outperformed almost every Democratic Senator and Representative candidate in doing so, so it's not like everybody else was running a way better strategy.

 

[whyamihere]

Oh, sure. I don't think we should do it. 70% is not good enough odds.

But that's not the same thing as saying I don't think she's mostly correct. Hillary almost won! There's literally no room for Trump to underperform his 2016 levels and still win the presidency. And he's probably going to underperform his 2016 levels because he sucks, the GOP spent most of this year fighting for a super unpopular policy they then failed to pass, and also they're all traitors.

We should work on evolving and doing better, but we should also be conscious of the reality of the election. This wasn't a blowout. Hillary nearly won, and she also outperformed almost every Democratic Senator and Representative candidate in doing so, so it's not like everybody else was running a way better strategy.

I just posted numbers to prove this.

 

[jtb]

Oh, sure. I don't think we should do it. 70% is not good enough odds.

But that's not the same thing as saying I don't think she's mostly correct. Hillary almost won! There's literally no room for Trump to underperform his 2016 levels and still win the presidency. And he's probably going to underperform his 2016 levels because he sucks, the GOP spent most of this year fighting for a super unpopular policy they then failed to pass, and also they're all traitors.

We should work on evolving and doing better, but we should also be conscious of the reality of the election. This wasn't a blowout. Hillary nearly won, and she also outperformed almost every Democratic Senator and Representative candidate in doing so, so it's not like everybody else was running a way better strategy.

True, though 2020 is a different story from 2018. I have much more faith in Dems ability to fuck up and still win in 2020.

But we know Dems don't turn out in midterms + gerrymandering + maxed out senate map, etc. etc. So I think 2018 is a significantly steeper degree of difficulty, without the assist of a presidential challenger to cohere things like 'party messaging'.

It's significantly easier for Hillary to win the presidency than it is for Dems to win the house. (The blue wall wasn't a total myth!) After all, Trump won more house districts than Clinton did, even with the realignment in the suburbs and sun belt.

 

[kirblar]

Oh, sure. I don't think we should do it. 70% is not good enough odds.

But that's not the same thing as saying I don't think she's mostly correct. Hillary almost won! There's literally no room for Trump to underperform his 2016 levels and still win the presidency. And he's probably going to underperform his 2016 levels because he sucks, the GOP spent most of this year fighting for a super unpopular policy they then failed to pass, and also they're all traitors.

We should work on evolving and doing better, but we should also be conscious of the reality of the election. This wasn't a blowout. Hillary nearly won, and she also outperformed almost every Democratic Senator and Representative candidate in doing so, so it's not like everybody else was running a way better strategy.

"If Hillary is how we do with a bad candidate...." is where I've been at for a while. (I don't think we had a "good" one in 2016 thanks to Hillary dissuading anyone from making an internal attempt)

 

[jtb]

(What if Hillary wasn't a bad candidate...)

 

[Ogodei]

The institution of slavery itself was the primary cause of the civil war. The southern states violated the Missouri Compromise when they tried to expand slavery to new territories in the west and every major presidential candidate dedicated a significant amount of their campaign laying out their plans for slavery/secession. The "slave question" dominated all of national politics before states actually started seceding.

Meant to say "in addition to" in my post, you're right.

 

[whyamihere]

(What if Hillary wasn't a bad candidate...)

you can't unwet water

 

[LoftyTheMetroid]

Woah... A guy I went to school with is running for Congress! http://cortforcongress.com/

I remember being envious of his holographic Charizard card in the 4th grade... crazy how times change. I also remember him having a very visible and heated debate/argument with our high school's AP History teacher. (That teacher ended up being a Trump supporter, which makes sense in retrospect, lol)

Anyway, hope he does well! Anything to help make Missouri more blue!

 

[jtb]

you can't unwet water

let me rephrase slightly

hot take: hillary was not a bad candidate

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

let me rephrase slightly

hot take: hillary was not a bad candidate

It's a too late for this. She lost and we need to move on.

 

[jtb]

It's a too late for this. She lost and we need to move on.

My point is that I'm a little more pessimistic on how low the Dems' floor is, so we may need to work harder than we think in 2018 to flip the house.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

My point is that I'm a little more pessimistic on how low the Dems' floor is, so we may need to work harder than we think in 2018 to flip the house.

No shit. We need to work on getting seats flip to blue.

 

[Barzul]

Rand Paul says Trump is going to issue an Executive Order on healthcare to let trade groups like the Chamber of Commerce and AARPP negotiate for their own insurance.

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...will-to-take-action-on-trade-groups-insurance

 

[PBY]

Is there a chance that the D 2020 candidate isn't running against Trump? BC I think thats fairly likely.

 

[Slizeezyc]

The only thing they've ever done that I've enjoyed was their partial dramatic reading of Ben Shapiro's shit-tier novel.

But man, it was a pretty good dramatic reading (also I don't disagree).

 

[UberTag]

Is there a chance that the D 2020 candidate isn't running against Trump? BC I think thats fairly likely.

Does he have to return his 2020 campaign donations in that event or is he able to freely spend those on his lawyers?

 

[RustyNails]

The smell of sweet Oppo. I missed how good it tasted.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

But man, it was a pretty good dramatic reading (also I don't disagree).

I wish they'd done a Glenn Beck one, too. I saw one one time in a bookstore and read the back and was like "holy shit I'm so curious." But obviously I'm not giving him money, sadly they just have that partial Ben Shapiro one.

And yeah it's great.

 

[Teggy]

Lolol

 

[Prof. Bathtub]

Where's Max Headroom when you need him to hijack the feed and send an infuriating critique via Fox & Friends.

 

[SpaceCadetKeon]

Lolol

Same day too, holy shit. I can't.

 

[Suikoguy]

Lolol

Oh FFS Federalist have some dignity.
Also, both written by a David.

 

[Drkirby]

Rand Paul says Trump is going to issue an Executive Order on healthcare to let trade groups like the Chamber of Commerce and AARPP negotiate for their own insurance.

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...will-to-take-action-on-trade-groups-insurance

“Can you imagine the leverage you would get for drug prices and insurance prices if you were negotiating for 5 million people?”

Can you imagine the leverage if you were negotiating for 300 Million?

 

[Vixdean]

“Can you imagine the leverage you would get for drug prices and insurance prices if you were negotiating for 5 million people?”

Can you imagine the leverage if you were negotiating for 300 Million?

Yeah, but if the government does it, that's tyranny!

 

[JettDash]

Rand Paul says Trump is going to issue an Executive Order on healthcare to let trade groups like the Chamber of Commerce and AARPP negotiate for their own insurance.

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...will-to-take-action-on-trade-groups-insurance

I think this is a good idea.

 

[adamsappel]

See - this is where we diverge. Its not bullshit. There is a sect of the Ukraine army that are Nazis. Its a fact. You can disagree as to their significance or relative importance in this discussion - but its a reality.

You are aware there are (neo-) Nazis in US armed forces, yes? Should we stop providing weapons to everyone in our military?

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

So this has been making the rounds of Facebook but I thought I'd share it for anyone here that hasn't seen it.

Super Deluxe took Alex Jones rants and turned them into an indie folk song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWd6XgBVIcg

 

[~Kinggi~]

So this has been making the rounds of Facebook but I thought I'd share it for anyone here that hasn't seen it.

Super Deluxe took Alex Jones rants and turned them into an indie folk song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWd6XgBVIcg

Yep thats a bonified viral success for super deluxe.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Yep thats a bonified viral success for super deluxe.

It's kind of unfortunately catchy.

Like at work yesterday I caught myself singing "Hillary's into creepy weird sick stuff, man" and I was like well, shit.

 

[Barzul]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/31/politics/white-house-officials-tricked-by-email-prankster/index.html

So apparently a prankster pretended to be different members of the Trump White House/Sphere and got actual responses from them. This is hilarious and shows that Republicans are just as susceptible to spearphishing. If a prankster could do this, imagine what the Russia has.

 

[Dan]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/31/politics/white-house-officials-tricked-by-email-prankster/index.html

So apparently a prankster pretended to be different members of the Trump White House/Sphere and got actual responses from them. This is hilarious and shows that Republicans are just as susceptible to spearphishing. If a prankster could do this, imagine what the Russia has.

These people are so dumb.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/31/politics/white-house-officials-tricked-by-email-prankster/index.html

So apparently a prankster pretended to be different members of the Trump White House/Sphere and got actual responses from them. This is hilarious and shows that Republicans are just as susceptible to spearphishing. If a prankster could do this, imagine what the Russia has.

Lol damn he's good.

 

[pigeon]

You are aware there are (neo-) Nazis in US armed forces, yes? Should we stop providing weapons to everyone in our military?

...go on

 

[Dan]

Corey Lewandowski Has Been Fired From The One America News Network

This guy has real trouble keeping a job.

 

[Slayven]

Is Jeff Flakes the first of many or a lone wolf?

 

[shem935]

Is Jeff Flakes the first of many or a lone wolf?

In terms of people saying they should be more critical of trump, I would rank him as not even the first, McCain grimaced long before flake.

 

[jtb]

Is Jeff Flakes the first of many or a lone wolf?

A lone wolf. He's already a never-trumper so he's not going out on a limb here, and he's vulnerable next year. Heller's already thrown in the towel.

It's just theater driven by fear that Trump will bury him.

 

[Blader]

Is Jeff Flakes the first of many or a lone wolf?

He and Ben Sasse and Lindsay Graham will continue to voice their concern about Trump's presidency and its long-term harm on the country while dutifully giving him everything he wants.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Is Jeff Flakes the first of many or a lone wolf?

He's got a race coming up soon so it's not clear. When someone who isn't trying to save their skin defects, we could retroactively say Flake was the initial drip.

 

[NihonTiger90]

Is Jeff Flakes the first of many or a lone wolf?

A lone wolf who knows he's in trouble in 2018.

 

[jtb]

For as long as Trump's policy agenda is driven by the GOP, and not the other way around, the party will never turn on Trump. The party needs Trump - because the base is much more closely aligned with Trump than a generic GOP congressperson - more than Trump needs the party.

And since Trump has no ideological leanings whatsoever and will never develop any (outside of racism, which he shares with the GOP), that dynamic will never flip.

 

[Suikoguy]

He's got a race coming up soon so it's not clear. When someone who isn't trying to save their skin defects, we could retroactively say Flake was the initial drip.

I've been expecting some defections, if only to save their own ass, any time now.
Collins and Murkowski are the first two to consistently stand up to Trump. So technically they are the first two "defections". By demonizing them, Trump also created a situation where they now have less incentive to continue to cooperate.

McCain did too, but I don't honestly know what he plans to do long-term. And frankly, he should be focused on spending time with his family and playing the long-odds on his cancer.

The issue with Flake is he is one of the most conservative candidates in the Senate, but he could still vote against some issues he complained about. If he does, then expect that to be the framework for the ultra-conservative wing of the party to follow. For example, not approving unqualified appointments, voting against getting rid of the filibuster, demanding more regular decorum, and the real test, voting for any type of action against Trump.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Corey Lewandowski Has Been Fired From The One America News Network

This guy has real trouble keeping a job.

I hear there is an opening in the WH

Spoiler

I just existentially threw up suggesting that

 

[Slayven]

I hear there is an opening in the WH

Spoiler

I just existentially threw up suggesting that

I thought he had a spot there?

 

[Ether_Snake]

I just realized.

Kelly is now the most powerful person in the administration. Imagine if he quit next week.

Spoiler

Maybe this is actually a purge and Trump and Bannon are going to get rid of all generals by appointing them to posts' they'll quit from or be fired from soon after.

 

[Dan]

I thought he had a spot there?

He's just an informal advisor, I believe.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

I just realized.

Kelly is now the most powerful person in the administration. Imagine if he quit next week.

Spoiler

Maybe this is actually a purge and Trump and Bannon are going to get rid of all generals by appointing them to posts' they'll quit from or be fired from soon after.

I dunno, judging by the briefing today McMaster might've started drinking the kool-aid.

 

[Ourobolus]

I dunno, judging by the briefing today McMaster might've started drinking the kool-aid.

Might've? He was terrible with his first presser

 

[Chichikov]

Is Jeff Flakes the first of many or a lone wolf?

It's all about getting re-elected.
Most Republicans believe that going against Trump is going to hurt them more than supporting him, if they stop believing that, they'll go against him.
So my guess is that he won't be the last one, but I doubt we'll see something really organized unless Trump favorability drops to unprecedented levels.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Might've? He was terrible with his first presser

Today's was the first presser I've seen him in.