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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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N

neurosisxeno

Member
ErasureAcer said:
Stock market helps the rich. It does very little for the poor fools working for a living.
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Except that a lot of working/middle class American's invest in their 401k's and regularly borrow against their 401k's or close them out if they need money in a pinch. When the market crashes the poorest among us are the ones who tend to suffer the most--they are victims of reactionary layoffs from companies and although I haven't looked into it for concrete data, I would not be surprised if a majority of the jobs lost following a market crash are from the bottom half of earners.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Does Patrick really offer anything as a candidate that Booker doesn't already? Both are more politically centrist, cozy with corporations/finance, but Booker is younger and has better name recognition. Not really sure what Patrick offers as a candidate that Booker doesn't, and they share the same weaknesses.
 
B

Blader

Member
PBY said:
edit: I work in PE, I can think of a lot of reasons why someone would work for Bain.
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I'm not saying anything bad about the work Deval does at Bain or questioning his motives for why he'd want to join the company. But after Obama and his team spent months, if not a year, attacking Romney for his time at Bain, the optics around that name association -- for any reason -- should be enough to disqualify anyone from running.

Deval jokes in the Politico interview that it took him a couple days to work out the terms for joining Bain, but 2.5 weeks to figure out how to announce it. He'd have the same problem in a presidential campaign, and if the explanation for why it's actually fine he's at Bain and how he's doing good work has to be long and torturous, then it's never going to break through. Not unlike how there were long, torturous explanations for why Hillary's private email server was not some outrageous thing, and yet nothing past EMAILS landed with the public.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Does Patrick really offer anything as a candidate that Booker doesn't already? Both are more politically centrist, cozy with corporations/finance, but Booker is younger and has better name recognition. Not really sure what Patrick offers as a candidate that Booker doesn't, and they share the same weaknesses.
Click to expand...

Patrick has all the charisma that Booker lacks. That's about it. I like Patrick a lot.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Blader said:
I'm not saying anything bad about the work Deval does at Bain or questioning his motives for why he'd want to join the company. But after Obama and his team spent months, if not a year, attacking Romney for his time at Bain, the optics around that name association -- for any reason -- should be enough to disqualify anyone from running.

Deval jokes in the Politico interview that it took him a couple days to work out the terms for joining Bain, but 2.5 weeks to figure out how to announce it. He'd have the same problem in a presidential campaign, and if the explanation for why it's actually fine he's at Bain and how he's doing good work has to be long and torturous, then it's never going to break through. Not unlike how there were long, torturous explanations for why Hillary's private email server was not some outrageous thing, and yet nothing past EMAILS landed with the public.
Click to expand...

Oh, don't get me wrong. Its the kiss of death and it should be. Especially if the D platform is concerned about corporate consolidation.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Does Patrick really offer anything as a candidate that Booker doesn't already? Both are more politically centrist, cozy with corporations/finance, but Booker is younger and has better name recognition. Not really sure what Patrick offers as a candidate that Booker doesn't, and they share the same weaknesses.
Click to expand...

Booker is better just by the fact that he's actually out there fighting the Trump administration. People really care about that stuff these days (hell, I care about it too). I'm not a fan of Booker at all, but his Senate floor speech the night of the GOP health care vote was really good and has been making rounds on social media. What has Patrick been doing besides making bank at Bain Capital?
 
J

jtb

Banned
Markey and Warren are both old. Patrick would never have taken that Bain job if he had aspirations of being the next President - even if it is very targeted towards social entrepreneurship. More likely he'll be waiting in the wings as a break-glass-in-case-of-Martha-Coakley candidate for Senate if anything.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Poodlestrike said:
In the event that we're looking at a binary between "launch preemptive attack" and "watch while they nuke San Fran in three days," I could get behind it yeah.

Not that I trust this administration to make that call, mind you.
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That isn't a real binary though
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
PBY said:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/sen-lindsey-graham-trump-says-war-north-korea-option-n788396

Sen. Lindsey Graham: Trump Says War With North Korea an Option


fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu
Click to expand...

An american city will be nuked because of these idiots. I just hope I'm not dead during this presidency


Poodlestrike said:
In the event that we're looking at a binary between "launch preemptive attack" and "watch while they nuke San Fran in three days," I could get behind it yeah.

Not that I trust this administration to make that call, mind you.
Click to expand...

There is no real reason to believe they can't nuke San Francisco now.

They've launched ICMBs that have that range. Its here. There's no way to know for certain that they don't have an ICMB ready to retaliate.

North Korea is a nuclear power and the assumption needs to be that they can hit the US today.

Any attack risks US lives and an attack on the mainland. People need to stop pretending this is in the future.

And people need to stop pretending that the generals will stop this. They believe Nuclear War in winnable. They're just as insane.
 
Emerson

Emerson

May contain jokes =>
PBY said:
That isn't a real binary though
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Theoretically it could be. We honestly can't rule out that maniac launching a nuke at us once he has the capability. It seems incredibly unlikely, but it could happen.

If you're the president and you get solid intel he plans to do that, what do you do? I don't know what I'd do, but I for damn sure know I don't trust Donald "The Human Refuse Heap" Trump to decide.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
There's quite a lot of steps between "Senator Graham says a war would be okay" and "California is in the ocean from nukes" and many points on the road from point A to point Z where things can be de-escalated.
 
D

Deleted member 1159

Unconfirmed Member
Poodlestrike said:
In the event that we're looking at a binary between "launch preemptive attack" and "watch while they nuke San Fran in three days," I could get behind it yeah.

Not that I trust this administration to make that call, mind you.
Click to expand...

North Korea knows using nukes is suicide. Us preemptively striking them is what would cause them to use them, they won't do it first

That being said, having a state department in shambles and no ambassador to SK isn't helping this situation.
 
B

Blader

Member
jtb said:
Markey and Warren are both old. Patrick would never have taken that Bain job if he had aspirations of being the next President - even if it is very targeted towards social entrepreneurship. More likely he'll be waiting in the wings as a break-glass-in-case-of-Martha-Coakley candidate for Senate if anything.
Click to expand...

I don't think Deval ran for Senate because he doesn't want to be a career politician. So in that sense, I could see a presidential campaign -- where, if he wins, he's out in 4-8 years -- more in the cards for him than a Senate run. But if he actually does launch a bid in 2020, I think it would have been awfully short-sighted and foolish for him to have joined Bain, and it would sink his primary chances imo.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
B-Dubs said:
On the bright side, North Korea can't reach anything past Chicago so we're good.
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They're theoretical range means they can hit NY. I'm not taking that chance.

And any ICMB launch that near to Russia risks Russia/China misinterpreting it and firing their ICMBs.

Its a no win and we'll all likely die or live under a rather fascist type government.

You think that post-nuclear war we'd go back to normal democracy?

Poodlestrike said:
North Korea is not an entirely rational actor. That's rather why everyone's scared shitless of them.
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Nothing they have done is irrational in regards to their Nuclear Program. Its entirely rational. They want to prevent the US from acting by credibly threatening unacceptable losses for the US.


Also want to worry?

You know how there's a tweet for everything.

Well here's the last one well all be posting about

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/464251796354269184

@realDonaldTrump
The global warming we should be worried about is the global warming caused by NUCLEAR WEAPONS in the hands of crazy or incompetent leaders!
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Teggy said:
Now I'm getting scared trump is just going to ride the Obama economy into a second term. Someone talk me down.
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The election is three and a half years away

If the economy is as it is now in 3.5 years, it's pretty hard to give Obama credit. Trump would have had done something right in that time to keep up the movement.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
There is no real reason to believe they can't nuke San Francisco now.

They've launched ICMBs that have that range. Its here. There's no way to know for certain that they don't have an ICMB ready to retaliate.

North Korea is a nuclear power and the assumption needs to be that they can hit the US today.

Any attack risks US lives and an attack on the mainland. People need to stop pretending this is in the future.

And people need to stop pretending that the generals will stop this. They believe Nuclear War in winnable. They're just as insane.
Click to expand...

Missed this before, but the scenario I was envisaging was that we have direct actionable intelligence that such an attack will happen, not that it can.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Poodlestrike said:
Missed this before, but the scenario I was envisaging was that we have direct actionable intelligence that such an attack will happen, not that it can.
Click to expand...

My point is that such a hypothetical doesn't really add much to this discussion because (1) it isn't realistic, and (2) if it somehow came to pass, there's only one real course of action anyways, so not sure what value there is in dissecting it.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
The election is three and a half years away

If the economy is as it is now in 3.5 years, it's pretty hard to give Obama credit. Trump would have had done something right in that time to keep up the movement.
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Not true. The economy doesn't turn on a dime, it's years-long business cycles. It took several years for it to normalize after 2008, a fact that the GOP was pushing in 2012.

Further, legislative gridlock does pretty good things for the stock market.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
PBY said:
My point is that such a hypothetical doesn't really add much to this discussion because (1) it isn't realistic, and (2) if it somehow came to pass, there's only one real course of action anyways, so not sure what value there is in dissecting it.
Click to expand...

The question was "is this popular with anyone," the original statement being that war with NK is a possibility. I was supplying the context through which that possibility might be made popular.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Poodlestrike said:
Missed this before, but the scenario I was envisaging was that we have direct actionable intelligence that such an attack will happen, not that it can.
Click to expand...

This is a stupid hypothetical that never happens in the real world. Stop pretending movies are real. Actionable intelligence is grades of probability.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Only the Fake News Media and Trump enemies want me to stop using Social Media (110 million people). Only way for me to get the truth out!
9:55 AM · Aug 1, 2017

(he only has 34 million followers)

(Obama had 92 million)
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Ignatz Mouse said:
Not true. The economy doesn't turn on a dime, it's years-long business cycles. It took several years for it to normalize after 2008, a fact that the GOP was pushing in 2012.

Further, legislative gridlock does pretty good things for the stock market.
Click to expand...

heh, this reminded me that Trump has twice now pushed for things that would crash the economy almost instantly. The skinny repeal of the ACA and an exit from NAFTA.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Blader said:
I don't think Deval ran for Senate because he doesn't want to be a career politician. So in that sense, I could see a presidential campaign -- where, if he wins, he's out in 4-8 years -- more in the cards for him than a Senate run. But if he actually does launch a bid in 2020, I think it would have been awfully short-sighted and foolish for him to have joined Bain, and it would sink his primary chances imo.
Click to expand...

I agree. And this is one of Patrick's biggest appeals. He has a genuine interest in public service, and he's a really nice guy who doesn't come across as craven for power or empty photo-ops (cough cory booker cough).

He could run as a moderate, but that's not really his ideological leaning anyways. I think you're right: he's done it all in public service and so now he wants to try his hand at solving social problems in a different way. I genuinely believe he's at Bain for the right reasons.

the Cory Booker-Deval Patrick comparison is so facile and infantilizing, it's almost offensive.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
This is a stupid hypothetical that never happens in the real world. Stop pretending movies are real. Actionable intelligence is grades of probability.
Click to expand...

That's... almost exactly how it works, though. We find out before stuff happens all the time, having uncertainty doesn't change that. It's why those stupid laptop rules went into effect; I'm suggesting that, writ large, would be a perfectly good reason to launch an attack on NK.
 
E

Ernest

Banned
I'm dead!

dQuhtES.gif


Whoever is making these needs to win a Pulitzer, or something.
 
R

RumbleHumble

Banned
Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Only the Fake News Media and Trump enemies want me to stop using Social Media (110 million people). Only way for me to get the truth out!
9:55 AM · Aug 1, 2017

(he only has 34 million followers)

(Obama had 92 million)
Click to expand...

Kelly's trying to take his phone away.
 
D

Deleted member 1159

Unconfirmed Member
Poodlestrike said:
North Korea is not an entirely rational actor. That's rather why everyone's scared shitless of them.
Click to expand...

Despite their sadistic totalitarian 1984 state, they're acting pretty damn rationally in getting nukes. They see the US as the aggressor, and they don't want to die. They know if they can wipe out Seoul or an American city then our hands are pretty much tied. Hence, they get the ability to do that as quickly as possible.

And they see us doing military drills and know it's fucking curtains for them if they strike first
 
R

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Only the Fake News Media and Trump enemies want me to stop using Social Media (110 million people). Only way for me to get the truth out!
9:55 AM · Aug 1, 2017

(he only has 34 million followers)

(Obama had 92 million)
Click to expand...
How many does he have on face book?
Potus twitter?
 
J

jtb

Banned
Blader said:
I don't think Deval ran for Senate because he doesn't want to be a career politician. So in that sense, I could see a presidential campaign -- where, if he wins, he's out in 4-8 years -- more in the cards for him than a Senate run. But if he actually does launch a bid in 2020, I think it would have been awfully short-sighted and foolish for him to have joined Bain, and it would sink his primary chances imo.
Click to expand...

Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Only the Fake News Media and Trump enemies want me to stop using Social Media (110 million people). Only way for me to get the truth out!
9:55 AM · Aug 1, 2017

(he only has 34 million followers)

(Obama had 92 million)
Click to expand...

Facebook
 
S

ShadowSwordmaster

Banned
Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Only the Fake News Media and Trump enemies want me to stop using Social Media (110 million people). Only way for me to get the truth out!
9:55 AM · Aug 1, 2017

(he only has 34 million followers)

(Obama had 92 million)
Click to expand...

You're the President of the United States! You have people whose sole purpose is to get what you want into the public.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
We have a recession every ten years or so. One thing that worried me about Hillary winning was the prospect of a democrat being in office during the inevitable downturn. Student debt, housing bubble, China, etc etc.

Point being there's no guarantee things will continue being decent-to-good. And of course there's no guarantee Trump will even be president before 2019 ends.
 
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