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[GhaleonEB]

Can we turn something on its head?

It's quite common to talk about Obama's path to victory, usually involving Iowa, New Mexico and some other stuff; indeed, there's such a range of 'other stuff' that the breadth of options are quite hard to keep track of.

What if we turned it around? What are *McCain's* paths to victory, and how blockable are they by the Obama campaign? Perhaps it's easier to think of the situation in terms of Obama not losing? I'd guess that McCain's options are a bit fewer; just how many swing states does he need to cap?

McCain just needs to hold as many Bush states as possible. Specifically:

--He can't lose Ohio or Florida. If he does, it's likely over. Ditto Virginia.
--He's contesting Pennsylvania and Michigan heavily. Polls are showing both will be close.
--Try to limit Obama's smaller state pick ups, such as Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. He's not bothering to contest Montana or the Dakotas, where Obama is setting up a lot of offices and running up voter registrations (over 20 offices in North Dakota).

 

[Chiggs]

According to Gallup, McCain is now winning the majority of independents
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx

But someone in this thread told me McCain was polarizing people!

 

[Keylime]

How is winning 52% of the independents not winning the majority of the independents.


Not trying to act like a wiseguy, honest question. Don't see how you conclude that.


Edit: you sneaky bastard. Not is not the same as Now

Now vs. Not

Edit: FUCK! Must have updated it just as I hit quote! FUCKIDY SHIT!

 

[Souldriver]

Now vs. Not

Edit: FUCK! Must have updated it just as I hit quote! FUCKIDY SHIT!

That makes two of us.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Can we turn something on its head?

It's quite common to talk about Obama's path to victory, usually involving Iowa, New Mexico and some other stuff; indeed, there's such a range of 'other stuff' that the breadth of options are quite hard to keep track of.

What if we turned it around? What are *McCain's* paths to victory, and how blockable are they by the Obama campaign? Perhaps it's easier to think of the situation in terms of Obama not losing? I'd guess that McCain's options are a bit fewer; just how many swing states does he need to cap?

Let's start with one postulate, that he cannot win any Kerry states.

Given that, he'll start out with the Bush votes (286) and cannot lose any more than 16.

The swing states:

OH (20)
VA (13)
CO (9)
IA (7)
NM (5)
NV (5)

Knock yourself out with the combinatorics.

 

[Diablos]

Now vs. Not

Edit: FUCK! Must have updated it just as I hit quote! FUCKIDY SHIT!

I made a typo you bastards

 

[speculawyer]

What's on monday? 9-11 is coming up and the Republicans will use it to their full advantage.

It is 9/11 . . . . do you know where Osama is?

How about Al-Zawahari?

OK, so we caught Ron Jeremy . . . but you've made prosecuting him into a disaster because you tortured him.


And tell us . . . Why are we in Iraq?

 

[thefro]

Looks like the bounce has crested in Gallup.

 

[mckmas8808]

McCain is finally having rallieswith 10,000 people showing up. His campaign now says 5,000 is the minimum when it used to be 1,000 people.

But here's the thing. Sarah will leave John's side next week and have her own rallies.

Who will the REPs go and see next week? What happens if more people are going out to see Sarah Palin than are showing up to see McCain? What would that mean for the election?

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Looks like the bounce has crested in Gallup.

My trade funds need to get through quickly

 

[CharlieDigital]

McCain is finally having rallieswith 10,000 people showing up. His campaign now says 5,000 is the minimum when it used to be 1,000 people.

But here's the thing. Sarah will leave John's side next week and have her own rallies.

Who will the REPs go and see next week? What happens if more people are going out to see Sarah Palin than are showing up to see McCain? What would that mean for the election?

It means nothing at this point (except that American's are exceptionally stupid when it comes to national policy and government).

 

[gcubed]

people need to relax... McCain will get a longer bounce then obama simply because he has nothing to compete with in the week following... the bounce looks like it has peaked now, and all these numbers will return to normal.

Pointing that McCain is winning with independents now is moot, and so is getting worked up about it. Obama has the VP pick and the convention on the heels of his convention, McCain had nothing. Also the fact that Gallup is also now the only regular pollster that has McCain at any kind of advantage is another reason to calm down. Rasmussen is what +1 or tied today, and every other poll besides the garbage +10 from yesterday has them around the same.

 

[Diablos]

 

[Stoney Mason]

Can we turn something on its head?

It's quite common to talk about Obama's path to victory, usually involving Iowa, New Mexico and some other stuff; indeed, there's such a range of 'other stuff' that the breadth of options are quite hard to keep track of.

What if we turned it around? What are *McCain's* paths to victory, and how blockable are they by the Obama campaign? Perhaps it's easier to think of the situation in terms of Obama not losing? I'd guess that McCain's options are a bit fewer; just how many swing states does he need to cap?

The reason people always talk about Obama's path is because people generally start from the tipping point of the last election.

Here is the electoral map today.

The count is Obama: 281 Mccain:230 Tied:27

The tie is florida but most pundits really believe he will win flordia so let's make that

Obama:281 Mccain:257

The election sits right now on the Rep states that Obama has turned from the last election which are:CO IA NV NM ND

Now the question becomes how real is it that these are Dem states.

ND seems suspect because of its history but it's only 3 votes anyway. Iowa seems pretty true Obama this year. So that leaves Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado and how you view those states...

Of course future maps bring future math. Where VA or OH might be in play although I have a hard time believing Obama will win VA.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

McCain is finally having rallieswith 10,000 people showing up. His campaign now says 5,000 is the minimum when it used to be 1,000 people.

But here's the thing. Sarah will leave John's side next week and have her own rallies.

Who will the REPs go and see next week? What happens if more people are going out to see Sarah Palin than are showing up to see McCain? What would that mean for the election?

I'd be surprised if they do split up. This is so much all about her. McCain would get totally overlooked if they ever split up.

 

[Chiggs]

Pointing that McCain is winning with independents now is moot, and so is getting worked up about it.

I wouldn't say it's moot. Not at all. Premature? Sure.

 

[gcubed]

and every time Ron Paul gets added to the ticket in a state, McCain loses points.

I wouldn't say it's moot. Not at all. Premature? Sure.

well, reacting to a post convention bounce is moot... there is no need for Obama to "wake up" or to "go negative" or to "start swiftboating" as everyone here wants him to. Its a bounce... meaning it rises, peaks, and falls back to normal.

 

[Diablos]

The trend in Presidential preferences of Independents pic is pretty interesting...

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'd be surprised if they do split up. This is so much all about her. McCain would get totally overlooked if they ever split up.

It's actually a small advantage right now, since Biden and Obama can both be campaigning right now. (And Hillary, per her two appearances in Florida yesterday.)

Right now it's The Palin Show (Featuring Special Guest John McCain)

 

[speculawyer]

and every time Ron Paul gets added to the ticket in a state, McCain loses points.

Ron Paul may return us to fiscal sanity, although not in the way he intended.

 

[CharlieDigital]

It's actually a small advantage right now, since Biden and Obama can both be campaigning right now. (And Hillary, per her two appearances in Florida yesterday.)

Is there video of this? Weren't were supposed to hear some harsh remarks from Hill on Palin?

 

[HylianTom]

Can we turn something on its head?

It's quite common to talk about Obama's path to victory, usually involving Iowa, New Mexico and some other stuff; indeed, there's such a range of 'other stuff' that the breadth of options are quite hard to keep track of.

What if we turned it around? What are *McCain's* paths to victory, and how blockable are they by the Obama campaign? Perhaps it's easier to think of the situation in terms of Obama not losing? I'd guess that McCain's options are a bit fewer; just how many swing states does he need to cap?

This is my Absolute Map. I think that, no matter what, these states will fall in this manner.

From this map, I start with an easy point: Florida is must-win for McCain. He loses here, it's all over.

Ohio is pretty much must-win for McCain. He can survive a loss, but he pretty much has to win everywhere else.

Stealing Michigan is McCain's Job #1. If he wins there, Obama's job gets a lot more difficult. I just don't see a scenario where Obama loses Michigan but wins in Florida, Ohio, or Virginia. Should Obama (as is ultimately expected) win Michigan, then McCain has to put-up defenses in almost all other states.

{And one key reminder: Obama only needs 269EVs. McCain needs to prevent him from reaching 260 and then slipping-in via the {NH + NV} or CO routes.}

 

[Steve Youngblood]

well, reacting to a post convention bounce is moot... there is no need for Obama to "wake up" or to "go negative" or to "start swiftboating" as everyone here wants him to. Its a bounce... meaning it rises, peaks, and falls back to normal.

Well, I mostly agree with you. I do, however, think that ads like the one they released about Palin are a good idea. It's silly for supporters and surrogates to whine about media complacency if they're not doing anything themselves to call out what is deemed to be hypocrisy. That of course does not mean that he needs to get desparate and throw the kitchen sink at McCain & Palin. Going overly negative always carries some risks, and it's way too early to think that such risks are necessary at this stage in the game.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Is there video of this? Weren't were supposed to hear some harsh remarks from Hill on Palin?

She didn't go after Palin.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/florida/sfl-flfclinton0909pnsep09,0,6044589.story

She had a good line though:

Clinton said entrusting the White House to McCain, after eight years of the Bush administration, was akin to "asking the iceberg to save the Titanic."

 

[Byakuya769]

Is there video of this? Weren't were supposed to hear some harsh remarks from Hill on Palin?

Did not even really mention her

 

[mckmas8808]

I'd be surprised if they do split up. This is so much all about her. McCain would get totally overlooked if they ever split up.

No they are splitting up next week. The campaign said it already.

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/vote2008/story?id=5755471&page=1

 

[Zeliard]

Not sure how McCain is now winning independents after picking someone as far from a centrist position as Palin.

 

[Stoney Mason]

This is my Absolute Map. I think that, no matter what, these states will fall in this manner.

From this map, I start with an easy point: Florida is must-win for McCain. He loses here, it's all over.

Ohio is pretty much must-win for McCain. He can survive a loss, but he pretty much has to win everywhere else.

Stealing Michigan is McCain's Job #1. If he wins there, Obama's job gets a lot more difficult. I just don't see a scenario where Obama loses Michigan but wins in Florida, Ohio, or Virginia. Should Obama (as is ultimately expected) win Michigan, then McCain has to put-up defenses in almost all other states.

{And one key reminder: Obama only needs 269EVs. McCain needs to prevent him from reaching 260 and then slipping-in via the {NH + NV} or CO routes.}

Good analysis although polling wise I think PA is more a toss-up than MI although I may have missed some polls and maybe Mccain thinks PA is tougher to win now because of Biden(?)

 

[Dolphin]

It's so depressing that close to half of the country would actually vote for McCain. It's like they're stuck on stupid.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Adam McKay continues his winning streak after Step Brothers:

We're Gonna Lose This Fricken Thing

 

[HylianTom]

Good analysis although polling wise I think PA is more a toss-up than MI although I may have missed some polls and maybe Mccain thinks PA is tougher to win now because of Biden(?)

I tipped PA into the blue column exactly for that reason; it's been narrowly but consistently in that column for a while. And if I were a betting man, I'd guess that FL, VA, and MT go red again.

 

[PhatSaqs]

It's so depressing that close to half of the country would actually vote for McCain. It's like they're stuck on stupid.

After Bush for two terms, nothing surprises me.

 

[Beer Monkey]

From Sept 30 to Oct. 6, college students in Ohio can register for the first time and vote on the same day.

If the Obama camp is seriously organized on the campuses, this can deliver a ton of votes here.

 

[Zeliard]

I tipped PA into the blue column exactly for that reason; it's been narrowly but consistently in that column for a while. And if I were a betting man, I'd guess that FL, VA, and MT go red again.

I don't know if I'd quite bet on Virginia to go either way. I think VA and CO are complete toss-ups.

 

[soul creator]

The Case for Libertarian Democrats

heh heh

 

[GhaleonEB]

From Sept 30 to Oct. 6, college students in Ohio can register for the first time and vote on the same day.

If the Obama camp is seriously organized on the campuses, this can deliver a ton of votes here.

Oh, they are. They've been canvassing neighborhoods to identify who is and is not registered ahead of that deadline. Then during that week, they're going block by block in strong Democratic areas to register new voters - and have them vote. Apparently Obama volunteers are going to be swarming over Ohio that week. He's going to bank thousands - maybe tens of thousands - of votes.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

What are those numbers??

Are they absolute or rate of increase?

Not sure. It's somewhere here:

http://www.heritage.org/research/features/budgetchartbook/Federal-Revenue.html

 

[CharlieDigital]

Adam McKay continues his winning streak after Step Brothers:

We're Gonna Lose This Fricken Thing

Awesome quote:

Money and jobs are flying out of this country as our currency becomes worthless and we're talking about the fact that McCain is a veteran. If someone busted into your house and robbed you would you then forgive them if you found out they were a veteran? Of course not. So why are we forgiving McCain for selling out his country by supporting the Bush agenda?

 

[HylianTom]

I don't know if I'd quite bet on Virginia to go either way. I think VA and CO are complete toss-ups.

My theory is that the campaign is banking on a "side door" map strategy:
- Entice McCain into spending tons of time and money on FL, OH, and VA - the "front door" money-sucking big states that lead to outright victory. If we win one, great!
- Meanwhile, hold Kerry's states and the almost-guaranteed IA & NM, and then steal Colorado (for 273EVs) or Nevada (269EVs).

 

[soul creator]

Not sure how McCain is now winning independents after picking someone as far from a centrist position as Palin.

I'm guessing that "independent" doesn't always equal "moderate". I'm not formally a Democrat, and I'm probably even more to the "left" of a generic democrat...although I'm definitely voting for Obama. But if I was polled, I might be called "independent".

But someone could also be "independent" and be far to the right of even a generic Republican. Palin might appeal to those. Or something.

 

[Chiggs]

Not sure how McCain is now winning independents after picking someone as far from a centrist position as Palin.

Because John McCain, at one time, was a centrist (still is in some ways), and maybe people are going by his past--not just the past 8 years (which honestly, they should be looking at :lol ).

 

[Stoney Mason]

I don't know if I'd quite bet on Virginia to go either way. I think VA and CO are complete toss-ups.

I kind of agree with him on who will tip which way. I have a hard time seeing Obama taking any of what are those core old timey southern states (the old condederate southern states to be blunt) although Virginia and Florida have always been on the edge of that geography.

CO, NM,ND are the interesting ones to me. I'm not familiar with that sort of south western mentality so I don't have a real firm grip on how they come to their decision making. I'm trying to figure out how dissatisfied they really are and what has changed for them. I think I get why a state like Iowa flipped but I don't quite understand those three yet.

 

[Chiggs]

If the Obama camp is seriously organized on the campuses, this can deliver a ton of votes here.

It's been said tons of times before, but the youth vote really needs to show up.

 

[tanod]

Can we turn something on its head?

It's quite common to talk about Obama's path to victory, usually involving Iowa, New Mexico and some other stuff; indeed, there's such a range of 'other stuff' that the breadth of options are quite hard to keep track of.

What if we turned it around? What are *McCain's* paths to victory, and how blockable are they by the Obama campaign? Perhaps it's easier to think of the situation in terms of Obama not losing? I'd guess that McCain's options are a bit fewer; just how many swing states does he need to cap?

Of Bush states, he's gonna lose IA, MT (because of Paul), and maybe OH.
Not having put a TON of thought into it, I think his most likely path to victory would be to take Michigan or PA and keep OH.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Adam McKay continues his winning streak after Step Brothers:

We're Gonna Lose This Fricken Thing

"It reminds me of playing blackjack (a losers game)."

BJ is the only pit game where you have an edge on the house :lol

 

[artredis1980]

 

[laserbeam]

Seems like the GOP fundraising effort is skyrocketing now explains why Obama is pressing his big donors to keep giving.

CHICAGO (CBS) ― Republican John McCain raised about $5 million in Chicago Monday night, or about $1 million for each hour he spent in Democrat Barack Obama's home town.

 

[NullPointer]

Because, clearly, dirty politics is a one-sided affair.

I never said that.

But just because dirty politics can be played by both sides doesn't mean that the playing field is equal. The Repubs have no shame when it comes to lies and smears, and they've been doing it for too damn long now.

 

[Byakuya769]

I'm guessing that "independent" doesn't always equal "moderate". I'm not formally a Democrat, and I'm probably even more to the "left" of a generic democrat...although I'm definitely voting for Obama. But if I was polled, I might be called "independent".

But someone could also be "independent" and be far to the right of even a generic Republican. Palin might appeal to those. Or something.

Not talking about you of course, but I think quite a few independents have stupid reasons for calling their selves such. Many just prefer to be the "both the parties suck" cool kids, while others just don't want to be associated with a party even if they agree with the majority of the platform year and year out.

 

[bob_arctor]

I never said that.

But just because dirty politics can be played by both sides doesn't mean that the playing field is equal. The Repubs have no shame when it comes to lies and smears, and they've been doing it for too damn long now.

Something so obvious you wondered why you even had to type it, eh? Chiggs maybe would beg to differ. Maybe.