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PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts

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Zeliard

Member
HylianTom said:
My theory is that the campaign is banking on a "side door" map strategy:
- Entice McCain into spending tons of time and money on FL, OH, and VA - the "front door" money-sucking big states that lead to outright victory. If we win one, great!
- Meanwhile, hold Kerry's states and the almost-guaranteed IA & NM, and then steal Colorado (for 273EVs) or Nevada (269EVs).

Would you agree that if Obama snags Colorado, McCain has very little if any real chance? That seems to quite possibly be the most critical state at this point, when also looking back at the 2004 election.

soul creator said:
I'm guessing that "independent" doesn't always equal "moderate". I'm not formally a Democrat, and I'm probably even more to the "left" of a generic democrat...although I'm definitely voting for Obama. But if I was polled, I might be called "independent".

But someone could also be "independent" and be far to the right of even a generic Republican. Palin might appeal to those. Or something.

Don't most independents veer towards the center, though, generally-speaking? Certainly not all, but don't most? I was always under that impression. Maybe I'm wrong. I always thought it was their mix of right and left-leaning views that made them eschew both main parties and remain independent. Gallup has McCain winning independents at 52% post-convention. That seems pretty substantial and odd considering who he picked as VP, and McCain himself has absolutely been very right-leaning during this campaign.
 

Xisiqomelir

Member
Zeliard said:
Would you agree that if Obama snags Colorado, McCain has very little if any real chance? That seems to quite possibly be the most critical state at this point, when also looking back at the 2004 election.

Obama's strategy director has said that if our boy wins CO, McCain has a 5% chance of winning the election.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Zeliard said:
Would you agree that if Obama snags Colorado, McCain has very little if any real chance? That seems to quite possibly be the most critical state at this point, when also looking back at the 2004 election.

YUP! I know that ABC/CNN/FOX/etc will be screaming "Ohio Ohio Ohio!" for the next two months, but I have a hunch that Colorado is political ground zero this year.
 

Chiggs

Gold Member
bob_arctor said:
Something so obvious you wondered why you even had to type it, eh? Chiggs maybe would beg to differ. Maybe.

And this is such a fair and objective thread that I really had no reason to post something like that. I'm so sorry. Really.
 

Xisiqomelir

Member
HylianTom said:
YUP! I know that ABC/CNN/FOX/etc will be screaming "Ohio Ohio Ohio!" for the next two months, but I have a hunch that Colorado is political ground zero this year.

Mainstream press not getting it while forumites quickly work out the true reality and call it months in advance? OT really is just a photo inverse of Gaming :lol
 

GhaleonEB

Member
beermonkey@tehbias said:
From Sept 30 to Oct. 6, college students in Ohio can register for the first time and vote on the same day.

If the Obama camp is seriously organized on the campuses, this can deliver a ton of votes here.
I wanted to come back to this.

If, you say? :p

Ohio voting law may be a boon for Obama supporters

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Never mind the last days of the presidential campaign. The busiest days for Barack Obama's campaign in this perennial swing state are likely to be a month before Election Day.

Ohio has created a window in the election calendar that would allow residents instant gratification — register one minute, vote the next. It's also given the campaigns of Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain a chance to bank thousands of first-time voters during that Sept. 30 to Oct. 6 window.

The move will benefit Obama, who enjoys a 2-to-1 lead over McCain among 18- to 34-year-olds, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released last month. If Obama's campaign were able to tap into college campuses with one-stop voting, it would add thousands of votes to his tally in a state where, in 2004, John Kerry lost to President Bush by only about 118,000 votes, putting Bush over the top in the electoral count.

Of the more than 470,000 students enrolled in Ohio's public colleges and universities in 2006, the most recent figures available, nine out of 10 were Ohio residents,
the state Board of Regents said. To register to vote in Ohio, a person must be a resident of the state for at least 30 days immediately before an election.

Ohio elections officials say they are working out potential kinks, such as questions about whether a vote counts when it is cast or when it's counted. They also are trying to address potential fears of massive voting fraud, and what effect this influx is going to mean on vote security.

Allowing voters to cast their ballots weeks before Election Day is a growing trend. More than a dozen states permit early voting, and more than two dozen provide an absentee ballot to any registered voter for any reason. The battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico allow voters both options.

In Ohio, Republicans are clearly not pleased with same-day registration and voting and have not ruled out a lawsuit against Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner's office.

"You have to wonder, when they look at what they consider a loophole with such excitement," said Jason Mauk, the Ohio Republican Party's executive director. "That would suggest manipulating the process, and I think opens the door to suspicion."

The voting window, so far, is only being implemented in some counties — typically, urban areas or those with college campuses — leading Republicans to cry foul.

"The prospect of someone coming in with no ID and registering and voting is contrary to every sort of protection that legislators and lawmakers have built into this system for decades," said Kevin DeWine, a Republican lawmaker who is poised to take over the state party after the election. "The processes and the law and the systems in our 88 counties are not equipped to handle same-day registration."

People in Ohio can register without identification, but they have to show some sort of ID to vote.

State lawmakers accidentally made the window before the 2006 elections. Obama's campaign is eager to take advantage of it this year.

"This is one of many ways we'll be encouraging our supporters to skip the lines on Election Day and make sure their vote is cast early," said Isaac Baker, an Obama spokesman.

The move is likely to bring Obama to Ohio for nonstop campaigning that week. Also, television ads are expected to be in heavy play as both campaigns try to take advantage of the electoral oddity. And the early push could help neutralize any last-minute attacks by one campaign on the other.

Outside, independent groups also are looking at spending a lot of time on campuses that week. Organized labor and liberal activist groups see a chance to build their numbers.

Obama, 47, has been attracting a strong following on campuses, something his campaign has aggressively targeted. McCain, 71, has made attempts but has struggled.

Ohio has been a must-win state for presidential candidates during past cycles, but Obama advisers had been weighing a move to skip it. He lost 83 of 88 counties during his fierce primary campaign against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Some Democrats privately fear the map in the general election against McCain will look very similar.

Obama has trailed in support from rural voters and white, working-class voters. He hasn't campaigned in rural areas, despite advice from Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, whose aggressive rural strategy helped him win his job in 2006 and was repeated for Clinton during March's primary.

But Obama advisers now look at Ohio's campuses as a possible way to offset the losses.

It has Ohio Republicans frustrated. Traditionally, young people make a lot of noise about elections and then stay home. If they don't actually have to turn up at the polls on Election Day, then they might take a greater interest.

Mauk said if Brunner doesn't apply the "loophole" in all counties, lawsuits are an option Republicans have to consider.

The secretary of state's spokesman acknowledged the window exists.

"Instructions are being developed and being sent to boards of election across the state to make sure voting is consistent," said Jeff Ortega, Brunner's spokesman.

Its impact is going to be felt in non-presidential races as well. For instance, Ohio State University is the largest college in the country, with more than 52,000 students enrolled on its main campus in Columbus. Democrats are eyeing it as key to helping Mary Jo Kilroy win her House seat to replace Republican Deborah Pryce, who is not seeking re-election.

"There is no question that the huge effort to register and turn out voters at Ohio State University is going to have a positive impact on our race," said Brad Bauman, a spokesman for Kilroy.

Ohio election law for the first time will allow voters to cast a presidential ballot by mail for any reason. In the past, there were specific provisions by which voters could cast a ballot early. But the law was changed; this is the first national general election in which it will be in play.

In 2004, more young people cast ballots than any other time since 18- to 20-year-olds earned the right to vote in 1972. Turnout in 2004 was up 11 percentage points over 2000.

Even so, 47 percent of eligible 18- to 24-year-old voters didn't cast a ballot that year. During 2002's midterm elections, 82 percent of that group said they did not vote
.
There's a LOT of potential for Obama to pick up tons of votes that week. It starts in three weeks. And absentee ballots by mail for everyone, for any reason. It could turn up a lot of votes as well.
 
NullPointer said:
I never said that.

But just because dirty politics can be played by both sides doesn't mean that the playing field is equal. The Repubs have no shame when it comes to lies and smears, and they've been doing it for too damn long now.
I don't know if the argument is necessarily about who does it more, or who's beend doing it longer. However, one thing that can't be argued is that the GOP sure is far more effective at doing it.

I mean, think back to the celebrity attack. Here is Obama, off on a foreign tour that was intitially prompted by McCain, looking presidential and like a legitimate world leader. He's holding huge rallies on foreign soil, and the people are responding overwhelmingly positive. This is a great thing, right?

You'd think, but those rascals over at the GOP headquarters somehow managed to spin this negatively for Obama. They made him out to be some shallow rock star who's more concerned with his worldwide celebrity status than he is on focusing on the issues. It's a classic attack. Turn your opponent's strength into a weakness. And somehow, they pulled it off.

Now, whether or not Democrats try this sort of thing or not is largely beside the point. They just don't seem capable of doing this even if they wanted to. Hence, the GOP is always going to appear as the villain amongst those of us who have a disdain for dirty politics. Maybe Democrats are about the issues, maybe they aren't. But if they tried going dirty, it wouldn't get as much play.
 

Mumei

Member
Zeliard said:
Don't most independents veer towards the center, though, generally-speaking? Certainly not all, but don't most? I was always under that impression. Maybe I'm wrong. I always thought it was their mix of right and left-leaning views that made them eschew both main parties and remain independent. Gallup has McCain winning independents at 52% post-convention. That seems pretty substantial and odd considering who he picked as VP, and McCain himself has absolutely been very right-leaning during this campaign.

I imagine it has to do with the fact that Republicans have lost a lot of people. Usually, when a political party goes through a period like the Republicans are now, people don't actually switch parties - they become Independents. They aren't ready to identify as Democrats, but they are disapproving of the job that their party was doing. This probably has made the Independent cohort somewhat more conservative than before, and McCain's pick has excited a lot of those conservatives.

Or that's just a guess, anyway. I suspect that you'll find that among Independents who were former Republicans significantly higher support post-Palin / convention as compared to pre-Palin / convention.
 

Chiggs

Gold Member
NullPointer said:
I never said that.

But just because dirty politics can be played by both sides doesn't mean that the playing field is equal. The Repubs have no shame when it comes to lies and smears, and they've been doing it for too damn long now.


But you are sort of saying that in a roundabout way. And what's this advantage that the Republicans have? Fox News?
 

Dolphin

Banned
Xisiqomelir said:
Obama's strategy director has said that if our boy wins CO, McCain has a 5% chance of winning the election.
2moqdk2.jpg
 

Macam

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
It's actually a small advantage right now, since Biden and Obama can both be campaigning right now. (And Hillary, per her two appearances in Florida yesterday.)

Right now it's The Palin Show (Featuring Special Guest John McCain)

Reminds me of this:

ohio%20palin%20sign2.jpg


People need to stop freaking out. It's not a sure thing either way obviously, but there's two months between now and Nov. 4th and Palin, whom most of America knows next to nothing about, is pretty much the sole reason for McCain's rise in the polls. That will, dare I say it, change.
 
i'm still skeptical obama could nab CO but it seems to be trending in his favor, so good for him i guess. here's hoping he can sustain it.

i'm going to be prudent and assume florida and ohio will go mccain. whether you like it or not, palin seemed to tip those states into mccain's favor.
 

bob_arctor

Tough_Smooth
Chiggs said:
And this is such a fair and objective thread that I really had no reason to post something like that. I'm so sorry. Really.

Hell, I don't think it's even worth bothering to be objective about who gets dirtier and slings more utter bullshit when it comes to elections, is it? I thought it clear as the day is bright.
 

Diablos

Member
I'm shocked that Poligaf did not fall into complete omg onoz with all the new Gallup info. :lol He's making gains everywhere! I'm more interested in the poll that is going to be released at 6:30 PM ET myself, though.
 
I have a feeling that Obama has a greater chance of taking VA than OH in November. The people in VA seem to finally get what is at stake this election but OH seems to permanently stuck on stupid. Obama's numbers in VA should worry MCain. The worrisome ones are PA and Michigan. I think PA will stay blue but Michiganders are on the fringe of doing themselves the greatest disservice by voting for Palin (that seems to be where the real GOP excitement is these days).

If MI and PA weren't so close I would be more confident in Obama's ability to run up the score this fall despite what the national polls are saying. Obama's strategy is smart though. If you can't win the media wars, have a good ground game set up to fall back upon. I think as the race goes on, you will see Obama and the democrats get really tough with their Ads and general attacks. Every month they escalate.
 
Chiggs said:
But you are sort of saying that in a roundabout way. And what's this advantage that the Republicans have? Fox News?
The advantage is that the press is very weary of actually calling something a lie. The Repubs can say the moon is made of cheese and the earth is flat, and the mainstream media will simply report that they said it and then debate the strategic significance of saying it without actually pointing out that it is a lie.

Of course if the Democrats were to lie, the Republicans have no shame in saying that it is a lie and will point it out as such with their seemingly patented Faux Outrage, and the mainstream media will report that the Republicans called the Democrats out on lying.

The Democrats however are pussies.

*insert Team America monologue about dicks, pussies and assholes*
 

Rugasuki

Member
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/09/09/palin-national-guard-promotion/

Did Palin Promote Alaska National Guard General Because He Changed His Tone To Support Her Credentials?

In several interviews last week, the relevance of Palin’s role with the National Guard was severely undercut by the actual commander of the Alaska National Guard — its Adjutant General, Major General Craig Campbell.

Brandon Friedman at VetVoice points out that Campbell struck a different tone days later when he spoke to Fox News, saying, “National Guards are state military forces run by governors, and Sarah Palin does it great.”

As Friedman notes, Palin promoted Campbell two days later, making him a Lieutenant General in the Alaska National Guard. There is no direct evidence of a causal link between Campbell’s praise for Palin and his promotion, but Friedman writes that “this series of events raises serious questions about what’s going on” and “the media would be wise to probe this further.”
 
polyh3dron said:
The advantage is that the press is very weary of actually calling something a lie. The Repubs can say the moon is made of cheese and the earth is flat, and the mainstream media will simply report that they said it and then debate the strategic significance of saying it without actually pointing out that it is a lie.

Of course if the Democrats were to lie, the Republicans have no shame in saying that it is a lie, and the mainstream media will report that the Republicans called the Democrats out on lying. The Democrats however are pussies.
There you go. I was about to write a response arguing the futility of just expecting the media to change, but that'll cover it.
 
Interesting news on the absentee votes in Ohio. I just hope the Obama camp floods the state with layers/poll workers to ensure all votes in boxes are counted
 
Diablos said:
I'm shocked that Poligaf did not fall into complete omg onoz with all the new Gallup info. :lol He's making gains everywhere! I'm more interested in the poll that is going to be released at 6:30 PM ET myself, though.

"Diablos and Cheebs think you're gonna fall for any old Daily Tracking Poll that comes down the pipe! I mean, come on! They must think you're stupid!"

;D
 
Fatalah said:
I wish there was a live webcam following Biden and Obama all day long. I'd watch it.
Biden is campaigning less than five miles away from me right now, and I'm stuck at work. Damn you need for financial stability!
 

tanod

when is my burrito
Diablos said:
I'm shocked that Poligaf did not fall into complete omg onoz with all the new Gallup info. :lol He's making gains everywhere! I'm more interested in the poll that is going to be released at 6:30 PM ET myself, though.

I'm gonna bet McCain +2.
 

Rugasuki

Member
I think Obama needs to have his donation page modified to allow more than $2300 to be donated per person, but after that point it automatically puts any money over that amount into the Democratic Party. McCain's donation page works similarly where it allows for huge donations that are then broken up and divided.
 
I wonder if Obama will put massive resources in Ohio at least for that period to secure his chances there. If they had something like that in every state that would be great for Obama.
 
Death of a 1000 cuts continues? . . . MSM hits on per diem while at home:

Report: Palin tapped travel allowance at home
1 hour, 27 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has charged her state a daily allowance, normally used for official travel, for more than 300 nights spent at her home, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.

An analysis of travel statements filed by the governor, now John McCain's Republican running mate, shows she claimed the per diem allowance on 312 occasions when she was home in Wasilla and that she billed taxpayers $43,490 for travel by her husband and children.

Per diem payments are meant for meals and incidental expenses while traveling on state business. State officials told The Post her claims — nearly $17,000 over 19 months — were permitted because her "duty station" is Juneau, the capital, and she was in Wasilla 600 miles away. The governor moved to Juneau last year but often stays in Wasilla and works 45 miles away, in a state office in Anchorage.

Palin's spending and record in office are coming under intense scrutiny as she is presented to the nation as a champion of ethics reform and frugal use of tax dollars — a leader who put the state jet on sale on eBay and drives herself to work.

The Post's analysis shows her husband Todd and their daughters were reimbursed by taxpayers for many trips between Wasilla and Juneau as well as for a variety of other travel that was also listed as state business. Palin's aides said travel by Alaska's first family is part of the job.

But it's not clear when children's travel expenses should be covered. State finance director Kim Garnero told the paper the government covers the travel costs of anyone conducting state business and, "I can't imagine kids could be doing that."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080909/ap_on_el_pr/palin_travel_expenses
 
HylianTom said:
YUP! I know that ABC/CNN/FOX/etc will be screaming "Ohio Ohio Ohio!" for the next two months, but I have a hunch that Colorado is political ground zero this year.

Yep. And it looks like I'll be heading to ground zero for the GOTV. :D
 
This is from last week, but I don't think I've seen it posted on PoliGAF and this needs a bit more play here:

http://ivaw.org/node/4085

IVAW Turned Back from Delivering Briefing to McCain

A formation of 60 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans marched in uniform to Xcel Energy Center on Monday to deliver a briefing on veterans’ issues to Senator McCain on the opening day of the Republican National Convention.

IVAW member Wes Davey led the march and attempted to deliver the briefing to Senator McCain’s staff. Despite numerous mailed, faxed, and in-person invitations to meet, McCain’s office refused to send anyone to receive the briefing. When Davey, a retired Army First Sergeant and former St. Paul police officer, attempted to deliver the briefing, he was escorted off the premises.

Davey is a father of five and grandfather of seven. He served 28 years in the Army, including a tour in Iraq in 2003. His oldest child has served two tours in Iraq. "After being an NCO for all those years, I care deeply about all those still serving in Iraq," said Davey about his reasons for organizing this march.

Members of Iraq Veterans Against the War (IVAW) marched to the Pepsi Center in Denver on Wednesday, August 27 where they were met by Phil Carter, Senator Obama’s Senior Veterans’ Liaison. Carter is negotiating the terms of a meeting with IVAW representatives. IVAW has requested a meeting with Senator Obama himself and his Senior Foreign Policy Advisor.

Senator McCain has consistently voted against veterans interests. In a recent report, Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave Senator McCain a “D” rating to Senator Obama’s “B+.” Disabled American Veterans reports that Senator McCain only voted for legislation that benefited veterans 20% of the time while Senator Obama supported veterans’ needs 80% of the time.

IVAW will continue to press both political parties for its three points of unity: an immediate end to the occupation of Iraq, reparations for the Iraqi people, and full benefits for returning veterans.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
maximum360 said:
I wonder if Obama will put massive resources in Ohio at least for that period to secure his chances there. If they had something like that in every state that would be great for Obama.

Obama is going to campaign there all week so I think that's a lot of resources.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
CharlieDigital said:
This is from last week, but I don't think I've seen it posted on PoliGAF and this needs a bit more play here:

http://ivaw.org/node/4085
Yeah, McCain's veteran voting record is horrible. But he's a POW!

Also, Obama says to chill out.

“I know that after our convention we had a bump, after theirs they get a bump. I think that what you’re going to see settling in, is that the race is going to be very close.”
 
and here is the kind of ad you run in the rust belt, over and over, and murder your competition with:

http://thepage.time.com/obama-ad-bush-economics/

Woman from Gladwin, Michigan: Our plant manager called us in and he said he was sorry that he got the news that we were closed. I see the presses loaded up and taken away.

Announcer: In Washington, John McCain voted to give tax breaks to companies that export jobs to foreign countries. So while corporations ship jobs to Mexico, Indian and China, JM supports tax breaks for companies that leave American workers behind.

It’s George Bush economics, and we can’t afford more of the same.

There's a lot of good stuff going on here, but the thing that jumps out at me is A) the imagery specifically poinging out Mexico and China-two countries conservative Democrats and Independents despise in that region because they are undereducated xenophobes and hate outsourcing of manufacturing jobs AND hate Mexican illegal immigrants, which aren't directly bashed here but there is a winky-winky to that effect with the prominent display of the Mexico border crossing.

I like how they are bringing in real people to tell stories at the start of the ads-it adds a human element to the affair and keeps the ad tone sympathetic and not totally "I'm get you sucka!" negative.
 
bob_arctor said:
Down the memory hole it goes! *woosh*

This is a good point. Do you all think that the constant barrage of policy inconsistencies and outright lies is counterproductive? Is it really reaching anyone, or just drowning itself out?
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Fragamemnon said:
and here is the kind of ad you run in the rust belt, over and over, and murder your competition with:

http://thepage.time.com/obama-ad-bush-economics/

There's a lot of good stuff going on here, but the thing that jumps out at me is A) the imagery specifically poinging out Mexico and China-two countries conservative Democrats and Independents despise in that region because they are undereducated xenophobes and hate outsourcing of manufacturing jobs AND hate Mexican illegal immigrants, which aren't directly bashed here but there is a winky-winky to that effect with the prominent display of the Mexico border crossing.

I like how they are bringing in real people to tell stories at the start of the ads-it adds a human element to the affair and keeps the ad tone sympathetic and not totally "I'm get you sucka!" negative.
I'm starting to think that, rather than GAF, the Obama team reads fivethirtyeight.

Sunday night, Nate lamented the quality of Obama ads, and then made two suggestions.

In that spirit, here are two Obama ads that I'd like to see.

Firstly, I think they need some sort of hit on Sarah Palin. But it can't be too personal. The whole point is to portray her as a conventional and perhaps somewhat corrupt and provincial politician, and break out of the sort of People Magazine / US Weekly popularity contest that has broken out. There is so much attention being paid to Palin's celebrity that she has gotten away with asserting her claim to being a reformer when there are some strong rebuttals to such things.
Yesterday, Obama comes out with the ad saying Palin and McCain are lying about their records, citing the bridge to nowhere as an example.

The other campaign I'd do is not one ad but a series of them. During the final night of Democratic Convention in Denver, the Obama campaign had seven or eight 'ordinary' people speak to the assembled crowd at Invesco Field. They were working class, middle-aged white and Hispanic voters, who conveniently all happened to be from swing states. But they were actually pretty persuasive, and produced some of the more moving moments of the convention:

So I would put together five or six of these spots, featuring these people or people like them speaking directly to camera, with interspersed images of their hometowns and their families, reserving 5 seconds at the end for a few phrases on blackscreen:

"The Obama Economic Plan"
"Tax Cuts for Working Families"
"5 Million New Green Energy Jobs"
"Health Care for Every American"
"The Change That We Need"

You get the idea. It's a little unconventional but would be buzzworthy and would seek to counter some of Palin's homespun appeal.
And now we have a similar ad, with an "ordinary person" talking about the impact of Bush/McCain policy on her life.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/obama-needs-more-better-ads.html

Edit: Make that two ads with normal folks talking about their lives.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Obama_Shaky_Economy_Bush_Economics.html?showall
 
Price Dalton said:
This is a good point. Do you all think that the constant barrage of policy inconsistencies and outright lies is counterproductive? Is it really reaching anyone, or just drowning itself out?

On some level, it's like if there's so much shit out there that's just outright false, they can get away with it because people can't stop and focus on any specific issue.
 
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