Back from a 1 week ban...
and it's been fun watching you guys panic and meltdown a bit... but in the end all for nought.
Obama is a smart player. He's killing it where he needs to be killing it; in electoral votes.
To an extent, Obama won the primaries not just because he was charismatic and preached an appealing message, without compromising his values (which are all excellent points of his), but because his campaign was run incredibly tightly; they attacked where they needed to attack, put resources out where it was needed, created an unprecedented grass roots movements, to affect change in areas that were outside the field of view of their opponents. He played the game for what mattered (delegate count), and planned a solid strategy around it, to shut out one of the most powerful brand name in politics with a huge starting advantage.
With McCain, unlike with Hilary, he's going to have an even bigger advantage; there won't be a long drawn out process where people in other states get to see what happens previously; everyone votes at the same time. Why's it an advantage? Well for one, it doesn't give the media weeks and months to hammer on Obama creating changing opinions as they try to fuel a ratings based agenda... another is that the McCain campaign will not have enough time to adapt appropriately until it's far too late.
The bump that McCain recieved post convention and post Palin is all too clear that they're not running any sort of tight campaign; the guy is struggling against internal party politics, getting 2 of his VP picks vetoed, before ignoring the party's choice (pawlenty) and going for a last ditched, unvetted 'maverick'.
Kudos to them for having spun it so well given what little material they had... but they really come off as repulsive as a result to any decent and sane individual; they've polarized things heavily in the last week... and it's not been to their advantage...
Sure they shored up their base, but their base are in areas that would've already voted red. Number of votes are important... but as 2000 showed us, electoral votes are what win this game.
So now they have the red states locked in, and a heavy division in swing states... what then? Well the debates will roll about, and Obama will have a few more weeks to invest heavily in swing states with localised issues and negative ads depending on state. He and Biden will destroy their opponents in the debates on an objective level, but as the media have already proven, they're capable of distorting reality; they can literally tell viewers the beat down McCain or Palin just recieved was in fact not a beat down, but an unexpectedly strong performance by them, with an unexpectedly weak performance from Obama/Biden.
In the mean time... we have a lot of historical firsts going on; this is the first time that the internet has been so widespread; a transparent medium of communication among the youth, after 8 years of a disastrous government... that is sure to change the way the game is played more than the polls can indicate. As well as historical and analytical data pointing towards a win for the democrats.
Well guys, this change has been powered by the likes of you; we're nearly there, these long 8 years we've endured, and the past year we've hoped like hell... we're nearly there... if we keep pushing a little further... create discussions with friends and colleagues, get out and volunteer for a little community organizing, donate, etc... we'll finally be able to cast off this pall on America's... nay, the world's progress in the last 8 years.
I donated for the first time last week.
