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PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts

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NetMapel

Guilty White Male Mods Gave Me This Tag
polyh3dron said:
If Obama wins who are the Republicans gonna run in 2012? Bobby Jindal? Ron Paul (lol)? Sarah Palin (lolol)?
Hey, they're doing a good job spinning Sarah Palin into looking like a competent individual. They can do the same for another Republican candidate in 2012.
 

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
Byakuya769 said:
Does anyone else feel that McCain's ads (smears or not/lies or otherwise) are not only much more effective than Obama's, but are also produced much better? Seems Obama's always have some silly music aimed to make you giggle, while McCain's has the perfect blend of ominous danger (if you elect Obama) and soothing elation (I'm john mccain and I approve this message).

I don't think that it's necessarily the negativity that makes the ads that much better, but the overall production.
The thing I remember best from those McCain ads is the music, and it feels so transparent and manufactured. It's always the dark clouds in the music before the ray of hope. I've heard it stated that attack ads are merely to discredit the other side so that people feel less inclined to vote. That sounds like a logical reason since people always seem to be sick of attack ads. They become disillusioned with the political process. There was a link to an Obama ad several pages back that I really liked. It was Obama talking straight into the camera about some of his policies, no ominous music, no annoying voice over, and it was very subtle in how it played against the other side. It feels exactly like something Obama would do. No pseudo attack. I hope stuff like that works and gets people reinvigorated about the political process.
 

VALIS

Member
NetMapel said:
I'm not optimistic. Even if Obama wins this election, here's the scenarios I see happening in the following years:

- The expectation for Obama is so high that unless he does a PHENOMENAL job in the next 4 years, 2012 is when Republicans will come full swing attacking Obama's 2008 "hope" campaign promises. Let's be realistic, 4 years of Obama isn't going to suddenly make US a utopia so Republicans will spin their attack so hard and so fast that Obama is likely to lose in 2012

- Republicans somehow gets Obama impeached :lol

- World ends as predicted by the Mayans

Of course the Republicans will try to undermine his presidency, there's no doubt about this, but if Obama wins then the Dems likely kept control of congress anyway, so they'll just be pissing into the wind (unless that supposed group of "rogue democrats" in congress tries to gum up the works, but that's just far flung speculation at this point).

And if the world ends as predicted by the Mayans, it will happen about two weeks before he's scheduled to leave office from his first term anyway, so no biggie.
 

Rugasuki

Member
I watched the new Biden video where he mentions there are 42-44 field offices currently in Virginia and it made me think about if the polls are taking that type of thing into account.

Does anyone know if anyone has done an indepth study of how much Obama's ground game may skew the current state polls in his favor? I mean more than just speculating it could add a couple percent.

I've been volunteering in CO for Obama for the last 3 days and I noticed we have 25 field offices with likely more opening and McCain only has 9. We also have a constant stream of new volunteers daily. Also, Denver and the surrounding area has over 50% of the CO population and Obama has 6 field offices in and around Denver for Obama while McCain only has 2 and both of his are actually outside of Denver. Last weekend the Obama campaign registered 5500 voters in CO.

I really hope that these polls are underestimating Obama's ground game by a significant margin but I'd like to see something supporting it besides idle speculation.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Mgoblue201 said:
The thing I remember best from those McCain ads is the music, and it feels so transparent and manufactured. It's always the dark clouds in the music before the ray of hope. I've heard it stated that attack ads are merely to discredit the other side so that people feel less inclined to vote. That sounds like a logical reason since people always seem to be sick of attack ads. They become disillusioned with the political process. There was a link to an Obama ad several pages back that I really liked. It was Obama talking straight into the camera about some of his policies, no ominous music, no annoying voice over, and it was very subtle in how it played against the other side. It feels exactly like something Obama would do. No pseudo attack. I hope stuff like that works and gets people reinvigorated about the political process.
At least here in Michigan they are no longer running those (which they did before the Hillary fight was over) they're running the kind you describe as McCain ads. If I believed the ads from both camps at this point, I'm convinced we're in the Great Depression and if I vote for the other guy it'll be the Great Depression again. Plus terrorists/oil companies will win.
 

Iksenpets

Banned
polyh3dron said:
If Obama wins who are the Republicans gonna run in 2012? Bobby Jindal? Ron Paul (lol)? Sarah Palin (lolol)? 76 Year Old John McCain (lololol)?



I think if Palin loses it'll really deflate her hype. Jindal would be a possibility, but he'd still be really young. Only like 41 or something in 2012, I think. It depends on how his governorship goes. He'd need a really impressive feat to vault himself up that quickly. Otherwise I think it's left to Romney and Huckabee to fight it out all over again. Jindal would definitely have a VP shot with one of those two, though. Of course, someone could vault to the top out of nowhere, too. Who knows. I'm more curious about who the Dems would run if they lost. I'm sure Hillary will go for the "I told you so" campaign, and if McCain ends up being unpopular, Obama could also pull the same angle, but after this election they might just be sick of those two and go for some completely random new blood.
 
Ether_Snake said:
I think there is a lot of manipulation when it comes to polls.

Then you add dirty tactics to suppress votes when the elections come around.

Then people accept defeat because the polls made it sound like it was a close call.
I think that's alot of the reason why people write off Florida and Ohio. Even if Obama wins, he won't win. Well he never had a chance in Ohio, but still.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Rugasuki said:
I watched the new Biden video where he mentions there are 42-44 field offices currently in Virginia and it made me think about if the polls are taking that type of thing into account.

Does anyone know if anyone has done an indepth study of how much Obama's ground game may skew the current state polls in his favor? I mean more than just speculating it could add a couple percent.

I've been volunteering in CO for Obama for the last 3 days and I noticed we have 25 field offices with likely more opening and McCain only has 9. We also have a constant stream of new volunteers daily. Also, Denver and the surrounding area has over 50% of the CO population and Obama has 6 field offices in and around Denver for Obama while McCain only has 2 and both of his are actually outside of Denver. Last weekend the Obama campaign registered 5500 voters in CO.

I really hope that these polls are underestimating Obama's ground game by a significant margin but I'd like to see something supporting it besides idle speculation.
Three thoughts.

1) I've read studies showing a good ground game can make up to a 1-5% difference, depending on the factors. Pretty sure it was on fivethirghteight, but I can't find the article.

2) The vast majority of the polls use "likely voter" models, and there's some evidence to suggest that those models are having a very hard time determining who is likely to vote this year. Many of them are designed to skim voters who have not voted in the past. Polls often shape the sample to reflect the demographic make up of past elections, for example. There's a lot of evidence to suggest that's not an accurate model this year, such as voter registration trends and primary turnout.

3) The polls will lag voter registration trends, regardless.
 
Cloudy said:
Yeah it's on there. There's a few vids. Search "Obama Dover"

Thank you very much

(edit) actually I was talking about his stop later in the day.. around the time Lou Dobbs shit show comes on. Not quite sure what city it was in, just heard his appearance was pretty short.. despite being over an hour late to it.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
A detail I didn't know about the subpoenas issued today.

The state Senate Judiciary Committee voted 3-2 today to subpoena 13 people -- including the husband of Gov. Sarah Palin -- in an investigation of whether Palin abused her power in trying to get her former brother-in-law fired.

What's interesting is that committee is controlled by Republicans -- three of them compared to two Democrats. The two Democrats voted to issue the subpoenas, including one targeting Todd Palin. That left three Republicans able to block them. Yet one of them defected.

His name is Charlie Huggins, and he represents ... Wasilla.
Ouch.

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/12/163222/552/438/596543
 
Slurpy said:
Have you listened to him speak? He's doing an extremely good job. He shows righteous outrage, unlike Obama. The only problem? The media doesnt give a fuck, and therefore doesnt cover it.

Exactly. Biden has launched several zingers at Palin. But the media won't care unless Biden makes a gaffe.

As for ads, I really liked the Obama Olympic ads. Made me feel good and they had good production values.

But agree with you guys that all the post-Olympic ads by the Obama campaign have been sub-standard. The "Out of Touch" ad they released today was terrible. It made fun of McCain for not knowing how to use a computer but it didn't really tie into anything. It came off as petty without even sewing the seeds of doubt like a good attack ad should. Total fail.

Unlike some Democrats who want Obama to go for blood, I just think he needs to have a hard-hitting attack ad that's semi-related to the issues but not sleazy. Hilary Clinton's 3AM ad is a perfect example of what Obama needs. The 3AM ad wasn't sleazy, but it challenged Obama's preparedness to be commander-in-chief in a very visceral way.

Instead of just saying, "McCain is More of the Same", remind people what that "same" is. Do a greatest hits montage of the last 8 years under Bush:
- Show a clip of Mission Accomplished with the 2002 date overlayed
- Then show a US soldier under fire with the escalating causality count and the 2003-2004 date overlayed
- Show images of dying Americans in front of the Superdome during Hurricane Katrina with the 2005 date overlayed
- Show another cluster-fuck image of Iraq from 2006 when the country was breaking out into civil war and 1000 iraqi civilians were dying per month
- Show a row of hollowed out foreclosed and homeless/jobless families
- Then finally show a picture of Osama Bin Laden and how he's still on the loose in 2008.

After showing them all of this, that's when you say do you want more of the same. Do we really want to give these guys another 4-8 years? The Obama campaign needs to keep reminding people how shitty the last 8 years were. They need to do it in a visceral way, not just with a rushed voice-over in their ads.

To be honest, I don't even think the Obama campaign needs to attack McCain directly. Just keep hammering home how terrible the last 8 years were. McCain can't defend that. If he tries defending the last 8 years the might as well pack it in.
 

GDJustin

stuck my tongue deep inside Atlus' cookies
GhaleonEB said:
Three thoughts.

1) I've read studies showing a good ground game can make up to a 1-5% difference, depending on the factors. Pretty sure it was on fivethirghteight, but I can't find the article.

2) The vast majority of the polls use "likely voter" models, and there's some evidence to suggest that those models are having a very hard time determining who is likely to vote this year. Many of them are designed to skim voters who have not voted in the past. Polls often shape the sample to reflect the demographic make up of past elections, for example. There's a lot of evidence to suggest that's not an accurate model this year, such as voter registration trends and primary turnout.

3) The polls will lag voter registration trends, regardless.

I posted this in this topic earlier, but it was ignored:

The polls that show McCain and Obama neck-and-neck polled an equal number of republicans and democrats.

But democrats have 10M+ more registered party members than republicans do. (ie the polling is useless and not representative)


and I don't mean that in a "I'm going to spin these results to say what I want them to say" kind of way. I mean it in a literal "These polls in no way represent real voting trends" way. It's like... if you poll an equal number of Dems and Reps... no fucking shit the results come out even!

Everyone should calm down.
 

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
benjipwns said:
At least here in Michigan they are no longer running those (which they did before the Hillary fight was over) they're running the kind you describe as McCain ads. If I believed the ads from both camps at this point, I'm convinced we're in the Great Depression and if I vote for the other guy it'll be the Great Depression again. Plus terrorists/oil companies will win.
I live in Michigan too, and I've been inundated with McCain ads. The only opposing ad I can remember is when they overlayed McCain and Bush speaking at the same time about how America's economy is strong. I felt that was partially effective since they showed an actual clip. I think that was more of a general Democratic ad, however, and not an Obama one.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Maybe. The Research 2000 poll has this for the internals yesterday (they didn't disclose today):

Democrats 396 (36%)
Republicans 286 (26%)
Independents 319 (29%)

Strikes me as too many "Independants", but there were more Dems than Republicans.
 

kevm3

Member
The Chosen One said:
Exactly. Biden has launched several zingers at Palin. But the media won't care unless Biden makes a gaffe.

As for ads, I really liked the Obama Olympic ads. Made me feel good and they had good production values.

But agree with you guys that all the post-Olympic ads by the Obama campaign have been sub-standard. The "Out of Touch" ad they released today was terrible. It made fun of McCain for not knowing how to use a computer but it didn't really tie into anything. It came off as petty without even sewing the seeds of doubt like a good attack ad should. Total fail.

Unlike some Democrats who want Obama to go for blood, I just think he needs to have a hard-hitting attack ad that's semi-related to the issues but not sleazy. Hilary Clinton's 3AM ad is a perfect example of what Obama needs. The 3AM ad wasn't sleazy, but it challenged Obama's preparedness to be commander-in-chief in a very visceral way.

Instead of just saying, "McCain is More of the Same", remind people what that "same" is. Do a greatest hits montage of the last 8 years under Bush:
- Show a clip of Mission Accomplished with the 2002 date overlayed
- Then show a US soldier under fire with the escalating causality count and the 2003-2004 date overlayed
- Show images of dying Americans in front of the Superdome during Hurricane Katrina with the 2005 date overlayed
- Show another cluster-fuck image of Iraq from 2006 when the country was breaking out into civil war and 1000 iraqi civilians were dying per month
- Show a row of hollowed out foreclosed and homeless/jobless families
- Then finally show a picture of Osama Bin Laden and how he's still on the loose in 2008.

After showing them all of this, that's when you say do you want more of the same. Do we really want to give these guys another 4-8 years? The Obama campaign needs to keep reminding people how shitty the last 8 years were. They need to do it in a visceral way, not just with a rushed voice-over in their ads.

To be honest, I don't even think the Obama campaign needs to attack McCain directly. Just keep hammering home how terrible the last 8 years were. McCain can't defend that. If he tries defending the last 8 years the might as well pack it in.

I agree that there needs to be more emphasis on exactly what made Bush so bad. "Same as Bush" is losing its impact. A picture needs to be painted as to what it was, and to what '4 more years of Bush' would mean.

Higher gas prices
More unjustified wars
Losing more rights, etc.
 

GDJustin

stuck my tongue deep inside Atlus' cookies
GhaleonEB said:
Maybe. The Research 2000 poll has this for the internals yesterday (they didn't disclose today):

Democrats 396 (36%)
Republicans 286 (26%)
Independents 319 (29%)

Strikes me as too many "Independants", but there were more Dems than Republicans.

That still isn't proportional, though:

290px-U.S._party_affiliation.svg.png


Edit: Or maybe it is? It's late! Someone else m do the math.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
GDJustin said:
That still isn't proportional, though:

290px-U.S._party_affiliation.svg.png


Edit: Or maybe it is? It's late! Someone else m do the math.
That's:

Code:
IND	42	25%
GOP	55	33%
DEM	72	43%

Pretty close. Republicans are actully under-sampled. :p

Democrats 396 (36%)
Republicans 286 (26%)
Independents 319 (29%)
 
polyh3dron said:
If Obama wins who are the Republicans gonna run in 2012? Bobby Jindal? Ron Paul (lol)? Sarah Palin (lolol)? 76 Year Old John McCain (lololol)?

I think this is Palin's only shot. There's absolutely NO WAY she'd make it through a Republican primary. If McCain/Palin don't win this year, then Palin's novelty will wear off. After the general election battle is over, I bet you'll see a lot of Republicans second-guess the choice of Palin and malign her total lack of experience. Republicans are propping her up now because they have to. But once the election is over, I think she'll slunk back to Alaska and Republicans will pick someone else with more experience and with better intellectual credentials.

Plus, I imagine if McCain/Palin lose this election, part of it will be because Palin is a very polarizing figure even among women. If the Republicans are looking for someone to lead the future of the party, I would think it would be someone who has more cross-party appeal than Palin, especially with Republican party identification down.

Obama at least showed there was substance behind his celebrity. Whereas the ABC interviews have shown that there isn't much underneath the surface with Palin.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Maybe. The Research 2000 poll has this for the internals yesterday (they didn't disclose today):

Democrats 396 (36%)
Republicans 286 (26%)
Independents 319 (29%)

Strikes me as too many "Independants", but there were more Dems than Republicans.

I think some of those "independents" are simply republicans that have been losing too many arguments over the last eight years..
 

Macam

Banned
The Lamonster said:
Is it online yet?

Yes.

For everyone else who doesn't know what that link is, since everyone always repeats things at least 5 times in this thread:

REAL TIME W/BILL MAHER FROM 9/12
REAL TIME W/BILL MAHER FROM 9/12
REAL TIME W/BILL MAHER FROM 9/12

Enjoy.
 
Those Real Time links were really good until Roseanne came out. Holy shit. I had to close YouTube when she said Palin's "attack" on community organizers was racist :lol
 
Bumblebeetuna said:
Those Real Time links were really good until Roseanne came out. Holy shit. I had to close YouTube when she said Palin's "attack" on community organizers was racist :lol
But she has that republican sneer. :lol

You really should watch the bit after that when Maher is talking on his own ending the show. It's really good.
 

Trurl

Banned
sp0rsk said:
Show sucks for the same reason Crossfire sucks. Also Maher isn't funny, he just comes off smug.
Crossfire pits douche bags against each other that will always defend their party regardless of the issue. Bill Maher is a douche bag who thinks for himself, often says things that won't be said elsewhere, and is pretty funny. I guess my favorite thing about Maher is that even though he is smug he doesn't wear blinders or succumb to group think.

But yeah, if you don't find him funny I guess there isn't much to get enthusiastic about.
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Yeah, I don't get Crossfire vibe at all.

For every douchebag pundit he puts on the show, he has two more intellectuals such as Salman Rushdee or real politicians. Crossfire was all about who could scream the talking points the loudest.
 

vangace

Member
Obama had to be coaxed by the crowd in New Hampshire to say the Mccain camp "Lied", wtf is wrong with this guy doesn't he know the saying, "nice guys fuckin finish last all the fuckin time" sheesh grow a fuckin pair.
 

kevm3

Member
If McCain came out and started complaining about it, it could be equally disasterous for him... in that it'd look like McCain is looking to take any small issue to blow it up and complain about it. Lipstick on a pig wasn't taken seriously, and Obama can simply say, the ad wasn't mockign McCain's physical inability to use a computer. The point is, technology is rapidly changing the face of America and if we don't adapt, we will be left behind. In these times, it is pertinent that we actually have a leader who is deeply familiar with and utilizes technology on a regular basis so that he can guide America down the right path.
 

Jak140

Member
I don't think the email ad will come up too much in the next few days. It would look incredibly trite for McCain to complain about it in the face of the destruction & death that will be left in Ike's wake. If the Obama campaign has any sense, they will pull the ad quietly, and it'll never hit the MSM.
 

Iksenpets

Banned
kevm3 said:
If McCain came out and started complaining about it, it could be equally disasterous for him... in that it'd look like McCain is looking to take any small issue to blow it up and complain about it. Lipstick on a pig wasn't taken seriously, and Obama can simply say, the ad wasn't mockign McCain's physical inability to use a computer. The point is, technology is rapidly changing the face of America and if we don't adapt, we will be left behind. In these times, it is pertinent that we actually have a leader who is deeply familiar with and utilizes technology on a regular basis so that he can guide America down the right path.


This is way different from lip stick on a pig. That was a.) relevant to the discussion being had and b.) was very obviously in no way offensive. This new ad, even if it weren't offensive, which intentionally or not, it is, is still exactly the sort of trivial attack that Obama's been speaking out against. I'm all for Obama, but this was a stupid, stupid move. Campaigns have been destroyed over less. If he comes out of this unscathed he's a very lucky man.
 

laserbeam

Banned
kevm3 said:
If McCain came out and started complaining about it, it could be equally disasterous for him... in that it'd look like McCain is looking to take any small issue to blow it up and complain about it. Lipstick on a pig wasn't taken seriously, and Obama can simply say, the ad wasn't mockign McCain's physical inability to use a computer. The point is, technology is rapidly changing the face of America and if we don't adapt, we will be left behind. In these times, it is pertinent that we actually have a leader who is deeply familiar with and utilizes technology on a regular basis so that he can guide America down the right path.

Jonah Goldberg said:
But how stupid is it for the Obama campaign to claim that McCain is unqualified to be president because he can’t grasp cyber-security issues based on the fact he has never sent an email when the McCain campaign can just as easily say Obama can’t understand first order national security issues because he’s never fired a rife, flown a plane, commanded men in battle, or faced an enemy? I mean which prepares someone to be commander in chief better, hitting “send” on AOL or fighting a war?

I think that response is pretty powerful as far as coming back at the technology thing. The Hurricane will probably spare the Obama camp a controversy though so they should count their blessings. This has the potential to be another multi day controversy and thus multi day loss of issues talk
 

kevm3

Member
I agree. It was an awful 'attack.' If he is going to attack, which he should, it should be on relevant issues. for example, why is Palin in a media bubble. How can someone who rarely uses technology be a leader in an increasingly technology driven technology? McCain has stated he doesn't know much about the economy, from his own mouth. Why not bring that up? Palin doesn't know too much about anything... Any of those attacks would be better than,"Haha McCain, you're an old guy! You can't use e-mail, haha!"


Anyone Obamaites, I've compiled some good videos that you should get to spreading around. I'll be updating when I can find new material.

Obama on Bill O' Reilly
http://www. youtube. com/watch?v=3i6cOT9BIDk

Part 2
http://www. youtube. com/watch?v=F1-JTrQ9joI

Part 3
http://www. youtube. com/watch?v=KX0s2b8NEDM

Part 4
http://www. youtube. com/watch?v=1ZA2WXgkWTM


McCain singing Bomb Iran
http://www. youtube. com/watch?v=o-zoPgv_nYg

Matt Damon on Palin
http://www. youtube. com/watch?v=anxkrm9uEJk

Palin "What does a VP do?"
http://www. youtube. com/watch?v=VUMWJoLR1sM

Palin and the Bush Doctrine
http://www. youtube. com/watch?v=Z75QSExE0jU
 
sp0rsk said:
Show sucks for the same reason Crossfire sucks. Also Maher isn't funny, he just comes off smug.
Fuck that, and fuck liberal guilt over feeling better than others when you genuinely have a better, more informed, point of view. I'm getting really fucking sick of this celebration of mediocrity.
 

kevm3

Member
You know, I'm also starting to think that Obama should slowly shift a theme of his campaign. Palin and McCain are tainting the "change" moniker. I'm thinking Obama should maybe chance it to, "the change we NEED." Acknowledge that McCain and Palin will change the nation, but will change it in a negative direction.

"John McCain and Sarah Palin have recently taken the change moniker. Anyone notice that? Well, let me tell you. They'll bring change. Change is inevitable. They'll bring you change alright. More wars. Palin doesn't believe in global warming. With the increased disasters you've seen, it's obvious that how we treat Mother Earth is how she treats us. The economy is having a rough time. McCain doesn't think so. Well, it's kind of hard to feel the downpours of a rough economy when you have the shelter of your seven houses.

Now, my fellow friends and citizens of this great nation, we're on a forked road in American history, and the path we choose today will have drastic effects on the future of our nation. We can choose to say no to tolerance, we can say no to keeping America technologically saavy, we can say no to ending the war in Iraq, we can say no to avoiding future wars that we don't have to fight... wars based on a lack of facts and erroneous judgment My friends, we can say no to a future in which we leave our children better off than we were, something good, honest Americans have been doing since the inception of this great nation. If you are ready to say no to the future, vote McCain and Palin. However, if you are ready to say yes, yes to REAL CHANGE, if you are ready to say YES to the change we need... a rebuilding of our critical infrastructure, a leader who will use sound judgment before engaging other nation, who will keep us relevant technologically and who will work hard at rebuilding our crumbling education system, then Joe Biden and I are your men. We are the team that will bring you not just change, but the Change you NEED! Thank you and God bless!
 

Slurpy

*drowns in jizz*
Iksenpets said:
This is way different from lip stick on a pig. That was a.) relevant to the discussion being had and b.) was very obviously in no way offensive. This new ad, even if it weren't offensive, which intentionally or not, it is, is still exactly the sort of trivial attack that Obama's been speaking out against. I'm all for Obama, but this was a stupid, stupid move. Campaigns have been destroyed over less. If he comes out of this unscathed he's a very lucky man.

That ad was honestly the first thing his campaign put out that I flat out think is a bad move, and a bad ad. The style doesnt jive with his previous message of keeping the eye on the big issues and themes. It comes off as childish and bullyish.
 
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