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[ralexand]

The real reason why Clinton isn't on the ticket is because Bill balked at releasing his library donors something neither side can admit to for obvious reasons.

 

[Hootie]

When the hell is this McCain RNC bump supposed to end?

 

[Ether_Snake]

It still belongs in historical collections.

Yeah I know but for some reason I get the impression that people who go "I pray for Sarah! She's great! Damn the media!" wouldn't object to having works from Mark Twain banned.

And you people need to stop with the fucking polls, they are USELESS. Go do some support work instead.

 

[Zombie James]

When the hell is this McCain RNC bump supposed to end?

My faith in the intelligence of the American voter is dropping...

 

[TDG]

When the hell is this McCain RNC bump supposed to end?

It's already ending in most polls. The five-thirty-eight projections are a few days behind.

 

[The Chosen One]

PHOTOS: Obama in Manchester this morning

*sigh*

This is one of the downsides to living in a solid blue state (California). Obama will never hold a large rally here. He'll only come here in stealth mode to meet with rich donors. Even worse, I'm in the San Diego area (which is fairly conservative) so he'll never waste his time coming here.

The electoral college can bite me.

 

[gkryhewy]

The campaign is claiming that she did go into Iraq until they were called on it. It has nothing to do with her and more to do about the campaign's spin cycle.

Worse than that, one of the initial talking points was that she'd been to Iraq before Obama had :lol

What a fucking disgrace that party is.

 

[AniHawk]

For the five-hundred and thirty-eighth time, those numbers you see are 2-3 days behind schedule. Don't panic. I'm guessing they'll start going up again tomorrow or the day after.

 

[Gaborn]

Yeah I know but for some reason I get the impression that people who go "I pray for Sarah! She's great! Damn the media!" wouldn't object to having works from Mark Twain banned.

And you people need to stop with the fucking polls, they are USELESS. Go do some support work instead.

Link other than the discredited lists that have been floating around?

 

[The Lamonster]

It's already ending in most polls. The five-thirty-eight projections are a few days behind.

really? I was under the impression that Nate was keeping it as current as possible.

 

[Hootie]

*sigh*

This is one of the downsides to living in a solid blue state (California). Obama will never hold a large rally here. He'll only come here in stealth mode to meet with rich donors. Even worse, I'm in the San Diego area (which is fairly conservative) so he'll never waste his time coming here.

The electoral college can bite me.

It's just as bad here in Rhode Island. We're a very solid dem state so we'll never see him.

At least my mom was able to shake Jimmy Carter's hand back when he was campaigning here in the 70s

 

[GhaleonEB]

Is 538 slow or something? There's no way Obama is that behind.

It didn't move much from yesterday. But the shift today was due to the Zogby Interactive polls.

...As for the Zogby Interactive polls, I tend to prefer to let them speak for themselves. Obama ahead in North Carolina but 6-7 points down in Virginia? I don't find that especially credible. Anyway, they're in our model, but given a very low weight.

They have a low weight, but there were eleven of them, most showing improbable bad news for Obama.

When the hell is this McCain RNC bump supposed to end?

Read the analysis from earlier today on the site. Should normalize to about even over the next two weeks. Chill.

I'm about to board the train heading for Don't Sweat Polls Until the Debate in Two Weeks.

Be right back.

*choo choo*

 

[numble]

*sigh*

This is one of the downsides to living in a solid blue state (California). Obama will never hold a large rally here. He'll only come here in stealth mode to meet with rich donors. Even worse, I'm in the San Diego area (which is fairly conservative) so he'll never waste his time coming here.

The electoral college can bite me.

The funny thing is that if California kept to its old primary schedule, in June, instead of moving it to Super Tuesday, there would've been an epic primary contest in California as the last state in the primary season.

 

[Hootie]

I'm about to board the train heading for Don't Sweat Polls Until the Debate in Two Weeks.

Be right back.

*choo choo*

Watch out for freight trains!

 

[Ether_Snake]

Link other than the discredited lists that have been floating around?

Yeah actually I remember that :lol

 

[numble]

Link other than the discredited lists that have been floating around?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/us/politics/14palin.html?_r=1&pagewanted=3&hp&oref=slogin

 

[GhaleonEB]

really? I was under the impression that Nate was keeping it as current as possible.

His model lags the impact of new polls, waiting for another poll to corroborate them. When multiple polls confirm a new shift, his model catches up quickly.

 

[StoOgE]

Guys, I really like fivethirtyeight.com and think its pretty nifty stuff, but it uses a mathematical equation to determine who will win the election. The polls are the data used in the equation, but its a hybrid of what the state polls show, what the national polls show and their interrelation.

538 also does *NOT* show the race as it is. It attempts to predict what the race will look like on election day. This is a brand new computation. We dont know if it works or not, it could be completely wrong. Nate seems like a smart guy who knows what he is talking about, but like any poll, until we see how it performs in the real world we wont know if it is reputable.

That said, what we do know is that it ignores polling data unless a deluge of corroborating polls starts to come out. So, for whatever reason it ignored the McCain bump for about a week. Now it is projecting the McCain bounce to take off like a rocket while the actual polls show it narrowing again. My guess is 538's numers are going to shift again.

The other problem is we just got a data dump of absolutely shit polls from Zogby Interactive. I wish Nate would just throw out the absolute crap polls like ZI.

 

[Gaborn]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/us/politics/14palin.html?_r=1&pagewanted=3&hp&oref=slogin

1. Was not about Twain, so that does not help his claim.

2. Was stated by a woman that was already her opponent, and by the former mayor she defeated.

3. Personal opinion, she's entitled to think a book is inappropriate and nothing suggests she attempted to remove it.

 

[Drek]

When the hell is this McCain RNC bump supposed to end?

1. 538 isn't that great of a source. Pollster.com at least averages multiple polls.

2. The numbers are all a big myth.

Remember back when this race first started in June and July? All the polls were "registered voters" and Obama was up by 10+ points most of the time, with a "likely voter" poll attached but clearly outlined as such.

Now that caveat of number tweaking has been taken away and the only polls people are being fed are "likely voter" polls, many of which are actually correcting for republican v. dem voting ratios from 2000 and 2004, despite the republican party declining in registered members with the democratic party soaring.

The media keeps selling us these fabricated numbers while they excuse their consciences with "well, young people and minorities never show up to vote, and these new registrants? Peh, wishy washy!" But those same groups showed up heavy in '06 and throughout the primaries.

They keep selling the same old song and dance because if they didn't no one would tune in and they'd stop receiving huge buckets of ad revenue.

When Nov. 4th rolls around and Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Florida, and Georgia (partially thanks to Barr) we'll see just how accurate all these polls really were.

 

[The Chosen One]

The funny thing is that if California kept to its old primary schedule, in June, instead of moving it to Super Tuesday, there would've been an epic primary contest in California as the last state in the primary season.

Good point. The primary season is really the opportunity to actually see the candidates. But we flubbed that up by moving the date to the same schedule as half the country, which meant we mostly got paid media instead of actual face-time with the candidates.

 

[Stoney Mason]

When Nov. 4th rolls around and Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Florida, and Georgia (partially thanks to Barr) we'll see just how accurate all these polls really were.

I applaud your enthusiasm but I have a feeling you will be pretty disappointed come Nov 4 on a lot of that.

 

[numble]

2. Was stated by a woman that was already her opponent, and by the former mayor she defeated.

Laura Chase, the campaign manager during Ms. Palin’s first run for mayor in 1996, recalled the night the two women chatted about her ambitions.

?????

 

[Gaborn]

I applaud your enthusiasm but I have a feeling you will be pretty disappointed come Nov 4 on a lot of that.

Yeah, even if Obama wins there's very little chance he's winning all of those.

Numble - Oops, I looked at the page but I couldn't find exactly who Chase was, she didn't seem particularly positive so I partially assumed. Again though, according to the report on Snopes, they checked 1984-present, no books were removed and no requests to have books removed were made for the Wasilla library.

 

[NetMapel]

Obama needs a Phelpsium right about now :lol

 

[The Lamonster]

When Nov. 4th rolls around and Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Florida, and Georgia (partially thanks to Barr) we'll see just how accurate all these polls really were.

helllllll yeah

 

[AniHawk]

I applaud your enthusiasm but I have a feeling you will be pretty disappointed come Nov 4 on a lot of that.

NM and CO. Those are my bets and I'm not changing my mind unless something catastrophically unexpected happens.

And I've also decided to go to Nevada for three days to help with the ground game. Because I think that has a real chance of going blue too. On the offchance he loses CO, NV would still be an unconventional win unless there's a faithless elector.

 

[GhaleonEB]

What I don't like about Fivethirtyeight's model is that they allocate out electoral votes based on mathematical models. I've always read their analysis and poll summaries and used pollster for an electoral map based on the polls. The only caveat with pollster.com is that they weight all polls the same, so Zogby Interactive gets the same weight as Rasmussen.

NM and CO. Those are my bets and I'm not changing my mind unless something catastrophically unexpected happens.

And I've also decided to go to Nevada for three days to help with the ground game. Because I think that has a real chance of going blue too.

NM, CO and IA plus Kerry states is all it takes. I think he'll take all three, and there's no way he loses any Kerry states.

 

[StoOgE]

Drek, while I generally agree that the pollsters who are basing their demographics off of 2000 and 2004 numbers are completely wrong, I dont think it is going to give Obama all of those states. My guess is Obama is going to outperform the national polls by about +3-5 from what we are seeing polled. The fact that some of these polls are assuming black turnout *below* 2004 levels makes me laugh.

That said, not all states are going to be effected the same way. Some of the swing states have smaller black and youth populations. So you cant say he is +3 in all states. I also think Georgia, North Carolina and Missouri are out of play at this point.

That said, no matter what Pollster says, NH, NM, IA and MI are all going Obama.

Its going to come down to can he win CO, VA, OH, FL or NV. Basically the map is still in Obamas favor, much like Kerry in 2004, McCain has to run the table.

 

[maximum360]

What I don't like about Fivethirtyeight's model is that they allocate out electoral votes based on mathematical models. I've always read their analysis and poll summaries and used pollster for an electoral map based on the polls. The only caveat with pollster.com is that they weight all polls the same, so Zogby Interactive gets the same weight as Rasmussen.


NM, CO and IA plus Kerry states is all it takes. I think he'll take all three, and there's no way he loses any Kerry states.

Agreed. That's probably Obama's best chance though he might pull out a squeaker in OH. If the GOTV efforst are really going well in VA, that might also be another option. Florida seems like a lost cause. 8 years of W. and several years state control by the republicans do not make confident in that state trending blue.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Wheels come off Straight Talk Express?

From NBC's Mark Murray

For a candidate who prides himself in "straight talk" -- and whose political image in part is based on that truth-telling reputation -- Saturday proved to be a brutal day for John McCain and his campaign.

First came a front-page New York Times piece noting that McCain "has drawn an avalanche of criticism this week from Democrats, independent groups and even some Republicans for regularly stretching the truth." There was also an accompanying fact-check of McCain's latest TV ad, which called it the "latest in a number that resort to a dubious disregard for the facts."

The Washington Post gave "four Pinnochios" to McCain's recent assertion on "The View" that Palin never took earmarks as Alaska governor. Then the Boston Globe reported that Palin didn't really travel inside Iraq as has been claimed. And Bloomberg News said that the McCain camp may not have been exactly truthful in estimating the size of its recent crowds. "Now officials say they can't substantiate the figures McCain's aides are claiming."

To top it off, McCain spokesman Brian Rogers said this to the Politico about the increased media scrutiny of the campaign's factual claims: "We’re running a campaign to win. And we’re not too concerned about what the media filter tries to say about it.”

Not surprisingly, the Obama camp has pounced on all this, issuing a memo to reporters entitled "Unraveling the myth of the Straight Talk Express." The memo argues, "Since naming Governor Palin as their vice presidential nominee, the McCain campaign has distorted, distracted, and outright lied to the American people about her record in a desperate attempt to hide the fact that a McCain/Palin Administration would be nothing more than a continuation of the failed Bush policies of the last eight years."

And it concludes, "While the media is slowly starting to call the McCain campaign on their dishonest tactics, McCain’s staff boasts that they don’t care. As a McCain spokesman told the Politico, 'We’re running a campaign to win. And we’re not too concerned about what the media filter tries to say about it.'"

Here's the memo. Holy freaking crap.

To: Press Corps
From: Obama Campaign
Re: Unraveling the myth of the Straight Talk Express

Since naming Governor Palin as their Vice Presidential nominee, the McCain campaign has distorted, distracted, and outright lied to the American people about her record in a desperate attempt to hide the fact that a McCain/Palin Administration would be nothing more than a continuation of the failed Bush policies of the last eight years.

Indeed, today alone we learned that the McCain campaign’s claim that Governor Palin traveled to Iraq is a lie. In fact, she didn’t cross the Kuwait border. We learned that the McCain campaign is desperate enough to tell the press phony crowd numbers, which they falsely attributed to local elected officials and the United States Secret Service. And we learned that despite Senator McCain’s claim that Governor Palin is a fiscal conservative, spending actually increased during her brief tenure as Governor.

Here are the facts. Governor Palin supported the Bridge to Nowhere, requested hundreds of millions of dollars in earmarks, never visited Iraq, increased spending as governor, increased taxes as governor, and was about as successful selling that luxury jet on eBay as the McCain campaign has been selling her reputation as a reformer. Oh yeah, and the gas pipeline she touts won’t be usable for at least a decade, if it’s completed at all.

While the media is slowly starting to call the McCain campaign on their dishonest tactics, McCain’s staff boasts that they don’t care. As a McCain spokesman told the Politico, “We’re running a campaign to win. And we’re not too concerned about what the media filter tries to say about it.”

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/13/1393986.aspx

 

[AniHawk]

Agreed. That's probably Obama's best chance though he might pull out a squeaker in OH. If the GOTV efforst are really going well in VA, that might also be another option. Florida seems like a lost cause. 8 years of W. and several years state control by the republicans do not make confident in that state trending blue.

Ed Koch endorsed Obama and Bill Clinton's going to campaign for Obama there, apparently. Might just do it. I think it's a lost cause too, but the more places to make the GOP waste money, the better.

 

[StoOgE]

Actually, looking at MT I am very impressed with Obama that it is still in play. Ive never been there, but my *very* conservative friend just got back from Glacier national park and said that the entire state seems to be filled with Obama and Paul fans. I think that Ron Paul and Bob Barr both being on the ballot is going to really help him in the state.

I think the fact that the math just makes it smaller EV number almost uselss to Obama. The only way it helps is if Obama picks up *only* MT and NV, which might put him over. But I dont see him taking those two states if he doesnt also take CO, which makes them moot at that point (since CO would put him over the top).

 

[mj1108]

Here's the memo. Holy freaking crap.



http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/13/1393986.aspx

and was about as successful selling that luxury jet on eBay as the McCain campaign has been selling her reputation as a reformer. Oh yeah, and the gas pipeline she touts won’t be usable for at least a decade, if it’s completed at all.

Ouch! :lol

Good to see Obama swinging hard with facts!

 

[The Lamonster]

Here's the memo. Holy freaking crap.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/13/1393986.aspx

wow, very nice!

That is the change we need


Biden: "We're not gonna give 'em hell. We're gonna give 'em the TRUTH. And they'll THINK it's hell!"

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Here's the memo. Holy freaking crap.



http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/13/1393986.aspx

Good, now most of the media could (should) turn against them. They aren't even interested in telling the truth. That is the only thing that they are being honest about.

 

[kevm3]

This so called, it's just the convention bounce talk needs to stop. Obama is trending negative and he needs to do something to fix it.

 

[AniHawk]

Actually, looking at MT I am very impressed with Obama that it is still in play. Ive never been there, but my *very* conservative friend just got back from Glacier national park and said that the entire state seems to be filled with Obama and Paul fans. I think that Ron Paul and Bob Barr both being on the ballot is going to really help him in the state.

I think the fact that the math just makes it smaller EV number almost uselss to Obama. The only way it helps is if Obama picks up *only* MT and NV, which might put him over. But I dont see him taking those two states if he doesnt also take CO, which makes them moot at that point (since CO would put him over the top).

I have a fear of an elector giving an EC vote to Hillary. The more states, the better.

 

[StoOgE]

Agreed. That's probably Obama's best chance though he might pull out a squeaker in OH. If the GOTV efforst are really going well in VA, that might also be another option. Florida seems like a lost cause. 8 years of W. and several years state control by the republicans do not make confident in that state trending blue.

Maybe I'm just overly optomistic, but I still think Obama wins OH by 3-4 points at the end of the day.

I think FL is probably McCains, but the registration numbers there are enough to make me not throw it out now. It could be a case of *likely* voters in these polls ignoring all the new registered voters.

 

[Hootie]

Obama needs a Phelpsium right about now :lol

The battle for Phelps Phamous Comedy Tokens will be quite the spectacle.

 

[AniHawk]

This so called, it's just the convention bounce talk needs to stop. Obama is trending negative and he needs to do something to fix it.

They're going after McCain's integrity now in a way they never did against Clinton. McCain needs to be painted as an out of touch liar, and that's exactly what Obama's campaign is trying to do. And he has the facts to back him up.

 

[StoOgE]

This so called, it's just the convention bounce talk needs to stop. Obama is trending negative and he needs to do something to fix it.

Have you seen the newer polls? They are trending back to Obama. It is a convention bounce and it is ending. The Palin effect stealing all of the attention helped him too. Wait till the debates then freak out.

 

[mj1108]

They're going after McCain's integrity now in a way they never did against Clinton. McCain needs to be painted as an out of touch liar, and that's exactly what Obama's campaign is trying to do. And he has the facts to back him up.

That is probably why he was quiet there for a little bit.... let everything build up and then WHAM -- hit him good and hit him hard.

I await the Obama 30 second commercial called "Lies" -- where it'll be nothing but video of McCain/Palin telling lies with the truth in text below.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Have you seen the newer polls? They are trending back to Obama. It is a convention bounce and it is ending. The Palin effect stealing all of the attention helped him too. Wait till the debates then freak out.

Yeah, plus palin's negativity numbers are greater than all 4 people involved.

 

[StoOgE]

That is probably why he was quiet there for a little bit.... let everything build up and then WHAM -- hit him good and hit him hard.

I await the Obama 30 second commercial called "Lies" -- where it'll be nothing but video of McCain/Palin telling lies with the truth in text below.

They have made a similar ad already. I think you are partially right, Obama and co let McCain tell all of these lies over and over again so they became known by the general public. That way, when they all turn out to be lies, the impact will be that much greater.

I think the "I went to Iraq" thing is going to bite them harder than any of the other stuff.

I think by the time we get to the first of the debates, McCain and Palins negatives will be 10 points higher than they are now.

 

[AniHawk]

Obama's gonna have to release a "I will cut more taxes for middle class and working class families than John McCain" commercial though. I think that's the biggest thing about the economy and the biggest McCain lie that hurts him right now.

 

[Rugasuki]

Has this been posted already? I don't think I saw it... Pretty hard hitting piece by the Obama Campaign.

Edit: You guys posted to a shortened version while I was making this post, but this links to the entire thing.

Obama Camp Memo on The Straight Talk Express

Since naming Governor Palin as their Vice Presidential nominee, the McCain campaign has distorted, distracted, and outright lied to the American people about her record in a desperate attempt to hide the fact that a McCain/Palin Administration would be nothing more than a continuation of the failed Bush policies of the last eight years.

Indeed, today alone we learned that the McCain campaign’s claim that Governor Palin traveled to Iraq is a lie. In fact, she didn’t cross the Kuwait border. We learned that the McCain campaign is desperate enough to tell the press phony crowd numbers, which they falsely attributed to local elected officials and the United States Secret Service. And we learned that despite Senator McCain’s claim that Governor Palin is a fiscal conservative, spending actually increased during her brief tenure as Governor.

Here are the facts. Governor Palin supported the Bridge to Nowhere, requested hundreds of millions of dollars in earmarks, never visited Iraq, increased spending as governor, increased taxes as governor, and was about as successful selling that luxury jet on eBay as the McCain campaign has been selling her reputation as a reformer. Oh yeah, and the gas pipeline she touts won’t be usable for at least a decade, if it’s completed at all.

While the media is slowly starting to call the McCain campaign on their dishonest tactics, McCain’s staff boasts that they don’t care. As a McCain spokesman told the Politico, “We’re running a campaign to win. And we’re not too concerned about what the media filter tries to say about it.”

To help you cut through their lies and spin, below are the facts you need to set the record straight.

Check the link for it's discussion of many of the falsities claimed by the McCain camp.


http://thepage.time.com/obama-camp-memo-on-the-straight-talk-express/

 

[numble]

That is probably why he was quiet there for a little bit.... let everything build up and then WHAM -- hit him good and hit him hard.

I await the Obama 30 second commercial called "Lies" -- where it'll be nothing but video of McCain/Palin telling lies with the truth in text below.

He has to avoid doing something like this though, because voters didn't find the ad effective:

http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/commercials/1988/counterpunch

 

[Hitokage]

Rugasuki: ON THIS VERY PAGE, GENIUS

...and it took you 20 minutes to post that?

 

[Rugasuki]

ON THIS VERY PAGE, GENIUS

I was reading it and then posting the post while those appeared. Mine also links to the entire memo and not the shortened MSNBC version. Sorry for offending you.