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[grandjedi6]

Whenever I get down I always remember what better shape we are in at this stage versus 2004 final results.

Bush:286 Kerry:251


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/e/e2/ElectoralCollege2004.svg/800px-ElectoralCollege2004.svg.png[IMG]

[B]2008[/B]

[IMG]http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Pngs/Sep05.png[IMG][/QUOTE]

So awesome. Though I still have no clue what McCain's plan is

[QUOTE=Guy Legend]Missouri will go Obama/Biden. We will not let the country down this time. [img]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v500/EvilTaru/angry.gif

Actually I think this is the year where Missouri's track record will be ruined

 

[Iksenpets]

Question, how often does the electoral count change for each state? I.e. How often do they adjust for population?

Every 10 years with the census. So it'll be a different map for 2012.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Went to the Nader Rally last night in Minneapolis at Orchestral Hall.

The line-up was pretty packed and there was some really great tunes.

Started off with some music...some local guys doing their own acts of songs they wrote...pretty good.

Then Rosa Clemente, the Green Party VP candidate, came out and gave a long-winded speech but she made a great point that Palin dissed every community organizer across the country in her speech Wednesday night. Clemente added there would be chaos in the streets without community organizers and Palin is a "nazi" for dissing them.

Next up was Jesse Ventura...Minnesota's former governor talking about how he was at 10 percent in the polls before the debates but that once he got in the debates he was neck in neck with Norm Coleman(MN's US senator that is about to lose to Al Franken) and Skip Humphrey in 98. Ventura edged out Coleman 37-34-28. Just think what Ralph could do if he were in the debates!!!

Up next was Nellie McKay I believe...an adorable singer who has 3 albums out it appears. She dissed Palin and McCain and gave off some cool songs...especially one about zombies. Haha...

Next up was Matt Gonzales, Nader's VP. This man is beyond awesome. Best speaker of the night. The guy just is engaging and didn't have any notes whatsoever it seemed...just gave a great speech on how he has more experience with #s of people of Palin and Biden combined. He oversaw 6 million people and its budget as working on San Fran's board of directors or whatever the hell did back in the day. He also dissed Obama for misrepresenting the fact that he only needed 40 more senators plus himself to stop the war...as he could have held it up by way of fillibuster with 41 votes...but instead misrepresented that he needed 67 senators to stop the war which is in fact false. Anyhow, the way his speech ended was just perfect...you gotta see it...as the whole event(I believe the whole event) was taped and should be on Nader's website votenader.org. He just kind of casually went off the stage in awkward yet very effective way...as I said you gotta see it.

Then the MC revealed himself...it was a member of 98 Degrees...he brought out one of his band mates and they sung Invisible Man(dedicated to Ralph as seen through the eyes of the media) and their big hit..."It's the hardest thing I'll ever have to do, to look you in the eyes and tell you I don't love you." They were actually pretty good...wasn't much a fan of the band before but those guys were pretty cool.

Ralph came out and spoke. He made some good points...not the most dynamic speaker out there(see Gonzalez)...but it was decent. Acknowledged the fact he isn't going to win but made a great case for how the Republicans and Democrats don't even talk about the real issues. Said next week Paul, Barr, McKinney and himself were going to hold a joint press conference on 4 issues they all agree upon...and the Reps and Dems don't....one of which being against their horrible foreign policy.

Then some schmuck came out and started a backwards auction...a couple of people donated $2300...a few at $1,000 and $500 and ten or so at $100...which the latter I was a member of. My prize was a copy of an Ralph's DVD an unreasonable man. Which I later got him to sign one of the discs and then I mentioned where he would put Kucinich in his Administration and he said very high up. Not a very detailed answer...but whatever...I spoke to Ralph Nader!!! =)

Anyhow...after the guy got off the stage...Ralph answered Q and A's and then signed autographs...and that was it. A pretty good show...if you have the chance you should watch it online...I'm not sure where it starts off at...but the music was really really good and Matt Gonzalez is awesome!

I also bought a button...that someone stole as I took it off and put it on a counter top as I put on the Nader-Gonzalez shirt I bought also. Thank goodness I got paid today!

 

[Learn2read]

Small state/Big state compromise. It is what it is and we are never going to get rid of it so we just have to deal.

Not necessarily, the problem with a state giving up it's all or nothing for a proportional share of it's electoral votes is that is unilaterally disarming, which no matter how uncompromising you are, you just don't do.

I wish I could find a link but basically the plan is that a law would be passed that a state would agree to proportional voting if and only if enough other states also agree. that there total would be 270. I think that's how it works anyways. I believe it's passed in a few states and is proposed in a few more.

 

[ViperVisor]

6min 30sec
down to 45sec

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I don't recall seeing this

Biden to vigorously challenge Palin on issues

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isDJtCHPKjJvOsYCKA2V3xFub3RgD9305778B

VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. (AP) — Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden said Thursday that he will vigorously challenge his Republican counterpart Sarah Palin on the issues, but will refrain from personal attacks.

Biden made the remarks Thursday in response to a question from a woman who attended his forum on national security and veterans issues in military-heavy Virginia Beach. The questioner said she realized it's tricky for a male candidate to debate a woman but implored Biden to "please promise me you'll go after her the same way...."

The rest of the question was downed out by applause and cheers.

"The way I was raised is: I never, ever, ever attack the other person," Biden said, adding that probably was not what many his fellow Democrats want to hear. "I will take issue with her as strongly as I can."

 

[Stoney Mason]

So awesome. Though I still have no clue what McCain's plan is



Actually I think this is the year where Missouri's track record will be ruined

The nice thing is we genuinely have a couple of paths this year rather than just wishing we did. If he flips Ohio that's it right there although I have a feeling that will be tough. But even still if we lose that flipping Colorado, Iowa, and getting 3 more votes from some other mix of states also wins the election. So I'm liking where Obama is at this stage in the election.

 

[Stoney Mason]

Not necessarily, the problem with a state giving up it's all or nothing for a proportional share of it's electoral votes is that is unilaterally disarming, which no matter how uncompromising you are, you just don't do.

I wish I could find a link but basically the plan is that a law would be passed that a state would agree to proportional voting if and only if enough other states also agree. that there total would be 270. I think that's how it works anyways. I believe it's passed in a few states and is proposed in a few more.

That makes sense.

The all or nothing system certainly allows battleground states to wield an enormous amount of sway and influence. Which is why a state like Ohio is so pivotal.

 

[Deku]

Where was Kerry at, same time last election?

 

[Stoney Mason]

Where was Kerry at, same time last election?

I'm too lazy to dig out polls but I seem to remember Kerry mostly trailed Bush on the national level except for small periods. I think someone may have pulled a polling map earlier in the thread although to be fair the dynamics are so different this time around, I'm not sure 2004 is all that relevant.

 

[thekad]

Referencing this from today.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26563623#26561783

:lol Wow.

And the plane thing has been proven false? Where?

 

[Learn2read]

That makes sense.

The all or nothing system certainly allows battleground states to wield an enormous amount of sway and influence. Which is why a state like Ohio is so pivotal.

As I was typing that it wasn't quite making sense to me, as even if a bunch of states agreed to proportional votes, those that didn't would still be wield too much influence.

I forgot that the kicker was that all of these states (with a total of 270+) would agree that the winner of the proportional vote between all them would get ALL of their votes, rendering the other states moot.

 

[CharlieDigital]

For devilhawk:

From "Barack Obama's Plan for Lifetime Success Through Education" (section VII, page 15):

We currently make inadequate investments into researching and developing better educational tools and methods. While we spend roughly $400 billion annually in this country on public education, we spend less than seven tenths of one percent of that – $260 million – figuring out what actually works. By comparison, the Department of Defense spends roughly ten percent of its annual budget on research and development (R&D). And the National Institutes for Health spends roughly 100 times the amount we spend on educational R&D. Those investments are what give America the most advanced military and medical systems in the world.

As president, Barack Obama will double our investment in early education and educational R&D by the end of his first term in office. Part of this investment will involve an R&D program for improving science education. This new program will build knowledge about strategies and mechanism that can bring lasting improvements to science and math and technology education.

Obama believes that we’re not going to solve our education problems just by throwing money at them; we have to make smart investments in innovating long-term solutions and developing a deep knowledge of what works. He will also ensure that the results of this research are disseminated and easily
accessible to the public.

Just for you, k?

Edit: :lol lulz for emphasis

 

[grandjedi6]

Where was Kerry at, same time last election?

 

[Crisis]

Thank you kindly.

 

[Deku]

I'm too lazy to dig out polls but I seem to remember Kerry mostly trailed Bush on the national level except for small periods. I think someone may have pulled a polling map earlier in the thread although to be fair the dynamics are so different this time around, I'm not sure 2004 is all that relevant.

I thought Kerry was consistently ahead until the swiftboat ads.

 

[thekad]

I see Stoney has finally come around. Welcome to the dark side.

 

[grandjedi6]

I thought Kerry was consistently ahead until the swiftboat ads.

Oh no, Kerry was defintely the underdog the entire election.

 

[Bajan32]

So i get home from work yesterday, and all around my house, there's just all kinds of traffic and a couple ghetto birds hovering around..

Im like oh shit hope my apartment aint burning down or something...
All the excitement finally fades away last nite..

then i see the mail lady at lunch today...
She then proceeds to ask me if i saw all the craziness yesterday.
I said yeah but wasnt sure what the hell was going on...

to which she responds.. Yeah Obama's campaign headquarters just opened yesterday.
1 block down the road from my apartment!!!!!

I am so god damn excited, gonna head over there after work or at some point this weekend to sign up/donate/register...

After this weeks travesty of the RepCon, I am even more determined to do something to help The Big O pull this off.

 

[Stoney Mason]

I thought Kerry was consistently ahead until the swiftboat ads.

I'm trying to find a month to month polling graph but can't seem to. My recollection was that Kerry was behind. Pulled ahead for a short time but then Bush pulled ahead permanently and never gave up the lead although that is just from my hazy memory and I could easily be wrong.

EDIT: I see grandjedi6 posted an older electoral map. Striking to see the difference.

 

[TDG]

Does anybody know why Obama/Biden '08 yard signs aren't on sale yet? I've been wanting to get one, but they're still not avalible anywhere.

 

[3rdman]

Oh no, Kerry was defintely the underdog the entire election.

...and he ran a very uninspired campaign. I still remember the moment he really lost it...Bush (to reporters) asked if Kerry would answer whether or not he would have voted for the war if he knew everything he knew now.

To me, this was an easy question to answer: "Hell no!" is what I would say and lace into Bush for lying us into a war. Instead he said Yes, I'd vote the same...It was like watching someone castrate himself on national television. He then went on a long winded explanation about what he really means but all Bush would acknowledge was his admission and say, "he agrees with me."

Obama on the other hand seems to really be on his feet and avoid a lot of the verbal gaffes that plagued Kerry's campaign. Here's hoping it continues!

 

[Learn2read]

For those that talk about Obama's followers thinking he's Jesus:

...

The notable difference, not just in the speeches but in the entirety of the two conventions, was that it is McCain who stands alone. He is the one whose platform is his own personal melodrama, the moment of doubt and pain after which, “I was never the same again. I wasn’t my own man anymore. I was my country’s.” He’s the one whose introductory video declared that he “was chosen for this moment,” and “the stars are aligned” for his victory. Who’s the messiah, now?

...

Good article.

 

[Stoney Mason]

I see Stoney has finally come around. Welcome to the dark side.

I was always going to vote for him (in the presidential election I mean) and I always quite liked him. I just didn't like some of the attacks that went on back in the day but the past is the past and there is no reason not to try as hard as possible to get him elected over any Republican at this stage.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Obama takeing ND? Neva in a gazillion years.

The last three polls have all had Obama and McCain within three points of each other, the last one with Obama ahead. They've never been more than six apart.

Bush won ND 63-35.

This is not your normal election. Preconceptions need to be changed.

 

[Killthee]

:lol Wow.

And the plane thing has been proven false? Where?

The state has tried selling its unwanted jet online four times and failed. So last week, the Palin administration signed a contract with an Anchorage aircraft broker who thinks he can succeed where eBay couldn't The eBay thing didn't work out very well, said Dan Spencer, director of administrative services for the Department of Public Safety. He's the person charged with trying to get rid of the infamous Westwind II.

http://www.adn.com/sarah-palin/story/203814.html

After going unsold for months, the jet was put into the hands of Turbo North Aviation, an Anchorage aircraft broker, which put an asking price of $2.45 million on the nearly $2.7 million jet. It quickly sold to Alaska businessman Larry Reynolds for $2.1 million ($31,000 of which went to Turbo Aviation). Today the Westwind II jet spends its days ushering wealthy hunters around Alaska and Russia

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/04/sarah-palins-strange-ebay_n_124097.html

 

[avaya]

The last three polls have all had Obama and McCain within three points of each other, the last one with Obama ahead. They've never been more than six apart.

Bush won ND 63-35.

This is not your normal election. Preconceptions need to be changed.

Ghaleon, have you posted your voter registrations spreadsheet yet?

 

[Nabs]

Referencing this from today.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26563623#26561783

:lol @ the "Read My Lip-stick" sign

 

[Learn2read]

If there's any good 'shoppers in here that could put Obama's and McCain's head on my Avatar, I'll rock it till the election.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Ghaleon, have you posted your voter registrations spreadsheet yet?

I posted bits and pieces. I'll round them up later.

 

[avaya]

I posted bits and pieces. I'll round them up later.

Look forward to it.

 

[SpeedingUptoStop]

The Biden speech today was fantastic.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26563623#26563623

There are so many reasons why this speech is amazing. Holy fucking shit, he actually said everything i wanted him to say. You guys oughta forward this to everyone you can.

 

[adamsappel]

Yes, I believe she is an idiot. Perhaps we have different definitions of the term. She clearly is a functional member of society, and has made wealth for herself, but at the same time is hoping to make Alaska a functional refuge during the rapture, and is being sheltered from press exposure to a level not seen since Dan POTATOE Quayle. Idiot.

What?

In the same way that Obama faced criticism for having Reverend Wright as a spiritual mentor, Sarah Palin's Pentecostal minister of her former church has some out-there ideas. He said that Alaska was going to be a place of refuge during the last days. You know, the Rapture, Tribulation, etc. Kooky stuff.

 

[LuCkymoON]

For those that talk about Obama's followers thinking he's Jesus:



Good article.

Yah I caught that too. at one point in the documentary the narrator says "McCain survived, perhaps he had more to do?" It was stated in a very divine way.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Look forward to it.

Here are the ones I posted earlier today:

Iowa.

Interestingly, total voter registrations are down ~20k from 2004. Iowa has been having folks move out of the state, which might explain it. But there's been a swing in the partisan registrations:

In November 2004, there were 4,402 more registered Republicans than Democrats. Bush carried the state by just a few thousand votes. Now, there are 94,225 more registered Democrats than Republicans - nearly a 100,000 person swing. Some of that came before the January caucuses, but not all - Dems gained a net 60,000 since the end of January. So most of the swing came AFTER the caucuses.

Pollster has Iowa deep blue this year, and that looks about right.

Virginia

Bush beat Kerry by 262,217 votes in 2004.

Since the end of November of that year 225,834 new voters registered, nearly all of them this year. Virginia does not have partistan voter registration, but if they follow the partisan trends in other states (like neighboring North Carolina), that's going to be about 95%+ Democrats. They're averaging nearly 30,000 new voters per month. If that keeps up, new voter registrations will be enough to close the gap Kerry had.

And that's before higher black turnout, and assuming a spike in last-minute registrations, etc.

North Carolina

Kerry lost this state by 435,317 votes.

Since November 2004, there have been 401,174 new voter registrations:

Dem: 100,939
GOP: 36,819
Unaffiliated: 275,356

Side note: since the start of 2008, 20k Republicans and 171k Democrats have registered.

(Registered Democrats dropped from 2004 to the start of 2008.)

I just realized the spreadsheet is on my laptop, so I'll do some more later.

Most states have voter registration statistics and archives of them. I just google "iowa voter registration" sans quotes and check the government site, for example. I'm just dumping data on about a dozen states and seeing what the trends are.

 

[thekad]

Thanks Killthee. If there was some type of video disproving her assertions, this could turn into the next Bosnia :lol

 

[Rugasuki]

Yikes, if true...

http://www.laprogressive.com/2008/09/05/alaskans-speak-in-a-frightened-whisper-palin-is-%E2%80%9Cracist-sexist-vindictive-and-mean%E2%80%9D/

Alaskans Speak (In A Frightened Whisper): Palin Is “Racist, Sexist, Vindictive, And Mean”

 

[SpeedingUptoStop]

6min 30sec
down to 45sec

They must be trying to run the least exciting campaign in history. jeez.

And I saw the first half minute of that speech. When she took Obama's quote completely out of context, I was so disgusted I had to turn it off.

 

[hokahey]

Missouri will go Obama/Biden. We will not let the country down this time.

Do we live in the same state?

Although, Obama could take the McCaskill route to victory. Win STL, KC and Columbia. He's going to have to close the gap a bit though. Latest MO polls are not encouraging.

 

[AniHawk]

What's CO look like?

 

[avaya]

Here are the ones I posted earlier today:







I just realized the spreadsheet is on my laptop, so I'll do some more later.

Most states have voter registration statistics and archives of them. I just google "iowa voter registration" sans quotes and check the government site, for example. I'm just dumping data on about a dozen states and seeing what the trends are.

Really appreciate this! This is probably the real story behind the election while we sift through the daily noise.

 

[mj1108]

Yikes, if true...

http://www.laprogressive.com/2008/09/05/alaskans-speak-in-a-frightened-whisper-palin-is-%E2%80%9Cracist-sexist-vindictive-and-mean%E2%80%9D/

Alaskans Speak (In A Frightened Whisper): Palin Is “Racist, Sexist, Vindictive, And Mean”

From the link above:

Alaskans Speak (In A Frightened Whisper): Palin Is “Racist, Sexist, Vindictive, And Mean”
September 5, 2008

"So Sambo beat the bitch!”

This is how Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin described Barack Obama’s win over Hillary Clinton to political colleagues in a restaurant a few days after Obama locked up the Democratic Party presidential nomination.

According to Lucille, the waitress serving her table at the time and who asked that her last name not be used, Gov. Palin was eating lunch with five or six people when the subject of the Democrat’s primary battle came up. The governor, seemingly not caring that people at nearby tables would likely hear her, uttered the slur and then laughed loudly as her meal mates joined in appreciatively.

“It was kind of disgusting,” Lucille, who is part Aboriginal, said in a phone interview after admitting that she is frightened of being discovered telling folks in the “lower 48” about life near the North Pole.

Then, almost with a sigh, she added, “But that’s just Alaska.”

Racial and ethnic slurs may be “just Alaska” and, clearly, they are common, everyday chatter for Palin.

Besides insulting Obama with a Step-N’-Fetch-It, “darkie musical” swipe, people who know her say she refers regularly to Alaska’s Aboriginal people as “Arctic Arabs” – how efficient, lumping two apparently undesirable groups into one ugly description – as well as the more colourful “mukluks” along with the totally unimaginative “f**king Eskimo’s,” according to a number of Alaskans and Wasillians interviewed for this article.

But being openly racist is only the tip of the Palin iceberg. According to Alaskans interviewed for this article, she is also vindictive and mean. We’re talking Rove mean and Nixon vindictive.

No wonder the vast sea of white, cheering faces at the Republican Convention went wild for Sarah: They adore the type, it’s in their genetic code. So much for McCain’s pledge of a “high road” campaign; Palin is incapable of being part of one.

hahahaha... damn! Only a matter of time before a video is out there of her being racist.

 

[CharlieDigital]

What's CO look like?

I've been trying to find an electoral map for Utah (most of my coworkers are out there) but haven't been able to find anything. I'd be interested if anyone can provide a link to one of those fancy pants color coded charts.

 

[Diablos]

Yikes, if true...

http://www.laprogressive.com/2008/09/05/alaskans-speak-in-a-frightened-whisper-palin-is-%E2%80%9Cracist-sexist-vindictive-and-mean%E2%80%9D/

Alaskans Speak (In A Frightened Whisper): Palin Is “Racist, Sexist, Vindictive, And Mean”

Don't be fooled by her appearance, America. She's totally corrupt...

 

[Zeliard]

From the link above:



hahahaha... damn! Only a matter of time before a video is out there of her being racist.

Well, let's be fair. Obama is the first black man that Palin has ever seen.

 

[Stoney Mason]

I've been trying to find an electoral map for Utah (most of my coworkers are out there) but haven't been able to find anything. I'd be interested if anyone can provide a link to one of those fancy pants color coded charts.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 

[Door2Dawn]

Sambo? The hell is that?

 

[Diablos]

Sambo? The hell is that?

...

 

[HolyStar]

It is so weird that in America our public schools suck but our colleges rock. Oh well college is what really matters in the end.

 

[thekad]

LAProgressive? Um...