A side note to all the Presidential talk here-has anyone noticed that the Democratic chances in the Senate have been absolutely surging over the last couple of weeks?
VA, NM, NH- These takeaways are done deals.
CO, AK - Both, even with Palin on the ticket, are going to be very hard for the GOP to win. CO is ground zero for the Obama campaign, and Ted Stevens is under indictment and his trial will be held in Alaska and likely last through most of October.
So that's +5, and these are the 'tier 1' contested Senate races. Note that the GOP has no credible tier 1 matchups and is spending all their money on defense this cycle. The RNC hung them out to dry because McCain's campaign is dirty poor, and the RSCC fundraising is anemic compared to Schumer's DSCC operation.
So that leaves the Tier 2 races:
North Carolina-No Clear Favorite by CQ, polling has shown that Hagan is running a few points ahead of Obama and Dole is as bad a campaigner as she is a Senator. If Obama can bring out the votes, there's a good chance Schumer gets a mega-scalp in taking down one of the GOP leadership.
Oregon - Polling is now almost a total dead heat, and the incumbent Republican is getting beat down badly. If Obama surges at the polls and drives turnout as high as is to be expected given the convention viewerships, Smith's doomed in the same way that Whitehouse sunk Chafee-pin the popular blue state Senator to the unpopular GOP leadership, watch him sink.
Minnesota - As expected, this race is quickly turning into the nastiest Senate race in the country. You can't put Norm Coleman and Al Franken against each other without expecting the sparks to fly, and it's sending both candidates into the toilet in terms of approval. This is another case though where a strong, Obama-fueled turnout in a blue state (don't kid yourself, MN is going to wind up +5-+8 Obama when the election results come in) swamps an unpopular GOP senator, even with a oddball DFL candidate like Coleman.
The wicker/musgrove race in Mississippi defies most logic and the race continues to be really close, and is also a No Clear Favorite race in CQ Politics.
It's always been a stretch between +5 and +7 gains in the Senate, and now it's looking like +7 might be the more likely choice. A +7 gain would give the Democrats room to boot Lieberman from his chairmanship and still have a commanding majority in the chamber.
