This morning I ran into a colleague at the town coffee joint. We agreed that during the heat of a presidential race, polls influenced our mood strongly. If thats generally true, then I sense some moods shifting out there.
National polls (Diageo, Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, ARG, Reuters) conducted 9/11-16 give a median of Obama leading by 2.0 +/- 1.1%, a 4-point swing toward Obama compared with McCains post-convention peak last week. However, its not clear what this means for the race. Just as McCains bounce was disproportionately concentrated in red states, this unbounce might also not be evenly distributed. We wont know until next week.
Hypothetically, if McCains losses are all in deep-red states, then his electoral chances arent changing much. Could this be the case? One clue can be found in the continuing decline of Palins approval numbers. She currently has the worst favorable-unfavorable spread among Obama, McCain, Biden, and herself. I predicted on the day of the announcement that her candidacy wouldnt wear well. A lot of substantive information is emerging: her lack of familiarity with issues, including energy; possible abuses of power; her attempt to ban books; and her lack of belief in human contributions to global warming and even perhaps whether dinosaurs preceded humans on Earth.
And then of course there is the candidate himself. McCain is having well-known difficulties with telling the truth. Also, yesterday he repeated his line that the fundamentals of the economy are strong in the face of the implosion of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and AIG, the last of which is 80% owned by U.S. taxpayers as of today.
These facts arent likely to hurt McCains support among party loyalists. If his losses are among independent voters, it would hurt him in battleground states. Thats bad news for him. Or he might be slipping back uniformly all over the U.S., which would be an easier place from which to recover.
My suspicion is that the EV estimate at the top of this page, which are based on the most recent state polls, represent a high-water mark for the McCain campaign - at least for now.