The Bush Administration's tax cut didn't increase investment and savings
Posted Sep 8th 2008 11:40AM by Joseph Lazzaro
Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum gently reminds us that not every tax cut achieves its intended effect.
Case study: The 2001 Bush Administration federal income tax cut, which included a cut in the marginal tax rate to 35% from 39.6%. The Bush Administration touted it as a tax cut that would increase incentives to invest, save and work.
The result? The tax cut didn't work: saving and investment have been "anemic" during the Bush years, Baum said, citing data provided by Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago. Business investment is down, the savings rate is at a post-World War II low. Further, the labor participation rate has declined.
No guarantee tax cut would be invested in U.S.
But why didn't cutting the top marginal rate do all of the good things the Bush Administration touted? Economist Peter Dawson said the reason is the tax cut's inherent flaw.
"The tax cut contained the mistaken belief that rich taxpayers would invest their money and invest in the right way, in the U.S., to increase GDP," Dawson said. "There was no guarantee that they would do that. Someone who is rich could invest the money in Brazil or India, with little benefit for the United States."
Further, regarding GDP growth, government investments in infrastructure, education and basic research would have increased U.S. GDP by a far greater amount than cutting the tax rate to 35%, Dawson said. The reason? "Those public investments will simultaneously increase the nation's productive capacity and make sustainable growth more likely by expanding the pool of employees with good-paying jobs," Dawson said. "Absent an increase in good-paying jobs, sustained GDP growth is not possible. And in case any one hasn't noticed, the reason the U.S. economy is stalling now is that we're running out of consumers, basically running out of employees with good-paying jobs."
Economic Analysis: The 2001 Bush Administration' reduction of the marginal tax rate to 35% did achieve one goal: it granted a large tax cut to rich and very-rich Americans, a primary constituent group in the Republican Party. But in the process it increased the U.S. budget deficit and national debt at a time of increased spending for wars and for security, and it also caused the dollar to plunge. The view from here is that the tax cut will have to be reversed, and public investment in infrastructure, education, and basic research increased in order to achieve sustainable growth in these United States.