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PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts

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mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
RapeApe said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cx7GU3RiEPo

Looks like Wright commercials were already running.

It's unclear how long the ad has been running, and how big the buy is, but The New York Times reports this morning that the spot is running in Macomb County, Michigan, a stronghold of white, unionized auto workers -- the latest in a wave of very targeted advertising by outside groups that appear to have been set up for the sole purpose of sliming Obama in one way or another.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/right_wing_group_running_ad_in.php
Click to expand...


And Obama is still leading by 3% in Michigan.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/banking-expert-bailout-not-necessary.html

Banking Expert: Bailout Not Necessary, Industry Can Take Losses

One of the premises of the bailout bill is that the banking industry must have government help to get back on its feet.

A banking industry expert, Bert Ely, who has a stellar track record in predicting crises and calling false alarms says that the banking industry can handle this mess internally and does not need subsidies.

[...]

There is absolutely no need for the Treasury to have the authority, as you suggested, to "inject capital into solvent banks that are temporarily unable to raise new capital." If a bank truly is solvent, it can raise additional capital or sell itself, if its present owners are realistic about what their bank is worth. The reason solvent banks have a problem raising capital, or selling themselves to a stronger bank, is that they set their price too high, as did AIG. As an aside, I am glad to see AIG's shareholders getting whacked by the warrants associated with the Fed's taxpayer's loan to AIG. There is absolutely no need for the taxpayer to subsidize banks so they can stay independent, provided no barriers are erected to prevent new entrants into bank or specific banking markets.
Click to expand...
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
gkrykewy said:
Not fair to the consumers who aren't retardedly in debt.
Click to expand...

But who is this current bailout fair too? Consumers who aren't retardedly in debt are STILL going to be on the hook with the current proposal.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Incognito said:
Little rash to hold a public media call over the results of one poll, I think...
Click to expand...
Especially with the WSJ/NBC poll out in a few hours.

Have they done this before? I don't remember damage control on polls coming from the McCain camp like this.
 
A

artredis1980

Banned
Why cell phones matter now in polling

09-23-2008_PRC-cell-phones.jpg


In each case, including cell phone interviews resulted in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain, a consistent difference of two-to-three points in the margin.
Click to expand...

Traditional landline surveys are typically weighted to compensate for age and other demographic differences, but the process depends on the assumption that the people reached over landlines are similar politically to their cell-only counterparts. These surveys suggest that this assumption is increasingly questionable, particularly among younger people. [...]

In the pooled [August-September] data, cell-only young people are considerably less likely than young people reached by landline to identify with or lean to the Republican Party, and even less likely to say they support John McCain. Among landline respondents under age 30, there is an 18-point gap in party identification - 54% identify or lean Democratic while 36% are Republican. Among the cell-only respondents under age 30, there is a 34-point gap - 62% are Democrats, 28% Republican. The difference among registered voters on the horserace is similar: 39% of registered voters under 30 reached by landline favor McCain, compared with just 27% of cell-only respondents. Obama is backed by 52% of landline respondents under 30, compared with 62% of the cell-only.
Click to expand...

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pew_research_missing_cellphone.php
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Incognito said:
Little rash to hold a public media call over the results of one poll, I think...
Click to expand...

I just think they wanted to reassure thier supporters that they aren't panicking, to keep confidence and enthusiasm up with their volunteers.

That being said, The fact that it had Obama above 50% without any influence from convention bouncing has to be worrysome. Also, if donors get spooked and start to think that McCain is on the way to lose badly, they'll start throwing money at Ensign and the close Senate campagins instead.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Incognito said:
Little rash to hold a public media call over the results of one poll, I think...
Click to expand...


But it's not really just one poll. It's been like 15 polls. Obama leading in VA, tied in NC, Basically tied in FL, down by just 3 points in Indiana, and up by 4-9 points nationally.

And all of this with 47 days to go until the election. They know time is running out.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Especially with the WSJ/NBC poll out in a few hours.

Have they done this before? I don't remember damage control on polls coming from the McCain camp like this.
Click to expand...

Yea, they did this a couple of times at the start of the campaign, especially after the "Unity" bump.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Bush to address the nation tonight on the bail out plan.

/eyeroll
 
C

CharlieDigital

Banned
Door2Dawn said:
Word on the street is that McCsin is going to support the bail out.
Click to expand...

It's looking more and more like it's going to be a disaster as more information comes out about the state of the economy and the people who are trying to shape the bailout.

I read in a local paper this morning:

Bob Herbert said:
The sky was falling, he seemed to be saying, and if taxpayers didn't pony up $700 billion in the next few days, all would be lost. No time to look at the fine print. Hurry, hurry, said the treasury secretary.

With all due respect to Paulson, who is widely regarded as a smart and fine man, we need to slow this process down. We got into this mess by handing out mortgages like lollipops to people who paid too little attention to the fine print, who in many cases, didn't understand it or didn't care about it.

Lobbyists, bankers and Wall Street types are already hopping up and down like overexcited children, ready to burst into the government's $700 billion pinata. This widespread eagerness is itself an indication that there is something too sweet about the Paulson plan.

This is not supposed to be a good deal for business. "The idea is that you're coming here because you would be going bankrupt otherwise," said Baker. "You're coming here because you have no alternative. You're getting a bad deal, but it's better than going out of business. That's show it should be structured."

Paulson himself was telling us during the summer that the economy was sound, that its long-term fundamentals were "strong," that growth would rebound by the end of the year, when most of the slump in housing prices would be over.

He has been wrong every step of the way, right up until early last week, about the severity of the economic crisis.
Click to expand...

Basically, I'm starting to get the feeling that some people are a little too giddy about this bailout.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
VanMardigan said:
But who is this current bailout fair too? Consumers who aren't retardedly in debt are STILL going to be on the hook with the current proposal.
Click to expand...

True, but there's a difference in bailing out "Wall Street" and "The Economy" and bailing out the retards down the street with the five plasma TVs and no furniture.

You cannot simply "give", say, 30 thousand dollars to irresponsible middle class family A, and give zero to responsible middle class family B (who have equivalent income).
 
Xisiqomelir

Xisiqomelir

Member
gkrykewy said:
That is VERY interesting. I was wondering what the hell was going on with Intrade.



Also, lol Rouge Squadron.
Click to expand...

Intrade isn't a pollster, it's just a market. I expect the big players to manipulate any market with the volume and frequency of their trades, but I don't care because I'm in a long-term position :D

so_awes said:
how does intrade work? if i bet on Obama and he wins, i double my money?
Click to expand...

Intrade sets up a market for contracts, which trade between 0.0-100.0 points, which exactly correspond to 0-$10 (1 point = 10¢).

For an example, let's say we have $1,000 and look at a pretty heavily traded contract: AIRSTRIKE.IRAN.08. Reading the contract we see that it is fulfilled if the USA or Israel launch an overt (ie acknowledged) airstrike against Iran by 2359 hrs IRST, Dec 31 2008.
Currently, AIRSTRIKE.IRAN.08 is trading at 21 points (i.e. $2.10 per contract).

If we think this is going to happen, we should BUY. With $1,000 we can buy
(INT[1000/2.10]=)
476 contracts. If we are correct and the airstrike goes through by the deadline, the contract will close at 100 points and we'll make
$10-$2.1=
$7.90 profit per contract and
7.90*476=
$3,760.4 profit total. If we are wrong, the contract will close at 0 and we'll be out $1000.

If we think this is not going to happen, we should SELL. With $1,000 we can sell
(INT[1000/(10-2.1)])=
126 contracts. We sell at $10-PRICE instead of selling at straight $PRICE because we have to cover our losses if we're wrong. If we're right, the contract closes at 0 and we make $2.10 profit per contract and
126*2.10=
$264.60 total. If we're wrong, the contract closes at 100 and we lose $1000.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
mckmas8808 said:
But it's not really just one poll. It's been like 15 polls. Obama leading in VA, tied in NC, Basically tied in FL, down by just 3 points in Indiana, and up by 4-9 points nationally.

And all of this with 47 days to go until the election. They know time is running out.
Click to expand...
41 days :p
 
C

Cheebs

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Yeah. I'm like, wait he's still around? Who knew?
Click to expand...
Well, not for long. Assuming congress goes into recess after next week then next week more or less is the last week of the Bush administration.
 
B

Barrett2

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Yeah. I'm like, wait he's still around? Who knew?
Click to expand...

Remember, Bush is like Truman. We won't know how awesome he really is for several decades, when the long-term genius of his Presidency comes to fruition.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I think people won't give much of a fuck about the bullshit foreign policy debate anyway, people are focused on the economy.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
lawblob said:
Remember, Bush is like Truman. We won't know how awesome he really is for several decades, when the long-term genius of his Presidency comes to fruition.
Click to expand...
I love how they use that argument. Truman started to be redeemed as early as the mid 50's just couple years after leaving office. By the 1960 election (8 years after he left office) he was a hero who was someone Kennedy often used for campaigning/photo-ops.

The Bushies definition of being redeemed like Truman is laughable to compare to. President's don't magically become beloved decades after they leave office if they leave office unpolular. Just ask Nixon, Hoover, Harding...etc
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
gkrykewy said:
True, but there's a difference in bailing out "Wall Street" and "The Economy" and bailing out the retards down the street with the five plasma TVs and no furniture.

You cannot simply "give", say, 30 thousand dollars to irresponsible middle class family A, and give zero to responsible middle class family B (who have equivalent income).
Click to expand...

Well, again my point is EITHER WAY responsible middle class family B isn't getting squat. They're actually on the hook for actions of family A and Wall Street. So, at least paying the banks on behalf of family A benefits family A AND Wall Street, whereas the current bailout only helps Wall Street.

And although there are sure to be the irresponsible families with 5 plasma tvs getting helped, there will also be countless honest families who will be helped.
 
B

bob_arctor

Tough_Smooth
Ether_Snake said:
I think people won't give much of a fuck about the bullshit foreign policy debate anyway, people are focused on the economy.
Click to expand...

Absolutely true. And with McCain given to sounding just like Bush on FP, perhaps even more rabidly antagonistic, Obama will be a picture of clear and different thinking.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
VanMardigan said:
Well, again my point is EITHER WAY responsible middle class family B isn't getting squat. They're actually on the hook for actions of family A and Wall Street. So, at least paying the banks on behalf of family A benefits family A AND Wall Street, whereas the current bailout only helps Wall Street.

And although there are sure to be the irresponsible families with 5 plasma tvs getting helped, there will also be countless honest families who will be helped.
Click to expand...

And if you help family A not go into foreclosure, then family B's house will not go down in value.

That helps family B, being that they are responsible. The least amount of people going into foreclosure the better.
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
bob_arctor said:
Absolutely true. And with McCain given to sounding just like Bush on FP, perhaps even more rabidly antagonistic, Obama will be a picture of clear and different thinking.
Click to expand...

I know that is how most of us will perceive it, but I worry that most of America is just looking for someone who talks tough and doesn't "blink in the face of terror."
 
RubxQub

RubxQub

φίλω ἐξεχέγλουτον καί ψευδολόγον οὖκ εἰπόν
I imagine the words "Ladies and Gentleman" as well as "My Friends", are both phrases used to stall the next sentence and give them a little time to think.

Funny how noticeably often it happens, though.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
RubxQub said:
I imagine the words "Ladies and Gentleman" as well as "My Friends", are both phrases used to stall the next sentence and give them a little time to think.

Funny how noticeably often it happens, though.
Click to expand...
To be fair they are better "time to think" words than Obama's "uh uh uh uh uh" he always does when he is thinking. It's a bad habit of Obama's.
 
Xisiqomelir

Xisiqomelir

Member
The Lamonster said:
Ralph Nader is a joke. I wish he would have sat this one out.


Way to attempt to totally fuck our country up the ass (AGAIN), Nader!
Click to expand...

Nader is completely entitled to run. I think his platform is asstastic and that he probably has no kind of Washington clout to get things done even if he did amazingly win, but he can go for it if he wants.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Xisiqomelir said:
Nader is completely entitled to run. I think his platform is asstastic and that he probably has no kind of Washington clout to get things done even if he did amazingly win, but he can go for it if he wants.
Click to expand...
This is true and the PC thing to say, but we all know he's simply stealing votes from the good guy ;)

He knows he's not going to win. He knows he's just going to steal votes. He knows he basically cost Gore the election. He's selfish as fuck if you ask me.
 
Xisiqomelir

Xisiqomelir

Member
The Lamonster said:
This is true and the PC thing to say, but we all know he's simply stealing votes from the good guy ;)

He knows he's not going to win. He knows he's just going to steal votes. He knows he basically cost Gore the election. He's selfish as fuck if you ask me.
Click to expand...

This is where I wish Triumph were unbanned so he could start yelling at us. Free Triumph :(
 
RubxQub

RubxQub

φίλω ἐξεχέγλουτον καί ψευδολόγον οὖκ εἰπόν
Oh shit, Biden :lol

"We know where Osama bin Laden is, we should be focused...on...killing him"
 
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