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PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts

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G

GhaleonEB

Member
Hitokage said:
So far it seems like Kerry plus Iowa and New Mexico are a lock. Beyond that Obama needs only 6 more electoral votes, and he has a realistic chance of winning Nevada(5), Colorado(9), Ohio(20), and Virginia(13). Other states can also be considered to be in-play, but will require improvement over the next two months.
Click to expand...
I think Nevada is pretty close to a lock as well. Which gets him to 269 - tied.

Voter registration:

Nevada2.jpg


Very similar to what's happened in Iowa, there are now ~60k more registered Democrats than Republicans. Enough to overcome Bush's '04 margin three times over.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Oh, here's an interesting scenario I just noticed...

What is the chance of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District(Omaha and suburbs) going blue? As Nebraska splits their electoral votes, that point plus Nevada would clinch.

Edit: Heh, not that great, it seems...
 
A

AniHawk

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I think Nevada is pretty close to a lock as well. Which gets him to 269 - tied.

Voter registration:

Nevada2.jpg


Very similar to what's happened in Iowa, there are now ~60k more registered Democrats than Republicans. Enough to overcome Bush's '04 margin three times over.
Click to expand...

Are you sure those numbers are through July? The link posted earlier is through August and has almost the same exact results.

http://edgeofthewest.wordpress.com/2008/09/05/change-in-voter-registration/
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
AniHawk said:
I'm worried that good ol' disenfranchisement will be in play to keep black people from casting their votes somehow. I put nothing past the GOP these days.
Click to expand...

Nah, the Dems will have folks on the ground making sure there's no shenanigans this year.

Also, I think the black voter turnout will be HUGE. My best friend who NEVER votes just registered yesterday. She was totally apathetic to politics until Obama :lol
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
The Abominable Snowman said:
So apparently the GOP got 38.9 million viewers while the Dems fell just short at 38.4 million viewers. Does this have any significance? Was this already discussed?
Click to expand...
Both were seen by a lot of people. That's what it means.
 
M

M3wThr33

Banned
Cloudy said:
Nah, the Dems will have folks on the ground making sure there's no shenanigans this year.

Also, I think the black voter turnout will be HUGE. My best friend who NEVER votes just registered yesterday. She was totally apathetic to politics until Obama :lol
Click to expand...

That's what I'm hoping for. Winning by getting new people interested in voting. But I have a feeling the expected turnout won't be as much as I hope.

Although, walking around in public, I've sometimes felt like if I ever get into trouble with a black guy, I could say "It's cool. I voted for Obama!" and then we go get a drink.
 
T

Tyrone Slothrop

Banned
The Abominable Snowman said:
So apparently the GOP got 38.9 million viewers while the Dems fell just short at 38.4 million viewers. Does this have any significance? Was this already discussed?
Click to expand...

i think it was because the speech was after the football game. and the palin bruhaha that's been ubiquitous.

though i dunno. i think it's really odd myself. maybe i'm just underestimating the, uh, greatness of mccain
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
The Abominable Snowman said:
So apparently the GOP got 38.9 million viewers while the Dems fell just short at 38.4 million viewers. Does this have any significance? Was this already discussed?
Click to expand...

Good. Anyone who saw both conventions and doesn't vote Republican by default will be turned off by the hate-fest that was most of the GOP speeches
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Cloudy said:
Good. Anyone who saw both conventions and doesn't vote Republican by default will be turned off by the hate-fest that was most of the GOP speeches
Click to expand...
Eh, I wouldn't assume that, but many were.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Although, walking around in public, I've sometimes felt like if I ever get into trouble with a black guy, I could say "It's cool. I voted for Obama!" and then we go get a drink.
Click to expand...

Can someone give him that tag :lol
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Hitokage said:
Oh, here's an interesting scenario I just noticed...

What is the chance of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District(Omaha and suburbs) going blue? As Nebraska splits their electoral votes, that point plus Nevada would clinch.
Click to expand...

Bush got 120,813 votes there and Kerry got 83,330 votes.

The state went for Obama in the primaries, but it was a caucus. The 2nd Congressional District landed 12,252 votes for Obama and 3,709 votes for Clinton. No Republican results. So of the Democrats, there are more Obama fans, and that's a good thing. Just a question of how many are there and whether or not they'll vote Democrat in the general.

Despite the shitstorm that would ensue, I'd be fine with Kerry + IA + NM and NV. Obama would still get the presidency.
 
R

RurouniZel

Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
... all of this is making it hard for me to sleep right now. I don't know what I or my family will do if the Republicans get another 4 years... we're having a rough time of it as is.
 
R

RurouniZel

Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
AniHawk said:
Wow. 1,000 posts a day for this thread. We're all pretty nervous.

Of course, that's probably just me.
Click to expand...

See what I wrote above. It's nearly 4 here in CT and I can hardly sleep over this.
 
F

Fatalah

Member
RurouniZel said:
... all of this is making it hard for me to sleep right now. I don't know what I or my family will do if the Republicans get another 4 years... we're having a rough time of it as is.
Click to expand...

I know what you mean. I was just sleeping watching TV, but then I came online and it keeps me worried. And then I think about donating another 10 to Obama.
 
A

Arde5643

Member
Found this good writeup and analysis of Palin's role in the campaign:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/sarah-palin-is-not-hockey-mom.html

538 on Palin said:
She's a hockey player. She’s a fourth-line hockey agitator, beloved by the home crowd, loathed by the opponents, injecting passion into both fan bases, the kind of home-team hero that no Stanley Cup winner goes without.

Once upon a time, I applied an NFL-replay mentality to hockey playoffs, holding on to outrages over missed calls, blatantly unfair officiating, double standards, and outright getting-away-with-stuff (which always led to an early spring exit for my beloved Blues). I wanted – and unreasonably expected – bad behavior to be proportionally punished.

And then several years ago I had an epiphany about the hockey playoffs – nobody is coming to save you. Initiators win, reactors lose. Expect adversity, because it's built in. The fourth-line, no-scoring-talent, pest agitators (or as we now call them, “energy guys”) have a specific job. Skate in, take a cheap shot, make it after the whistle. Make it against the rules. Stir something up. Put a wet glove in the other guy's face and rub it. Get the outrage flowing. Get the opponent not thinking about the game, get them thinking about your shenanigans. And what happens? The “victimized” team loses its composure, hitting back. The guy who hits second is always the guy who goes to the penalty box.

Watching Sarah Palin this week, and the reaction to her by both sides, and all the talk of hockey mommery, I realized that this is who she is. She skates into the corner, throws up an elbow, and the Democrats cry: “Foul!” Hey! She said Obama has never passed a major bill – this is an objective lie! Hey! She ridiculed community organizing the day after Service was the theme! Technically people should punish her by not voting for her over this infraction!

It’s whining, and whiners hit back second and go to the penalty box on top of it.

Sarah Palin is a person who by her own admission found out about the Iraq surge – the centerpiece of the McCain judgment argument – from television. Apologies to conservatives, but technically, objectively, inarguably, this alone makes her unqualified to be President. But we don’t live in that technical or objective world. Political campaigns – as distinct from policy and governance – are the NHL playoffs. It’s only about who survives the war of attrition to the finish line first. Is Brett Hull’s skate still in Dominik Hasek’s crease and was that same situation disallowed in every previous instance throughout that season? Yes, but so what? Dallas had a parade.

In the hockey analogy, Palin wouldn’t get within a thousand miles of an NHL All-Star Game because she’s not a scoring talent. She’s a role player, an emotion-rouser. Emotion messes with the chalkboard-drawn game plan and thus achieves a specific strategic objective. She can make game-changing agitation plays that rouse her home team and provoke the other side into counterattacks that – 100% of the time – end up punishing the team who hits back. Democrats would be smart to understand her as such, and I see a lot of reaction that doesn't seem to grasp what Palin is doing and the value she's providing. I see a lot of Democrats taking a lot of bait.

This applies more to Democratic surrogates than it does to the top-ticket duo. Joe Biden had the smart response yesterday – naming the behavior – expecting it, and then riding through without taking the bait:

“It was about how well placed -- and boy she is good -- how a left jab can be stuck pretty nice. It’s about how Barack Obama is such a bad guy.”
And that’s all he says of Palin’s antics. Name the behavior, even praising the skill with which the agitation was attempted, and then back to focus. It's "the economy, stupid."

Finally – is the analogy complete? In the end a great hockey agitator who rouses both sides emotionally (and successfully gets the other team to lose focus) still needs the home team scoring talent to come through. Successful agitator Kris Draper of the Detroit Red Wings had the clutch Steve Yzerman for a lot of years. That worked. Detroit won Cups. They had parades.

Successful agitator Tyson Nash, when he was on my Blues, was stuck with the antithesis of playoff clutch, the easily thrown-off-his-game Keith Tkachuk. That didn’t work. No Cup. Even if Palin is successful in her task of agitation and distraction, which one is John McCain?
Click to expand...

tldr; Palin is an agitator in hockey, loved by the home crowd, loathed by the opponents - totally useless in skill, but useful in agitating the opponent to commit fouls which will get them in trouble.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
AniHawk said:
Wow. 1,000 posts a day for this thread. We're all pretty nervous.

Of course, that's probably just me.
Click to expand...

It's the best show on TV and everyone is watching, waiting eagerly to see the jaw dropping season finale.
 
N

numble

Member
AniHawk said:
Despite the shitstorm that would ensue, I'd be fine with Kerry + IA + NM and NV. Obama would still get the presidency.
Click to expand...
You mean that + 1 electoral vote from Nebraska right?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
RurouniZel said:
... all of this is making it hard for me to sleep right now. I don't know what I or my family will do if the Republicans get another 4 years... we're having a rough time of it as is.
Click to expand...
I don't want to admit it, but I'm nervous as well. Like, literally nervous when I think about it, and what another four years would mean. I woke up the last two days early, got thinking about the election, and couldn't get back to sleep. :\
 
A

AniHawk

Member
numble said:
You mean that + 1 electoral vote from Nebraska right?
Click to expand...

The combo I had would mean a tie, meaning it goes to the House where they vote for the winner and the majority is Democrat.

The combo I had + the 1 EC vote would be just as crazy though.
 
F

Fatalah

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I think Nevada is pretty close to a lock as well. Which gets him to 269 - tied.

Voter registration:

Nevada2.jpg


Very similar to what's happened in Iowa, there are now ~60k more registered Democrats than Republicans. Enough to overcome Bush's '04 margin three times over.
Click to expand...


Can you find me a chart like this for PA? I want to see PA's '04 numbers...
 
R

RurouniZel

Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
GhaleonEB said:
I don't want to admit it, but I'm nervous as well. Like, literally nervous when I think about it, and what another four years would mean. I woke up the last two days early, got thinking about the election, and couldn't get back to sleep. :\
Click to expand...

Heh, I'm thinking of just saying "Screw it, I'm never getting back to sleep so I should just play some Disgaea 3"
 
N

numble

Member
AniHawk said:
The combo I had would mean a tie, meaning it goes to the House where they vote for the winner and the majority is Democrat.

The combo I had + the 1 EC vote would be just as crazy though.
Click to expand...
Kerry had 251 votes. So plus Iowa (7) and Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5), just gets you to 268. 269 is the tie.
 
T

Tyrone Slothrop

Banned
it's good to be cautionary, and never consider the election in the bag. but at the end of the day, it's the dems election. the other side has a fighting chance, but that's all it is.

Arde5643 said:
Found this good writeup and analysis of Palin's role in the campaign:

<snip>
Click to expand...

yeah he illustrated what's been on my mind lately, and i'm glad the obama campaign seems to acknowledge what palin is - a distraction - and dealing with her properly.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Fatalah said:
Can you find me a chart like this for PA? I want to see PA's '04 numbers...
Click to expand...
I look it up now, but this is from an AP article from today:

In Pennsylvania, the Democrats have added 375,000 voters since 2006 while the Republicans have lost 117,000.
Click to expand...
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/09/democrats_post_big_gains_in_vo_1.php
numble said:
Kerry had 251 votes. So plus Iowa (7) and Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5), just gets you to 268. 269 is the tie.
Click to expand...
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/

Kerry had 252.
 
J

Jak140

Member
Yeah, honestly, this whole thing has got me staying up up to 4 on some work nights. The thought of McCain & Palin running this country should keep any moderately informed person up at night.
 
Z

Zeliard

Member
Jak140 said:
Yeah, honestly, this whole thing has got me staying up up to 4 on some work nights. The thought of McCain & Palin running this country should keep any moderately intelligent person up at night.
Click to expand...

I'm afflicted with that exact problem as well. I'm hoping it was just because of the conventions, though. We'll see next week.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
numble said:
Kerry had 251 votes. So plus Iowa (7) and Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5), just gets you to 268. 269 is the tie.
Click to expand...
Ok, I spent a few minutes looking over electoral maps wondering why the hell Kerry got 251 when the states he won gave him 252, and found out that some asshat elector from Minnesota cast a presidential ballot for "John Ewards".

Edit: Hah, beaten.
 
A

Azure Dream

Member
Hitokage said:
Beyond that Obama needs only 6 more electoral votes, and he has a realistic chance of winning [...] Ohio(20),
Click to expand...

No. Maybe he'll do alright in the really heavy population centers, but the other counties will probably more than counter that.

I hear the six month old bullshit still floating around. People are still convinced that somehow he's both a secret Muslim and his spiritual guidance is from a crazy Christian pastor. Right about then you know he's fucked in rural America.

Also, seeing the unsure Republicans walk around with a gleam in their eyes when Sarah Palin was announced, because "it was a really smart choice." Why? She's going to capture all those upset Clinton voters, don't you know. Never mind the fact that they couldn't be more divergent on nearly all of the issues, she'll get them all. And the feeling I got wasn't that she was seen as a qualified backup as President of the United States, more that she was an intelligently-played chess piece by the McCain campaign. I don't wish ill of John McCain, but I'm not sure the potential reality of "President Palin" is striking people as clearly as it should.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Kulock said:
No. Maybe he'll do alright in the really heavy population centers, but the other counties will probably more than counter that.
Click to expand...
I'm not expecting Ohio to be anything less of a clusterfuck, much like how I've written off Florida despite close polling, but the voting situation in Ohio has changed and all we really need out of them is 50%+1. It can happen.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I think Nevada is pretty close to a lock as well. Which gets him to 269 - tied.

Voter registration:

Nevada2.jpg


Very similar to what's happened in Iowa, there are now ~60k more registered Democrats than Republicans. Enough to overcome Bush's '04 margin three times over.
Click to expand...

Um, according to this:

http://sos.state.nv.us/elections/voter-reg/2004/1004main.asp

There were 429,808 Democrats in the 2004 General Election and 434,239 Republicans.

The other stuff from August is correct though.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
This is a bit OT but does anyone else find Kathleen Sebelius kind of hawt for an old chick? :lol

Was reading Huffington Post and saw her pic in an article

s-SEBELIUS-large.jpg


Total GILF :D *runs*
 
Z

Zeliard

Member
Cloudy said:
This is a bit OT but does anyone else find Kathleen Sebelius kind of hawt for an old chick? :lol

Was reading Huffington Post and saw her pic in an article

s-SEBELIUS-large.jpg


Total GILF :D *runs*
Click to expand...

She's got nothing on Helen Mirren.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Cloudy said:
This is a bit OT but does anyone else find Kathleen Sebelius kind of hawt for an old chick? :lol

Was reading Huffington Post and saw her pic in an article

s-SEBELIUS-large.jpg


Total GILF :D *runs*
Click to expand...
Little late to the party, but I'm sure Deus Ex Machina appreciates the company.
 
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