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[StoOgE]

Obama needs two of VA, PA, and OH to win. I'm assuming Michigan goes blue and Florida goes red. It's looking pretty good to me.

There are other swing states out ther, he does not necessarily need VA to win the whole thing, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico would be huge too, and my gut tells me two of those (Colorado and New Mexico) are a lock. I'm very confident about Michigan and PA coming around, and hopefull about Virginia (less so about NC). I also think he takes Ohio and Missouri.

I think Dems need to get used to the fact that Florida is a Red State at this point.. its close enough to try and win, but I just dont see it going Blue this cycle.

Ohio worries me, but I dont think we need it.. but *if* we take Ohio, thats it for McCain. I dont see a way he wins without picking up PA or OH.

My basic opinion right now is this: Once the dems get behind Obama in a real way (which could take a few months) The states that are leaning Obama now are going to become stronger Obama and the states that are a toss up will begin to lean Obama.. the states that lean McCain will move to 'tossup'.

I'm the biggest pessemist in the world when it comes to this stuff (that happens being a Dem living in Texas the last 10 years). but I really really dont think this is going to be that close election night. The republicans are in a world of trouble, and the fact that McSame couldnt get a 10 point lead (or any lead) over Obama or Hillary during the protracted infighting says a ton.

 

[Clipjoint]

Florida can be a blue state if the candidate is popular among the Jewish population. Obama isn't polling as well as previous candidates among them, so he has no shot.

 

[StoOgE]

Florida can be a blue state if the candidate is popular among the Jewish population. Obama isn't polling as well as previous candidates among them, so he has no shot.

Yeah but think about it: Florida was close in 2000.. but the Dems had a Jewish person on the ticket. I just think it's a state that is shifting Republican. I would love for that not to be the case, but all signs point to it.

 

[Cheebs]

Florida is a red state now I think.

Here are the possible combination's for Obama to hit 270, bare minimum. (obviously he could win every state used in the scenarios but I am going for 270 and stopping to keep it safe). I assume he keeps all the kerry states other than NH (McCain is oddly beloved there, its the only kerry state I can see switching, I am assuming it does to keep my estimates conservative as possible)

Since Iowa is a 100% lock I always start with that one:

Iowa + Ohio

Iowa + Missouri + Colorado

Iowa + Missouri + New Mexico

Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado + Nevada

Iowa + Virgina + Colorado

Iowa + Virgina + New Mexico

 

[Clipjoint]

Yeah but think about it: Florida was close in 2000.. but the Dems had a Jewish person on the ticket. I just think it's a state that is shifting Republican. I would love for that not to be the case, but all signs point to it.

The 2000 election was a bit of an anomoly. Jewish VP candidate on the left, brother of the governor on the right, confusing ballots, recounts, Katherine Harris, anti-Clinton backlash, hanging chads...that whole election was a mess.

 

[Cheebs]

The 2000 election was a bit of an anomoly. Jewish VP candidate on the left, brother of the governor on the right, confusing ballots, recounts, Katherine Harris, anti-Clinton backlash, hanging chads...that whole election was a mess.

Florida is far more republican today than it was in 2000 though.

 

[StoOgE]

Florida is a red state now I think.

Here are the possible combination's for Obama to hit 270, bare minimum. (obviously he could win every state used in the scenarios but I am going for 270 and stopping to keep it safe). I assume he keeps all the kerry states other than NH (McCain is oddly beloved there, its the only kerry state I can see switching, I am assuming it does to keep my estimates conservative as possible)

Since Iowa is a 100% lock I always start with that one:

Iowa + Ohio

Iowa + Missouri + Colorado

Iowa + Missouri + New Mexico

Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado + Nevada

Iowa + Virgina + Colorado

Iowa + Virgina + New Mexico

Just bolded the ones that I truly believe are "locks" come November. I think Nevada goes to, and I have hope that Virginia does as well. Ohio is more of a tossup, but I think the right VP and Hillary's help could put Obama over the top.

Florida is far more republican today than it was in 2000 though.

That was my point, the state is more republican now, but even back then a Jewish running mate and it still was a tossup (I wont get in to all that, but call the thing a push). It was the perfect ticket for the Dems to pick up Florida right on the heals of a very popualar Dem president, and at best they barely got it. Its gotten worse for the dems there since then.

 

[Clipjoint]

Florida is a red state now I think.

Here are the possible combination's for Obama to hit 270, bare minimum. (obviously he could win every state used in the scenarios but I am going for 270 and stopping to keep it safe). I assume he keeps all the kerry states other than NH (McCain is oddly beloved there, its the only kerry state I can see switching, I am assuming it does to keep my estimates conservative as possible)

Since Iowa is a 100% lock I always start with that one:

Iowa + Ohio

Iowa + Missouri + Colorado

Iowa + Missouri + New Mexico

Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado + Nevada

Iowa + Virgina + Colorado

Iowa + Virgina + New Mexico

I think Colorado is almost a lock. McCain couldn't beat Romney there, and Obama beat Hillary. Very similar to Minnesota, where McCain also couldn't beat Romney.

 

[StoOgE]

I think Colorado is almost a lock. McCain couldn't beat Romney there, and Obama beat Hillary. Very similar to Minnesota, where McCain also couldn't beat Romney.

Colorado and New Mexico in my eyes are both solidly going Dem in November. Missouri is more of a "tossup", but I'm pretty sure about that one too. Hell, I'm pretty sure Nevada is going blue also.

I might be overly optimistic right now, but I feel really really good about November. Hell, I think Texas dems might take back the state legislature and send a Dem to the Senate. I think the fundamentals for republicans are terrible, and I think the backlash will be really severe in Texas since our states name has been tarnished by their shenanigans.

We managed to turn Dallas county blue in 2006. El Paso, San Antonio are more blue than they were. Travis (Austin) is one of the bluest counties in the country (never ever change)... if we can turn Tarrant (H-town) Texas could be blue once again. It was when I was a kid, but *if* the dems can take Texas back that would be the swiftest kick to the balls imaginable for the Republicans.

 

[Clipjoint]

Colorado and New Mexico in my eyes are both solidly going Dem in November. Missouri is more of a "tossup", but I'm pretty sure about that one too.

New Mexico could still go either way, I think. Richardson is pretty popular there, so an aggressive campaign for Obama on his part with lots of public appearances (especially with the beard) could make it a lock.

 

[avaya]

Hillary better smack it out of the park today and get fully onboard the Obama bandwagon.

Energise the base.

There should be more Democrats out there than Republicans. There always tends to be more liberal/moderate left leaning voters than right but they are less interested in politics. Barack alone should be enough to get them to the polls but every little helps.

 

[worldrunover]

Hillary better smack it out of the park today and get fully onboard the Obama bandwagon.

Energise the base.

There should be more Democrats out there than Republicans. There always tends to be more liberal/moderate left leaning voters than right but they are less interested in politics. Barack alone should be enough to get them to the polls but every little helps.

Yeah if she mentions "pop. vote" "swing states" or "hillaryclinton.com" I'll be pissed.

 

[StoOgE]

Yeah if she mentions "pop. vote" "swing states" or "hillaryclinton.com" I'll be pissed.

I dont expect any of that, I expect her to mention "historic campaign" "two great candidates" "very close race shows how strong the party is and energized Dems are". She is going to talk up her campaign and her supporters, but I dont think she will do it to the detriment of Obama. I wonder if Obama will be there.. they really need to do some joint speaches in the next few weeks.

 

[Clipjoint]

She might mention hillaryclinton.com to get some help paying off all that debt. At the very least, she'll have it somewhere visible on a sign.

 

[StoOgE]

She might mention hillaryclinton.com to get some help paying off all that debt. At the very least, she'll have it somewhere visible on a sign.

Thats possible. She might also want to continue with the "send me a message of support" thing. I really think that kind of positivism and recognizing how much her campaign accomplished is a great healing device. If done right, her supporters still feel like they sent a historic message (which they did) but dont feel cheated (this is crucial). Hillary needs to make them feel like they accomplished something *and* make them feel good about that, then turn towards vitrolic hate of McCain and gushing love for Obama, shit about how they went on a historic journey together, great friends, etc.

 

[Amir0x]

MSNBC coverage of the concession, should be very curious.

 

[syllogism]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Hillary Clinton will endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president Saturday, and use her final campaign speech to urge supporters to back him in November, a source close to Clinton and familiar with her prepared remarks tells CNN.

Sen. Hillary Clinton's concession speech Saturday may help unite the Democratic Party.

"She'll say the stakes are high in this election and it's imperative that the party come together behind Obama and to put a Democrat in the White House," said the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to candidly discuss the speech.

Clinton will throw her support behind the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee during an event at noon ET Saturday at the National Building Museum in Washington.

Obama will not attend the event. He will spend Saturday in Chicago, Illinois.
.
.
.
The source familiar with the prepared text of Clinton's speech says she will reach out to women who backed her, many who were excited about the possibility of her becoming the first female president.

"She'll also talk a bit about the historic nature of her campaign and the progress made on behalf of women," the source said.

.

 

[Zeed]

Thats possible. She might also want to continue with the "send me a message of support" thing. I really think that kind of positivism and recognizing how much her campaign accomplished is a great healing device. If done right, her supporters still feel like they sent a historic message (which they did) but dont feel cheated (this is crucial). Hillary needs to make them feel like they accomplished something *and* make them feel good about that, then turn towards vitrolic hate of McCain and gushing love for Obama, shit about how they went on a historic journey together, great friends, etc.

She might also point out that after having to fend off all her bullshit, Obama has become a stronger candidate.

 

[Amir0x]

.

I think it's a bit of a mistake for Obama NOT to be there, as I believe that'd be the final ultimate unifying gesture.

 

[Gaborn]

She might also point out that after having to fend off all her bullshit, Obama has become a stronger candidate.

If she uses that exact wording I myself will write her in in november.

 

[syllogism]

I think it's a bit of a mistake for Obama NOT to be there, as I believe that'd be the final ultimate unifying gesture.

I think it might be awkward for him to be there, they'll have plenty of time to appear together

 

[worldrunover]

I think it's a bit of a mistake for Obama NOT to be there, as I believe that'd be the final ultimate unifying gesture.

The man's only human! Give him a break once in a while.

 

[Zeed]

I think it's a bit of a mistake for Obama NOT to be there, as I believe that'd be the final ultimate unifying gesture.

Eh this is her moment to stand down and try to undo some of the damage she's done. If Obama were there he'd steal the spotlight.

She can start making reparations by telling us to visit BarackObama.com

 

[Amir0x]

Eh this is her moment to stand down and try to undo some of the damage she's done.

which would be undone much faster if they stood together, as it'd make the gesture seem more genuine

that's my feeling on this

 

[StoOgE]

I think it's a bit of a mistake for Obama NOT to be there, as I believe that'd be the final ultimate unifying gesture.

I disagree. I think this is her moment to shine and bow out, her supporters need a celebratory moment. They need to get together in the next few weeks, but not today.

 

[Gaborn]

I think it's a bit of a mistake for Obama NOT to be there, as I believe that'd be the final ultimate unifying gesture.

No, I think it's ultimately smart. It distances him from her and I think is a signal that he's not as interested in her being his VP. If he was there with her this late in the game I'd almost think it was more of an acknowledgment he was considering her for VP.

 

[Amir0x]

No, I think it's ultimately smart. It distances him from her and I think is a signal that he's not as interested in her being his VP. If he was there with her this late in the game I'd almost think it was more of an acknowledgment he was considering her for VP.

It's an interesting point. But, if he distances himself from HER does he distance himself from HER SUPPORTERS?

 

[Zeed]

It's an interesting point. But, if he distances himself from HER does he distance himself from HER SUPPORTERS?

That's her problem right now.

It'll become his if she fucks this up.

 

[DEO3]

Florida can be a blue state if the candidate is popular among the Jewish population. Obama isn't polling as well as previous candidates among them, so he has no shot.

It has more to do with age than religion IMO. I agree that we're still a swing state, we're just not in play this year because of how weak Obama is with older voters. But you know what? Fuck 'em. It's our generation's turn. This is our moment. This is our time.

 

[Gaborn]

It's an interesting point. But, if he distances himself from HER does he distance himself from HER SUPPORTERS?

No because in the future he's going to be with her a lot campaigning. TODAY needed to be about clinton supporting Obama, in the future it'll be about Obama's campaign. They're related, but they don't need the image of Obama with Clinton today, they need her words of support.

 

[KilledByBill]

which would be undone much faster if they stood together, as it'd make the gesture seem more genuine

that's my feeling on this

They're going to have a moment together just not now. Obama's taking a break this weekend and letting Hillary have the spotlight one last time. That's a strategy to bring her supporters back into the fold, since so many of them claim/feel that he's disrespected her.

I'm sure they'll hold a formal rally together in a key swing state, perhaps Ohio.


Also Ive got to give props to one of the best political cartoons of the season now that Clinton is finally wrapping things up:

 

[avaya]

I disagree. I think this is her moment to shine and bow out, her supporters need a celebratory moment. They need to get together in the next few weeks, but not today.

I agree but I would not say next few weeks but next week! Keep making the news cycle, don't let the media even ferment the disunity meme.

 

[TheKingsCrown]

When is her speech again?

 

[Gaborn]

When is her speech again?

Scheduled for noon, 35 minutes from now.

 

[StoOgE]

I agree but I would not say next few weeks but next week! Keep making the news cycle, don't let the media even ferment the disunity meme.

Yes, the sooner the better, next week the two of then in PA, Ohio, WV, Kentucky, Indiana. Hit the rust belt together.

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

Obama edict requires DNC to return $100,000

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/07/obama-edict-requires-dnc-to-return-100000/

WASHINGTON (AP) – The Democratic National Committee is now operating under Barack Obama's fundraising rules.

The DNC today returned about $100,000 in money from lobbyists and political action committees.

A party official says the donations were already "in the pipeline" when Obama, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, instituted the standards for the committee.

Obama imposed the rules to avoid a conflict with his own ban on money from federal lobbyists and PACs.

Republican John McCain does accept money from lobbyists and PACs as does the Republican National Committee and other party committees.

Obama's ban does not apply to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee nor to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

It is disturbing that McCain still accepts that money.

 

[ZeroTolerance]

MSNBC panel is so full of win. It would be even better without Pat but I will take whatever I can get.

 

[syllogism]

Not really, the whole lobbyist issue is pretty overblown but I'm glad democrats are using it to their advantage

 

[Frank the Great]

Florida is a red state now I think.

Here are the possible combination's for Obama to hit 270, bare minimum. (obviously he could win every state used in the scenarios but I am going for 270 and stopping to keep it safe). I assume he keeps all the kerry states other than NH (McCain is oddly beloved there, its the only kerry state I can see switching, I am assuming it does to keep my estimates conservative as possible)

Since Iowa is a 100% lock I always start with that one:

Iowa + Ohio

Iowa + Missouri + Colorado

Iowa + Missouri + New Mexico

Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado + Nevada

Iowa + Virgina + Colorado

Iowa + Virgina + New Mexico

actually, he only needs this, even without NH:

Iowa+Colorado+New Mexico

would result in a tie, which is an obama win. iowa and colorado are locks. his chances look good.

 

[fortified_concept]

They're going to have a moment together just not now. Obama's taking a break this weekend and letting Hillary have the spotlight one last time. That's a strategy to bring her supporters back into the fold, since so many of them claim/feel that he's disrespected her.

I'm sure they'll hold a formal rally together in a key swing state, perhaps Ohio.


Also Ive got to give props to one of the best political cartoons of the season now that Clinton is finally wrapping things up:

http://i27.tinypic.com/312isn9.jpg[IMG][/QUOTE]

Wow that pic just made me realize something. Hillary is like the annoying friend who after you've beat his ass a dozen times in Pro Evolution he keeps "explaining" to you why the score is unfair and how if the game hadn't cheated him he's be winning now or how he had the victory in his hands and you were just lucky.

 

[Gaborn]

Not really, the whole lobbyist issue is pretty overblown but I'm glad democrats are using it to their advantage

It's overblown, but Obama does have the more principled position on the issue.

 

[The Librarian]

Obama edict requires DNC to return $100,000

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/07/obama-edict-requires-dnc-to-return-100000/

It is disturbing that McCain still accepts that money.

Wow. Go Obama!

 

[kkaabboomm]

clinton speech t-minus 25 minutes. i like it.

 

[StoOgE]

Guys, I've updated the fundraising goal for NeoGafers for Obama to 3K.

Remember, it's NeoGAF's contribution to society.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/group/NeoGAFforObama

we did an awesome job bringing the senator 1337 dollars in the primary. I wanted to make the goal 9001 dollars (greater than 9000 ).. but last time I had a crazy big number as a joke, you guys hit it, I didnt want to make GAF give up all their money this time.

 

[The Librarian]

I just found out that Barack Obama announced the start of his campaign on February 10th, 2007. My birthday! It's a sign!

 

[Zeed]

I've been waiting for this speech for months. I remember a time when I expected it to come after New Hampshire. It's been too long.

Guys, I've updated the fundraising goal for NeoGafers for Obama to 3K.

Remember, it's NeoGAF's contribution to society.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/group/NeoGAFforObama

we did an awesome job bringing the senator 1337 dollars in the primary. I wanted to make the goal 9001 dollars (greater than 9000 ).. but last time I had a crazy big number as a joke, you guys hit it, I didnt want to make GAF give up all their money this time.

Make it 9001. The real battle begins now. I know GAFers have contributed the max amount in the past, 9001 is doable and I can't think of a more important cause right now.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Obama edict requires DNC to return $100,000

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/07/obama-edict-requires-dnc-to-return-100000/

It is disturbing that McCain still accepts that money.

I get such a kick out of how the RNC calls Obama a hypocrite on lobbyist money, when he's set a bar so far over their heads they can't reach it.

 

[thefro]

actually, he only needs this, even without NH:

Iowa+Colorado+New Mexico

would result in a tie, which is an obama win. iowa and colorado are locks. his chances look good.

He can actually pick off the EV in Nebraska and that would give him 270.

We should get a clear picture of what the map looks like once the Hillary voters come home. Already been a lot of movement to Obama in places like PA and MO.

 

[StoOgE]

I've been waiting for this speech for months. I remember a time when I expected it to come after New Hampshire. It's been too long.


Make it 9001. The real battle begins now. I know GAFers have contributed the max amount in the past, 9001 is doable and I can't think of a more important cause right now.

ok Zeed, it's done. Obamamania is growing to OVER 9000!

 

[StoOgE]

maybe she changed her mind?