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[PhoenixDark]

But the national numbers just show that negative, personal attacks work (not that we needed another election to prove it). The most worrying bit was from the NBC/WSJ poll that had Obama up by three points: eight in ten though McCain would have policies very similar to Bush. But nearly half support him anyways. So Obama's main message so far, that McCain = Bush appears to be sticking.

But a lot of people don't care.

That's the thing that has really caught my eye. Bush is one of the most unpopular presidents of all time, Obama has painted McCain as his heir...yet that entire line of attack isn't working at all. It's like people admit yes, McCain and Bush agree on most things...but they feel they can trust McCain due to his service. While Obama's image as a magical transcender of political boundaries died months ago McCain's utterly idiotic image as a Maverick is fucking teflon tight.

People aren't sold on Obama, they don't particularly like all/most of McCain's policies, but they know who he is and trust his judgment. I think he's going to win in a landslide unless something very dramatic happens; it's early but I really don't see VP choices, conventions, or debates changing these baffling perceptions

 

[speculawyer]

Totally. Collective enslavement and paternalism is definitely in the same league with the notion of leaving people the fuck alone and trusting them to make their own decisions.

I think you are confusing socialism with communism.

 

[Diablos]

So Obama's main message so far, that McCain = Bush appears to be sticking.

But a lot of people don't care.

I can't wrap my head around this.

It's like they know Bush sucks, and has really done nothing good at all, but they don't care. I'd like to ask these people point blank: Do you enjoy being abused?

 

[AniHawk]

I can't wrap my head around this.

It's like they know Bush sucks, and has really done nothing good at all, but they don't care. I'd like to ask these people point blank: Do you enjoy being abused?

I dunno... The TV said Obama is a celebrity and that he might not be ready to lead, so...

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

its time for a new message

senator mccain = pedophile

 

[Hitokage]

I think you are confusing socialism with communism.

Both are evil evil evil, so what's the difference?

 

[monchi-kun]

I can't wrap my head around this.

It's like they know Bush sucks, and has really done nothing good at all, but they don't care. I'd like to ask these people point blank: Do you enjoy being abused?

its not so much Bush = McCain...it's Obama is an unknown entity. Human behavior, plain and simple, makes us gravitate towards the familiar...even though it may not be the better choice because "new" comes with alot of unknowns and that scares people.

 

[Odrion]

its not so much Bush = McCain...it's Obama is an unknown entity. Human behavior, plain and simple, makes us gravitate towards the familiar...even though it may not be the better choice because "new" comes with alot of unknowns and that scares people.

Same reason why Bush defeated Kerry:

Even though Bush was a fuckwit who got us into a war and we never found WMDs, the public saw America in a time of uncertainty and the Republicans successfully made clear their "plans" to solve our problems while no one really knew what Kerry would do if elected.

Same thing now: Even though "DRILL HERE! DRILL NOW!" is bogus crap, everyone knows what McCain's energy plan is while the Republicans pushed the message that Obama doesn't have one.

 

[speculawyer]

Both are evil evil evil, so what's the difference?

We are not evil. How dare you say that!! We wear the white hats!

 

[Diablos]

No, Kerry ran an awful campaign, America was still totally split about the war and very scared about terrorism.

Up until now, Obama really hasn't been doing an awful job, but he has been pretty... laid back for the past couple months. Kerry ran a mess of a campaign since day one, really.

Obama needs to start getting pissed.

its not so much Bush = McCain...it's Obama is an unknown entity. Human behavior, plain and simple, makes us gravitate towards the familiar...even though it may not be the better choice because "new" comes with alot of unknowns and that scares people.

If they're that afraid of something that isn't the norm (and, according to 80+% of Americans, the norm is making them basically HATE THE COUNTRY RIGHT NOW) then this country's psyche is totally fucked.

If Obama loses, I will not blame him. Gore made some mistakes even though he likely won, it was so close that it was begging to be manipulated -- if he did a better job in the fall campaigning, he would've probably got enough EV's and/or popular vote to justify a Florida win to get elected. Kerry was just a terrible pick. Obama, however, is a once in a lifetime candidate (not to rip off Richardson, but he really is).

 

[monchi-kun]

calm before the Obama storm

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

kerry lost because in 2004 everybody thought you had to vote republican or else you'd be killed by al quaeda

 

[monchi-kun]

i think America has issues with tall skinny presidential candidates...Lincoln got lucky. i think things will get interesting post democratic convention. i can't imagine a well oiled campaign machine like Obama's to not have a strategy leading up to the election. They were in the middle of a bloodbath with the primaries...i think they're just "biden" their time

 

[polyh3dron]

Looks like the Ayers relationship is much, much deeper than Obama has led us to believe...WOW.

Oh noes Obama helped get $50 million donated to Chicago schools!!

BURN HIM

 

[Odrion]

kerry lost because in 2004 everybody thought you had to vote republican or else you'd be killed by al quaeda

and obama lost in 2008 because everybody thought he was a member of al quaeda

See? I can make broad generalizations too, now I never have to worry about learning anything.

 

[Diablos]

i think America has issues with tall skinny presidential candidates...Lincoln got lucky

I don't think that has anything to do with it.

 

[reilo]

Both are evil evil evil, so what's the difference?

Yeah, who the hell wants socialist countries? I don't ever remember socio-capitalistic countries ever working they were they intended to.

Well, except Germany, Canada, Britain, France, Italy, Sweden, Norway, Holland...

 

[TDG]

That's the thing that has really caught my eye. Bush is one of the most unpopular presidents of all time, Obama has painted McCain as his heir...yet that entire line of attack isn't working at all. It's like people admit yes, McCain and Bush agree on most things...but they feel they can trust McCain due to his service. While Obama's image as a magical transcender of political boundaries died months ago McCain's utterly idiotic image as a Maverick is fucking teflon tight.

People aren't sold on Obama, they don't particularly like all/most of McCain's policies, but they know who he is and trust his judgment. I think he's going to win in a landslide unless something very dramatic happens; it's early but I really don't see VP choices, conventions, or debates changing these baffling perceptions

I agree with most of your post except this. America is partisan enough that Obama could sleep-walk through the rest of the election season and it wouldn't be a blowout.

Now, I think that Obama's campaign has recently taken a step back to reaccess their strategy and prepare to really rev up the campaign. It's far from doomsday at this point, and I'm surprised that you think the situation is so drastic, considering you usually seem fairly grounded in reality.

 

[polyh3dron]

its time for a new message

senator mccain = pedophile

Really? Damn.. That's fucked up that McCain would molest kids like that. We gotta let people know about this. THIS IS HUUUUGE

 

[reilo]

Wait, another PD election prediction?

This is gonna be a cakewalk for Obama then.

 

[VALIS]

I'm not implying that Obama needs to engage in wedge politics, turn into a huge liar, cheat -- but he really does need to start punching back a bit harder.

Which is why his campaign really needs Biden and not milquetoast Bayh at this point. Someone to sling the mud while Obama tries to keep his "above the fray" image.

 

[Odrion]

THIS ISN'T 2004

although it's the same republicans attack machine and the pacifist democrats and america is still in a state of trouble and people are unsure about the future and deep down just want a candidate that can make affirmative choices and hey here's another guy who was a hero for being in a bad situation like bush and 9/11

 

[gkryhewy]

What the shit is going on with the Reuters/Zogby poll? McSame leads Obama 49-40 on the economy? The guy who said himself that he wasn't an expert?

Jesus tap dancing christ. I am losing hope in this country.

I am officially hoping for hillary as veep now.

 

[speculawyer]

Looks like the Ayers relationship is much, much deeper than Obama has led us to believe...WOW.

So here is the article you linked to:

WASHINGTON – The University of Illinois on Tuesday refused to release records relating to Barack Obama's service to a nonprofit group linked to former 1960s radical activist William Ayers.

The university's Chicago campus said the donor of the records that document the work of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge has not yet turned over ownership rights to the material.

The university is "aggressively pursuing" an agreement with the donor, and as soon as an agreement is finalized, the collection will be made accessible to the public, the university said in a one-paragraph statement.

There was no indication when an agreement will be worked out. The university did not identify the donor who it said was concerned that the release not invade personal privacy.

The Obama campaign said the senator does not have control over these records or the ability to release them, adding that it has made many documents related to Obama's life available to the public and that "we are pleased the university is pursuing an agreement that would make these records publicly available."

On Monday, the National Review magazine posted an online article saying that the institution had initially declared that the records were open to inspection, but that the university subsequently reversed its position.

So . . . how does that article support the innuendo you are alleging

Spoiler

, Mr. Hannity

?

Crazy conspiracy theory? Is that what you've been reduced to? That is sad.

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Really? Damn.. That's fucked up that McCain would molest kids like that. We gotta let people know about this. THIS IS HUUUUGE

obama may kill babies

but mccain wants to have sex with them

 

[monchi-kun]

What the shit is going on with the Reuters/Zogby poll? McSame leads Obama 49-40 on the economy? The guy who said himself that he wasn't an expert?

Jesus tap dancing christ.

...neither is the general american population. so McCain's lack of expertise on all things financial makes him relatable to the millions of people in credit card debt :lol

 

[Diablos]

I agree with most of your post except this. America is partisan enough that Obama could sleep-walk through the rest of the election season and it wouldn't be a blowout.

Now, I think that Obama's campaign has recently taken a step back to reaccess their strategy and prepare to really rev up the campaign. It's far from doomsday at this point, and I'm surprised that you think the situation is so drastic, considering you usually seem fairly grounded in reality.

Apparently you haven't seen PD's predictions over the past few years.

Nobody's saying it is doomsday. At the same time, expressing concern over a weird boost in the polls for McCain when no one typically cares is nothing to laugh at. Of course, it shouldn't mean that Obama has no time to try and bounce back. He does.

I think why people are getting so worried now opposed to being more calm during this time in previous elections is because of how bad things are. The war and economy alone, after two terms of an awful Republican President and a nominee who echoes most of his stances, you would think, would give the Dems at least an 8-10+ point lead at this point. But that isn't happening. True, it's early, and has been early, but this whole year has been really strange.

 

[polyh3dron]

obama may kill babies

but mccain wants to have sex with them

He likes to seduce them with hot bottled water...

...wait so THAT'S what he meant!!!

CHAIN EMAIL SEND

GOGOGO

 

[monchi-kun]

obama may kill babies

but mccain wants to have sex with them

...before or after they have been killed by Obama?

 

[Odrion]

What the shit is going on with the Reuters/Zogby poll? McSame leads Obama 49-40 on the economy? The guy who said himself that he wasn't an expert?

Jesus tap dancing christ. I am losing hope in this country.

I am officially hoping for hillary as veep now.

zogby is a very incorrect and stupid poll

but still even then Obama failed to use this quote to his advantage and now people think Obama is the inexperienced kid who doesn't really have a plan

 

[PhoenixDark]

I agree with most of your post except this. America is partisan enough that Obama could sleep-walk through the rest of the election season and it wouldn't be a blowout.

Now, I think that Obama's campaign has recently taken a step back to reaccess their strategy and prepare to really rev up the campaign. It's far from doomsday at this point, and I'm surprised that you think the situation is so drastic, considering you usually seem fairly grounded in reality.

I agree about the electorate being partisan but I think it could still result in a EV blowout, despite being close in terms of PV; hell, I bet Obama will win the PV no matter what. But if McCain takes Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida (I'm still not sold on Penn. staying blue) it's gonna be a short election night.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

What the shit is going on with the Reuters/Zogby poll? McSame leads Obama 49-40 on the economy? The guy who said himself that he wasn't an expert?

Jesus tap dancing christ. I am losing hope in this country.

I paid attention to the Bush-Kerry saga. Not like this, but I did. What has gone on with this campaign is some of the weirdest shit that I can possibly think of. The media protects one candidate and is responsible for some of the most irresponsible practices I've ever seen in my life. I've seen a Harvard education mocked as elitist and ineptitude lauded as cool. I've seen a campaign issue some PR saying that the presidential nominee sometimes doesn't speak for the presidential nominee's campaign. I've seen polls when said presidential nominee said that he didn't have a clue on the economy, yet lead polls that said that people thought he was better with the economy.

I don't know what the fuck else to say.

 

[TDG]

Apparently you haven't seen PD's predictions over the past few years.

I have, but recently he's seemed very down-to-earth about the election, which is why that jumped out at me.

EDIT: Okay, I see what you're saying PD.

 

[ViperVisor]

What the shit is going on with the Reuters/Zogby poll? McSame leads Obama 49-40 on the economy? The guy who said himself that he wasn't an expert?

Jesus tap dancing christ. I am losing hope in this country.

I guess those 2 extra Drill!'s from Kudlow convinced most American's.

 

[polyh3dron]

I paid attention to the Bush-Kerry saga. Not like this, but I did. What has gone on with this campaign is some of the weirdest shit that I can possibly think of. The media protects one candidate and is responsible for some of the most irresponsible practices I've ever seen in my life. I've seen a Harvard education mocked as elitist and ineptitude lauded as cool. I've seen a campaign issue some PR saying that the presidential nominee sometimes doesn't speak for the presidential nominee's campaign. I've seen polls when said presidential nominee said that he didn't have a clue on the economy, yet lead polls that said that people thought he was better with the economy.

I don't know what the fuck else to say.

 

[Odrion]

So anyways I'm stepping it up and donated $50 and now looking for a Obama group in my area (although this is Wisconsin and it's a given.)

Fight you motherfuckers, I'm going to blame all of you if America ends up eviscerating itself.

 

[kkaabboomm]

its time for a new message

senator mccain = pedophile

i mean, i heard bob saget raped and killed a girl in 1990, but it is completely unsubstantiated

 

[Diablos]

Hillary won't do a damn thing for the ticket as VP.

Really, everyone's greatly exaggerating how easily she would have been elected had she won the nomination. It's like we forgot how polarizing she is. Plenty of Democrats hate her.

 

[GhaleonEB]

What the shit is going on with the Reuters/Zogby poll? McSame leads Obama 49-40 on the economy? The guy who said himself that he wasn't an expert?

Jesus tap dancing christ. I am losing hope in this country.

I am officially hoping for hillary as veep now.

Read: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_loopy_zogby_polls.php

fivethirtyeight won't even use Zogby in their composites.

 

[soul creator]

I paid attention to the Bush-Kerry saga. Not like this, but I did. What has gone on with this campaign is some of the weirdest shit that I can possibly think of. The media protects one candidate and is responsible for some of the most irresponsible practices I've ever seen in my life. I've seen a Harvard education mocked as elitist and ineptitude lauded as cool. I've seen a campaign issue some PR saying that the presidential nominee sometimes doesn't speak for the presidential nominee's campaign. I've seen polls when said presidential nominee said that he didn't have a clue on the economy, yet lead polls that said that people thought he was better with the economy.

I don't know what the fuck else to say.

maybe I'm just a blind optimist drinking the kool-aid, but I think this election will defy a lot of "conventional wisdom", resulting in a pretty big Obama win. The cable news pundits will of course say Obama is doomed, and polls with "likely voters" will seem to give McCain a boost. Obama will not win this area of the election.

But in the background, Obama's campaign is quietly registering tons of new voters, getting multiple offices opened in every state, and actually sending out lawyers to limit election fraud, doing town halls everywhere, building up positive press in local media...so when actual election day rolls around, everyone will wonder how the hell Obama got all these votes and won.

You know, kinda like in the primaries.

 

[Diablos]

maybe I'm just a blind optimist drinking the kool-aid, but I think this election will defy a lot of "conventional wisdom", resulting in a pretty big Obama win. The cable news pundits will of course say Obama is doomed, and polls with "likely voters" will seem to give McCain a boost. Obama will not win this area of the election.

But in the background, Obama's campaign is quietly registering tons of new voters, getting multiple offices opened in every state, and actually sending out lawyers to limit election fraud, doing town halls everywhere, building up positive press in local media...so when actual election day rolls around, everyone will wonder how the hell Obama got all these votes and won.

You know, kinda like in the primaries.

Everyone underestimated Obama at the beginning, though. McCain has been paying attention to him unlike Hillary who thought she could just coast to victory.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

maybe I'm just a blind optimist drinking the kool-aid, but I think this election will defy a lot of "conventional wisdom", resulting in a pretty big Obama win. The cable news pundits will of course say Obama is doomed, and polls with "likely voters" will seem to give McCain a boost. Obama will not win this area of the election.

But in the background, Obama's campaign is quietly registering tons of new voters, getting multiple offices opened in every state, and actually sending out lawyers to limit election fraud, doing town halls everywhere, building up positive press in local media...so when actual election day rolls around, everyone will wonder how the hell Obama got all these votes and won.

You know, kinda like in the primaries.

I'm not tripping on that. I know the work that Obama is putting in. I see it here in red ass Indiana. I think that after this election, a lot of these polls are going to be shown for the bullshit that they are. Seriously, 'likely voters?' They are underestimating a lot of Obama's core supporters. I still fully expect him to be the winner November 4th. It's just disheartening to see that pundits would rather become stars and talk about bullshit all damn day instead of educating the public.

Everyone underestimated Obama at the beginning, though. McCain has been paying attention to him unlike Hillary who thought she could just coast to victory.

I think that they are underestimating him as well, just not to the degree than Clinton did.

 

[AniHawk]

But in the background, Obama's campaign is quietly registering tons of new voters, getting multiple offices opened in every state, and actually sending out lawyers to limit election fraud, doing town halls everywhere, building up positive press in local media...so when actual election day rolls around, everyone will wonder how the hell Obama got all these votes and won.

I believe this too. That's a lot of effort at the local level going on. Remember, even after Clinton went batshit insane negative, Obama still closed the gap where he was behind once he started campaigning.

 

[maximum360]

Obama may have faith in the American people (or so he says) but I don't. America, in the end will get the president it deserves. Although I believe that many people are underestimating Obama way too early, largely because of his race, it will be a tough campaign season ahead. The republican attacks have been largely mild so far but they will get vicious and I'm positive, in turn Obama will go into attack mode, his vp will also, and he'll roll out the surrogates to go after McCain.

 

[soul creator]

I'm not tripping on that. I know the work that Obama is putting in. I see it here in red ass Indiana. I think that after this election, a lot of these polls are going to be shown for the bullshit that they are. Seriously, 'likely voters?' They are underestimating a lot of Obama's core supporters. I still fully expect him to be the winner November 4th. It's just disheartening to see that pundits would rather become stars and talk about bullshit all damn day instead of educating the public.

yeah, it can be frustrating to watch the day to day "narrative", but I guess that just goes along with how broken our national political discourse has become. It's kinda the reason Obama has to kinda work his way around that roadblock.

Republicans for years have thrived off a cynical populace, and low voter turnout, so if Obama can tackle that head on, he can make big gains.

 

[Mumei]

I remember a class I took last semester, when a professor talked about how it can be somehow depressing when you realize not only how uninformed people are, but what their considerations when they vote - "He gave me a button" and "He fixed the stop sign at the end of my street," being my two favorite reasons for voting for Presidential candidates (Clinton and Reagan, specifically) - often are.

Well, I'm not in total panic mode. Obama did say he expected them to run on this, and while it seems to be working, I'll wait until post-convention to see if I should be worried.

And Obama should get to handing out more buttons, apparently.

Edit: ... and Agent Icebreezy is right about the likely voter's nonsense, I think, which rather annoys me, honestly. And I remember a 538 article about that specifically that was rather interesting.

In any case, much less worried after that.

 

[Particle Physicist]

This is quite a bounce for McCain, for being a period of time where no one is supposed to be giving a shit.

I expected things to stay the same until after the conventions. This is really weird.

im pretty damn depressed about this. im really freaking out over the prospect of a mccain presidency.

 

[The Chosen One]

Yes, it's the summer doldrums but several major things happened in the last few weeks that contributed to the polls tightening up.

- McCain went negative. First they blamed Obama for high gas taxes, Then they said Obama didn't visit wounded soldiers. Then they said Obama was just a vapid celebrity. Then they said he rather win a campaign than lose a war, and so on.
- Press access of McCain became more limited. This means he's more on message of the campaign.
- Obama was on vacation. It's easy to lose ground when you're not on the mainland for a week.
- The Russia dust-up I think is probably the biggest factor for why the polls have tightened. It's caused the Republicans to "come home" and create more undecided votes for Obama among Independents and a few dems. McCain's numbers haven't really gone up, it's just Obama's margin is shrinking.

So I don't know why some of you guys are acting so puzzled why the polls have gotten close. Post Obama's Euro-trip, everything has gone McCain's way. It's been a perfect storm in his favor. Gas prices have dipped slightly, the negatives of the Iraq war is drifting out of the public's mind, media wants a close horse-race, participated in a favorable townhall, and a Cold War-era style dust-up has occurred. You guys are seriously surprised the polls are tightening up???

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/vfchome

We can send a powerful message to the special interests that dominate the old politics if millions of people get registered to vote. Recent voter registration drives have registered more than 200,000 new Democrats in Pennsylvania, more than 165,000 new Democrats in North Carolina, and more than 150,000 new Democrats in Indiana. Those numbers just scratch the surface of what's possible.

This is why I'm not worried.

 

[Guts Of Thor]

I remember my political science professor said that who ever was ahead in the polls after Labor Day would go on to win the Presidency and that it has only been incorrect twice I believe.

Anyone else heard something like this?