Dr. Feel Good
Banned
I know the likelihood of Bernie going independent is slim but has any major news outlets done a prediction result of a three way race between Bernie, Hilary, and Trump?
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Politico: Inside the bitter last days of Bernie's revolution
- Thread starter NYCmetsfan
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Night Angel
Member
Bernie steals the youth (white) vote from Hillary, Trump wins.
Now that I think about it he's like the Reagan of the left in how he's gotten a good amount of people to hate government.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
The 3rd party steals votes from the candidate that most closely resembles the 3rd party candidate, giving the win to the candidate that the 3rd party voters are most opposed to. It's stupid, I know.
Which is why we have 2 parties.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that this is the most likely result... But is there any data to really back it up?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Bernie isn't running third party. He said as much last night
nobody is going or should spend money for internet hyptheticals that aren't going to happen
Trojita
Rapid Response Threadmaker
Wait, what?
Are we talking about Chem Trails now?
Hillary Clinton is a strong mainstream liberal and has fought for progressive causes her entire political career starting with the fight for universal healthcare in the early 90s.
Any idea that she is anything other than liberal is assinine. She isn't a socialist, she isn't as far left as Warren, but she is in lockstep with Obama who has been a fantastic president for progressive values.
I've seen this. But I'm looking for objective data, based on this election season.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
Why, though? You don't have to make it any more complicated than that.
Why would that data exist in this case?
The bolded is just an outright falsity, especially wrt foreign policy (where she'll have the most direct influence as president). I don't care how much she tries to paint her candidacy as an Obama third term in the media, there are some stark differences between them on some pretty serious shit. I'm not so sure we would have avoided getting fully sucked into the Syrian war if she were president, for example.
1992, 2000. To a lesser extent Ted Kennedy/ Carter in 1980; but that was just a nasty convention fight that Acomplished nothing and helped bring about 12 years of Reaganism.
It's fucking Reddit. Expect no less.
She *might* be a tick to the right on foreign policy, but let's be clear. Obama was going in until Congress cut the legs out from under him on Syria.
QuantumZebra
Member
I was a huge Bernie fan before he even announced he was running for president, and even I think it's time for him to stop. He fought the good fight, but as progressive, it's time to cut your losses and maintain what dignity he has left, and try to move forward to achieve the best liberal progress we can. He needs to throw his support behind Hillary, and make sure all of his supporters that voting Trump is not a good way to get revenge.
It makes me sad to hear about how he has become in the end here.
On the bright side, it's awesome to see how much excitement there has been for a real liberal this election season. We should build on that momentum and find someone to champion the cause next time.
It makes me sad to hear about how he has become in the end here.
On the bright side, it's awesome to see how much excitement there has been for a real liberal this election season. We should build on that momentum and find someone to champion the cause next time.
Not according to this article http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/
Obama sent the Syria vote to congress to intentionally kill it and provide political cover after he changed his mind about going in.
He was also against getting involved in Libya but was convinced by, among others, Hillary Clinton. There's a direct quote from him in there saying that it was a mistake. And that experience is part of the reason he ended up not giving into the pressure to go into Syria (again, something Hillary was pushing).
You should read the whole article if you have the time. The impression I get from it and pretty much any story I've read about the administration's FP puts him and Clinton on opposing sides more often than not, with Biden being the one who's usually on Obama's side.
He said the mistake in Libya was not planning better for the aftermath, not the intervention itself. There's a pretty distinct difference he made clear in the quote.
Already Torn
Banned
Personally my favorite part is "Heels never think they're heels, they're always the face." Shadow the Hedgehog should take notes.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
That aligns with Obama's Iraq policy (which was disastrous) by not wanting anything to do with Iraq even though al-Maliki was a disaster and should not have been left alone. The only reason Iraq wasn't an even worse situation when Obama took office was that Bush took the time and effort to monitor al-Maliki, coaching him and helping him along via video conferencing on a regular basis.
Basically, foreign policy is hard. There's a lot of grey area and any given decision has plenty of potential negative outcomes on top of any potential positive ones.
So we actually executed this plan as well as I could have expected: We got a UN mandate, we built a coalition, it cost us $1 billionwhich, when it comes to military operations, is very cheap. We averted large-scale civilian casualties, we prevented what almost surely would have been a prolonged and bloody civil conflict. And despite all that, Libya is a mess.
He then does criticize the UK and France for not fully following through as part of the reason, but follows with this:
Obama also blamed internal Libyan dynamics. The degree of tribal division in Libya was greater than our analysts had expected. And our ability to have any kind of structure there that we could interact with and start training and start providing resources broke down very quickly.
Libya proved to him that the Middle East was best avoided. There is no way we should commit to governing the Middle East and North Africa, he recently told a former colleague from the Senate. That would be a basic, fundamental mistake.
It seems pretty clear to me he regrets the decision, or is at least heavily conflicted, regardless of what the EU did or didn't do. And it definitely influenced his decision to not go into Syria.
Palette Swap
Member
I don't think using Obama's presidency as a benchmark is really meaningful, or at least painting him as some stark contrast to how Clinton would behave.
It's not like he's this super dove : he did a lot of saber rattling in Syria, only to end up being toothless, he's drone bombed the fuck out of ME, and under his watch a MSF hospital was bombed a few months ago.
So yeah, I fail to see how it would be night and day between both. At the same time, it's baffling when people equate Hillary to Trump on this.
It's not like he's this super dove : he did a lot of saber rattling in Syria, only to end up being toothless, he's drone bombed the fuck out of ME, and under his watch a MSF hospital was bombed a few months ago.
So yeah, I fail to see how it would be night and day between both. At the same time, it's baffling when people equate Hillary to Trump on this.
UnemployedVillain
Member
Have you watched the Nolan Batman trilogy? He basically went from Harvey Dent to Two Face to Bane
Future PhaZe
Member
i mean it's hard to say she wouldn't be putting pedal to the gas by comparison until she proves us wrong given her record
Here's the BBC link since you didn't actually link to those quotes.
You left that part of the interview out.
Right there he literally says it was the right thing to do but the mistake was not planning better for the aftermath. He literally couldn't have been plainer.
To me it sounds like his regret was not planning for the aftermath better, which is also what he's saying in your quotes.
Reading the full article.
It seems like the people in Sanders campaign are savvy enough to let the captain sink with the ship while they can go find lifeboats and get the hell out of dodge.
The whole blame game about attacking Clinton is a disgrace on Sanders' campaign.
"It wasn't our fault, they started attacking so we responded in kind".
Fuck off!
You claim to run an issue focused campaign but at the 1rst sign of things not going your way you throw your principles into the bin?
What would have happened if Clinton went scorched earth with Sanders? Sierra bianca? NRA ties? Anything Jane Sanders? Young Bernie hilariously bad writing? dictator supporting?
And I can go all day.
And Sanders campaign really believe they had anything on the level of the skeletons in their own closet?
They were delusional for a long time.
And can we leave the Clinton is a warhawk dance out of this thread? Foreign policy is not even discussed in the politico piece.
It seems like the people in Sanders campaign are savvy enough to let the captain sink with the ship while they can go find lifeboats and get the hell out of dodge.
The whole blame game about attacking Clinton is a disgrace on Sanders' campaign.
"It wasn't our fault, they started attacking so we responded in kind".
Fuck off!
You claim to run an issue focused campaign but at the 1rst sign of things not going your way you throw your principles into the bin?
What would have happened if Clinton went scorched earth with Sanders? Sierra bianca? NRA ties? Anything Jane Sanders? Young Bernie hilariously bad writing? dictator supporting?
And I can go all day.
And Sanders campaign really believe they had anything on the level of the skeletons in their own closet?
They were delusional for a long time.
And can we leave the Clinton is a warhawk dance out of this thread? Foreign policy is not even discussed in the politico piece.
So what's the end game then? The US controlling Iraq with a shadow government indefinitely? There's room for criticism here but eventually we were going to leave and whenever that happened the state was going to fracture.
I'm not saying Obama is a benchmark of perfect foreign policy. My biggest problem is definitely his overuse of drones. I'm saying he's preferable to what I can reasonably expect from Hillary's FP, based on their differences chronicled over the last 8 years. I'm also not 100% a dove or non-interventionalist.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I've actually kind of been thinking about Bernie in terms of a Batman villain, mostly due to watching TAS recently. Starts off on the good and honest path, things keep getting worse and worse for him, until he finally snaps, and turns over to the other side, but doesn't want to admit to himself that he's slowly becoming a villain, and still believes he's the righteous one and everyone else is wrong.
It's a template used quite a lot in Batman TAS.
Pagusas
Elden Member
So a coworker at work keeps insisting Bernie can still win, that the super delegates will flip over to him at a contested convention (like truly believes this), and even if he doesn't that he has so many supporters that things will change, because people have never ever been this impowered or into politics, that he's created a revolution and the surge from his campaign wont end.
How do you talk to this?
How do you talk to this?
Just ignore them for a week until he drops out. If they're that brainwashed then there's no helping them until Bernie says he's done.
Maybe make a cash bet with them on Bernie dropping out before July. Might as well make some money off their stupidity.
Since we're on a topic of foreign policy, how does no one see that as a red flag?
Would we be so blind as to accept people who worked with corrupt idiots who made their country worse just because they happen to work for the guy we like or something?
My point is on the fucking purity test every single progressive had to pass this cycle, the fucking campaign manager wouldn't even go anywhere near passing.
WTF? How can you even defend this shit?
The guy manages to give you what you want and you don't even call back to make it happen?
How incompetent do you have to be to be part of Sanders staff?
The supers could certainly flip over to Bernie in a contested convention.
There's not going to be a contested convention.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Back when Obama was declared the winner in 2008, my mother, a Hillary supporter, was furious. She never votes so it doesn't matter, but, she actually believed Hillary would ultimately be the nominee because Obama would be assassinated and they'd grab Hillary to replace him. This wasn't a "this might happen" for her, this was just what was going to happen. She just knew.
8 years later and there's a framed picture of the Obama family in her home and Obama is her favorite president of all the ones she's known in her life.
Just let it work itself out. Emotions are really high right now. Putting all this time and effort (and money) into a candidate, only to see them lose (badly) to someone who you've made into a cartoon villain in your head is really a big blow. After a few weeks, after Bernie drops out, and everything starts to settle, people like that will slowly start coming to their senses. This isn't the first time we've had a primary like this (we just had one 8 years ago lol), and it won't be the last. And it works out alright in the end (most of the time)
Already Torn
Banned
I think that's when you say "You idiot" as contemptuously as possible and walk away. At least do the first part in your head.
I also agree with the person saying you should take advantage of them and take their money.
I was quoting from the Atlantic article I linked to originally, which didn't feature that entire interview.
The quotes also imply that he's skeptical any amount of planning could have avoided Libya becoming a shitshow, since they greatly underestimated the tribal divisions and lost any sort of structure they could interact with almost immediately. And with his conclusion from the whole experience being that we should not attempt to govern the middle east/north Africa and that it would be a huge mistake to do so, I'm not sure he's convinced that the EU following through better would have made a difference in the end.
I don't expect him to come out and publicly say "yeah Libya was a big mistake and I regret it. Sorry." Especially with Clinton running. But it's clear that it's at least one of the decisions he's most heavily conflicted about.
Anyway, this has gotten way off topic. My original point was to refute the claim that Hillary and Obama are in "lockstep" on all the issues.
Nice rewriting of history there Mr Cheney.
Palette Swap
Member
I get what you guys are saying and I'm not calling you super doves (I'm myself ambivalent on the Syria mess TBH), I'm just saying that by this foreign policy metric, people wouldn't have voted for Obama in 2012. Hell, it was an argument floated around back then.
She definitely comes across as more hawkish, but they're in a continuum. Obama's foreign policy is definitely closer to Hillary's than Bernie's.
I'm going to have a smile on my face when we end up with Hillary and you end up with Boris.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
I wanted to like Bernie and hoped he would understand that past a certain point in the primary process the best help he can be toward progressive causes would be to back Hillary.
Instead I found out he's a petulant twat.
Instead I found out he's a petulant twat.
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*sigh* So, how long will Bernie supporters stew in the "the media rigged the election" narrative before they actually check facts, I wonder?
AntraxSuicide
Banned
A metaphor that works a bit better would be that Bernie's a baseball team that's going into the bottom of the ninth down by 4 runs, and his team happens to be really good at defense but not offense (i.e. the demographics at the end weren't his strong suit).
So while it's technically possible for him to get 5 runs and win, he'd need to do what his team is particularly bad at based on the other 8 times he was at bat. It was never going to happen because of that. He was down after his good contests (the Pacific NW), and so he was only ever going to continue losing ground after that.
This strategy of holding out hope that the FBI indicts Hillary, and Bernie swoops in to become the nominee, sounds hilariously misguided. Even if that's his plan, wouldn't it make most sense to then get on Hillary's side and begin campaigning together asap? Most of the party is not united behind Bernie -- and I don't mean the "establishment," but the majority of voters who backed Hillary over him. If Hillary suddenly went to jail this summer, it would be a much smoother transition from her to Bernie for voters if they saw the two as being aligned together, than if they remained opponents.
Probably right after the convention is over.
I don't know about that. From what I've seen Bernie hasn't really said anything about foreign policy other than "I support what president Obama is doing."
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