That's not why I wanna lynch you
Semantics shemantics, I still think it sucks to end the day abruptly when people are finally posting.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
#popMAFIA | So dont let this be our final song
- Thread starter cabot
- Start date
That's not why I wanna lynch you
Semantics shemantics, I still think it sucks to end the day abruptly when people are finally posting.
Maybe you wanted somebody else to end the day and take the blame *shrug*
Yeah, I know. I've been kinda busy with work taking on new responsibilities and all. But regardless...
Crab was someone I looked at's posts last night actually, and I didn't find too much at fault with him. He's been pretty vocal about almost everything and has long thought out arguments when he does post which can be kinda a pain in the ass to read through, but I think he puts up more analysis of details than most people. Right now I don't see him as particularly scummy, and he's not the top of my list. I am, however, wary of him and will continue to re-evaluate as the game goes on based on his reputation.
I could still see scum team being Crab-Coppanuva-Haly
Why do you assume scum!Crab would be "scummy"? He survived for a damn long time in HP after basically being detected N1 (IIRC, never read through it).
Eh, that seems doubtful. Would scum really be bold enough to claim masons?
It's not impossible.
Second team in my thoughts is Crab-Burb-someoneelseprobablykryptikjoker
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It's day 3. The odds you are right about one scum alone are relatively low. And yet you're saying you've got all three! Why are you busy constructing teams? How does that help your thinking?
Creates contradictions that can help my reads.
I also at least wanna try mapping the team out to deter a nk. I'm usually wrong, but it's far from impossible to map out parts of the team on D1.
To be fair, if you pick three people at random odds of getting one scum are actually not bad (assuming three scum left):
Prob (At least one scum) = 1 - 10/13*9/12*8/11
=0.58
Look up batcomputer when this day is over (it's the batman game, midseason in season 5 or 6 I think)
You still haven't answered my questions about you. Why should I town read you?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
that's not how it works, though. by the same logic, if I say I suspect everyone remaining in the game, the odds of getting scum are one. it's true, but it isn't useful. in reality, what happens is you find one person, and start thinking they're scum, and then everything becomes a huge conspiracy, and everyone who seems vaguely friendly to them must be scum, and suddenly you have whole mafia teams leaping out in front of you. in reality, odds are you were wrong about the first person, and then, even if some of the others were scum, your reasoning for why they are is totally wrong, so it doesn't really end up persuading anyone else.
in other words, the relevant maths is not prob (at least one scum), when discussing teams, it is prob(all are correclty scum), which is:
P = 3/15 * 2/14 * 1/13
= 0.002198
which is...
not good.
DAY 3 HAS ENDED
FINAL VOTE TALLY:
Ty4on (0)
coppanuva 476 (517)
cornburrito 483 (509)
bronx-man (0)
sawneeks 480 (512)
flame_ac (5)
haly 493
kryptikjoker 496
ccs 497 (645)
acohrs 499
cornburrito 509
bronx-man 596
haly (1)
flame_ac 500
cornburrito (7)
lord of castamere 505
burbeting 521
coppanuva 584
sawneeks 604
ty4on 617 (641)
crab 640
ccs 645
ty4on 664
crab (0)
ty4on 562 (602)
ty4on 641 (664)
burbeting (0)
crab 589 (640)
ty4on 602 (617)
FINAL VOTE TALLY:
Ty4on (0)
bronx-man (0)
flame_ac (5)
haly 493
kryptikjoker 496
acohrs 499
cornburrito 509
bronx-man 596
haly (1)
flame_ac 500
cornburrito (7)
lord of castamere 505
burbeting 521
coppanuva 584
sawneeks 604
crab 640
ccs 645
ty4on 664
crab (0)
burbeting (0)
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm not going to answer. Waste of time. I'm not analyzing my own play as town; I'm town and want to find scum and that informs all my play. You can ask me why I've voted as I've voted, or what I think of various people, and I'll answer, but I'm not doing your work for you on why I am town. That should be entirely evident from what I'm posting. If it isn't, try and persuade other people of that and get them to lynch me. Good luck.
Away from the madding crowd in a heavily guarded yet quiet room, a man stands in front of a full-length mirror. He adjusts his hair and his tie. Standing ramrod straight, he raises one hand.
"I do solemnly swear--ahem, I do, ahem, sow-len-lem-lee sowlemnly solemnly, ahem"
He sways a bit as he works his mouth.
"Solenly, no solemmmly, solemm-lee"
He squints. Is that a bead of sweat on his forehead?
A memory bubbles to the surface unbidden. He's 12 years old and his mother is combing his hair as he stands impeccably dressed. His father, arms crossed, watches on.
"Wait, are you sweating? In this climate-controlled room?"
His lips suddenly dry, he stammers out "Father, I'm nervous."
"Why would you be nervous?" his father barks out. "You've been prepared for this your whole life. You are a paragon of our kind. Men want to be you. Women want to be with you. They should be nervous. Now stand up straighter and repeat after me: They are the nervous ones."
"They are the nervous ones."
"Remember that. Now go."
A knock interrupts the man from his reverie. "Mr. President?" His Chief of Staff is at the door.
Not moving, the President snaps "what is it? Did I not ask to not be disturbed?"
"There is someone who wants to see you. I can't understand anything he's saying, but he claims to be the famous singer Robbie Williams."
"Who?"
"Exactly. Robert Peter "Robbie" Williams (born 13 February 1974) is an English singer--"
"Stop, I don't need his Wikipedia entry verbatim. He's not American. Kick him out."
"Of the area?"
"Of the country."
"Sir, I'm not sure--"
His face darkening, the President takes a menacing step forward. "Get out."
"Yessir right away sir" the Chief of Staff squeaks out, backpedaling furiously.
The President smiles. They are the nervous ones.
CornBurrito has been ejected from the game!
The Night Phase is now 48 hours.
Day 4 Begins
The OFFICIAL #popMAFIA playlist AM I POP? has been updated. It can be found HERE.
"I do solemnly swear--ahem, I do, ahem, sow-len-lem-lee sowlemnly solemnly, ahem"
He sways a bit as he works his mouth.
"Solenly, no solemmmly, solemm-lee"
He squints. Is that a bead of sweat on his forehead?
A memory bubbles to the surface unbidden. He's 12 years old and his mother is combing his hair as he stands impeccably dressed. His father, arms crossed, watches on.
"Wait, are you sweating? In this climate-controlled room?"
His lips suddenly dry, he stammers out "Father, I'm nervous."
"Why would you be nervous?" his father barks out. "You've been prepared for this your whole life. You are a paragon of our kind. Men want to be you. Women want to be with you. They should be nervous. Now stand up straighter and repeat after me: They are the nervous ones."
"They are the nervous ones."
"Remember that. Now go."
A knock interrupts the man from his reverie. "Mr. President?" His Chief of Staff is at the door.
Not moving, the President snaps "what is it? Did I not ask to not be disturbed?"
"There is someone who wants to see you. I can't understand anything he's saying, but he claims to be the famous singer Robbie Williams."
"Who?"
"Exactly. Robert Peter "Robbie" Williams (born 13 February 1974) is an English singer--"
"Stop, I don't need his Wikipedia entry verbatim. He's not American. Kick him out."
"Of the area?"
"Of the country."
"Sir, I'm not sure--"
His face darkening, the President takes a menacing step forward. "Get out."
"Yessir right away sir" the Chief of Staff squeaks out, backpedaling furiously.
The President smiles. They are the nervous ones.
CornBurrito has been ejected from the game!
The Night Phase is now 48 hours.
Day 4 Begins
The OFFICIAL #popMAFIA playlist AM I POP? has been updated. It can be found HERE.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Oops, sorry cab - went for a cuppa mid post.
DAY 4 BEGINS
On a hotel balcony overlooking the Capitol, two individuals watch as the President is sworn in.
"That anthem was bloody embarrassing," said the one named Chris.
"It's a Sin, to be sure", nods the one named Neil.
A knock can be heard behind the duo. Chris turns. "Now who could that be?" He walks over and opens the door, to be met by a swarm of screaming women.
"What the-" exclaims Neil.
"Give me a hand, here!" shouts Chris. Neil rushes over and the two manage to keep the women out, slamming their door shut.
"What was that?" gasps Chris.
"West End Girls?" jokes Neil.
"Nah, too old. Definitely not a swarm of Twenty-somethings."
"How did they know where we were?" asks Neil.
"And why would they even care? We're a couple Brits in America and our biggest song was over 30 years ago!"
"Yeah I was wondering about that. Doesn't seem realistic."
Their phones buzz. Both of their eyes widen.
"Robbie Williams was kicked out? For being British? What did he do to deserve that?"
"It's not safe for us here. The crowds, the security. Let's Go West."
Haly has been ejected from the game!
Coppanuva has been ejected from the game!
Day 4 Ends:
10 players remain.
6 votes for majority.
On a hotel balcony overlooking the Capitol, two individuals watch as the President is sworn in.
"That anthem was bloody embarrassing," said the one named Chris.
"It's a Sin, to be sure", nods the one named Neil.
A knock can be heard behind the duo. Chris turns. "Now who could that be?" He walks over and opens the door, to be met by a swarm of screaming women.
"What the-" exclaims Neil.
"Give me a hand, here!" shouts Chris. Neil rushes over and the two manage to keep the women out, slamming their door shut.
"What was that?" gasps Chris.
"West End Girls?" jokes Neil.
"Nah, too old. Definitely not a swarm of Twenty-somethings."
"How did they know where we were?" asks Neil.
"And why would they even care? We're a couple Brits in America and our biggest song was over 30 years ago!"
"Yeah I was wondering about that. Doesn't seem realistic."
Their phones buzz. Both of their eyes widen.
"Robbie Williams was kicked out? For being British? What did he do to deserve that?"
"It's not safe for us here. The crowds, the security. Let's Go West."
Haly has been ejected from the game!
Coppanuva has been ejected from the game!
Day 4 Ends:
10 players remain.
6 votes for majority.
First up guys, I want to apologise for my last minute fuck up. I second guessed myself, I panicked a bit, I switched my vote to Corn and now we've lost another town. I am truly, deeply sorry for that.
I don't really know where to go from here to be honest. I truly thought both Corn and Flame were probably scum, so having to rebuild from that broken theory (at least on Corn's side) isn't easy.
I imagine I must look pretty bad right now. I actually feel pretty bad. I hate lynching innocents, especially when it's my own fault for making a stupid decision.
Masons being killed was a fairly predictable call. Sadly, not one that helps us much, except that we know that scum have a multikill.
I don't really know where to go from here to be honest. I truly thought both Corn and Flame were probably scum, so having to rebuild from that broken theory (at least on Corn's side) isn't easy.
I imagine I must look pretty bad right now. I actually feel pretty bad. I hate lynching innocents, especially when it's my own fault for making a stupid decision.
Masons being killed was a fairly predictable call. Sadly, not one that helps us much, except that we know that scum have a multikill.
Oh shit, didn't coppanuva say he wasn't feeling right? I remember as I replied to him with a jokey post about rockwell. Could he have been trying to say something??
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Cabot, just to confirm: these are definitely Masons and not Lovers, right? As in, if one were killed/lynched, that wouldn't automatically kill the other just by the conditions of their roles, and both would have to be killed separately?
Their roles don't specify that they die together right? And surely a town vigilante wouldn't be stupid enough to do that.
Surely.
I hadn't seen this. This looks like it could be poison to me. Maybe they were timing it after the claim?
Here this post, the last line in bold. He knew something was wrong
Forgot about that one, posted his other quote just now. When was that first one ty4on?
I have no idea, I hadn't seen them until now and I'm on mobile.
Found it
12-03-2016, 03:21 PM, Post #485
So whatever killed him took one day and night phase. Nobody else has reported anything similar so he must have been the first to be poisoned. Is there a chance that they can only poison one player or is it likely that they have another 'shot'?
Hm, that's what I was worried about. Coppa's message the other Day reminded me of the PM I got when I was poisoned in HP, although a lot more vague. RIP Coppa and Haly. :c
Also, just to be 100% clear, who did you target last night LoC?
Would Scum be so bold, though? Unless Flame has a really strong ability that they want to save I couldn't see Scum!Ty jumping out like that.
Speaking of which
Vote: Flame_AC
Because I didn't like that shift yesterday and there are still a lot of unanswered questions you need to respond to.
Also, just to be 100% clear, who did you target last night LoC?
Would Scum be so bold, though? Unless Flame has a really strong ability that they want to save I couldn't see Scum!Ty jumping out like that.
Speaking of which
Vote: Flame_AC
Because I didn't like that shift yesterday and there are still a lot of unanswered questions you need to respond to.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Okay. Interesting. LoC, did you target someone tonight? Who did you target?
I think it is unlikely scum have multikill. That is an exceptionally powerful role - it's functionally equivalent to have an extra scum player (insofar as you can win from 3 scum - 4 town for certain instead of 3 scum - 3 town). If it was a scum multikill, then there were probably only 3 scum to begin with, and now 2 remaining. But I think that is somewhat unlikely - it can make games very swingy if the multikill scum role gets lynched early before they commit to a double-kill. Works in larger games but this one is smaller and I don't think cabot would have designed it that way, though prepared to be wrong. If there is multikill, this might sound strange, but I think our job is easier rather than harder now, because I think that would heavily imply there are less scum than we thought. But again, I think this is unlikely, and that the kill came from another role.
The trouble is, that makes for a lot of killing roles. Occam's Razor: mafia has one kill, and LoC has his kills, LoC is indeed town. Mafia killing one of the Masons makes perfect sense - they're functionally confirmed town to us. But LoC wouldn't target the other one. So, you'd need a role that changes targets - a switcher. That's a common role, and plausible. Option one: they're town-aligned, and this night was just a total fuck-up from town's perspective. Option two: they're scum-aligned. Option two, I think is, less likely - if I was a Tracker or a Watcher or Voyeur or any kind of watching role, I'm probably going to be on the confirmed town. If I was a mafia switcher, I'm not going anywhere near the either of the Masons - getting caught or blocked just seemed risky. So, right now, I'm thinking most likely option is: there's a town switcher, and we had a massive fuck up.
So, other alternatives. LoC is not town - possibly neutral. I still doubt mafia multi-kill for the reasons earlier, so that leaves neutral. Serial killers claiming to be town vigilantes is super common - it's a good cover if caught, although I think risky because it invites a mafia kill. It depends how the SK plays - if they're just trying to survive and don't seem to be going after mafia, I'd let them live - faster town death rate is better scum win rate. So we have the very plausible possibility LoC is a serial killer, although two neutrals would be at least somewhat unusual for such a small game.
Final alternative: there's another killing role, either town- or neutral- aligned. Seems unlikely. If LoC is town, well, I don't think anyone is giving town two killing roles, even if the remaining one is one-shot or has heavy restrictions. Another neutral killing role is possible, but again, by rule of simplest, LoC being the neutral killing role if there is one is more plausible.
I think in terms of likeliness:
1. Town switcher fucked up
2. LoC is neutral killer
3. There is a mafia switcher
4. There is a neutral killer that is not LoC
5. There is a mafia multi-kill / there is another town killing role.
Otherwise, not informative for town out of the night itself, which is unfortunate. The Masons claiming so early I think was a mistake, they were a very easy and attractive kill, and even if say Haly had died early, Coppa could have claimed mason later on and it would have needed a scum counterclaim, so losing one would not have been the end of the world - plus that assumes that we actually did lynch Haly; I think he's a good enough player to defend himself (or LoC shoots him, but then the prior argument still applies). So I think not the best play - and this seems to be recurring theme for town, with LoC NKing earlier and people not posting much and arguments for No Lynches and what not. I think we really need to get our act together.
I do want to hear from LoC very much now, though. I want to know his target.
I think it is unlikely scum have multikill. That is an exceptionally powerful role - it's functionally equivalent to have an extra scum player (insofar as you can win from 3 scum - 4 town for certain instead of 3 scum - 3 town). If it was a scum multikill, then there were probably only 3 scum to begin with, and now 2 remaining. But I think that is somewhat unlikely - it can make games very swingy if the multikill scum role gets lynched early before they commit to a double-kill. Works in larger games but this one is smaller and I don't think cabot would have designed it that way, though prepared to be wrong. If there is multikill, this might sound strange, but I think our job is easier rather than harder now, because I think that would heavily imply there are less scum than we thought. But again, I think this is unlikely, and that the kill came from another role.
The trouble is, that makes for a lot of killing roles. Occam's Razor: mafia has one kill, and LoC has his kills, LoC is indeed town. Mafia killing one of the Masons makes perfect sense - they're functionally confirmed town to us. But LoC wouldn't target the other one. So, you'd need a role that changes targets - a switcher. That's a common role, and plausible. Option one: they're town-aligned, and this night was just a total fuck-up from town's perspective. Option two: they're scum-aligned. Option two, I think is, less likely - if I was a Tracker or a Watcher or Voyeur or any kind of watching role, I'm probably going to be on the confirmed town. If I was a mafia switcher, I'm not going anywhere near the either of the Masons - getting caught or blocked just seemed risky. So, right now, I'm thinking most likely option is: there's a town switcher, and we had a massive fuck up.
So, other alternatives. LoC is not town - possibly neutral. I still doubt mafia multi-kill for the reasons earlier, so that leaves neutral. Serial killers claiming to be town vigilantes is super common - it's a good cover if caught, although I think risky because it invites a mafia kill. It depends how the SK plays - if they're just trying to survive and don't seem to be going after mafia, I'd let them live - faster town death rate is better scum win rate. So we have the very plausible possibility LoC is a serial killer, although two neutrals would be at least somewhat unusual for such a small game.
Final alternative: there's another killing role, either town- or neutral- aligned. Seems unlikely. If LoC is town, well, I don't think anyone is giving town two killing roles, even if the remaining one is one-shot or has heavy restrictions. Another neutral killing role is possible, but again, by rule of simplest, LoC being the neutral killing role if there is one is more plausible.
I think in terms of likeliness:
1. Town switcher fucked up
2. LoC is neutral killer
3. There is a mafia switcher
4. There is a neutral killer that is not LoC
5. There is a mafia multi-kill / there is another town killing role.
Otherwise, not informative for town out of the night itself, which is unfortunate. The Masons claiming so early I think was a mistake, they were a very easy and attractive kill, and even if say Haly had died early, Coppa could have claimed mason later on and it would have needed a scum counterclaim, so losing one would not have been the end of the world - plus that assumes that we actually did lynch Haly; I think he's a good enough player to defend himself (or LoC shoots him, but then the prior argument still applies). So I think not the best play - and this seems to be recurring theme for town, with LoC NKing earlier and people not posting much and arguments for No Lynches and what not. I think we really need to get our act together.
I do want to hear from LoC very much now, though. I want to know his target.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Oh, I missed discussion of Coppanuva's PM. Okay, that explains even more why Haly was killed, then. Hrm. Poisoner is a plausible multi-kill because the slow delay makes it much less useful - gives people time to claim and so on, so can't really be a sudden strikes against potential cops and the like. So scratch that, definitely a possibility. Nobody has said anything about receiving another PM though, so tentatively going to call it a one-shot.
But I still want to know what LoC did.
But I still want to know what LoC did.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
oh and VOTE: Burbeting
because I stand by what I said yesterday and also I think the kill pattern is more and more revealing relatively experienced scum. Don't think this is their first rodeo by any means.
because I stand by what I said yesterday and also I think the kill pattern is more and more revealing relatively experienced scum. Don't think this is their first rodeo by any means.
I jumped out 10 seconds before the timer went out btw
I thought they were tied actually and preferred the Corn lynch. Forgot CCS' vote flipped the score.
VOTE: CCS
I like when people answer me right away. You're usually pretty active.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I jumped out 10 seconds before the timer went out btw
I thought they were tied actually and preferred the Corn lynch. Forgot CCS' vote flipped the score.
VOTE: CCS
I like when people answer me right away. You're usually pretty active.
Why are you voting CCS? Like, yes, he flipped the lynch. But we don't know Flame's alignment. It's pretty plausible we flipped from one town to another town, especially given that was only Day 3. Unless you are convinced that Flame is scum, there's no specific reason to suppose CCS is scum. And if you are convinced that Flame is scum, why are you not starting there?
Agree that flame still has some questions to answer, especially voting for Haly to be lynched the day before the night cycle that he was killed.
Start talking Flame or I am going to vote for you too
Last post of the night before bed, I'll catch up in the morning.
I still think Flame may well be scum, but I'm slightly less sure than before. Simply because now it seems like even if he is then two scum have managed to go under the radar, so it's possible we're barking up completely the wrong tree before.
Is this because of the score flip? Not too fussed, just want to know
I still think Flame may well be scum, but I'm slightly less sure than before. Simply because now it seems like even if he is then two scum have managed to go under the radar, so it's possible we're barking up completely the wrong tree before.
I jumped out 10 seconds before the timer went out btw
I thought they were tied actually and preferred the Corn lynch. Forgot CCS' vote flipped the score.
VOTE: CCS
I like when people answer me right away. You're usually pretty active.
Is this because of the score flip? Not too fussed, just want to know
Is this because of the score flip? Not too fussed, just want to know
Whoops, brain fart. Forgot you had answered me >_>
UNVOTE
To answer you Crab I didn't like that he speculated on scum double kill without speculating on the method they used
How did you miss Coppa claiming he didn't feel well?
I'm kinda scratching my head as to why I didn't see it, but I figured people playing at the time would have noticed.