#popMAFIA | So dont let this be our final song
- Thread starter cabot
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CornBurrito
Member
I believe Not currently has the fewest posts.
I'm actually fine switching my vote to the least active person.
I'm actually fine switching my vote to the least active person.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Okay, so.
We have our first few pieces of definite information. That's important, and it should have energized town. But it doesn't seem to have been examined in much depth, so let's go over it.
First up: we lynched scum. Not only that, we lynched scum tracker - a powerful role, possibly even the most powerful for scum team because it lets them find our PRs. Certainly more powerful than scum roleblocker or godfather in my opinion. And we did that day one! That's good news.
So, how did we do it? Well, the vote tally went: Bronx, Crab, Sawneeks, Pop-O-Matic, Burbeting, Kalor. What does that tell us about these people? So, my first thought is: the early adopters probably won't be scum. It's one thing to bus. It happens. However, it's an entirely different thing to bus someone all the way to lynch right from the start of day one, especially when they're such a powerful role. This early on, scum know barely more than we do. They don't know who the PRs are, or what they do, or whether there are third parties, or how much information town gets. One of the few ways they can find this out is by using roles like the tracker. They'll be especially keen to identify any possible cops. Certainly, the 'townie points' they win from participating in a bus are absolutely *nothing* compared to the use of having the tracker still alive.
So, my thoughts are that: early participators are probably town. Maybe not the very first people - before it becomes clear that QB was heading to the lynch - but I'm reasonably confident now that Sawneeks is town. So that's useful.
Unfortunately, fmpov, that's just one extra piece of information. Bronx was the very first vote, and I don't think at that stage it was obvious that QB would take off. Pop-O-Matic voted QB to break the tie and shift the lynch off themselves. It's plausible at least that they could be scum with an even more useful role than QB. By burbeting and especially Kalor, it's relatively clear this wagon was going to happen - this is where the bus would be, amongst latecomers keen to win brownie points when the situation wasn't going to change anyway. So while I think this makes Sawneeks clear and it should make me clear to the rest of you, it's not that useful to me personally.
Also, there were only 6 voters at a point in the game there were 17 players. My guess is that with 17 players, and with 1 of those being neutral, there are at most 4 scum - and I wouldn't be surprised if it was only 3. That means, excluding QB, we're looking at 3 or 2 to go. Which means they could have been totally uninvolved with either QB or Pop-O-Matic. So I can't really move from the QB vote list any further. And the Pop-O-Matic vote list doesn't help us at all - it completely lost momentum after evilisk's vote.
So, what has QB said? Unfortunately... not much (and this is where town's poor activity has really hurt us - nobody's been forced to put material out there).
First is dropping the hint that the scum are Apple-themed. Possibility 1: joke. Possibility 2: slip. Possibility 3: he wanted us to think he was a town PR with some inside information to drop casually; with that information intended to mislead us. I think 3 is reasonably possible. For example, suppose we have a rolecop, and that rolecop had investigated QB, and found Adam Levine; and that we'd believed QB's "mafia are Apple" thing. Well, we'd not have thought the Adam Levine role was scum. So my thoughts are: scum are (probably) just popstars - just ones cabot doesn't like (Taylor Swift scum confirmed?).
So, QB's reads list. We have:
The thing about the way people work is that we can't do random. At least on day one, everyone's guesses are more or less randomly distributed - for town players, you're about as likely to get all the scum team correct as you are wrong. But mafia read lists? Well, you don't put all the scum in your town list - you space them out. It's the same thing they use to find non-random numbers in accounting - people use 16384632 when 2000000 is equally probable, because people "feel" like rounded numbers are less probable. Mafia struggle to replicate the inaccuracies of early-day town.
So, my thoughts: scum are probably spaced out throughout this list.
What else leaps out about this list? Well, there was an early wagon building on Pop-O-Matic, and Pop was acting real weird. Such a confident read on someone most of us felt a little peturbed by strikes me as classic confidence building - as scum, if you know someone is town, and everyone else really doubts them, then when they're lynched and flipped town, you look both prescient and like a real townie fellow. So this makes me a little less worried of Pop-O-Matic than I was yesterday - although I am still deeply uncomfortable with their overall play. The one thing I am cautious of: the one reason scum might lynch QB is to overturn from an even worse lynch. So I'm keeping a tab on the probability P-o-M is an especially useful scum role.
There's probably a scum in lean town somewhere. I feel reasonably alright about Sawneeks for the time being, and LoC for reasons I'll explain shortly. So Kalor and CornBurrito are high up on my list of lynchees for the time being. Equally, there's probably scum in leans scum/scum, although I don't have sufficient reasons to pick out anyone in particular.
But that's not the only information we got from yesterday. We got a glimpse of scum's choices. So, night reconstruction: combine is dead. Given combine's ability, they have to be directly targeted. If LoC is truthtelling, well, that's probably all of our killing roles. Having vig, maf, and another is 3 kills a night - the game'd be over in ridiculous time. So it's probably just vig and maf. Vig claims targeting the not especially dead Haly. So mafia must have targeted combine.
Why?
combine was a pretty inoffensive player. They cast mild shade on CCS in #140. They hinted at having more information they didn't share - picked up on by Sawneeks in #221, which a lot of people passed over (myself included). That's... about it. There's almost nothing at all going on there, in any way. Quiet, unremarkable, passed almost without mention.
This tells me scumteam are probably pretty experienced. It's common for new scum to target the bigname scary experienced players, only to get docblocked and caught out by trackers early. Experienced scum? They pick off the stragglers. combine didn't really suspect anyone, or trust anyone - so in their death, we don't know whether they were on to something, or whether scum didn't want someone to be trusted. A doctor or tracker would be unlikely to be on them. It is a quiet kill, doesn't draw attention, doesn't give information. There's an outside chance that they were killed for what Sawneeks noticed in #221, but I think that's unlikely.
So: we're looking at experienced scum team, with 2-3 members remaining. Likely one in Kalor/CornBurrito.
More in next post.
We have our first few pieces of definite information. That's important, and it should have energized town. But it doesn't seem to have been examined in much depth, so let's go over it.
First up: we lynched scum. Not only that, we lynched scum tracker - a powerful role, possibly even the most powerful for scum team because it lets them find our PRs. Certainly more powerful than scum roleblocker or godfather in my opinion. And we did that day one! That's good news.
So, how did we do it? Well, the vote tally went: Bronx, Crab, Sawneeks, Pop-O-Matic, Burbeting, Kalor. What does that tell us about these people? So, my first thought is: the early adopters probably won't be scum. It's one thing to bus. It happens. However, it's an entirely different thing to bus someone all the way to lynch right from the start of day one, especially when they're such a powerful role. This early on, scum know barely more than we do. They don't know who the PRs are, or what they do, or whether there are third parties, or how much information town gets. One of the few ways they can find this out is by using roles like the tracker. They'll be especially keen to identify any possible cops. Certainly, the 'townie points' they win from participating in a bus are absolutely *nothing* compared to the use of having the tracker still alive.
So, my thoughts are that: early participators are probably town. Maybe not the very first people - before it becomes clear that QB was heading to the lynch - but I'm reasonably confident now that Sawneeks is town. So that's useful.
Unfortunately, fmpov, that's just one extra piece of information. Bronx was the very first vote, and I don't think at that stage it was obvious that QB would take off. Pop-O-Matic voted QB to break the tie and shift the lynch off themselves. It's plausible at least that they could be scum with an even more useful role than QB. By burbeting and especially Kalor, it's relatively clear this wagon was going to happen - this is where the bus would be, amongst latecomers keen to win brownie points when the situation wasn't going to change anyway. So while I think this makes Sawneeks clear and it should make me clear to the rest of you, it's not that useful to me personally.
Also, there were only 6 voters at a point in the game there were 17 players. My guess is that with 17 players, and with 1 of those being neutral, there are at most 4 scum - and I wouldn't be surprised if it was only 3. That means, excluding QB, we're looking at 3 or 2 to go. Which means they could have been totally uninvolved with either QB or Pop-O-Matic. So I can't really move from the QB vote list any further. And the Pop-O-Matic vote list doesn't help us at all - it completely lost momentum after evilisk's vote.
So, what has QB said? Unfortunately... not much (and this is where town's poor activity has really hurt us - nobody's been forced to put material out there).
First is dropping the hint that the scum are Apple-themed. Possibility 1: joke. Possibility 2: slip. Possibility 3: he wanted us to think he was a town PR with some inside information to drop casually; with that information intended to mislead us. I think 3 is reasonably possible. For example, suppose we have a rolecop, and that rolecop had investigated QB, and found Adam Levine; and that we'd believed QB's "mafia are Apple" thing. Well, we'd not have thought the Adam Levine role was scum. So my thoughts are: scum are (probably) just popstars - just ones cabot doesn't like (Taylor Swift scum confirmed?).
So, QB's reads list. We have:
The thing about the way people work is that we can't do random. At least on day one, everyone's guesses are more or less randomly distributed - for town players, you're about as likely to get all the scum team correct as you are wrong. But mafia read lists? Well, you don't put all the scum in your town list - you space them out. It's the same thing they use to find non-random numbers in accounting - people use 16384632 when 2000000 is equally probable, because people "feel" like rounded numbers are less probable. Mafia struggle to replicate the inaccuracies of early-day town.
So, my thoughts: scum are probably spaced out throughout this list.
What else leaps out about this list? Well, there was an early wagon building on Pop-O-Matic, and Pop was acting real weird. Such a confident read on someone most of us felt a little peturbed by strikes me as classic confidence building - as scum, if you know someone is town, and everyone else really doubts them, then when they're lynched and flipped town, you look both prescient and like a real townie fellow. So this makes me a little less worried of Pop-O-Matic than I was yesterday - although I am still deeply uncomfortable with their overall play. The one thing I am cautious of: the one reason scum might lynch QB is to overturn from an even worse lynch. So I'm keeping a tab on the probability P-o-M is an especially useful scum role.
There's probably a scum in lean town somewhere. I feel reasonably alright about Sawneeks for the time being, and LoC for reasons I'll explain shortly. So Kalor and CornBurrito are high up on my list of lynchees for the time being. Equally, there's probably scum in leans scum/scum, although I don't have sufficient reasons to pick out anyone in particular.
But that's not the only information we got from yesterday. We got a glimpse of scum's choices. So, night reconstruction: combine is dead. Given combine's ability, they have to be directly targeted. If LoC is truthtelling, well, that's probably all of our killing roles. Having vig, maf, and another is 3 kills a night - the game'd be over in ridiculous time. So it's probably just vig and maf. Vig claims targeting the not especially dead Haly. So mafia must have targeted combine.
Why?
combine was a pretty inoffensive player. They cast mild shade on CCS in #140. They hinted at having more information they didn't share - picked up on by Sawneeks in #221, which a lot of people passed over (myself included). That's... about it. There's almost nothing at all going on there, in any way. Quiet, unremarkable, passed almost without mention.
This tells me scumteam are probably pretty experienced. It's common for new scum to target the bigname scary experienced players, only to get docblocked and caught out by trackers early. Experienced scum? They pick off the stragglers. combine didn't really suspect anyone, or trust anyone - so in their death, we don't know whether they were on to something, or whether scum didn't want someone to be trusted. A doctor or tracker would be unlikely to be on them. It is a quiet kill, doesn't draw attention, doesn't give information. There's an outside chance that they were killed for what Sawneeks noticed in #221, but I think that's unlikely.
So: we're looking at experienced scum team, with 2-3 members remaining. Likely one in Kalor/CornBurrito.
More in next post.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
(feel free to continue posting, next post may have to be tomorrow morning)
I would've accepted 4 scum had combine not flipped neutral. 3 scum, 1 neut and 13 town seems to be a good ratio. Right between the 20%-25% range I mentioned earlier. Although given the eccentricity of the theme and the game runner I could see another neut.
Commentating on Haly vs Castamere first
I don't really think either of them are scum at the moment. On Castamere's case:
I doubt scum Castamere would have claimed vigilante, especially after scum got already lynched on D1. Claiming a power role, and then surviving for multiple nights (especially apparent multi-shot vigilante, which would be potentially dangeous role for scum) would look suspicious, so scum LoC would have basically sealed his fate for... some reason? I can't find any scum motivation to claim, unless they are some scum cop that found out Haly has some absurdly powerful role. But I don't think we have scum cop either.
I don't think Haly is scum either because of LoC targeting him. If we believe LoC's claim is genuine, that means we would have two powers with multiple kills (scum night kill, and multi-shot vigilante). It seems logical that there would be multiple different protective roles to counter this. Combine's flip already seems to confirm one counter to killing roles. By Occam's razor, it seems more likely that Haly was being protected by some power. Obviously it's possible that he is a BP-scum, but that's just one possibility out of many. More likely scenario is something else happened. This doesn't mean Haly is not scum, but this reasoning for it seems unlikely to me.
Some of the votes on Haly just feel little lazy right now. Case in point:
I'll look at Bronx in my next post.
I don't really think either of them are scum at the moment. On Castamere's case:
I doubt scum Castamere would have claimed vigilante, especially after scum got already lynched on D1. Claiming a power role, and then surviving for multiple nights (especially apparent multi-shot vigilante, which would be potentially dangeous role for scum) would look suspicious, so scum LoC would have basically sealed his fate for... some reason? I can't find any scum motivation to claim, unless they are some scum cop that found out Haly has some absurdly powerful role. But I don't think we have scum cop either.
I don't think Haly is scum either because of LoC targeting him. If we believe LoC's claim is genuine, that means we would have two powers with multiple kills (scum night kill, and multi-shot vigilante). It seems logical that there would be multiple different protective roles to counter this. Combine's flip already seems to confirm one counter to killing roles. By Occam's razor, it seems more likely that Haly was being protected by some power. Obviously it's possible that he is a BP-scum, but that's just one possibility out of many. More likely scenario is something else happened. This doesn't mean Haly is not scum, but this reasoning for it seems unlikely to me.
Some of the votes on Haly just feel little lazy right now. Case in point:
---
I'll look at Bronx in my next post.
Case Bronx-Man:
So, Bronx was the first vote on QuantumBro. The vote is due to apparent slip QB made:
The reasoning itself is ok, it was made during the early-ish Day 1 stuff. I also don't think that it's inherently scummy for Bronx to keep on sitting on that vote, either. It's what he has been generally doing in the games past, or so I at least feel. So this reasoning Pop did:
Seems bit too confirmation biased in many ways. "Bronx is scum because he did thing X! He didn't stop doing it because it would have looked even more scummy!"
However, that's not the whole picture. What bothers me with Bronx D1 is this:
This was Bronx's last post. The content is not the problem, but that it was posted two days before the day end. That means Bronx didn't post during the last half of the day 1, which could easily mean many things. He might have been coasting along (like many others have done), sitting on his vote. However, it might also mean he just didn't read the thread during the time. When he put his vote, QB wasn't really a vote leader or anything, Bronx might have just assumed that he wasn't going to end up being lynched. Scum voting another scum with no danger included is not that rare.
Scum being not around to notice a lynch train appearing on their scum teammate so they can't try to re-direct it is not unheard of either, I think the last time that happened was in Wedding Mafia, and weemadarthur, where half of the scum were not paying attention to the thread, so their godfather ended up being lynched.
It's a little suspicious. I wouldn't be against voting for Bronx at the moment, but I want to look at other QB voters again.
So, Bronx was the first vote on QuantumBro. The vote is due to apparent slip QB made:
The reasoning itself is ok, it was made during the early-ish Day 1 stuff. I also don't think that it's inherently scummy for Bronx to keep on sitting on that vote, either. It's what he has been generally doing in the games past, or so I at least feel. So this reasoning Pop did:
Seems bit too confirmation biased in many ways. "Bronx is scum because he did thing X! He didn't stop doing it because it would have looked even more scummy!"
However, that's not the whole picture. What bothers me with Bronx D1 is this:
This was Bronx's last post. The content is not the problem, but that it was posted two days before the day end. That means Bronx didn't post during the last half of the day 1, which could easily mean many things. He might have been coasting along (like many others have done), sitting on his vote. However, it might also mean he just didn't read the thread during the time. When he put his vote, QB wasn't really a vote leader or anything, Bronx might have just assumed that he wasn't going to end up being lynched. Scum voting another scum with no danger included is not that rare.
Scum being not around to notice a lynch train appearing on their scum teammate so they can't try to re-direct it is not unheard of either, I think the last time that happened was in Wedding Mafia, and weemadarthur, where half of the scum were not paying attention to the thread, so their godfather ended up being lynched.
It's a little suspicious. I wouldn't be against voting for Bronx at the moment, but I want to look at other QB voters again.
Timeline of QB votes:
During post 252 vote count, QB had one vote (Bronx). Pop is the vote leader with three votes, kryptik, combine, me and Evillisk have two votes.
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Crab votes around 85 minutes before deadline:
The reasoning here is solid enough, although QB's flip doesn't really reveal if the scum team have any connection to Apple or not (Unless Maroon 5 has some connection that I'm not aware of). The vote put QB to two votes, and dropped Evillisk to one. It didn't put QB to vote leader, but definitely lot closer.
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Sawneeks votes around 40 minutes before deadline.
I agree with Saw that the vote list makers were suspicious on D1 (it was my reasoning on the QB vote too). This puts QB to 3 votes, against Pop's 3. I don't know if scum would be daring enough to push their scum member (scum tracker too) to being tied vote leader. It's possible, but feels little unlikely, which makes me feel better about Saw.
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Pop votes for QB five minutes later:
Pushing yourself out of vote leader is pretty normal. It's not very alignment indicative either, though. QB being a scum tracker means that scum would have maybe wanted to keep him alive, but even then scum Pop would have most likely had to vote on QB, because it would have looked suspicious later. Although to note, QB never voted on Pop to try to save himself either. However, I do stand by what I said yesterday, I don't really get scum vibes from Pop. His "I'm scum" claim yesterday didn't feel like a scum trying to do unnecessary gambit.
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I vote 10 minutes or so after Pop, 25 minutes before deadline:
I stand with these reasonings. QB was one of the people who posted super-early D1 reads that had everyone, based on around 2 pages of posts, 1 page if you're 100pp. Just making a list like that feels like fake contribution. The same reasoning is what makes LoC and Kryptik look bit more suspicious to me, although I don't know if multiple scum would have jumped on that same fake contribution train. I don't get scum vibes from Pop still, and Evillisk's response yesterday made me feel bit better about him.
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Kalor votes six minutes after me, 20 minutes before deadline.
Kalor's vote is a little suspicious. It feels somewhat bussy, and Kalor never even mentioned QuantumBro before voting him. It's a little concerning, especially because of this post:
This post has the only time Kalor even mentions Quantum aloud. Kalor talks about how LoC's and Kryptik's read lists and their similarity seem suspicious, yet he ignores almost completely that Quantum made a read list, instead opting to talk about just LoC and Kryptik. Was this to push the spotlight out of Quantum, and towards the other two? I mean, I had already pointed out that all three of them posting the super early read lists was suspicious:
So it feels weird that Kalor mostly ignored Quantum then. It's more concerning due to him not mentioning Quantum in any other of his posts at all before popping a vote on him. Scum usually likes to try to avoid making too visible connections with his scum partner.
Then there's that response Kalor put out today in regards to Sawneeks' question felt somewhat weird:
It's strange he didn't say any of those things during his initial vote, so they feel bit like "I made up these reasons afterwards". Although it could be possible that he didn't write it all out due to desktop-gaf malfunctioning at the time.
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So yeah, right now the most concerning QB voter is Kalor.
VOTE: Kalor
During post 252 vote count, QB had one vote (Bronx). Pop is the vote leader with three votes, kryptik, combine, me and Evillisk have two votes.
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Crab votes around 85 minutes before deadline:
The reasoning here is solid enough, although QB's flip doesn't really reveal if the scum team have any connection to Apple or not (Unless Maroon 5 has some connection that I'm not aware of). The vote put QB to two votes, and dropped Evillisk to one. It didn't put QB to vote leader, but definitely lot closer.
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Sawneeks votes around 40 minutes before deadline.
I agree with Saw that the vote list makers were suspicious on D1 (it was my reasoning on the QB vote too). This puts QB to 3 votes, against Pop's 3. I don't know if scum would be daring enough to push their scum member (scum tracker too) to being tied vote leader. It's possible, but feels little unlikely, which makes me feel better about Saw.
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Pop votes for QB five minutes later:
Pushing yourself out of vote leader is pretty normal. It's not very alignment indicative either, though. QB being a scum tracker means that scum would have maybe wanted to keep him alive, but even then scum Pop would have most likely had to vote on QB, because it would have looked suspicious later. Although to note, QB never voted on Pop to try to save himself either. However, I do stand by what I said yesterday, I don't really get scum vibes from Pop. His "I'm scum" claim yesterday didn't feel like a scum trying to do unnecessary gambit.
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I vote 10 minutes or so after Pop, 25 minutes before deadline:
I stand with these reasonings. QB was one of the people who posted super-early D1 reads that had everyone, based on around 2 pages of posts, 1 page if you're 100pp. Just making a list like that feels like fake contribution. The same reasoning is what makes LoC and Kryptik look bit more suspicious to me, although I don't know if multiple scum would have jumped on that same fake contribution train. I don't get scum vibes from Pop still, and Evillisk's response yesterday made me feel bit better about him.
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Kalor votes six minutes after me, 20 minutes before deadline.
Kalor's vote is a little suspicious. It feels somewhat bussy, and Kalor never even mentioned QuantumBro before voting him. It's a little concerning, especially because of this post:
This post has the only time Kalor even mentions Quantum aloud. Kalor talks about how LoC's and Kryptik's read lists and their similarity seem suspicious, yet he ignores almost completely that Quantum made a read list, instead opting to talk about just LoC and Kryptik. Was this to push the spotlight out of Quantum, and towards the other two? I mean, I had already pointed out that all three of them posting the super early read lists was suspicious:
So it feels weird that Kalor mostly ignored Quantum then. It's more concerning due to him not mentioning Quantum in any other of his posts at all before popping a vote on him. Scum usually likes to try to avoid making too visible connections with his scum partner.
Then there's that response Kalor put out today in regards to Sawneeks' question felt somewhat weird:
It's strange he didn't say any of those things during his initial vote, so they feel bit like "I made up these reasons afterwards". Although it could be possible that he didn't write it all out due to desktop-gaf malfunctioning at the time.
---
So yeah, right now the most concerning QB voter is Kalor.
VOTE: Kalor
Some notes before I go to bed:
These two posts feel little suspicious:
These two were posted between my vote and Kalor's vote. So at the time they would have assumed that the situation was 3 vs 5 votes on Pop and QB. It's not too far-fetched to think scum were waiting on the sidelines for some possibility to save QB, scum tracker is not a weak role for that side after all. Non-committing and so on. What weakens this though, is that neither of them voted on Pop, so if they were seeking to save QB, they weren't active on that.
Also I don't really scum read LoC right now, the whole claim and attack on haly today doesn't seem like something scum would do. CCS... I don't know what to think of him. His posts feel genuine, but I also feel he is coasting with the whole "I don't know what I'm doing, I'm a new player" routine he has been doing.
Anyway, it's 4.15am, so I'll head to bed.
These two posts feel little suspicious:
These two were posted between my vote and Kalor's vote. So at the time they would have assumed that the situation was 3 vs 5 votes on Pop and QB. It's not too far-fetched to think scum were waiting on the sidelines for some possibility to save QB, scum tracker is not a weak role for that side after all. Non-committing and so on. What weakens this though, is that neither of them voted on Pop, so if they were seeking to save QB, they weren't active on that.
Also I don't really scum read LoC right now, the whole claim and attack on haly today doesn't seem like something scum would do. CCS... I don't know what to think of him. His posts feel genuine, but I also feel he is coasting with the whole "I don't know what I'm doing, I'm a new player" routine he has been doing.
Anyway, it's 4.15am, so I'll head to bed.
CornBurrito
Member
The vote on Haly is half lazy, half motivated by curiosity. If Haly isnt some godfather/bulletproof it means we have one that for whatever reason targeted Haly.
Pop posted his explanation on his gambit and everything but I noticed you never commented on it. What do you think about Pop now, Corn?
Frankly I agree with Haly. Had there not been a Neutral, and a rather strong one at that, I would have agreed with the 4 Scum scenario. I highly doubt there are 2 Neutrals in this game but 3 Scum makes sense to me.
This more has to do with your previous post where you mentioned him, but what do you think about Kryptik? He was also one of the 3 reads list people you called out but you only ever gave your thoughts on LoC and not on him.
Okay, my take on the overnight posts:
I agree that Crab and Saw are now pretty strong town reads for me. It's one thing to bus a scum team mate or throw a vote at a team mate who's clearly safe on day one, but I can't see a scum team starting a pile-on onto their Tracker, especially given that (as some have said) we may well be in a game with only 3 scum.
Having said that, it's not immediately clear to me who the best next lynch is. I can certainly see the logic in Crab's argument that one of Kalor/Corn Burrito is suspicious, but I'm not sure which to go with in that scenario. Kalor's vote could look a bit bussy, but I'm not convinced that there's a weight of evidence against him. CB has been fairly innocuous (unless I've forgotten anything).
Have to get ready to go to work now, will post more later.
I agree that Crab and Saw are now pretty strong town reads for me. It's one thing to bus a scum team mate or throw a vote at a team mate who's clearly safe on day one, but I can't see a scum team starting a pile-on onto their Tracker, especially given that (as some have said) we may well be in a game with only 3 scum.
Having said that, it's not immediately clear to me who the best next lynch is. I can certainly see the logic in Crab's argument that one of Kalor/Corn Burrito is suspicious, but I'm not sure which to go with in that scenario. Kalor's vote could look a bit bussy, but I'm not convinced that there's a weight of evidence against him. CB has been fairly innocuous (unless I've forgotten anything).
Have to get ready to go to work now, will post more later.
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
Kalor (3)
Sawneeks .351
Haly .384
Burbeting .409
Haly (3)
Lord of Castamere .315
Flame_AC .386
CornBurrito .387
Not (1)
Kalor .377
Bronx-Man (1)
Pop-O-Matic .373
Flame_AC (1)
CCS .397
Lord of Castamere (1)
kryptikjoker .358
No active vote for Day 2:
Bronx-Man
Coppanuva
Crab
Evilisk
Not
Day 2 ends:
Automated vote tally here
8 votes for majority
Kalor (3)
Sawneeks .351
Haly .384
Burbeting .409
Haly (3)
Lord of Castamere .315
Flame_AC .386
CornBurrito .387
Not (1)
Kalor .377
Bronx-Man (1)
Pop-O-Matic .373
Flame_AC (1)
CCS .397
Lord of Castamere (1)
kryptikjoker .358
No active vote for Day 2:
Bronx-Man
Coppanuva
Crab
Evilisk
Not
Day 2 ends:
Automated vote tally here
8 votes for majority
I don't recall how these things work out when it comes to success/failure but we're also neglecting the possibility that LoC might've been blocked, which seems much more plausible than someone protecting me for no particular reason/RNG. Roleblocks tend to be less focused this early in the game while any Doctors/Doctor-likes would have a narrower pool of players to choose from, especially with D1's results.
I was looking for reasons as to why LoC might've gained the interest of a roleblocker and his opening posts were actually pretty bait-y.
To me, this is clearly early-game shittalking but it could've gotten someone's attention in lieu of any better choices.
How many posts do I need to make second least? 😇
I appreciate all these recap posts, I'm gonna study them tonight. I'm not great at putting all my logic out there for the world to see like so many people are expertly doing, but I'll try to make a big post with my thoughts before this day phase ends so people don't mistake my inexperience for covertness.
I'm not sure how I feel about a Haly lynch at this point. LoC's Vig shot missing isn't really alignment indicative, especially with a confirmed PR that can stop and absorb powers during the Night phase, and lynching Haly just over that would be incredibly silly. Not to mention he has contributed more this Day phase than many other players and I don't feel or see anything wrong with them. I still don't confidently town read Haly but at the moment the only thing against him is 'LoC didn't kill me' and I don't feel like that's enough of a reason to have him lynched, especially when compared to a few other players.
I also still feel like LoC is Town. Him jumping the gun and announcing one of his shots missed doesn't make any sense as a Scum gambit, especially since it put him directly into the center of discussion after we had a Day 1 Scum flip. Despite that I'll be watching him in the coming Days because while I do think that gambit is insane it's not entirely impossible. I've seen crazier.
I still want Kalor lynched today. Going off of the QB votes I think there is a bus there and Kalor's vote fits that mold. Last second and with weak reasoning he jumped over to QB to get some townie points and I frankly don't feel like his responses today have changed my mind. Burb also brings up a good point that Kalor focused on LoC/Kryptik's reads list but not really QB's list despite it being the first one. Scum ignoring their buddy?
Other than Kalor I'm not opposed to seeing Flame, Kryptik, or Not lynched today. Evilisk also fits in this list but he hasn't posted at all since Day 1 and I'm starting to feel like he might end up getting replaced so I'm willing to let that one slide until we hear from him again so we don't accidentally lynch a PR just because he wasn't here.
Flame gets my Scum Gut read of the evening. Low post count, quiet player, and is one of the 2 people this Day Phase who claimed there wasn't any new info to work with and they didn't know where to go. CCS was the other but after a bit of back-and-forth with him he gets my Town gut read of the evening, albeit a light one. He feels genuine in his comments but sometimes needs to be prodded for his actual opinions and reads, also likes to hide behind the 'I'm new i don't know what's happening!' excuse that I have seen new Scum Players use in the past. Meanwhile Flame is just sitting in the background and isn't giving much thought on the current events or trying to really, in my opinion, 'figure it out'. I think Flame has a high chance of being coasting Scum.
Kryptik gets carried over from how I felt the last Day Phase. An OMGUS vote and a Day 1 Reads List don't look great to me and nothing he has done so far, which is just a vote mind you, has changed my feeling towards him. His LoC vote also doesn't make a whole lot of sense? I'm still trying to understand what more information he want to get out of LoC by placing a vote on him.
Not is the last one. They are also clearly keeping up but haven't done much of anything so far. Either an inactive Townie or coasting Scum, there is hardly anything to look at in his post history to really give a definitive read. I won't advocate his lynch but I wouldn't be opposed to it either.
Not as strong as the others but I also don't feel great about Corn. I don't really know why but I just don't get super townie vibes from him. It's not to a point where I really think he is Scum and want him lynched but it's something I want to keep an eye on.
Everyone else I'm either Town leaning on or I'm rather neutral about but don't think they warrant a lynch.
I also still feel like LoC is Town. Him jumping the gun and announcing one of his shots missed doesn't make any sense as a Scum gambit, especially since it put him directly into the center of discussion after we had a Day 1 Scum flip. Despite that I'll be watching him in the coming Days because while I do think that gambit is insane it's not entirely impossible. I've seen crazier.
I still want Kalor lynched today. Going off of the QB votes I think there is a bus there and Kalor's vote fits that mold. Last second and with weak reasoning he jumped over to QB to get some townie points and I frankly don't feel like his responses today have changed my mind. Burb also brings up a good point that Kalor focused on LoC/Kryptik's reads list but not really QB's list despite it being the first one. Scum ignoring their buddy?
Other than Kalor I'm not opposed to seeing Flame, Kryptik, or Not lynched today. Evilisk also fits in this list but he hasn't posted at all since Day 1 and I'm starting to feel like he might end up getting replaced so I'm willing to let that one slide until we hear from him again so we don't accidentally lynch a PR just because he wasn't here.
Flame gets my Scum Gut read of the evening. Low post count, quiet player, and is one of the 2 people this Day Phase who claimed there wasn't any new info to work with and they didn't know where to go. CCS was the other but after a bit of back-and-forth with him he gets my Town gut read of the evening, albeit a light one. He feels genuine in his comments but sometimes needs to be prodded for his actual opinions and reads, also likes to hide behind the 'I'm new i don't know what's happening!' excuse that I have seen new Scum Players use in the past. Meanwhile Flame is just sitting in the background and isn't giving much thought on the current events or trying to really, in my opinion, 'figure it out'. I think Flame has a high chance of being coasting Scum.
Kryptik gets carried over from how I felt the last Day Phase. An OMGUS vote and a Day 1 Reads List don't look great to me and nothing he has done so far, which is just a vote mind you, has changed my feeling towards him. His LoC vote also doesn't make a whole lot of sense? I'm still trying to understand what more information he want to get out of LoC by placing a vote on him.
Not is the last one. They are also clearly keeping up but haven't done much of anything so far. Either an inactive Townie or coasting Scum, there is hardly anything to look at in his post history to really give a definitive read. I won't advocate his lynch but I wouldn't be opposed to it either.
Not as strong as the others but I also don't feel great about Corn. I don't really know why but I just don't get super townie vibes from him. It's not to a point where I really think he is Scum and want him lynched but it's something I want to keep an eye on.
Everyone else I'm either Town leaning on or I'm rather neutral about but don't think they warrant a lynch.
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
Awww, fuck. Sorry. I must've added a word or something and it did that thing where it turned an emoji into a generic replacement unicode character, so I took time to change it back into an emoji.
Won't happen again!
CornBurrito
Member
I found his explanation good enough to not vote for him today.
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
I assume it started as posturing to make yourself more town by attacking an obvious slip along with giving something to point at if you were ever questioned as scum. You didn't move the vote later to keep up appearances until a better option presented itself, and, when the train actually started rolling, to keep from doing anything that might draw suspicion to yourself. And nah, with how suspicious QB's slip was and how poor his defense was, I really don't think your early vote would have made a difference in his fate.
Anyway, as far as our current two leaders are concerned, I have the same opinion on Haly that I have on LoC, that we shouldn't go after Haly until we get evidence of LoC's role, so it's best to wait until tomorrow to pull the trigger on that. Kalor, on the other hand, I feel perfectly comfortable lynching for generally not contributing much beyond fluff and them seemingly jumping on the QB train at the end, which could be the action of scum jumping on the bus at the end to get townie points. Still, I'm gonna leave my vote where it is right now. Just have the gut feeling that Bronx is our man.
Also, Evilisk hasn't posted this entire day phase and hasn't even logged in since Saturday. They gonna get replaced? Modkilled?
Hm? Why move it here?
I do find fault with a bit of his play right now personally (mainly placing out a vote he admits is lazy), but also his conclusion that Haly is either BP, or one targeted him to protect him. There's plenty of other options here he neglected to call out (combine absorbing LoC's kill attempt, LoC being RB'd, etc). He's an experience player, why aren't these possibilities he's suggesting, and why try to get by with a "half-lazy" vote without considering those?
I'm bit unsure how to feel about him right now. His posts yesterdays felt genuine, even though his stance on OMGUS votes seemed pretty silly. The early read list was suspicious, but I'm not sure if multiple scum would have jumped on that early read list train.
He has been really mellow and silent today, though. But so has a lot of people, which is worrying.
Basically, my thinking is that I follow Crab's reasoning that there a good chance Kalor or CornBurrito are scum, and since Kalor already has a few votes on him I don't want to join a pile on until we've had a bit more of a discussion.
kryptikjoker
Member
I had a long reply to this, but it got deleted when I put my laptop into sleep mode. I understand the rationale for why the vote against LoC wouldn't necessarily achieve anything, since most of the information gleaned has already been covered through his posts, but still don't understand the rationale behind claiming his role so early in day 2. I'm still unsure of his alignment, and after reading further, I believe the case has been made against Kalor. Evading discussion during day 1 in regards to QBs read list and the last minute vote bussing just seems too suspect.
VOTE: Kalor
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
So, things that happened today.
First: LoC. Okay, suppose he's town, and we'll take his word. What does that mean for Haly? Well... very little. We're incredibly early on in the game. Odds are there's a doctor, or a roleblocker (we had a neutral one for a start), there may be town bulletproof, there could have been a redirector. There's about a zillion reasons why Haly may not have died. In fact, him being mafia is probably the one of the less likely ones - mafia bulletproof is not enormously common and mafia doctor is even rarer. I have no idea why LoC thought his lack-of-death was a scumtell. It doesn't seem at all credible to me, and as a town vigilante in his position, I'd have said absolutely nothing, which LoC didn't do. So he's not playing like town, or at least good town.
Now let's suppose LoC is scum. Well, what did this gain him? Could be a desperate attempt to lynch Haly after an investigation, except I think it would be obvious to almost everyone how poor the case is, so that seems not especially believable. Could be an attempt to cement himself as a town PR early on, except that doesn't really work because vigilante is one of the strongest town roles and if he's not dead shortly it would be very surprising indeed and I don't think we'd find his case credible. So I don't think he's playing like scum. Instead, I think it was just a poor decision - less than good town play.
Bronx being called out. Well, that, at least to me, seems like a public cop - they investigate a target and the result is alluded to in the night details. It's risker than a non-revealing cop because if mafia can work out the allusion, then they know who to kill to stop the cop accumulating innocent reads. Bronx's message, at least to me, reads something like that - but others have already pointed this out, so I don't think I'm breaking any secrets to mafia here. I am inclined to think of Bronx as town for now on account of this, although that depends how well this mechanic continues to accord with my future reads.
I still don't like Pop-O-Matic's posts. I'm not confident enough to want to push a lynch, but I am confident enough to take everything said with a healthy degree of skepticism.
There's a lot of coasting on to Haly's lynch. I don't have much of a read on Haly. He's quiet and not especially confrontational, but thinks through his stuff relatively clearly. I wouldn't say I find him especially towny, but so far I don't find him especially scummy, either. But very quickly, we get a wagon emerging on him - especially puzzled by CornBurrito's #387. That's just lazy if town. I don't read it as scumplay - mafia usually make an effort to explain things because they think that makes them seem towny when town can often be pretty lazy, as per this game - but I do read it as someone who might be too easily manipulated by scum and needs to step things up.
CCS is definitely coasting. Almost no original opinions and always waits for someone else to dip their toes in the water first. I'm giving due credit for being a new player here, but steadily creeping up my scum list.
It's the popular vote at the moment but I am also inclined to vote for Kalor. Always in the wagons, always gliding below the surface, suspisciously placed with respect to QB.
1 [m] Bronx-Man [town]
2 [m] Burbeting [null]
3 [m] CCS [lean scum]
5 [m] Coppanuva [null]
6 [m] CornBurrito [lean scum]
8 [m] Pop-O-Matic [lean town]
9 [m] Evilisk [null]
10 [m] Flame_AC [null]
11 [any] Haly [null]
12 [m] Kalor [scum]
13 [m] kryptikjoker [lean town]
14 [m] Lord of Castamere [town]
15 [m] Not [null]
17 [f] Sawneeks [lean town]
Most of my reads are only weakly developed at the moment, as is the norm for this early in the game, so don't take them too seriously, but this is the rough shape of my thoughts at the moment.
VOTE: Kalor
First: LoC. Okay, suppose he's town, and we'll take his word. What does that mean for Haly? Well... very little. We're incredibly early on in the game. Odds are there's a doctor, or a roleblocker (we had a neutral one for a start), there may be town bulletproof, there could have been a redirector. There's about a zillion reasons why Haly may not have died. In fact, him being mafia is probably the one of the less likely ones - mafia bulletproof is not enormously common and mafia doctor is even rarer. I have no idea why LoC thought his lack-of-death was a scumtell. It doesn't seem at all credible to me, and as a town vigilante in his position, I'd have said absolutely nothing, which LoC didn't do. So he's not playing like town, or at least good town.
Now let's suppose LoC is scum. Well, what did this gain him? Could be a desperate attempt to lynch Haly after an investigation, except I think it would be obvious to almost everyone how poor the case is, so that seems not especially believable. Could be an attempt to cement himself as a town PR early on, except that doesn't really work because vigilante is one of the strongest town roles and if he's not dead shortly it would be very surprising indeed and I don't think we'd find his case credible. So I don't think he's playing like scum. Instead, I think it was just a poor decision - less than good town play.
Bronx being called out. Well, that, at least to me, seems like a public cop - they investigate a target and the result is alluded to in the night details. It's risker than a non-revealing cop because if mafia can work out the allusion, then they know who to kill to stop the cop accumulating innocent reads. Bronx's message, at least to me, reads something like that - but others have already pointed this out, so I don't think I'm breaking any secrets to mafia here. I am inclined to think of Bronx as town for now on account of this, although that depends how well this mechanic continues to accord with my future reads.
I still don't like Pop-O-Matic's posts. I'm not confident enough to want to push a lynch, but I am confident enough to take everything said with a healthy degree of skepticism.
There's a lot of coasting on to Haly's lynch. I don't have much of a read on Haly. He's quiet and not especially confrontational, but thinks through his stuff relatively clearly. I wouldn't say I find him especially towny, but so far I don't find him especially scummy, either. But very quickly, we get a wagon emerging on him - especially puzzled by CornBurrito's #387. That's just lazy if town. I don't read it as scumplay - mafia usually make an effort to explain things because they think that makes them seem towny when town can often be pretty lazy, as per this game - but I do read it as someone who might be too easily manipulated by scum and needs to step things up.
CCS is definitely coasting. Almost no original opinions and always waits for someone else to dip their toes in the water first. I'm giving due credit for being a new player here, but steadily creeping up my scum list.
It's the popular vote at the moment but I am also inclined to vote for Kalor. Always in the wagons, always gliding below the surface, suspisciously placed with respect to QB.
1 [m] Bronx-Man [town]
2 [m] Burbeting [null]
3 [m] CCS [lean scum]
5 [m] Coppanuva [null]
6 [m] CornBurrito [lean scum]
8 [m] Pop-O-Matic [lean town]
9 [m] Evilisk [null]
10 [m] Flame_AC [null]
11 [any] Haly [null]
12 [m] Kalor [scum]
13 [m] kryptikjoker [lean town]
14 [m] Lord of Castamere [town]
15 [m] Not [null]
17 [f] Sawneeks [lean town]
Most of my reads are only weakly developed at the moment, as is the norm for this early in the game, so don't take them too seriously, but this is the rough shape of my thoughts at the moment.
VOTE: Kalor
I ignored Quantum's read list because nothing about it struck me as odd. LoC's and Combine's read list stuck out more due to being posted closer to each other and having some similarities, even if they don't mean anything.
I understand the busing argument but this isn't my first rodeo. Quantum was good as dead by the time I voted so I could have just laid my head low and waited the day out. As a result suspicion would have fallen to Burbeting instead of me since he would have been the last voter. The only reason I switched my vote in the first place to Quantum was because I didn't want the day to end with my vote on a random vote from the start of the day. Quantum was the only person who I looked that that I was willing to lynch.
I'd like to stay alive and I intend to do that but I'm prepared to Beat It.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Given how slowly town is moving, you might have to claim if you want to stay alive. Normally I'd suggest leaving it until later, but I don't know how many current voters will be around to move their votes.
I mean, I character claimed right at the start with my avatar
And obviously I'm town.
Sorry but what is this. This whole reaction seems very knee-jerk and nervous to me. Also, I don't see how being the only person to vote on 2 people is proof of alignment, or proof that you're not coasting (given that you haven't exactly backed up your votes with much reasoning).
vote: ccs
No need to be mad just because you can't recognise a QUEEEEEEEN
Agreed. I'm leaving in 20 minutes and won't be here for Day End. If you're going to claim I would suggest doing it soon.
I mean, I character claimed right at the start with my avatar
And obviously I'm town.
Although what is this?????????
Why did you claim??
Are you trying to save Kalor?
It's a joke based on the fact that my avatar has been Carly Rae Jepsen all game. Chill
As I essentially said in my last post, I am Michael Jackson, the King of Pop and... ordinary town! I was debating not revealing my exact role, let everyone think that my role was more important than it was but then I would have to deal with that tomorrow. At this point I may as well be honest than leave elements up to speculation.
Well, looks like Kalor hasn't shown up to elaborate on his partial claim and I have to leave for work. At the moment I still stand by everything I've said and I feel like Kalor bussed his teammate QB and a half-claim doesn't change what he did.
>.>
Suuure.
It's a joke based on the fact that my avatar has been Carly Rae Jepsen all game. Chill
>.>
Suuure.
haly (3)
lord of castamere 315
flame_ac 386
cornburrito 387
kalor (6)
sawneeks 351
haly 384
burbeting 409
kryptikjoker 429
crab 431
coppanuva 442
lord of castermere (0)
kryptikjoker 358 (429)
bronx-man (1)
pop-o-matic 373
not (1)
kalor 377
flame_ac (0)
ccs 397 (417)
cornburrito (1)
ccs 417
ccs (0)
coppanuva 438 (442)
DAY 2 ENDS:
lord of castamere 315
flame_ac 386
cornburrito 387
kalor (6)
sawneeks 351
haly 384
burbeting 409
kryptikjoker 429
crab 431
coppanuva 442
lord of castermere (0)
bronx-man (1)
pop-o-matic 373
not (1)
kalor 377
flame_ac (0)
cornburrito (1)
ccs 417
ccs (0)
DAY 2 ENDS:
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
...we're less than an hour from lynch and we fall off the first page?
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