PPP Super Tuesday Dem polls - Clinton leads FL & NC, DEAD HEAT(!) OH/ IL/ MO

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Southern states almost certain for Clinton FL/NC, but Sanders has a possibility of sweeping the Midwestern states OH/IL and even Missouri

3-2 to Sanders? Probably the tightest Super Tuesday by far

PPP Tweets:
Real chance if Sanders outperforms his polls the way he did in Michigan that he could sweep the Midwest tmrw:
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Clinton leads Sanders just 46/41 in Ohio and 48/45 in Illinois. Sanders leads Clinton 47/46 in Missouri:
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Sanders benefiting in Midwest from huge support from independents- 53/20 in OH, 69/18 in IL, 62/23 in MO:

Clinton still well positioned in the Southern states that vote tomorrow- up 57/32 in FL, 56/37 in NC:
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New Public Policy Polling surveys of the 5 states that will vote on Tuesday find that the Democratic contests in Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio are all toss ups, while Hillary Clinton maintains a significant advantage in Florida and North Carolina. The surveys were conducted on behalf of the VoteVets Action Fund.

Clinton leads Bernie Sanders just 46/41 in Ohio and 48/45 in Illinois, while narrowly trailing Sanders in Missouri 47/46. Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri are all open primary states and Sanders is benefiting from significant support from independent voters and a small swath of Republicans planning to vote in each state, putting him in position to potentially pull an upset sweep of the region on Tuesday night:


Clinton is better positioned in the Southern states voting on Tuesday. She leads 57/32 in Florida, and 56/37 in North Carolina. She benefits in Florida from it being a closed primary state- her lead with Democrats is comparable to what it is in the three Midwestern states voting on Tuesday but that’s the entire electorate in the Sunshine State, putting her in a strong position. In North Carolina, Clinton has already accrued a huge lead during early voting. Among those who have already cast their ballots she leads 68/29, and the race only gets closer overall because her advantage is a tighter 50/40 spread among those planning to vote on Election Day.
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...up-tuesday-clinton-still-strong-in-south.html
 
Florida: 246 delegates
Illinois: 182 delegates
Missouri: 71 delegates
North Carolina: 122 delegates
Ohio: 159 delegates
 
The horse race narrative with this one is tired. Clinton won it ages ago.

Unless she ends up going to jail this is a waste of time.
 
Wafflecakes said:
Even if Sanders goes 3-2 Hillary will grow her delegate lead.
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This. Sanders would need MASSIVE wins in the Midwest states to get any traction in delegate count. Hillary losing 3-2 tomorrow with Sanders just squeaking by in his three states is terrible news for Sanders.
 
I'm gonna start hyperventilating. It's gonna be neck and neck. Bernie just WRECKS it with independents. That might just give him the tiniest of edges.
 
The tide is turning! With the 3-2 wins, and closeness in Florida, Sanders will look like the best electoral candidate for the superdelegates!
 
PPP has been skewed toward Hillary - so Bernie is probably winning by 20 points up north and has tied things up in Florida.
 
I've never understood, what is the reason that independents and republicans can vote in a democratic primary (and vice versa)? Isn't that asking for people who would potentially like to see you do badly to pick the candidate "their" party would do best against?
 
Regardless, I think momentum is clear when Bernie was behind in IL and now he has it all tied up. That narrative coming out of tomorrow will be "Clinton frustratingly continues to lose ground to Sanders"

That'll give that impression to many upcoming voters that Sanders is the more viable candidate, delegates be damned.
 
Ashodin said:
Regardless, I think momentum is clear when Bernie was behind in IL and now he has it all tied up. That narrative coming out of tomorrow will be "Clinton frustratingly continues to lose ground to Sanders"

That'll give that impression too many upcoming voters that Sanders is the more viable candidate, delegates be damned.
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Eh. We will have to see if it pans out.

Some have suggested that Michigan spooked the pollsters and they have adjusted their sampling. I doubt it is true, but it will be interesting to see.
 
Ashodin said:
Regardless, I think momentum is clear when Bernie was behind in IL and now he has it all tied up. That narrative coming out of tomorrow will be "Clinton frustratingly continues to lose ground to Sanders"

That'll give that impression to many upcoming voters that Sanders is the more viable candidate, delegates be damned.
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But haven't polls shown that majority of voters have already decided their vote?
 
Wafflecakes said:
Eh. We will have to see if it pans out.

Some have suggested that Michigan spooked the pollsters and they have adjusted their sampling. I doubt it is true, but it will be interesting to see.
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They have, they've upweighted the number of independents in the sample.
 
Ashodin said:
The tide is turning! With the 3-2 wins, and closeness in Florida, Sanders will look like the best electoral candidate for the superdelegates!
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Sanders already requires snookers to get it to an overall tie, and frankly he'd need to get a reasonable lead to get the superdelegates to change on masse, especially after he's spent the entire campaign indirectly sticking the boot into them.
 
The Sanders wins are good for a story but unless he pushes wins in delegate rich states up into the double digits they won't allow him to catch Hillary.
 
kmag said:
Sanders already requires snookers to get it to an overall tie, and frankly he'd need to get a reasonable lead to get the superdelegates to change on masse, especially after he's spent the entire campaign indirectly sticking the boot into them.
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I agree.

Superdelegates aren't switching unless Bernie gets a pledged delegate lead.

Hillary never intended to use superdelagates to win the nomination. She went after them so hard to prevent a situation where she won the most pledged delegates, but loses due to supers.
 
zelas said:
This poll seems like bad news for Bernie. Real bad news.
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Just like Michigan, we've been hearing about the Sanders doom for ages. I personally want people in NC and Florida to really believe that Clinton is winning there by 20 points. Should make Tuesday a fun day.
 
brainchild said:
There is no way that 20% of the electorate changed their minds in 7 days. There was nothing significant enough to cause such a shift so quickly.

The weights were revised. Simple as that.
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Sorry. I must have misread your post. I thought that you were saying that the polls STILL under-weighted independents. Rather than they did in the past like with Michigan.


I am still not 100% convinced that Michigan is indicative of anything though.

The polls for the Michigan Republican primary were spot on, but those for the Democratic primary showed Hillary Clinton winning by 20 points. She lost by 1.6%. Why? The Washington Post has figured it out. Short answer: The likely voter screen was botched on account of 2008.

Long answer: It goes back to 2008. In that year, Michigan violated the rules and, like Florida, moved its primary to January. Then-chairman of the DNC, Howard Dean, announced that as punishment for violating the rules, Michigan's delegates wouldn't be seated. Barack Obama supported Dean and didn't file to be on the ballot. Hillary Clinton filed and, naturally, won although only 600,000 people voted since voters knew the results didn't matter. This year (and every year), the pollsters try to figure out who is likely to vote, the so-called "likely voter screen." One of the questions they ask is: Did you vote in the last contested Democratic primary? That was 2008 and was anomalous because the DNC said it wouldn't count. Thus the pollsters were way off in guessing who would vote.
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I still think it is possible that the polls being wrong was a one off event.

We should know this week.
 
Wafflecakes said:
Sorry. I must have misread your post. I thought that you were saying that the polls STILL under-weighted independents. Rather than they did in the past like with Michigan.


I am still not 100% convinced that Michigan is indicative of anything though.



I still think it is possible that the polls being wrong was a one off event.

We should know this week.
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Pollsters making such drastic weighted adjustments tells me that their previous polls were wrong.

The good thing is that they've corrected that since then.
 
brainchild said:
Pollsters making such drastic weighted adjustments tells me that their previous polls were wrong.

The good thing is that they've corrected that since then.
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Which is why I think it is possible (though not probable) that we could see a reverse situation this week.

We have had dozens of votes already, and the polling has been more or less accurate. I don't think the Michigan result by itself is enough to warrant a drastic change in polling methodology once we take into account mitigating factors like the 2008 primaries.
 
I could be doing it wrong, but based on the released breakdowns for Dems and Independents, and the resultant overall the weighting of Independents seems to be above 25% for both Ohio and Illinois, and over 30% for Missouri.

(I've ignored Republicans for simplicity.)

Kind of feels like pollsters are over-correcting, but we'll see.
 
Wafflecakes said:
Which is why I think it is possible (though not probable) that we could see a reverse situation this week.

We have had dozens of votes already, and the polling has been more or less accurate. I don't think the Michigan result by itself is enough to warrant a drastic change in polling methodology once we take into account mitigating factors like the 2008 primaries.
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I don't think that they're only looking at Michigan's data as a reference point to revise their methodology. They probably looked at the demographic data and tried to find a correlation between that data and Bernie Sanders, and then extrapolated independent turnout from that.

It's not foolproof, but it's data that's more recent and relevant than primary data from 4-8 years ago. They could turn out to be wrong but they're probably right, and pollsters don't like to be wrong, so I understand why they'd make adjustments and take their chances.
 
Kountry said:
I just hope he wins enough to keep going to the bitter end and costs Hillary as much money and time as possible.
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Agreed. She's already trying to pivot towards the center (Reagan HIV/AIDS compliments). Bernie staying in the race means that Hillary can't run for the general election yet, which is desirable to me as a progressive.
 
shinra-bansho said:
I could be doing it wrong, but based on the released breakdowns for Dems and Independents, and the resultant overall the weighting of Independents seems to be above 25% for both Ohio and Illinois, and over 30% for Missouri.

(I've ignored Republicans for simplicity.)

Kind of feels like pollsters are over-correcting, but we'll see.
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Yeah, looking at distributions, the democrats vote weight is roughly around 74% for OH, 72% for IL and 72% for MO. Or thereabout. Anyhow, over 25% presence for independents and republicans. I don't think there's a realistic scenario for too much increase from this.
 
If Hillary can win two big as expected and win even one one the close states I feel like she can finally start campaigning for the general against Trump.

I expect Bernie to win at least one or two states though.
 
darkwing said:
does this mean Bernie has a chance? American politics is so confusing and entertaining at the same time
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No. He needs to do much better than this to have a shot. Just tying, or just slightly winning, isn't good enough anymore

If the numbers hold out for Tuesday, Hillary would continue to grow the delegate lead, making it that much harder for Bernie to catch up. Losing Florida with that wide of a margin would wash away any other slight victory on Tuesday
 
darkwing said:
does this mean Bernie has a chance? American politics is so confusing and entertaining at the same time
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No one with half a brain thinks Bernie has a chance. This race ended a long time ago. Hillary is alm but guaranteed to win the most delegates Tuesday thanks to running up the margins in Florida.

I say this as someone who voted Bernie in Michigan. Bernie has NO chance.
 
What a crazy election season.

The Republican side is a complete shitshow, and the Democratic nomination is head-to-head between a socialist Jew and a woman.

Our founding fathers must be rolling in their graves.

Especially that asshole John Adams.
 
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