Considering CG of
today already outshines everything we've seen in the way real-time graphics from next-gen, I'm going to have to disagree.
Strongly.
Still, I think we're going to see a stronger shift to real-time (or, to be exact, pre-recorded sequences using in-game assets -- see Jade Empire, KotOR, etc for some recent examples), as the capabilities of next-gen are going to bring about much better results in this area, at least when compared to the utterly piss-poor results we've seen thus far this gen.
But really, if you think about CG from 5 years ago, and then compare it to CG of today? The difference is massive. So where does that leave us in 5 years from the start of this next generation? Oh right, with CG that outshines anything a developer can do in real-time, and probably ten times over at that... Then again, we're almost close to that point already (see: World of Warcraft's CG opening), so maybe ten times is undershooting.
Then there's, of course, the cost issues. Which do you think is more expensive? Making a CG movie that is a few minutes long, or making a real-time cutscene (with next-generation graphics) of the same length? Not only that, but which do you think is less demanding, resource and time-wise? If you say real-time, you may need to read up on the costs associated with both, and even take a glance at Oddworld Inhabitants, who are getting into full-CG productions
because they're much cheaper to make overall.
All of this stacks up to give me one thought: Why do people want CG to die? It's gorgeous, it's less demanding of resources/time/money, and it allows developers to create scenes that their game engine couldn't even hope to handle. Where is the downside? What is there to bitch about?
I just don't get it.