That's true too. A lot can change in a couple years. It's possible that PS4 could be just slightly below, match or exceed PS2 sales. Either way, it's going to be really close.
PS4 has sold over 91 million units, Spider-Man 9+ mil, PSN 90+ mil MAU (CES 2019)
- Thread starter onQ123
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Shin
Banned
MAU's are basically people that have logged in x minutes/seconds per month, every company and/or games count it like that because it's more convincing to the audience they are presenting it to.
F2P MMO's for example do it with subscribers, the actual active % of any of this is lower, far far lower. Take the last known PS+ subs vs amount of consoles sold, then of that % people need to have logged in for the month also.
People keep talking about how the PS1 was alive for years after the PS2 came out and how the PS2 was alive for years after the PS3 came out but no one is talking about the transition from PS3 to PS4.
Does anyone still remember that?
The PS3/360 sales dried up very quickly when the PS4/Xbox One came out. Lots of publishers were caught off guard how fast they were abandoned.
So, how can you guarantee that the PS4 will be alive for years after the PS5 comes out? Because of the PS2? What if its a PS3 situation? If the PS5 has backwards compatibility to PS4 then sales of PS4 could die off within the first year.
nowhat
Member
Oh yeah, having your media functions be worth anything in just a few markets (hell, not having PAL compatible HDMI passthrough despite launching in a PAL country too) when targeting a global audience sure is... a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off.
(I think we all did, and it didn't)
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
What's crazy about the 90 million MAU, those are matching Steam numbers.
Because Sony & MS wanted it to dry up & move on to PS4 & Xbox One
But with PS4 & Xbox One they are making lots of money from the services so they have more of a reason to continue to push PS4 & Xbox One even after the new consoles are released .
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I have a question about that. Does Steam have any form of paid subscription model for their members?
Shin
Banned
I'd rather be silly by not passing something as a fact until it actually becomes one and whether or not that will be the case is up to Sony.
Everyone can sling shit and see what sticks then come back years later and play the "I told you so card".
With a die shrink comes R&D costs, if it's worth it and/or feasible (because even electronics have a limitation, psychical or otherwise) then it will happen.
Current generation can't be compared to the previous ones to that extent we're in agreement, but for different reasons.
+ PS4 and PS+ can give it more legs than PS1/PS2 got and co-exists with newer hardware (like how mobile phones do)
- The requirement to play online is no longer free, in that case a person might wonder why not just upgrade as there's more good than bad
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
No, not that I am aware of.
yet_another_alt
Member
What were the end of gen prices for the PS3/360? It was still $200, wasn't it? PS4/One are at $200 now, by the time next gen rolls around we could be seeing sub $100 consoles again. A very attractive price point that was never reached by the previous gen.
ethomaz
Banned
Not everybody on these 90 million active users have Plus... perhaps half didn't have Plus.
Plus users are probably around 35-45m or a bit more because their last shared number was near a year ago.
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Redneckerz
Those long posts don't cover that red neck boy
I was more thinking along the line of UWP support, and especially now that the initial setbacks have been ironed out.
I mean...
Shin
Banned
I don't think it's even about PS+, but more about the network itself and Vita, PS3 and PS4 has access to that.
Hell a person could have just created a PSN account, auto login to check something and it would count towards that 90M.
90M sounds great and all, but the reality is usually more depressing and a lot of variables are to be considered (only quoting you, this message is more of a general response).
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The same can be said for any service and company that is tracking monthly active users. The reason it's important is because there's potentially a large percentage of 90m users that will purchase digital goods every month. Obviously the number fluctuates, but that's the potential of something like this.
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mars_terraforming
Banned
A-a. It was shared in their last Q2 report ( October 2018 ) :
https://www.vg247.com/2018/10/30/sony-q2-fy2018-ps4-sales-playstation-plus-subscribers/
34.3 mil.
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DynamiteCop!
Banned
Any idea what Microsoft's gold number is?
Shin
Banned
Yes, that's why I said in general, I'm aware of this "metric", from F2P games to Steam
The video below goes with this press release and was part of their CES 2019 presentation.
https://twinfinite.net/2019/01/ps4-ces/
Ten_Fold
Member
I can see the ps4 being $199 sometime this year or not too long before the ps5 release, it's not going to hit ps2 sales, that system was dirt cheap and didn't need anything to do with online. Still the sales will hit a bit over 100m, but I HIGHLY doubt it will hit over 155m once the ps4 is done I believe it will be done. Last thing is I'm kinda wondering what the xbox sales are this gen gonna end up like.
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mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I think the PS4 will end up at 125 million units sold.
bitbydeath
Member
Should reach that number in 2020 so will depend on how many years it goes on thereafter.
They sold over 17M in the last year alone and 2019 is looking to be no slouch in the games department either.
{insert code here}
Member
Ps4 gonna peak around 130M.
Xbone probably gets to 40M-41M.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
I believe it was 18 million last year which also made it the second highest selling year. Their initial projection was 16 and then they changed it to 17, and it still beat it.
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manfestival
Member
Single player games don't sell. Spiderman is a fluke and has the help of an IP juggernaut behind it!
ethomaz
Banned
It was not a fluke... it was just too niche.
yurinka
Member
PS2 was BC and were able to sell PS1 cheap so PS1 sales continued after PS2 release.
PS3 was BC (at the start) and were able to sell PS2 cheap so PS2 sales continued after PS3 release.
PS4 wasn't BC and weren't able do sell PS3 cheap (due to PS3 using alien tech) so PS3 sales didn't continue after PS4 release.
PS5 seems is gonna be BC and are going to be able to sell PS4 cheap (PC tech, no alien HW) so PS4 sales will continue after PS4 release.
During gen transitions BC has been important because in one side people continue playing last gen games until they don't have many next gen games, and at the same time devs keep supporting the old console for longer because they can be played on both systems so the console lives longer.
If PS5 is BC then it will become "the powerful, expensive PS" and base PS4 will be the "cheapest possible PS". The value on the cheaper console is its price so the lower, the better because it would help them approach new markets like many families that aren't let's say so rich and emerging markets.
A SKU in the middle wouldn't have a special selling point, and I don't see the point on replacing base PS4 with PS4 Pro as the cheap SKU instead of keep reducing the base PS4 price because the key point on the cheap SKU is having the lowest possible proce instead of its horsepower.
From people who would like to upgrade from PS4 in 2020 to something else will upgrade to PS5, not to PS4 Pro.
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Fake
Member
Niche-man. By resetera. Good times.
thelastword
Banned
Well, having looked at more details in the OP and reading the report......There are two striking observations...
1.) PS4 sold 5.6 million units from November 19 - December 31st 2018......Yet, for the entire month of November, PS4 sold 1.3 million units in NA, so for the period covered, NA sales are even lower in the total tally, since the first 18 days in November should net many PS4 sales for the month......So if PS4 sold 5.6 million for the period and lets say NA sold half of November's NPD in the last 12 days, we're looking at 6-700k for November in that 5.6 million.....Then based on the rumors we've heard so far for December's NPD, if PS4 is below a million, say 700-800k, then you can combine that number to the numbers covered in November and subtract it from 5.6 million....That right there tells a tale.....Say, PS4 sales for the period covered is 1.4-1.6 million in NA, then the rest of the world figures is just bonkers......
So not only is PS4 outselling the other consoles in NA, but it's pacing leagues ahead in R.O.W and that's where it's stretching PS4's lead the most......So when EA gave us console figures a year back, people were hesistant to believe, but a console like XBOX-ONE does well mostly in NA, and even then, it's been at third place most of this year there, yet it's pull in other regions is nothing to write home about and third place in NA just can't pull the installbase they seek....I guess, PS is just too powerful of a brand worldwide and the other two just can't get that level of penetration.....I still remember, even last gen, when 360 owners from Europe and in other countries apart from America, felt that NA 360 owners simply got the best of XBOX........and they felt like second class citizens...
So the point is, that worlwide PS4 sales is the real juggernaut here.....
2.) Spiderman sales are insane....Spiderman released on September the 7th and it sold over 9 million units by November the 25th, so we're talking only a couple of days of Black friday bundle deals with Spiderman...So if we include the rest of November and the entirety of December, then Spiderman should easily be tracking at 12 million by now.....That is beyond's Insomniac's wildest dreams and I have no doubt that this game will reach 20 million units when all is said and done......
Overall
Sony originally made a shipment projection of 16 million units, then 17 million, then 17.5 for the fiscal year, so I wonder what their actual shipment figure will be come March 31st 2019.....Currently, PS4 is tracking over PS2, but what's most impressive, is at the pricepoint it's accomplishing such a feat.....Even this holiday, there was no official price-drop in December and the Spiderman bundle for November BF was very much shortlived...So most of last year, we had a PS4 slim at $300.00 and a PRO at $399......Yet, in it's fifth year, it was able to pull the PS4's second highest annual numbers in 5 years on the market...If that's not impressive, then tell me what is.....?
I see even more appeal in 2019 tbh, all those third party exclusives (Judge Eyes, Remake, Project Awakening, Nioh 2, GunGrave Gore, Samurai Spirits, Prelude Rune, Left Alive)...All the good multiplat games that won't be bogged down with latency issues (RE2, DMC5, Ace Combat, Sekiro).....Exclusives like Days Gone, Lost Soul Aside, Concrete Genie, Wild, Dreams, Tsushima, Shenmue 3, TLOU2 etc.....It's going to be a very good year, because there are tonnes of games I'm looking forward to this year, perhaps more than any other.....There will just be so much variety this year....So I expect worldwide PS4 sales to grow even more.....Even more so, if there's a price drop to $249.99 around E3.....
So I really don't know why people are doubtful of PS4 reaching PS2 sales...PS4 does not need to reach $99 or $49.99 pricepoints to beat PS2.......Lots of persons who bought PS2 hardware at such low pricepoints did so to pirate games anyway and Sony did not receive much from those sales. Right now with PS4, it's a different story, PS4 hardware sales would net Sony much more as far as returns, just look at the number of persons using PSN services every month, even if only to play fortnite and buy some fortnite items, they will also see the weekly sales and purchase something else too.....More importantly, the games look amazing, even better now, the hardware does not feel dated and all exclusives look and play amazing at solid framerates....There are a tonne of persons who have not bought a console yet and 2019 is simply going to be bonkers for good games.....I say, 2019 is going to be PS4's best year as far as sales goes.....Yes, even better than 2017....
1.) PS4 sold 5.6 million units from November 19 - December 31st 2018......Yet, for the entire month of November, PS4 sold 1.3 million units in NA, so for the period covered, NA sales are even lower in the total tally, since the first 18 days in November should net many PS4 sales for the month......So if PS4 sold 5.6 million for the period and lets say NA sold half of November's NPD in the last 12 days, we're looking at 6-700k for November in that 5.6 million.....Then based on the rumors we've heard so far for December's NPD, if PS4 is below a million, say 700-800k, then you can combine that number to the numbers covered in November and subtract it from 5.6 million....That right there tells a tale.....Say, PS4 sales for the period covered is 1.4-1.6 million in NA, then the rest of the world figures is just bonkers......
So not only is PS4 outselling the other consoles in NA, but it's pacing leagues ahead in R.O.W and that's where it's stretching PS4's lead the most......So when EA gave us console figures a year back, people were hesistant to believe, but a console like XBOX-ONE does well mostly in NA, and even then, it's been at third place most of this year there, yet it's pull in other regions is nothing to write home about and third place in NA just can't pull the installbase they seek....I guess, PS is just too powerful of a brand worldwide and the other two just can't get that level of penetration.....I still remember, even last gen, when 360 owners from Europe and in other countries apart from America, felt that NA 360 owners simply got the best of XBOX........and they felt like second class citizens...
So the point is, that worlwide PS4 sales is the real juggernaut here.....
2.) Spiderman sales are insane....Spiderman released on September the 7th and it sold over 9 million units by November the 25th, so we're talking only a couple of days of Black friday bundle deals with Spiderman...So if we include the rest of November and the entirety of December, then Spiderman should easily be tracking at 12 million by now.....That is beyond's Insomniac's wildest dreams and I have no doubt that this game will reach 20 million units when all is said and done......
Overall
Sony originally made a shipment projection of 16 million units, then 17 million, then 17.5 for the fiscal year, so I wonder what their actual shipment figure will be come March 31st 2019.....Currently, PS4 is tracking over PS2, but what's most impressive, is at the pricepoint it's accomplishing such a feat.....Even this holiday, there was no official price-drop in December and the Spiderman bundle for November BF was very much shortlived...So most of last year, we had a PS4 slim at $300.00 and a PRO at $399......Yet, in it's fifth year, it was able to pull the PS4's second highest annual numbers in 5 years on the market...If that's not impressive, then tell me what is.....?
I see even more appeal in 2019 tbh, all those third party exclusives (Judge Eyes, Remake, Project Awakening, Nioh 2, GunGrave Gore, Samurai Spirits, Prelude Rune, Left Alive)...All the good multiplat games that won't be bogged down with latency issues (RE2, DMC5, Ace Combat, Sekiro).....Exclusives like Days Gone, Lost Soul Aside, Concrete Genie, Wild, Dreams, Tsushima, Shenmue 3, TLOU2 etc.....It's going to be a very good year, because there are tonnes of games I'm looking forward to this year, perhaps more than any other.....There will just be so much variety this year....So I expect worldwide PS4 sales to grow even more.....Even more so, if there's a price drop to $249.99 around E3.....
So I really don't know why people are doubtful of PS4 reaching PS2 sales...PS4 does not need to reach $99 or $49.99 pricepoints to beat PS2.......Lots of persons who bought PS2 hardware at such low pricepoints did so to pirate games anyway and Sony did not receive much from those sales. Right now with PS4, it's a different story, PS4 hardware sales would net Sony much more as far as returns, just look at the number of persons using PSN services every month, even if only to play fortnite and buy some fortnite items, they will also see the weekly sales and purchase something else too.....More importantly, the games look amazing, even better now, the hardware does not feel dated and all exclusives look and play amazing at solid framerates....There are a tonne of persons who have not bought a console yet and 2019 is simply going to be bonkers for good games.....I say, 2019 is going to be PS4's best year as far as sales goes.....Yes, even better than 2017....
lol are you serious, or is this a joke post? best place to play games? Really?
let's see... BC? no, just some shitty remasters, where we have to pay again. Ea Access? No. Something like Game Pass? No. PS now is a pile of shit. Performance and Graphics? Nope, X is way better and offers native 4K, not this bullshit fake 4K.
strong lineup? debatable. E.g. I didnt like spider-man, was a very repetitive and boring open world game, especially when you compare it to e.g. zelda botw its a boring game.
Also, if you really play all the exclusive games AFTER the hype, it get's pretty clear that most of them a extremely overhyped, that's why its so damn undeserved.
mejin
Member
If Japan was still in their prime and PS4 could reach dat $100 price point I have no doubt PS2 would be surpassed easily. It's not the case, so a safe bet would be a number between 125 and 135M for PS4 LTD. At least 16M this year, another 12M in 2020, 8M in 2021, 4/5M in 2022, etc till the end of production (unless sony kill it too fast or sacrifice units for revenue, for example).
They have big games to make great bundles for this and next year and there is always worldwide numbers to support a clean transition.
They have big games to make great bundles for this and next year and there is always worldwide numbers to support a clean transition.
Blood Borne
Member
This is good news.
I know this is going to sound fanboyish but PlayStation dominating is best for the industry. This is because Microsoft and Nintendo mostly have national appeal, hence developers worry about the reach of their games, but PlayStation doesn't have such issue due to global appeal. PS3 fuck ups really caused distraught for developers, particularly Japanese developers.
I know this is going to sound fanboyish but PlayStation dominating is best for the industry. This is because Microsoft and Nintendo mostly have national appeal, hence developers worry about the reach of their games, but PlayStation doesn't have such issue due to global appeal. PS3 fuck ups really caused distraught for developers, particularly Japanese developers.
ethomaz
Banned
Cut the bullshit... you don't need to make excuses... you buy system to play actual games not BC, EA Access or Gamepass.
So yes... it is the best place to play games this gen.
Games at the end is what matter for a gaming platform... and you see that in the numbers like this thread shows to you... seems like you have the odd hate here.
PS4 success since beginning was all about games... the truth is Sony build the thrust with PS3 after delivery strong line up at end of the gen... that is happening again with PS4... the PlayStation platform you you can be sure it will delivery with games.... now if you like to play promises.
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mars_terraforming
Banned
In case you didn't know, BC on X1 isn't free if you don't own a X360 game. PS Now ( outside some tech limitations ) works quite well. Also PS4 Pro offers native 4k games too. Of course, not in same amount like X.
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mejin
Member
It's not Sony who's always trying to catch up with MS, it's the opposite. All MS acquisitions is MS doing that.
The greatest advantage of Sony over MS is Sony WWS. It'll take a lot of time, money and effort, but MS can be a real contender for playstation. But always remember, Sony won't be still.
The greatest advantage of Sony over MS is Sony WWS. It'll take a lot of time, money and effort, but MS can be a real contender for playstation. But always remember, Sony won't be still.
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ethomaz
Banned
While Sony really had a great start with PS4 against the competition (added the fact MS screwed big) I believe the Sony consoles shows the true face or kill the competition after the 3rd year to the end of the generation.
The mid to end of the generation is when Sony really kills the competition with strong software support while the competition doesn't have more breath to follow and start to focus on the next generation.
The hype for Sony's consoles only increase over the cycle of the generation... and that helps a lot to migrate to the next one.
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mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I'm struggling with what Sony should do in 2020 with the PS4 and PS4 Pro after the PS5 is released. I do agree with you that it's just stupid to have all 3 on the market at the same time. JUST STUPID! So which one do you phase out? You reasoning is great. But I also wonder what's the fall price that a PS4 or PS4 Pro can sell for before it cuts into profit margins? Like is $180 the minimum they can charge? Because if so that means the lowest a PS4 will ever be in $199 with one or two games.
They can make PS4 into a hybrid that can be hooked to your TV or became a portable wearable device for VR & normal gaming on a HMD.
The CPU is already mobile & AMD new mobile APU isn't far off from PS4 in power 1.79TF vs 1.84TF
https://www.notebookcheck.net/AMD-Ryzen-7-3750H-Processor.391021.0.html
Trogdor1123
Member
Same, I have no desire to buy a new system right at launch this gen. I'm going to take a wait and see approach. Hopefully will get a good bundle that way. Might wait for a mid gen refresh.
best lineup of the generation, fact. Now you can continue to play x-boredom with dumb simple games for children like sea of thieves and crackdown.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
You will want a PS5 when you see those first gen games that aren't being released on the PS4. And then you realize that TLOU2 and Death Stranding run at 60 fps at 4K pure on the PS5 lol.
Trogdor1123
Member
I used to be think that too but honestly I doubt it this time. It's never happened to me before but backwards compatibility is my number 1 concern. All the previous gens (all the way back to SNES from best) it never mattered.
I'm at the point where games are "good enough". I'm not quite sure how to put it in words. If there is BC and it does stuff like how the x does, but better? I might be in day 1.
Not interested in tlou2 or death standing at this time. The tlou was really good too, not sure why.
Dammit now I want to replay it!
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Jigsaah
Gold Member
If Sony lowers ps4 pro to 299, it's an insta-buy for me. I'm happy with the base ps4 for now.
ethomaz
Banned
I'm the opposite.
I can't hold backlog if I wait to buy a new console... so I always try to buy it at day one so I can follow the releases without have issues with time due backlog to play them.
I discard all backlog from old systems when I buy a new console too.
It is like a new gaming life
NickFire
Member
With 91 million sold already, I think your hopes are guaranteed to come to fruition.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I'm guessing that's what the PS5 will be doing. BC like the X1X but better.
DunDunDunpachi
Banned
A lot of smaller vendors (most recently, Warned Collectors in France) are picking up the slack for publishing physical copies of very small indie titles. Dreamcast continued to get strong indie support many years after it vanished from retail shelves and I'm expecting a similar situation on the Switch and PS4, as long as Sony and Nintendo continue to allocate discs/carts for these vendors.
Exciting times. Brings me back to the days of limited mail-order games.
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Jigsaah
Gold Member
I'm the opposite.
I can't hold backlog if I wait to buy a new console... so I always try to buy it at day one so I can follow the releases without have issues with time due backlog to play them.
I discard all backlog from old systems when I buy a new console too.
It is like a new gaming life
Well with remasters you can always go back to at least some of the oldies. I didn't finish DMC until it came out on Xbox One X. Took me a while to get around to it, but hey...I finished it. I got the Last of US PS4 bundle but I had already finished it on PS3, but because it was remastered i considered it in my backlog. Sadly have not gone back to it. I think I will once the sequel is about a month away.
