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[Escape Goat]

Pretty scary that an asteroid snuck up on us. Scarier that we couldn't even tell how big it was until it buzzed Earth. Also, deep impact reference goes here.

The bad news about the asteroid 2012 LZ1, which zipped past Earth last week, is that it's actually twice as wide and a lot deadlier than we thought — a kilometer (0.6 miles) wide in its largest dimension, rather than 500 meters. The good news is that we have at least seven centuries to figure out how to fight that particular space rock.

That's the verdict from astronomers using the 1,000-foot-wide (300-meter-wide) Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico, the world's biggest single radio dish.

"The sensitivity of our radar has permitted us to measure this asteroid's properties and determine that it will not impact the earth at least in the next 750 years," Mike Nolan, the observatory's director of planetary radar sciences, said in a news release issued today.

Another Arecibo researcher, Ellen Howell, was quoted as saying "this object turned out to be quite a bit bigger than we expected, which shows how important radar observations can be, because we're still learning a lot about the population of asteroids."

As anyone who's seen the movie "Deep Impact" already knows, a kilometer-wide space rock is considered big enough to set off an extinction-level event if it were to hit Earth. Until this month, 2012 LZ1 was among the estimated 10 percent of potentially threatening asteroids of that size that have yet to be detected. (A collision with 500-meter-wide asteroid would rank as a horrible catastrophe, but experts don't think it would kill off civilization.)

2012 LZ1 was discovered on June 10 at Siding Spring Observatory in Australia, and came within 14 Earth-moon distances (3.3 million miles, or 5.3 million kilometers) during its closest approach a week ago. There was zero risk of collision this time around, but the fact that astronomers had so little advance warning of LZ1's approach was just a bit, um, worrisome.

The big challenge for observing this asteroid appears to have been that it was unusually dark. That's why previous estimates of its size were so far off: Without precise observations of the object's shape, astronomers base their size estimates on the relative brightness of an asteroid at a given distance.

The Arecibo Observatory is well-suited for making radar observations of passing asteroids by reflecting radio signals off their surfaces — and the radar image of 2012 LZ1, captured on Tuesday, was good enough to show the object's shape and size. From that, scientists determined that the rock reflected only 2 to 4 percent of the light striking the surface. That suggests that the asteroid was as black or even blacker than charcoal.

The case of the big black asteroid serves as another reason why it's a good thing that the B612 Foundation is planning to put up a privately funded space telescope to look for such rocks. More details about the Sentinel Space Telescope are due to come out in a week.

 

[echoshifting]

Viral asteroid

 

[Woorloog]

Too bad this won't scare goverments to acclerate space programs and other space technology and asteroid tracking. The better base we have in space, the better chance we have to implement asteroid shields, should those become necessary. Sure, the chances on one hitting on Earth are astronomical but as long as all our eggs are in one basket, better be safe than sorry.

EDIT WAIT WHAT? Snuck up on us? Last week? Damn... Did we know about the thing before it went past us?

 

[Kettch]

Too bad this won't scare goverments to acclerate space programs and other space technology and asteroid tracking. The better base we have in space, the better chance we have to implement asteroid shields, should those become necessary. Sure, the chances on one hitting on Earth are astronomical but as long as all our eggs are in one basket, better be safe than sorry.

EDIT WAIT WHAT? Snuck up on us? Last week? Damn...

We had 3 days warning from its discovery to going passed us.

It really should scare governments considering that. And just as bad is the completely inaccurate reading of its size, which likely would have screwed up any last minute deflection effort if it had been on target.

 

[Woorloog]

We had 3 days warning from its discovery to going passed us.

It really should scare governments considering that. And just as bad is the completely inaccurate reading of its size, which likely would have screwed up any last minute deflection effort if it had been on target.

3 days?
Can the US please swap NASA's and their military's budgets...

 

[XMonkey]

Ya this should really be a high priority for all space agencies.

 

[FyreWulff]

I remember some statistic out there that we're only actively monitoring 3% of the total sky.

It's just so damn big.

 

[Betta Lines]

 

[Woorloog]

I remember some statistic out there that we're only actively monitoring 3% of the total sky.

It's just so damn big.

Yeah, just 3%. We need a telescope network on Earth's orbit that look for asteroids specifically.
Prevents aliens on sneaking up on us too.

 

[Escape Goat]

Yeah, just 3%. We need a telescope network on Earth's orbit that look for asteroids specifically.
Prevents aliens on sneaking up on us too.

What about their cloaking devices?

 

[Bisnic]

It's kinda scary to think we're at the mercy of whatever the universe wants to throw at us. Hopefully, the really dangerous one that will hit Earth is very far away and by that time, we will have anti-asteroid nukes.

 

[Tideas]

3 days?
Can the US please swap NASA's and their military's budgets...

or can Europe swap their social welfare budget with their space program budget?

 

[Woorloog]

What about their cloaking devices?

Well, then we can't do a shit.

Of course them sneaking on us is a not really possible in the first place, considering you can detect the Space Shuttle's attitude thrusters from the asteroid belt (main engines from Pluto)... Any interstellar engine is visible to very, very far away.

Unless they have the aforementioned cloaking devices.
But we can stop any alien invasion if we know where the asteroids are, then we can drop one of them on the aliens...

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

What about their cloaking devices?

Search in infrared. Gotta have a tailpipe.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

Yeah, just 3%. We need a telescope network on Earth's orbit that look for asteroids specifically.
Prevents aliens on sneaking up on us too.

that would probably cost billions of dollars. I'd rather spend that cash on permanently colonizing another planet
of course we won't ever do either

 

[Yagharek]

Humbling thought that one of these could be discovered only a week or two out from a direct hit. And that's if we're lucky enough to spot it in time.

 

[XMonkey]

or can Europe swap their social welfare budget with their space program budget?

Why would you want to do that when there's a perfectly good defense budget to take from? This is after all, the greatest defense we'll ever need.

 

[echoshifting]

It's kinda scary to think we're at the mercy of whatever the universe wants to throw at us. Hopefully, the really dangerous one that will hit Earth is very far away and by that time, we will have anti-asteroid nukes.

There is so much wildly terrifying shit the universe can throw at us that it really isn't worth getting too worried about unless you are trying to intentionally go crazy.

 

[Jarmel]

The way that scientist mentions the 750 year implies when it comes back, it's going to hit us.

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

that would probably cost billions of dollars. I'd rather spend that cash on permanently colonizing another planet

Permanent colonization of a celestial body is a long-term thing, building a telescope network is a short-term thing. They aren't mutually exclusive, and the former is going to cost a lot more than the latter.

 

[Woorloog]

that would probably cost billions of dollars. I'd rather spend that cash on permanently colonizing another planet
of course we won't ever do either

Yeah, well, it probably would cost a lot less than finding and terraforming a planet to be suitable for humankind. Besides, that planet needs to protected from asteroids too (or other threats).

 

[echoshifting]

The way that scientist mentions the 750 year implies when it comes back, it's going to hit us.

That's the first time it has even a remote chance of hitting us.

 

[Tideas]

Why would you want to do that when there's a perfectly good defense budget to take from? This is after all, the greatest defense we'll ever need.

is there? i dunno. I assume Europe's defense is smaller than its social benefit spending.

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

is there? i dunno. I assume Europe's defense is smaller than its social benefit spending.

ignorant rich american who cannot figure out how google works

 

[XMonkey]

is there? i dunno. I assume Europe's defense is smaller than its social benefit spending.

I'm positive their defense spending is far more than their space spending. Which is my whole point.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

I'm positive their defense spending is far more than their space spending. Which is my whole point.

god only knows why, its not like they are ever going to need to use any of it

 

[Woorloog]

god only knows why, its not like they are ever going to need to use any of it

Yeah, i don't see what's the point of defense budgets. It's not like anyone is going to attact Europe, unless they're suiciddal and want to wreck world economy, including theirs. And conventional armies are no good tealing with terrorism really.
I'd gladly move any European defense funding to space programs.
Just that NASA alone could do a lot if given budget equivalent to US military budget... and US could get to be a hero once again ("saved the world from asteroids", now that'd be good positive PR).
EDIT somehow i doubt ESA could manage that even with the same funding, everyone here wants things done their way...

 

[echoshifting]

... and US could get to be a hero once again ("saved the world from asteroids", now that'd be good positive PR).

Get your own asteroid shield, world!

 

[XMonkey]

god only knows why, its not like they are ever going to need to use any of it

They need all of that money?

 

[astroturfing]

how could a space rock end civilization? surely God would stop the rock, or else there would be no point for Jesus to return. right?

 

[ElectricBlue187]

Yeah, i don't see what's the point of defense budgets. It's not like anyone is going to attact Europe, unless they're suiciddal and want to wreck world economy, including theirs. And conventional armies are no good tealing with terrorism really.
I'd gladly move any European defense funding to space programs.
Just that NASA alone could do a lot if given budget equivalent to US military budget... and US could get to be a hero once again ("saved the world from asteroids", now that'd be good positive PR).
EDIT somehow i doubt ESA could manage that even with the same funding, everyone here wants things done their way...

the reason why Europe doesn't need a lot of defense is mostly because the US would lay the smack down if anyone attacked them, same goes with Japan, Korea, Australia, etc so in that speculative future the US defense would have to remain high but their allies defense budgets are pretty superfluous

how could a space rock end civilization? surely God would stop the rock, or else there would be no point for Jesus to return. right?

Jesus is surfing on top of the space rock

 

[gofreak]

Has asteroid monitoring gotten any better in the last few years?

I remember reading Bill Bryson saying that there was no guarantee at all that we'd spot an asteroid before it was looming down on earth. There's a good chance the first notice we'd have would when it was seconds from impact.

The most hopeful scenario might be six months or so notice. Which wouldn't be nearly enough to do anything, and we would be uncertain up until the last couple of weeks as to whether it would actually impact or not.

Has it gotten any better?

 

[Woorloog]

how could a space rock end civilization? surely God would stop the rock, or else there would be no point for Jesus to return. right?

The nature is indifferent towards humans and their gods.

 

[Bisnic]

The nature is indifferent towards humans and their gods.

Not really, the reason why the asteroid didnt hit Earth is simple :

Asteroid : "Yo Earth, im coming to kill all humans."
Gods: "Stay away, this planet is ours!"
Asteroid : "okmeme.jpg"

 

[echoshifting]

Has asteroid monitoring gotten any better in the last few years?

I remember reading Bill Bryson saying that there was no guarantee at all that we'd spot an asteroid before it was looming down on earth. There's a good chance the first notice we'd have would when it was seconds from impact.

The most hopeful scenario might be six months or so notice. Which wouldn't be nearly enough to do anything, and we would be uncertain up until the last couple of weeks as to whether it would actually impact or not.

Has it gotten any better?

Not sure when Bill Bryson wrote that but I found this 2010 CS Monitor article suggesting improvements.

Wednesday's objects were much smaller than even those asteroids, and yet they were picked up three days before their fly-by. Although the telescopes and detectors were built to spot much larger objects, they also are proving adept at picking out smaller asteroids.

These survey telescopes "are likely to catch a much larger fraction of objects that could hit Earth than people originally thought," says Clark Chapman, an asteroid specialist at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colo.

 

[keyboardcat]

wait, so it's not bigger than Texas?

 

[gofreak]

Not sure when Bill Bryson wrote that but I found this 2010 CS Monitor article suggesting improvements.

I think he wrote about it around 2001 or so.

Sounds like there's been some improvements but still no completely comprehensive detection solution.

 

[Bisnic]

wait, so it's not bigger than Texas?

If a 1km asteroid can kill off all civilization, something as big as Texas would just destroy the whole planet.

 

[SquiddyCracker]

Is there really any point in monitoring asteroids if we don't even have the capability to deflect them?
Seems like it would be better to just live our few last days without mass panic, unaware of the 1km asteroid that's about to crush us all.

Now, if we coupled a monitoring network with some serious deflection strategies and technologies, then I could see a case being made for that.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

how would we even know if a huge asteroid hit russia or something? There would be nobody left to tell us

 

[teruterubozu]

Neil DeGrasse Tyson said it would take decades for the earth to mobilize financially, politically and scientifically to intercept a major impact. Basically he says we're fucked.

 

[Tawpgun]

Neil DeGrasse Tyson said it would take decades for the earth to mobilize financially, politically and scientifically to intercept a major impact. Basically he says we're fucked.

If they really calculated an asteroid would hit us in five years... a planet killer... you would think people would do away with money and politics to fight the damn thing....

 

[teruterubozu]

If they really calculated an asteroid would hit us in five years... a planet killer... you would think people would do away with money and politics to fight the damn thing....

We can't even get people to agree on global warming so....
I can just see it - "Impact Deniers"

 

[Smokey]

wait, so it's not bigger than Texas?

wat

an asteroid the size of texas would probably split the planet in half yo

 

[echoshifting]

We can't even get people to agree on global warming so....
I can just see it - "Impact Deniers"

Horrifying 'cause it's probably true

wat

an asteroid the size of texas would probably split the planet in half yo

It would definitely jack up the crust, but probably not the core. Mars survived a Texas-sized asteroid...sorta.

 

[astroturfing]

Neil DeGrasse Tyson said it would take decades for the earth to mobilize financially, politically and scientifically to intercept an impact. Basically, he says we're fucked.

well, a Tunguska magnitude event happens only like once every 100-200 years or so (and doesn't destroy everything), and larger impacts are even rarer... so decades or even centuries or millenia are probably more than enough to come up with a plan to defend against an extinction level event type of impact.

another Tunguska might happen before we have any defenses though (we're getting kinda due for one).. and if it hits a populated area, it will be a massive catastrophe. or hits the ocean which is very likely... gigantic tsunamis everywhere :E

We can't even get people to agree on global warming so....
I can just see it - "Impact Deniers"

yep. i've asked many people what they think of potential asteroid/comet impacts... some say it's just silly to even think about, some say God would stop it (even here on GAF) etc. it's a frightening possibility (or inevitability rather), so a lot of people basically want to bury their head in the sand.

 

[ReBurn]

The way that scientist mentions the 750 year implies when it comes back, it's going to hit us.

Since it's twice as big as they thought I bet that they got this wrong and it will be back in half the time.

 

[teruterubozu]

well, a Tunguska magnitude event happens only like once every 100-200 years or so (and doesn't destroy everything), and larger impacts are even rarer... so decades or even centuries or millenia are probably more than enough to come up with a plan to defend against an extinction level event type of impact.

another Tunguska might happen before we have any defenses though (we're getting kinda due for one).. and if it hits a populated area, it will be a massive catastrophe. or hits the ocean which is very likely... gigantic tsunamis everywhere :E

I guess it depends on your faith in humanity. I guess Tyson has little.

 

[RangersFan]

Harry Stamper? Drill 800 feet deep on the fault line?

 

[ReBurn]

well, a Tunguska magnitude event happens only like once every 100-200 years or so (and doesn't destroy everything), and larger impacts are even rarer... so decades or even centuries or millenia are probably more than enough to come up with a plan to defend against an extinction level event type of impact.

If only Reagan had built Star Wars.