The easy answer is both are scum.I mean you can assign a confidence value on how strong you think the chance one of them is scum is. That can be used to influence whether fat or zee is your preferred lynch if we can only pick among the two.
The vote swings from the end of the day don't make sense to me with a scum!fat. I just don't buy Splinters position of keeping zee around as a distraction when it puts scum fat in a more precarious spot. Can someone make a case for why the vote movement does make sense for scum fat?
Uh... If you say so.Sure you don't know. To spell it out I am saying looking at your and zeusy's posts they read exactly like how an experienced and inexperienced player would interact together as scum.
You trying to shepherd and protect him and zeusy being far too wary to even really acknowledge you in the thread.
I would say the same argument wouldn't apply because fat was never several votes ahead of kalor (the closest it gets is at 4:52 when ouro votes fat right as sorian votes kalor in the post after making it 4fat/4zee/3kalor). Whereas at 4:40 zee is 2 votes ahead of any one else with 4 votes. Fat was never a dominant obvious wagon against the field the way zee felt going into the last 20 minutes.So wouldn't a similar argument apply to Zee being scum too? Why start a Kalor bandwagon when the Fat bandwagon was already there. The only wrinkle would be if both Fat and Zee are scum, which is why a 3rd wagon was needed.
The easy answer is both are scum.
Alternative answer is that scum felt Fat v Zee was riskier than starting a new wagon on Kalor (which would suggest the two votes already on Kalor were from townies). I don't think there had been a "new" vote on Zee for a while, unless I'm misremembering.
Uh... If you say so.
I don't know if this is insane tunneling or grasping at straws to discredit me.
Hey that could happen on random votes alone. I'd like to think we aren't that much worse than random.So if Fat is scum then either zee is as well or one of the votes on zee that went to kalor are scum? (And I don't believe for a second we had scum v scum wagon going day 2 lol)
Uh... If you say so.
I don't know if this is insane tunneling or grasping at straws to discredit me.
I would say the same argument wouldn't apply because fat was never several votes ahead of kalor (the closest it gets is at 4:52 when ouro votes fat right as sorian votes kalor in the post after making it 4fat/4zee/3kalor). Whereas at 4:40 zee is 2 votes ahead of any one else with 4 votes. Fat was never a dominant obvious wagon against the field the way zee felt going into the last 20 minutes.
WE WILL TAKE ALL THE STROKES OFF SPLINTERS GOLF GAME WHEN WE FLIP HIMI do say so and we will know more when we flip zeusy
Hmm, you're right. If Zee is scum then both Fat and Kalor would have looked like valid bandwagon alternatives for the scum team. I also find it highly unlikely that both Fat and Zee are scum considering they were both mostly based on gut reads.
So to me it's most likely that either Zeemumu is scum or that both Zeemumu and Fat are town.
Vote: Zeemumu
It was the point of the entire conversation me and him just had.Wait, how did you arrive at the bolded? Just process of elimination?
It was the point of the entire conversation me and him just had.
Well I don't listen to your podcast!I've literally been ignoring you all game
But it lost steam to give steam to kalors bandwagon which emerged from no where. Also the entirety of the lost steam was from you just throwing votes around to create a "race". So I don't like this post duders.Anyway, while I highly doubt that both fat and zee are scum, based on the swing to Kalor I would not be surpised if one of them is. I doubt scum wasn't involved in the swing in some fashion, and considering Fat's train was the one that lost steam, I'm thinking that's where the scum is
Well I don't listen to your podcast!
See we can both say hurtful things
Ouro has a podcast?
But it lost steam to give steam to kalors bandwagon which emerged from no where. Also the entirety of the lost steam was from you just throwing votes around to create a "race". So I don't like this post duders.
My point was that if the wagon on fat was scary because he was scum, you prop up the zee wagon which is healthily ahead coming into the final 20 minutes, I don't see the justification for making the push on kalor when it's riskier....yes? That's what I said.
And I moved my vote twice. That's it. I was on zee most of the day except for my little stint with Penguin and Bronx, and moved to Fat because I wanted that to be the race. Then the Kalor train picked up steam so I moved back to zee since fat's was going away. That's hardly a bunch of me messing about.
Town can and will be wrong overwhelming in mafia. These are always weak arguments to me.For all you thinking Kalor was bullshit and fat is town. Well zeusy was on Kalor on day 2 and is on Fat today.
My point was that if the wagon on fat was scary because he was scum, you prop up the zee wagon which is healthily ahead coming into the final 20 minutes, I don't see the justification for making the push on kalor when it's riskier.
I propped up the zee vote at the end because he was my choice over kalor. That's basically it, other than that if people really wanted kalor gone, someone would have to push it higher than zee's votes.
Right I don't really give a shit about your vote on zee. I was more responding to your point about fat looking bad because of the swing and the votes moving away from him on days end. The point of the conversation was if fat is scum, and zee is not, I do not see how you can look at the votes in the last 20 minutes and say pushing kalor over zee as the other wagon makes sense. If your goal is protecting fat (which is your proposition for why the votes makes fat look bad) then zeemumu is the natural choice not kalor.I propped up the zee vote at the end because he was my choice over kalor. That's basically it, other than that if people really wanted kalor gone, someone would have to push it higher than zee's votes.
Town can and will be wrong overwhelming in mafia. These are always weak arguments to me.
...yes? That's what I said.
And I moved my vote twice. That's it. I was on zee most of the day except for my little stint with Penguin and Bronx, and moved to Fat because I wanted that to be the race. Then the Kalor train picked up steam so I moved back to zee since fat's was going away. That's hardly a bunch of me messing about.
I think someone wants attention drawn on me while they off people in the background and you're making it worse by buying into it.
Right I don't really give a shit about your vote on zee. I was more responding to your point about fat looking bad because of the swing and the votes moving away from him on days end. The point of the conversation was if fat is scum, and zee is not, I do not see how you can look at the votes in the last 20 minutes and say pushing kalor over zee as the other wagon makes sense. If your goal is protecting fat (which is your proposition for why the votes makes fat look bad) then zeemumu is the natural choice not kalor.
Ouros actually voting fat for now. I'm arguing that of the two of you from days end yesterday, if the votes implicate either it implicates you. But I don't think your scum. I just would like the people voting fat to explain where I'm messing up in my logic, or to vote you if the day end voting is their only bone to pick.I think someone wants attention drawn on me while they off people in the background and you're making it worse by buying into it.
It's not your vote, it's your topic of discussionHuh? My vote isn't on you, I want to see fat's flip. If you're town then I was simply wrong about you on D1. If you're scum then I can always come back to you later.
My issue with the theory of me being scum and then losing steam right at the end of the day because they of the Kalor push, that reads to me as if Scum had votes parked on me artificially and had no reason to change their votes to Kalor. If Scum had votes parked on me, I would of had nothing to worry about as the Scum would of likely just of changed their vote to Zee instead at the end of the day. The Kalor push would likely make more sense if both me and Zee are scum, but in reality it seems like it was just more of a lark vote. People wanted to jump to on a train and not stay on a vote they didnt really believe were scum.
Not even, this is based on assuming scum would be panicking enough to shuffle votes to protect a member (an assumption shared between both our processes) and picking a wagon that looks the surest to protect a teammate. That's not optimal play it's a pretty basic line of thought.Huh? My vote isn't on you, I want to see fat's flip. If you're town then I was simply wrong about you on D1. If you're scum then I can always come back to you later.
You're doing that thing where you assume people are making optimal choices
I'm happy to see your do know how to vote before timer expiresvote: penguin
Does your confidence in this change dependent on fats flip?
Wizard, maybe
I'm happy to see your do know how to vote before timer expires
It's higher if he flips scum, I'll grant you that. If he flips scum (and, I guess if he flips goon or something with less utility than the other scum), I'd expect a bus somewhere early on. That seems pretty typical.
If he's town, my confidence is lower, but I can see a scenario where scum does that thing where they just stay out of the end-of-day shenanigans.
But again these are a lot of what-ifs so...shrug
It is a lot of what-ifs, under that line of thinking it would mean the Kalor push was lead/pushed late by Town, and maybe slightly pursued or agitated by Scum.
Yeah? It was D1, I expect town to be dumb and only slightly less dumb as the game progresses. I'm sure town probably started the kalor train and then scum jumped on. Maybe not all of them, but like one or two of them.
Alright I've slacked off enough at work, I've gotta actually be productive for a while. Should be able to get back in before days end.
Interesting position there though ouro. I'm more keen to focus on zeemumu voters in he case of fat being scum, but those votes boil down to 3 conftown, me, you and penguin. So I guess if fat flips scum I'd be feeling pretty decent on penguin being scum.
You always get so defensive when we question your motives
What I mean is, if it was Town pushed so late into the day, it seems more like Scum was already OK with the way the day was going at that point.
Day 2 my dude.Yeah? It was D1, I expect town to be dumb and only slightly less dumb as the game progresses. I'm sure town probably started the kalor train and then scum jumped on. Maybe not all of them, but like one or two of them.
Day 2 my dude.
See now I can't question this without being seen as defensive, but when have I done this?
I mean you've been my only target today and been fairly consistent in saying that I doubt your end of day play on Day 2.
Also looking at the votes, to provide more weight to the zeemumu being scum between fat and zee, the push on kalor over fat makes more sense when we see that kalor is already voting on zee before all this shit begins. You push kalor as the other bandwagon and he doesn't have a free vote to push for survival, it's already on zee. You push fat and he's not tied up and becomes another vote for zeemumu late if it's a close race. Okay now seriously doing work.