Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

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kurisu_1974 said:
Guys I was being super sarcastic.
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qyMWGcy.png
 
FunkMiller said:
I'll let the other dude posit his own answer to this if he so chooses, but on this singular point: NATO expansion is entirely voluntary to the nations that have wanted to join it. At no stage in the admission process for any nation has NATO used their joining as a way to encourage aggression. Quite the opposite, in fact. Expansion was and is designed to prevent aggression from the likes of Russia... who really do seem to like being aggressive, don't they?

If Putin and Russia have found NATO expansion to be threatening, it is because they don't like the idea of previous Soviet nations being allowed to voluntarily join a democratically created and maintained organisation. There is no defence for the 'NATO aggression' argument, without also denying sovereign nations the right to self determination.
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Hell, NATO has been really quite weak until now. Most members not meeting spensing commitments, and the Eastern flank (and only real flank) being sparsely defended (any Russian invasion with their until recently percieved strength would have gotten quite deep).

On another note, this weakness of Nato, is one of the reasons Putin has felt bold enough to go ahead with this invasion.
 


…they're indoctrinating their own troops with bald-faced lies and are among the most prolific liars in the history of the world. There's a saying "don't believe anything until the Kremlin denies it" for a reason.

But! If you treat these liars with appropriate skepticism and disregard, well now! How uncouth and one sided. We mustn't turn a deaf ear to the screeches of a madman who may very well be justified in bombing hospitals, schools and apartment buildings!

Now in a related topic, let me explain to everyone how I've determined the earth is flat…
 


…a 70 year old ex KGB agent thinks the old playbook works in a world of ubiquitous smart phones and other internet-connected cameras. The pathological liar's lies are disseminated even as we all can see plain as day they're lies, and his response is to smirk and butcher more babies.

But be careful about taking sides here folks! Let's hear him out…
 
eyesabitdull said:
Ya know, of all the places that I thought would be so one sided in the conversation about Russia-Ukraine, GAF was not one of them.

After the US general election, and the civil discourse we had over it that was very contained, open minded to both sides opinions, and welcoming to differing perspectives - I thought we would have similar discourse over here.

So color me surprised at the absolute one sided conversation here, with almost constant pro-UA news without ever showing the other side - regardless of source or whether it appears bias or not - to enter the discussion.

Not because i'm pro Russia (i could care less on either side tbh), but because it's starting to be an echo chamber in here.
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"pen minded to both sides opinions, and welcoming to differing perspectives"

get de fuck outa here... sure why dont we discuss the rationale and differing perspectives to the complete and utter destruction of Mariupol, im all ears and cant wait to hear your side of the argument
 
Bernd Lauert said:
It's one of those very rare cases where it's really a one-sided issue. I find myself agreeing with people who are usually wrong about everything, but that's just how it is. Russia is the bad guy, there's no way around it.
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Yup. I've been critical to a lot of the things the west/US has done around the world, so it's not a double standard either. And let me just say, my wife's father is Russian (her mother is from Ukraine who's now living under Russian occupation, and really harsh conditions at that..), we have a lot of Russian friends, and I'm living in an area where there's a lot of Russian tourism and we've been welcoming them with open arms ALWAYS. But Putin and his henchmen really is something else.., the aggression towards Ukraine is something else and I just cannot see much logical value in interpreting this in more than "one way". I know Ukraine like it's my second home, we also have friends from Donetsk, and we saw the writing on the wall when the Russian propaganda machine started to rev up.. This is not about being purposefully one-sided. It's one-sided because there's simply no other side.. There's a history that can be talked about in other threads at another time perhaps, but there is no other side in the context of this thread whatsoever.

..I guess I'm rambling again, sorry for the mess..
 
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eyesabitdull said:
True, maybe you're right. Maybe I missed a lot in the 220 pages.

It just feels odd because we've been very capable of talking about a lot of topics on GAF, but somehow it does feel a little bit one sided here?

Oh well, you make a good point. It's no point me trying to play devils advocate here. I'll just ignore the thread again.

Appreciate you replying without condemning me though!
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This is why it's so one sided:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disinformation_in_the_2021–2022_Russo-Ukrainian_crisis

There is literally nothing truthful coming from the other side. Any Russian that tells the truth or has a different opinion to the government is subject to 15 years in jail.
 
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Thaedolus said:


…a 70 year old ex KGB agent thinks the old playbook works in a world of ubiquitous smart phones and other internet-connected cameras. The pathological liar's lies are disseminated even as we all can see plain as day they're lies, and his response is to smirk and butcher more babies.

But be careful about taking sides here folks! Let's hear him out…
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Sadly seems like it is working for the most part.

Couple thousand people protesting are nothing compared to the millions eating all that shit up.
 
mxbison said:
Sadly seems like it is working for the most part.

Couple thousand people protesting are nothing compared to the millions eating all that shit up.
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Sadly not just in Russia, just go to the "fake news, can't trust mainstream media" areas of the Internet to see how effective this is in the West... hell we have had more than a few in this very thread.
 
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Thaedolus said:


…a 70 year old ex KGB agent thinks the old playbook works in a world of ubiquitous smart phones and other internet-connected cameras. The pathological liar's lies are disseminated even as we all can see plain as day they're lies, and his response is to smirk and butcher more babies.

But be careful about taking sides here folks! Let's hear him out…
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I think this is the same lady that loudly proclaimed Russia would 'destroy Ukraine' last year before the invasion even happened. She is a nasty piece of work.
 
eyesabitdull said:
Ya know, of all the places that I thought would be so one sided in the conversation about Russia-Ukraine, GAF was not one of them.

After the US general election, and the civil discourse we had over it that was very contained, open minded to both sides opinions, and welcoming to differing perspectives - I thought we would have similar discourse over here.

So color me surprised at the absolute one sided conversation here, with almost constant pro-UA news without ever showing the other side - regardless of source or whether it appears bias or not - to enter the discussion.

Not because i'm pro Russia (i could care less on either side tbh), but because it's starting to be an echo chamber in here.
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You are welcome to make the case for what Russia is doing. Please, I'd be curious to see what you come up with.
 
eyesabitdull said:
Ya know, of all the places that I thought would be so one sided in the conversation about Russia-Ukraine, GAF was not one of them.

After the US general election, and the civil discourse we had over it that was very contained, open minded to both sides opinions, and welcoming to differing perspectives - I thought we would have similar discourse over here.

So color me surprised at the absolute one sided conversation here, with almost constant pro-UA news without ever showing the other side - regardless of source or whether it appears bias or not - to enter the discussion.

Not because i'm pro Russia (i could care less on either side tbh), but because it's starting to be an echo chamber in here.
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Sometime one has to recognize evil wrong things and be able to call them out. Few times in the world are things black and white, this is one of those times. Russia is clearly in the wrong and has been a bad actor on the worlds stage.
 
So the head of the French intel service was sacked. Seems like Continental European intel was completely blind-sided. Both him and his German counterpart were caught by surprise (the German one so much so that he got stuck in Kyiv when the invasion began).

I've seen reported that Euro intel services were considering that it wouldn't make any sense for Putin to attack Ukraine, due to the massive losses his forces would suffer, and the overall uncertain end result.
Ironically, this is very similar to what Stalin thought of warnings about Hitler's attack plans.
 
Nikodemos said:
So the head of the French intel service was sacked. Seems like Continental European intel was completely blind-sided. Both him and his German counterpart were caught by surprise (the German one so much so that he got stuck in Kyiv when the invasion began).

I've seen reported that Euro intel services were considering that it wouldn't make any sense for Putin to attack Ukraine, due to the massive losses his forces would suffer, and the overall uncertain end result.
Ironically, this is very similar to what Stalin thought of warnings about Hitler's attack plans.
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Yeah only solid intel had USA, it's embarrassing for the Germany and France at the start of the war. Especially Germany how they just send 5k helmets as a "support"... They largely saved their asses with proper support tho.
 
Nikodemos said:
So the head of the French intel service was sacked. Seems like Continental European intel was completely blind-sided. Both him and his German counterpart were caught by surprise (the German one so much so that he got stuck in Kyiv when the invasion began).

I've seen reported that Euro intel services were considering that it wouldn't make any sense for Putin to attack Ukraine, due to the massive losses his forces would suffer, and the overall uncertain end result.
Ironically, this is very similar to what Stalin thought of warnings about Hitler's attack plans.
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I don't see how they could have any place in intelligence if they ate that "Putin is a rational mastermind" dog food and said it tasted good.
 
Ukraine chose a leader who made bank by being funny.
Now beseiged, the World responds by blocking Russia's money.

Volodymyr made a plea,
for help from overseas.
And in the end,
the States did send,
some drones and RPGs.

So...now...it's...

Springtime...for Ukraine...and Zelenskyy.
Putin...unhappy...these days.
Russia's intent is out-of-place.
Their first assault fell on its face.

Springtime...for Ukraine...and Zelenskyy.
Bravest defenders around.

It's time...for Ukraine...and Zelenskyy,
to show the whole World,
flags high and unfurled.

Ukraine...is standing its...ground!
_____
Written by sCHOCOLATE.
Sung to the tune of "Springtime for Hit-" from The Producers (1968)
Under the circumstances, I reckon Mel might approve.
_____

JWIv6J4.jpg
 
Disrupting markets I could see them saying it's a tit for tat retaliation for sanctions.

Attacks that disable critical infrastructure? Them's fightin words
 
Nikodemos said:
So the head of the French intel service was sacked. Seems like Continental European intel was completely blind-sided. Both him and his German counterpart were caught by surprise (the German one so much so that he got stuck in Kyiv when the invasion began).

I've seen reported that Euro intel services were considering that it wouldn't make any sense for Putin to attack Ukraine, due to the massive losses his forces would suffer, and the overall uncertain end result.
Ironically, this is very similar to what Stalin thought of warnings about Hitler's attack plans.
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It seems that they were going off circumstantial and presumptive intelligence while the Anglo intelligence was actual intelligence.

If so, they tells us two things:
  • Continental intelligence gathering ability is not that good.
  • Continental intelligence are too willing to go on poor intelligence.
 
Tams said:
It seems that they were going off circumstantial and presumptive intelligence while the Anglo intelligence was actual intelligence.

If so, they tells us two things:
  • Continental intelligence gathering ability is not that good.
  • Continental intelligence are too willing to go on poor intelligence.
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They had access to US intel. Not to all of it, evidently, but enough to create an assessment.

Seems to me like they fell victim to an unfortunate logic flaw called "hyper-rationalism". The idea that a) every political decider is pursuing avenues of action that are always in their best interest; b) every political decider has access to clear and untampered information; c) every leader uses a prudential stratagem when taking action (favoring minimizing risk over maximizing outcome).

We now know that Putin is a senile revanchist cretin, his coterie of sycophants fed him garbage info, in order to conceal their own grift, and absolutely nobody in the entire chain of command gives one fuck about the lives of common troopers (though the last one is a time-honored Russian tradition across all eras).

This is something Carlo Cipolla tangentially wrote about, in his laws about human stupidity. His take was that smart people almost always underestimate both the prevalence of imbeciles, and their power (be it political, economic, etc).
Continental analysts made the exact mistake Stalin made when notified that Hitler was about to invade: they didn't believe Putin was idiotic enough to try. Of course, also tainted by a certain snootiness towards US intel (which, admittedly, did produce a few notable duds throughout time).
 
Putin scaling back the war with missiles, artillery, energy blackmail against Germany, and a mass draft. If he keeps on scaling it back like this, there will be nobody left in Russia by the end of the year except for the 1st Ukrainian farmer tank regiment.
 
Nikodemos said:
They had access to US intel. Not to all of it, evidently, but enough to create an assessment.
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I read somewhere that the French Intelligence service didn't entirely trust the US info, after what they pulled for the Irak war. Typical case of « boy who cried wolf »
 
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