Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

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IndoAssassin said:
If that's not poor intelligence then how do you explain underestimating your enemy like Afghanistan or Iraq?
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It's not something you can easily quantify and therefore make predictions on. And any intelligence from that is also going to be coloured by the other entity's own belief in themselves.

Afghanistan and Iraq were not failures of intelligence. Militarily, they were very successful. Of course, there were some fuck-ups (sadly quite a few by us Brits - but that was often more military execution, not intelligence).
 
IndoAssassin said:
If that's not poor intelligence then how do you explain underestimating your enemy like Afghanistan or Iraq?

American intelligence sucks ass. Look at how badly they fucked ip Afghanistan
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I wouldn't go that far .. it's not to make such a statement against one country .. but lots of intelligence agencies over the world got to comfortable in a world without a war or a real aggressor like Hitler / Saddam .. in that regard Putin woke them up.
 
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sinnergy said:
I wouldn't go that far .. it's not to make such a statement against one country .. but lots of intelligence agencies over the world got to comfortable in a world without a war or a real aggressor like Hitler / Saddam .. in that regard Putin woke them up.
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That's one thing but when it's a recurrence it's a problem. Since WW2 all the bungles that have happened compared to success how can you point American intelligence as something competent?
 
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IndoAssassin said:
If that's not poor intelligence then how do you explain underestimating your enemy like Afghanistan or Iraq?

American intelligence sucks ass. Look at how badly they fucked up Afghanistan.
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This is such a pedestrian way of looking at things. American intelligence predicted Putin's invasion and held firm to that prediction despite recalcitrance from the Germans, French etc.
American intelligence + surveillance is a big contributor to Ukraine's success so far.

You're basically claiming "US intelligence isn't perfect so it sucks ass".

IndoAssassin said:
They couldn't even foresee that a war with Russia would deplete their supplies within one year and that's with drastically overestimating Russia's power.

Now China who is actually on or with them how long do they expect their ammunition to last then?
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The problem is you don't fully understand what you're reading and youre misinterpreting things. The reports are that some of US surplus munitions are being impacted because they're drawn out faster than can be replaced in a non-wartime scenario. This only impacts stuff like HIMARS missiles.

The US still maintains a staggering amount of weapons, they haven't provided Ukraine with the vast majority of their weapons systems. In a real war against a near peer, they'd be raining down cruise and ballistic missiles and relying less on 80km range HIMARS. Their air based weapons are untouched. Cruise missiles are untouched. Naval capability is untouched. They haven't provided Ukraine with any tanks yet so they're stuffed with Tanks and tank munitions. Heck, the US has thousands of Bradley fighting vehicles and Hummvees in storage.

There's way more than enough to fight effectively if need be…and that's before going to wartime footing where they'd ramp up weapons and ammo manufacturing.
 
Yeah, there are 3500 inactive tanks sitting in the California desert alone, among thousands of other armored vehicles.

The US military is terrible at fighting insurgencies and acting as an occupying force with the defeat in Afghanistan spotlighting that weakness. Conventional warfare? It's not even a contest. Russia is realizing very quickly just how far behind they really are, and the only thing keeping them from getting utterly annihilated is the threat of mutually assured destruction.

Unfortunately, there are second and third order effects. This is undoubtedly why North Korea has resumed and tripled down on their ballistic missile testing after being quiet for awhile. A nuclear weapon guarantees that they won't ever be invaded.
 
Meicyn said:
Yeah, there are 3500 inactive tanks sitting in the California desert alone, among thousands of other armored vehicles.

The US military is terrible at fighting insurgencies and acting as an occupying force with the defeat in Afghanistan spotlighting that weakness. Conventional warfare? It's not even a contest. Russia is realizing very quickly just how far behind they really are, and the only thing keeping them from getting utterly annihilated is the threat of mutually assured destruction.

Unfortunately, there are second and third order effects. This is undoubtedly why North Korea has resumed and tripled down on their ballistic missile testing after being quiet for awhile. A nuclear weapon guarantees that they won't ever be invaded.
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The biggest takeaway from this war is how good the russians are at status projection. Everyone thought their army was second only to america but oh boy when that assumption was put to the test there were some hard lessons to learn.

Their only strength is that they can get hundreds of thousands of russians to die miserably while the population will sit by and chug vodka. Americans had to resort to hiding the coffins because even a single soldier death would generate a political tempest.
 

season 7 cooking GIF by MasterChef Junior
 


I feel bad for any kid since seems they are now pushing 15-year-old kids into the fight, but if the parents of those 15 years old in Ruzzia do nothing, they are part of the problem too.
 
MisterFalcon said:
It does make sense to a point where this scenario where all of Russia's enemies start fighting each other is the only one where Russia can win.
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Well, it's what they would do if they were all those entities (somehow vying against each other).

They expect others to fuck with them, so fuck with them too. When someone comes to them in good faith, then they just take advantage of it. It really knocks them off kilter when someone decides they've had enough and then no longer puts up with their shit.
 
At this point I wonder how military analyst rank the Russian military.
It's clear they are not the 2nd most powerful military in the world. They are not even the 2nd best in Ukraine.
Could Russia even rank inside the top 20?
 
Tams said:
Well, it's what they would do if they were all those entities (somehow vying against each other).

They expect others to fuck with them, so fuck with them too. When someone comes to them in good faith, then they just take advantage of it. It really knocks them off kilter when someone decides they've had enough and then no longer puts up with their shit.
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Yeah, the Russians and their American fanboys are obsessed with the idea that Poland will invade and annex West Ukraine. It's what they did to Poland so it's what they think others will do too, stab their ally in the back to help their supposed enemy.
 
When you're such a purveyor of pristine morality you have to rape and torture a population and when people stand the post in opposition you just call them gay
 
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IndoAssassin said:
If that's not poor intelligence then how do you explain underestimating your enemy like Afghanistan or Iraq?

American intelligence sucks ass. Look at how badly they fucked up Afghanistan.

They couldn't even foresee that a war with Russia would deplete their supplies within one year and that's with drastically overestimating Russia's power.

Now China who is actually on or with them how long do they expect their ammunition to last then?

And that's with a 4 million man army ready to go. And a larger naval fleet by tonnage than they themselves have.
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This is a very weird way to analyze the effectiveness of US Intelligence.

Under estimate the enemy? Huh?? US intelligence was on point regarding conventional state actions/military. What happened in both Afghanistan/Iraq was the Admin thinking they could manage two wars with no clear objective or end in sight for either.

Iraq and Afghanistan were a failure because of US arrogance and over confidence that conventional military might would be sufficient to hold off insurgencies in two countries at the same time.
 
There shouldn't be much of negotiations other than, please hand over your Nazi warcriminals, and put a bullet in Putins head after giving him a blood eagle:

RuSSian soldiers murdered an eight-member Romani family, the youngest child was just one year old


https://romea.cz/en/world/ukrainian...mily-the-youngest-child-was-just-one-year-old


Speaking of Nazis, the Donetsk leader of pro-Russian separatists honored a Russian soldier with Nazi symbols on his uniform for his role in Mariupol


https://romea.cz/en/world/speaking-...sian-soldier-with-nazi-symbols-on-his-uniform
 
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