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Saudis block OPEC output cut, oil price sinks $4

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vpance

Member
VIENNA (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia set the stage for more blood-letting on oil markets after blocking on Thursday calls from poorer members of the OPEC oil exporter group for output cuts to arrest a slide in crude prices.

Benchmark Brent oil fell more than $4 to $73.50 a barrel on fears that the global oversupply will build up in coming months as Saudi Arabia kept silent about what would prompt it to consider production cuts.

With an OPEC statement making no mention of any extraordinary meeting or a need for members to stop overproducing, Thursday's decision represents a major shift in the group's policies away from its usual drive to defend prices.

The outcome effectively means a battle for market share between OPEC and non-OPEC countries as a boom in U.S. shale oil production and weaker economic growth in China and Europe have already sent crude prices down about a third since June.

"It was a great decision," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said as he emerged smiling after around five hours of talks.

Asked whether OPEC had decided not to cut production and to roll over existing output policies, he replied: "That is right".

A price war will also seriously hurt top non-OPEC exporter Russia, which has clashed with Saudi Arabia over Moscow's support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Russia is already suffering from Western sanctions over its actions in Ukraine and needs oil prices of $100 per barrel to balance its budget.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accounts for a third of global oil output.

If it were to cut exports without similar action by its competitors, it would lose further market share, including to North American shale oil producers.

Gulf producers could withstand for some time the market-share battle that could drive down prices further, thanks to their large foreign-currency reserves. Members without such a cushion would find it much more difficult.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/low-expectations-oil-output-cut-082000197.html?l=1

Now if gas prices can come down another 30% that would be nice.
 

giga

Member
5889fd2567626b3250fdb50f4a48feb6.png
 
Cheaper gas for me, hurts Russia.

Excellent.

Saudi Arabia's play here is the pipeline? the lower the price, the lower the incentive to have the keystone pipeline?

Fracking is more expensive than traditional extraction. If they drive the price down for long enough, it'll force the US companies to cut extraction, which will put more marketshare back into OPEC's hands.
 

Chumly

Member
Should be a boost to the U.S. economy. Not surprised that Saudi arabia doesn't support a cut since most of opec members don't abide by it anyways
 

clemenx

Banned
Arabs don't ultimately care that much, they've diversified enough,

Stupid socialist who depend 100% on oil and gas (Russia, Venezuela) are the ones getting fucked.
 

Mononoke

Banned
I honestly can't wait for this meme to fucking die...

OT: good move shitty for the environment but no one cares because CHEAP FUEL WOOHOOO!!!!!


:/

Pretty annoying meme to be quite honest. While it's true that, some people are insane and blame Obama for everything (hence why the meme started and was kind of funny), it's annoying how it becomes a blanket defense for everything this admin does.

Can't criticize them ever, because then you automatic fall into the "crazy" territory that blames Obama for things he shouldn't be blamed for.
 

ZiZ

Member
Arabs don't ultimately care that much, they've diversified enough,

Stupid socialist who depend 100% on oil and gas (Russia, Venezuela) are the ones getting fucked.

some countries like the UAE might have other sources of income, but not Saudi Arabia.

They probably did this because the US told them to.
 

Pastry

Banned
Its cute you think taking care of the environment matters when we will destroy ourselves in war by the end of the century.

This is sarcasm, right?

I have mixed feelings on this considering I work in O&G. Especially since I have a hefty salary compensation riding on how well my company does :(
 

Mesousa

Banned
This is sarcasm, right?

I have mixed feelings on this considering I work in O&G. Especially since I have a hefty salary compensation riding on how well my company does :(

BP?

That has to be the best company on Earth to work for. My cousin works there and the benefits she gets are out of the world, and the bonus she gets when oil does well is insane!
 
Arabs don't ultimately care that much, they've diversified enough,

Stupid socialist who depend 100% on oil and gas (Russia, Venezuela) are the ones getting fucked.

How is Russia socialist and what does socialism have to do with putting all your eggs into one basket?

But yes diversifying is key. Ecuador and Saudi Arabia learned that lesson.
 

GusBus

Member
Everyone (at least in the US) can get behind lower gas prices, imo. Obama's EPA restrictions will still force auto manufacturers to meet tough standards by 2025.
 

G.ZZZ

Member
This is a move to hurt american newfound production. If oil price keep going lower, all the investment in American Companies which sell gas won't be able to come back and they'll have an hard time if not downright collapse. Sadly, south america and smaller OPEC countries get fucked as an aftermath too.
 

Kainazzo

Member
some countries like the UAE might have other sources of income, but not Saudi Arabia.

They probably did this because the US told them to.

If they did I'd wonder why. Horizontal shale wells dry up much sooner than conventional verticals. Lower oil prices means no more drilling, so when existing wells stop producing, prices go up due to a lack of supply. Last I checked some of our wells in west Texas were getting $58/bbl, I don't want to know now >_>.

My boss' first run with a price drop was in 1974, and every time it took 9-10 months to even back out. The exception was 2008, when it took about 18. My company has already stopped drilling; we'll hunker down, focus on the geology of potential new plays, and come out stronger for it. 2010 was our best year because so many companies didn't prep enough for the rebound.
 

akira28

Member
Yeah that's what the environment needs right now.

jajaja. Actually dollar gas would be wonderful for the American economy. The environment wouldn't be impacted as much because cash for clunkers and more efficient vehicles being the norm now.

But people would start traveling again, tourism, trips to restaurants and malls, and venues 'just because'. And since there are city circulator bus options, people can drive to the station parking lots and take city buses.

It doesn't have to be a disaster. It's all in how you manage it.
 
I know you are being sarcastic, but this time, it really could have been Obama. Foreign policy (is one aspect where the President has direct control over without congressional approval.

Actually, I wasn't being sarcastic. I know U.S. has considerable influence over SA so there may be some reasonablility in assuming USA was involved.
 

vpance

Member
jajaja. Actually dollar gas would be wonderful for the American economy. The environment wouldn't be impacted as much because cash for clunkers and more efficient vehicles being the norm now.

But people would start traveling again, tourism, trips to restaurants and malls, and venues 'just because'. And since there are city circulator bus options, people can drive to the station parking lots and take city buses.

It doesn't have to be a disaster. It's all in how you manage it.

Yep. The American recovery is real, and spectacular.
 
jajaja. Actually dollar gas would be wonderful for the American economy. The environment wouldn't be impacted as much because cash for clunkers and more efficient vehicles being the norm now.

But people would start traveling again, tourism, trips to restaurants and malls, and venues 'just because'. And since there are city circulator bus options, people can drive to the station parking lots and take city buses.

It doesn't have to be a disaster. It's all in how you manage it.

I agree actually. There is an actual measurable trend for moving into the center parts of the city and gas was just one of the factor, so this trend likely won't affect it too much. Demographics, re-investments and preferences and geography will still play a bigger role in people moving back into the city again.

I'm not worried about public transit ridership either. As more and more people move into denser areas due to the aforementioned factors, cheaper gas prices still cannot alter geography and geometry. After all, cheaper gas prices cannot change how many people can fit in any given space on a freeway or street if they all decide to move at the same hours everyday. (this applies to robotic cars too)
 

Pastry

Banned
BP?

That has to be the best company on Earth to work for. My cousin works there and the benefits she gets are out of the world, and the bonus she gets when oil does well is insane!

No, it's one of the major O&G service providers/manufacturers. I was shocked when I got this job at how awesome the benefits are.
 

alol

Saudi Arabia punishing Russia for backing Assad against their funded militia, IS.


IS funds themselves through captured oil fields, ransoms, the Mosul bank takeover, not Saudi Arabia. I'm sure private moneymen in the country have donated but I'm not too sure that the Saud family, the embodiement of everything wrong with the Islamic world (in IS eyes), would support them.

EDIT: Another theory is they maybe backed in the start, to get steam going, but then backed off after they saw that IS got out of their control.

The Regime released several prominent jihadist in a large release of prisoners, in 2011 i believe, in an attempt to militarise the revoltion and portray it as consisting of foreign terrorist cells, acting on behalf of foreign enemies, a foreign conspiracy basically. Got out of control too.

USA tried to control it in Afghanistan v the Soviets... Got out of control too.

When will they every learn ?
 

A Fish Aficionado

I am going to make it through this year if it kills me
Oil companies pay upwards of $14 an hour for basic fire watch duty...much better than working retail. And that's contractors without a union.
 
Yeah that's what the environment needs right now.

Climate change really isn't an environmental issue, it is a human civilization issue. The environment will adjust. Sure, a lot of species will go extinct but that's happened before. But civilization will lose cities to flooding. Lose infrastructure due to storms. Lose agricultural areas due to salt water storm surges flooding fertile river deltas. Lose agriculture due to droughts & heat waves. Lose sea food productivity if the ocean food chain collapse due to ocean acidification.

Climate change got bad branding as an 'environmental' issue . . . it is really a human civilization issue.
 

Snowdrift

Member
Saudi Arabia's play here is the pipeline? the lower the price, the lower the incentive to have the keystone pipeline?

This has almost nothing to do with Keystone. It is about a cartel (OPEC, but more specifically Sauda Arabia) attempting to drive competition out of the market. They are attempting to protect market share. Besides, many Canadian producers are now using railcars to ship crude when there exists pipeline bottlenecks.

Since I'm too lazy to write a summary of the break even costs for oil production in N.A., here is a picture instead. Canadian producers are relatively secure at the moment because of the depreciation in the CAD relative to the USD.

p5SjGz4.jpg
 
Arabs don't ultimately care that much, they've diversified enough,

Stupid socialist who depend 100% on oil and gas (Russia, Venezuela) are the ones getting fucked.

Yeah, I worry about Venezuela. They've got to be close to financial collapse. Actually, with some 64% inflation they are pretty much experiencing financial collapse.

The government needs to cut back on the social program an invest in oil extraction. If you don't invest, your production drops. And dropping production during dropping oil prices has pretty much made Venezuela a basket case.
 
IS funds themselves through captured oil fields, ransoms, the Mosul bank takeover, not Saudi Arabia. I'm sure private moneymen in the country have donated but I'm not too sure that the Saud family, the embodiement of everything wrong with the Islamic world (in IS eyes), would support them.

They don't sell in any official market so the prices they can charge are likely to be wildly different and lower.
 

Neo C.

Member
Fracking is more expensive than traditional extraction. If they drive the price down for long enough, it'll force the US companies to cut extraction, which will put more marketshare back into OPEC's hands.
When is fracking too expensive, I wonder. $40 a barrel? $30?

Edit: beaten and thanks for the graph.
 
Russia will survive this. U.S. fracking boom... not so much.

They will all survive, it is just a matter of how much pain each experiences. The prices will eventually recover (Unless some big game changer happens like Iraq doubling output, EV battery prices dropping, China economic collapse, etc.)
 
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