He's mediocre. He's playing nowhere near as good as he could be, but at what's probably a pretty decent level to clear through the game on Veteran.
The main problem is that failing the first VIP mission is basically a fail state. Not having that engineer cripples your early economy (that relies on clearing debris for extra supplies), cripples your early production (that relies on being able to get a Proving Ground and Advanced Warfare Center out ASAP), and if you somehow last long enough will continue to have vicious ripple-effects into the midgame. (You won't keep up with the Avatar ticker because you won't have enough Comms to reach Blacksite regions. You won't have enough Intel because you had to spend too much catching up on Engineers. You won't have enough levels on your troops because you didn't have an AWC up to reduce their wound recovery times to a reasonable period.)
Basically, if you're doing serious Ironman runs failing that VIP mission is grounds to restart the campaign on the spot. The fact that Pat's carrying on with it means he's probably doomed no matter what he does. The deck is stacked so high against him by this point that completely reasonable missions are going to feel borderline impossible.
That can be fun to watch, though.
So basically, I should stop thinking Pat can turn it around, because he has already lost and is just dragging out the inevitable.