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Smelling blood, Clinton expanding campaign into Arizona and Georgia
- Thread starter giga
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SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
lol @ Trump
shadowsdarknes
Member
That rapid drop/gain (depending on your viewpoint) seems unlikely to stick completely.
BronsonLee
Member
It will if things keep going the way they are now
We'd be seeing it start to subside by now, not grow. People need to keep in mind that outside of the Republican electorate Trump is a toxic figure and while he may be on script right now that's not likely to last very long.
I think he is becoming toxic to certain segments of the republican electorate. She actually gaining with white men
Orbis Tabula
Member
I hear Hillary Clinton can smell a single drop of blood in 1,000 gallons of water.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That's not a 50-state strategy because, say, Wyoming, is not possible for the Democrats. Expanding to Georgia and Arizona simply means Clinton is pursuing a 12-state strategy rather than a 10-state strategy. An actual 50-state strategy is an enormous waste of money.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
It should've been waining if it were. I think people holding out for a "real" Trump to be underneath the baffonery broke after the Khantroversy. The message of this is the real Trump is sticking.
shadowsdarknes
Member
Trump has had some really bad weeks before, too. He's rebounded a bit as he gets back on message.
If he focuses on the economy and to only attacking Hillary Clinton (and not making jabs at anyone else), he can rebound to some degree.
I was told that the real campaign starts in September.
exmachina64
Banned
Doesn't that go against statistics?
brochiller
Member
Damn those eyes are creepy.
blackaroni
Member
In play means actually having a presence. Previously they lost support because they'd ignore the GOP states completely and just try to keep their existing ones. Even providing a basic acknowledgement of a state gets people out to vote for you but more importantly, the local offices.
They actually showed up in Nebraska, for example, in 2008 and split our electoral vote for the first time. Nobody else (fuck Maine) has done that, or can, but going for blood is how this should be done.
LegendofJoe
Member
Yep, local and state level democrats in most red states have to pull their own weight and hope the turnout numbers favor them enough to flip some offices. That's why I focus on giving to local and state candidates for office, they need the help more.
BobTheFork
Member
Wasn't there a pollster justifying this by saying that people are too embarrassed to say they are voting for Trump when asked but they'll vote for him anyways?
The problem for Trump is, every bad week he's had had before has also come attached with "but he can turn things around at the convention."
The convention is over, and he actually came out of it with less support than going into it. For Republicans/moderates who had been on the fence about him, there's no great hope on the horizon for him to turn things around with those people and coalesce party support anymore.
DeathoftheEndless
Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
Finish Him!
Pai Pai Master
Banned
Lol there are dozens of us! Dozens!
I'd say it's also possible there are just as many conservatives who say they will vote for the party's sake, but will either abstain or check Hillary's box when they're alone in that booth
Campaigns only have a certain amount of resources - time, money and people. There aren't enough of them to cover every state. Good campaigns need to prioritise the states that let them win, and where possible expand the map. Putting resources into Wyoming say is a complete waste of time and resources - any pay/off would be decades later, and they need votes right now.
Always frustrates me when democrats go on about a 50 state strategy and how the party has failed since dropping it. There was never a proper fifty state strategy, nor should there be. We're supposed to be the smart party that uses data and analytics to win, so spraying cash around everywhere in the hope some of it pays off at some point in the future.
QuantumZebra
Member
I would think
hope and pray
Also worth mentioning are the Republicans who are straight up bailing on this election. Not sure how that would shake out in polls - but Republican support for Trump is low and his unfavorable are *bad*.
--
BTW - White guy living in GA voting for Hillary here.
ShockingAlberto
Member
That's not what a 50-state strategy is. This is expanding to other states based on polling and demographic changes. Trying an actual 50-state strategy from the get-go is a huge waste of resources and makes you incredibly unlikely to win.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
But more Democratic votes in Wyoming doesn't help anyone. Clinton will never win Wyoming, and in the crazy unlikely event she did, it would be such an enormous landslide she wouldn't even care. Wyoming does not have a Senate race this year. Wyoming does have a House race, but it's even less likely that the Democrats would take that than they would the electoral college votes. The Wyoming Senate has 26 Republicans to 4 Democrats; the Democrats would have to take 12 seats in the state elections to have any influence. That's not happening. In the lower house, that figure is 51 to 9.
So, why spend money in Wyoming?
(You can do this for other states, incidentally, I just picked Wyoming because then you don't have to run through the big long list of totally non-competitive House seats).
There are some states that are not going to be competitive in the presidential that still have important house races for the Democrats to pour money into. But even then, I'd guesstimate without looking at the figures that for at least a third of US states, there is absolutely zero point in bothering to contest.
If you're talking state-wide campaigns, these are the states that are worth contesting:
Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, South Carolina for the presidential race.
Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, West Virginia for the gubernatorial races.
Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin for the senate races.
Don't live in one of those states? Not getting a state-wide campaign in your state.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Some people so think there may be an effect like that. People often predict things like that happening, calling it the Bradley Effect or the Shy Tory Effect. Truth is, it could happen. However, there's no evidence pointing to it. Trump performed pretty much in line with his poll numbers during the primary. Most are assuming he will do the same here.
Empyrean Heaven
Member
IT'S OVAH BROTHER TRUMP
PREPARE TO BE DELLLEETEDDD!
DELETE! DELETE! DELETE! DELETE!
PREPARE TO BE DELLLEETEDDD!
DELETE! DELETE! DELETE! DELETE!
Netherscourge
Banned
Nothing would make me feel better than a completely BLUE election map in November.
Future investment.
Or you could go after a few core states for short term gains and feelgood, see where that gets the party though.
ShockingAlberto
Member
So how much money should Republicans be spending on the presidential election in California?
TheCochese
Banned
I'm doin' work down here, and I haven't even started in on my own fam yet.
tycoonheart
Member
lol. Its gonna be an absolute bloodbath come November.
I think conversation is starting to happen amongst the electorate now that it's down to a binary choice, and Trump had a solid week and a half of unadulterated lunacy. It becomes pretty obvious that he's unfit for office, even as a middle finger vote.
However, he just gave a policy speech on his tax plan, and while it's still god awful, it's something substantive in a sea of nothingness, so we'll see how rural white dudes react to that.
I really love how Trump is obsessed with the death tax and how the crowd cheers for removing it, even though it's something that affects basically no one but rich hoarding motherfuckers like himself.
However, he just gave a policy speech on his tax plan, and while it's still god awful, it's something substantive in a sea of nothingness, so we'll see how rural white dudes react to that.
I really love how Trump is obsessed with the death tax and how the crowd cheers for removing it, even though it's something that affects basically no one but rich hoarding motherfuckers like himself.
H.Cornerstone
Member
I was reading this article about how Mormons are not fond of Trump:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...6/08/why_mormons_don_t_like_donald_trump.html
Which could come into play in a huge way in Arizona as we have a large Mormon population and they typically vote Republican.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...6/08/why_mormons_don_t_like_donald_trump.html
Which could come into play in a huge way in Arizona as we have a large Mormon population and they typically vote Republican.
The Clinton campaign spent millions on Olympic ads and the Trump campaign didn't buy any.
Wyoming is extremely deep red and worth 3 electoral votes. It's a waste of time and money to spend any resources in the state.
As it should be, Trump needs to not just lose, the ideology just needs to feel complete rejection.
Shit it's too hard. Just give up, then!
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
Mormons seem value politeness rather highly. Donald Trump is not a polite man.
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