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Smelling blood, Clinton expanding campaign into Arizona and Georgia
- Thread starter giga
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Cesare Borgia
Banned
I don't think Clinton will win either state but given Trump's limited resources, forcing him to play defense everywhere is very valuable. The interesting thing about Arizona is that democrats have been preparing to seriously contest it for decades. A lot of groups have done very impressive Hispanic outreach and voter registration there. In many ways this is a perfect year for those efforts to pay off. Trump is a once in a generation disaster candidate who happens to be hated by Hispanics. There's also an opportunity to knock off John McCain. I expect both Trump and McCain to win but still, this is a big opportunity and there's a chance it goes perfectly.
I don't believe Clinton is winning in Georgia, personally.
I don't believe Clinton is winning in Georgia, personally.
forgeforsaken
Member
Wasn't that Dilbert's Scott Adams.
Do you think Hillary has infinite money? Why should she spend a cent in a state that is, honestly, worthless to winning and not instead pump more money into Ohio and Florida?
Georgia seems out of reach, but if they really focus on getting out the vote for the Hispanic block in Arizona I could see that going for Hillary. Either way, forcing Trump and friends to spend their limited budget on previously locked up states must be humiliating. And imagine if Arizona becomes a full fledged swing state in 2020 instead of an assumed red state. Won't that be a sight.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
I'd eat my hat is Hillary actually won here in GA.
*OK I won't literally
Still think in the end enough of the southern white vote will pull that R lever including Trump in Nov.
Maybe I can't see the forest through the trees, but I don't see GA having enough of a demographic shift yet to flip the state.
That being said there is no denying the state is trending that way, and Trump makes it appear like that process has spend up.
Still expect the state to go red though. My personal projection was the state to flip blue in 2024. By then Atl growth + increasing minority population growth should over take a lot of the old south white vote.
*OK I won't literally
Still think in the end enough of the southern white vote will pull that R lever including Trump in Nov.
Maybe I can't see the forest through the trees, but I don't see GA having enough of a demographic shift yet to flip the state.
That being said there is no denying the state is trending that way, and Trump makes it appear like that process has spend up.
Still expect the state to go red though. My personal projection was the state to flip blue in 2024. By then Atl growth + increasing minority population growth should over take a lot of the old south white vote.
There is an article this week that the issue isn't so much the GOP Nom driving enough "good ol' boy" vote but that that vote already turns out near maximum already to offset the large and growing "New South" votes in the cities and suburbs.
With him bleeding support among educated White suburbanites, especially women, the well of good ol' boys to offset them is too small to catch up.
Lys Skygge
Member
I'm moving to Arizona later this month. I'll do my part in making sure she wins the state 
Lord Frieza
Member
Trump has never, whether we're talking about primaries or generals, dropped to this degree. Hell, he was never even behind in the GOP primaries. He's never had a 'bad week' like this remotely.
badcrumble
Member
If the Democrats haven't drafted House candidates to run in every single district like they did in 2006 ima be mad.
ShockingAlberto
Member
Supposedly his kids have taken away his twitter credentials, so that will help minimize his damage.
Are they going to take away the nuclear launch codes, too? Sad!
ShockingAlberto
Member
Georgia is fast becoming purple. The older generation is dying out and the state is becoming younger and more ethnically diverse. The significant black population in Atlanta is mobilizing, too.
Obama almost won it in 2008, too. McCain eventually bounced back, but Obama did better than you would think. The last Democrat to win it was Bill Clinton in 1992.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Prepare to be mad
ShockingAlberto
Member
shadowsdarknes
Member
Would you expect the gap to widen or shrink in the coming months?
I agree. There needs to be a loud and clear message to the entire country and the rest of the world that everything about Trump is utterly vile.
People need to understand that nothing he says or does is okay, and absolutely should not be followed in any form.
Lord Frieza
Member
I don't remember a pollster saying this, but I recall a GAF poster pedaling that. But I don't think they understood that the consensus taking on these polls are anonymous to begin with outside race.
He just tweeted yesterday about the Iran hostage/email nonsense, so I doubt that's true unless that just happened today. But I think the damage is already done as far as that goes, anyway.
Basileus777
Member
The primary results don't really support this as Trump performed in line with the polling for the most part.
You and your haven for every mosquito in the world isn't the only college town. Athens, Statsboro, etc.
This isn't Hillary's convention bump; this is Trump's convention hangover. And he just keeps on drinking.
AllIsOneIsNone
Banned
Atlanta is getting bigger fast, so I could imagine it being close in Georgia, now but moreso in the future.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Atlanta and a big turnout in the cotton belt. I think we can make it happen. Senate race will probably turn into a runoff and stay red though.
Lord Frieza
Member
One would think that eventually he would start to come back, but really, that should have started happening by now. And generally, gaps widen the closer we get to the actual election overall, even if there's fluctuation at times. The fact that Trump is so far behind at this stage in the game is pretty telling. I think the fact that the GOP is slowly abandoning him says they don't expect him to recover to any significant degree.
Ultimately, my thoughts are that if they actually manage to muzzle him, and he stays on script, he'll edge himself up, but the damage is done and he's created way too much of an image of himself that he can't scrap away in a short period of time. We see another blow up like last week, and I honestly don't think the numbers will improve much from what they are now.
Nope, but we're the prettiest one
But yeah I got a good feeling about this one. Let's do some damage.
badcrumble
Member
God the DNC's total strategic fuckup in 2010 is still paying poisonous dividends.
Mr. Giggles
Member
You bet your sweet sugary tits she can.
SirClinksAlot
Member
Same thing here in Tucson, Az. Its always Phoenix/Maricopa county that fucks things up for this state. Hopefully Hillary pushing here will be enough to help Kirkpatrick oust that fuck McCain.
She already spends more than him in ohio penn and florida....
His ohio and penn campaign staff is non-existent... he has no headquarters in PA and is rejected by conservatives like Kasich in Ohio, making him burn more money in az and Georgia as opposed to penn and ohio is smart
Hard to do considering his comments about the country of japan, and phillipino people just this weekend
BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD!
This is true, but I think also underestimates the amount that suburban, college-educated, Republican white women hate Trump. The minority vote has been slowly pushing places like GA bluer over the years, but the defection of college-educated whites against Trump is causing that shift to suddenly accelerate this election, and is why the state is suddenly very in play, instead of the sort of distant, maybe-in-another-election-or-two in play that it would be otherwise.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
...but Warren would have been more electorally successful than Clinton anyway? Why would Secret Warren decide to run as a worse version of herself?
jack_package_200
Banned
Does that mean Ted Cruz is Guts?
User 463088
Banned
I disagree with the assertion that Warren would have been more successful.
Hillary's success is her dominance with African American and Latino voters. While Warren would have gotten a bulk of that because "Not Trump" I think assuming that all of Hillary's support with those voting blocks is the result of her simply not being Trump is wrong. It ignores her unique strengths as a candidate.
Now, Warren would have done better than Bernie, I think, but that's neither here nor there.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Post of the fucking cycle. Holy shit!
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
African Americans and Latinos were going to vote Democrat regardless. In what world does an African American woman wake up, compare Trump and Warren, and go "actually, I prefer Trump?". None of the worlds! Meanwhile, salty liberals who feel rejected by the Democrats but are sufficiently middle class to be able to say "each as bad as each other/I'm not going to vote", who are very definitely in this world because we've seen them pretty regularly and you often complain about them, probably aren't in Warrenworld.
The real question is who was Casca in all of this? Chris Christie because he got royally fucked over by his beloved on the Eve of his ascension to Godhood?
How does turnout work?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Turnout works by getting Barack Obama to do your stumping for you.
These states are in play for one simple reason: Trump has no GOTV operation. No turnout operation + GOP moderates punishing the party = massive opportunity to tidal wave the election.
gutter_trash
Banned
Trump is getting Goldwatered, isn't he?
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