So much wishful thinking here. Sony's in a really bad spot and it seems they don't even have the cash to capitalise on released console opportunities (PS3 and Vita price drops plus money hats) let alone smash out a killer PS4 with momentum out of the gate.
How the hell do they get started with a PS4 in the next year when the PS3 is only now at the price it should have launched at?
Sure, anything can happen, Nintendo turned around 3rd place with easily the best tech per doller (GCN) to first place with the worst tech per doller (Wii) because they had an idea that caught on, at the right price, and backed it up with yet more software that caught on. I still can't believe Mario Kart Wii has sold over 30 million, insane. But is Kaz Iwata?
To make money with a console you have to start well and keep up momentum, Nintendo knew this with the 3DS and did what ammounted to a dramatic 're-launch' to re-start the momentum after a big stall, and all their teams dumped the Wii for 3DS (and assumedly WiiU) development to this purpose. With barely any help at all from 3rd parties Nintendo do it all themselves, they are the company that knows how to go it alone at this point and make the hard scheduling decisions this requires.
Do Sony have a cheap to produce idea that will catch the public's attention (like Wii Sports, Monster Hunter, Brain Training) and make PS4 take off?
I don't think they've shown they have in the past. Sony had some very, very beneficial situations with the PS1 and PS2. Sega released a disaster and Nintendo went with cartridges, all Sony did was released a decent console at the right time at the right price and 3rd parties jumped right on because the environment was good. Even then it took about 3 years to really take off. Sony handled the console extremely well, and eventually came up with actual system-sellers themselves like GT, but they were maintenence skills, they didn't do anythnig particularly special except learned/capitalised from/on competitor's failings and successes at the time (like the 3DO's price, Nintendo's poor 3rd party relations, Sega's marketing).
The PS2 had three massive advantages - momentum and BC from the highest selling console of all time in all territories, DVD playback at exactly the right time in history, and clearly top of the line hardware for at a great price ($300). Lightning in a bottle, and it powers on until this day because of it. Sony made all the right moves to keep momentum up throughout the generation, but the explosive start created what looks like a never to be reapeated environment.