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[gogogow]

I hope Sony stays in it, but they definitely have an uphill battle when their entire company is hurting financially like it is. One of their saving graces is that Japan will simply not buy a Microsoft game system and Nintendo does not compete directly with them in the same types of games. But can Japan's unwillingness to buy from Microsoft continue to keep Sony as a potential front runner?

What types of games?

 

[Busty]

I wonder what parts of the company they're planning on selling.

Rumours have been swirling for years that Japan wants to sell off Sony's media divisions. There was even chatter when Stringer was in charge and he was the media division's biggest fan.

Personally I think that Sony are nearing the end of the road with what they can do in the film/TV space. I think it all comes down to the foreign media ownership laws in countries like the US. Sony aren't able to buy/start any broadcast/cable channels because they are a Japanese company and as such their growth is limited unlike say a Time Warner which can expand it's channel portfolio as it likes.

And their efforts to get into the virtual MSO/broadband network space have been thwarted at every turn especially with Apple and Intel looming on the horizon with their own MSO networks as well.

Sony have a baseline profitability of about $1.5bn a year because their financial services division is just that profitable. The consumer and pro side is break even at best, it neither loses nor makes money. Without the non-cash charges of $5bn the bottom line wouldn't look so bad and really the only division that loses money is TVs and Kaz has pretty much said Sony will back out of TVs if they keep losing money in it.

If Sony manage to cut the TV losses they will have a baseline profitability of around $3bn a year, if they can't and need to cut it entirely they will take a one off charge of around $4bn to jettison the business but it cuts out $1.5bn worth of annual losses.

Other than that Sony are looking competitive in phones, and if they are going to make a Vita Phone then I expect their position to get even better as the hardware inside the Vita is pretty advanced and as Sony/Toshiba bring their own 28/32nm foundries online they will be able to control costs for the Vita SoC.

Finally, in order to properly compete, all Japanese electronics companies will have to consolidate. At Sony I would look at merging with Toshiba as there are a lot of synergies to be had. Toshiba have a stronger laptops division, but Sony Vaio is a stronger brand. Toshiba could exit TVs altogether as it is a big money loser for them, Toshiba would become the overnight market leader in image sensors and processors, Sony would gain access to cutting edge lithography tech to push it harder. From a business point of view, a merger between these two old rivals makes a lot of sense, but I'm not sure it would be palatable to the management as it would be a massive climbdown for both boards. Neither company is particularly profitable and Toshiba are going to have a massive loss associated with their buyout of Westinghouse Power as the demand for nuclear reactors has be destroyed since the Fukushima disaster.

What I would like to see is the Japanese government enabling a merger and then taking an interest in the merged company giving it $20-30bn worth of capital for investment so that they can properly compete with Samsung. It would be almost free for the Japanese government who borrow at just 1% a year and the investment would pay for itself with dividends paid out and with the rise in value that the shares would see. Right now the situation for Japanese industry is desperate and the government needs to step in with more initiatives like JDI Inc. If they don't I can see one of Panasonic, Sharp, Sony or Pioneer going bankrupt. Probably two, my guesses would be Sharp and Panasonic.

This was a great read. Very interesting.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

What types of games?

Successful ones.

 

[Graphics Horse]

What types of games?

4 player mascot fighting games.

 

[Averon]

Japanese business as a whole seems to be doing very badly. The strong yen certainly doesn't help. Actually the yen/dollar and yen/euro situation was improving recently, but they are now falling in the wrong direction again.

 

[Busty]

Successful ones.

Oh you........

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

So does this mean no pricecut for the PS3?

They are expecting PS3 + PS2 sales to be 16 million total next year.

PS2 will probably take at least 4 million of that chunk, leaving 12 million or so for the PS3.

I guess it's possible that they just expect that much of a sales drop next year. This gen is getting pretty late and Wii U will release this year, so maybe they're just being extra-conservative with those figures and they may assume a $50 price cut.

 

[magash]

4 player mascot fighting games.

I must admit that caught me of guard.lol

 

[gogogow]

Successful ones.

4 player mascot fighting games.

Haha, i'm surprised people think Nintendo only releases "non-games", "kiddie games", while the 3DS, which is on fire in Japan, has tons of core-games in the top 20.

 

[BurntPork]

So, a lot of people here think that the PSP + Vita number is way too high, yet back in the Nintendo FY2011 thread almost no one thought that Nintendo's 3DS forecast was crazy? Weird.

Anyway, this hopefully means that Sony has a plan on how to turn things around.

 

[BigDug13]

What types of games?

Playstation3's blockbuster hits and strongest sellers are not the same games as Nintendo's blockbuster hits and strongest sellers. Microsoft competes more directly on the same types of games with Sony. Most people who are seriously into gaming do not own just a Wii. They also own either a 360 and/or a PS3.

I'm not sure where your confusion comes from. Maybe next gen will be different, but this generation was pretty obvious.

People aren't clamoring to play COD, Gears Of War, Gpd Of War, Uncharted, LBP, Skyrim, Witcher 2, etc on Wii. People aren't clamoring to play Galaxy 1/2, NSMB Wii, Metroid, Zelda, etc on PS3 and 360.

Just because some third party games came out across all systems does not mean the Wii version was competing with the PS3 version.

 

[Kifimbo]

So, a lot of people here think that the PSP + Vita number is way too high, yet back in the Nintendo FY2011 thread almost no one thought that Nintendo's 3DS forecast was crazy? Weird.

Anyway, this hopefully means that Sony has a plan on how to turn things around.

Nintendo actually had popular games on the horizon (MK7 + SM3DL).

 

[Para bailar La Bomba]

If they do it, I expect a combined 32nm chip and externalised PSU with 20GB NAND for £149/$199, but really the cost of development probably outweigh the benefits if PS4 truly is coming in a year or less.

The big question that will determine this is whether they think PS3 will have the same staying power as the PS2. Certainly in emerging markets it will.

But because the difference between the PS3 -> PS4 will be smaller than the difference between PS2-> PS3, there's a stronger possibility they may cannibalize their own market.

Yen is a safehouse currency. When the world economy turns to shit the Yen always strengthens, when the world economy gets better the Yen weakens. Yen is counter-cyclical, which makes for tough going in industry.

Well I got three words for that: learn to hedge.

 

[NemesisPrime]

PS3 being number 1 bestselling console (either home or handheld) is surprising. Thought 3DS sold more, hmm......

Smoke and mirrors...

 

[massoluk]

So, a lot of people here think that the PSP + Vita number is way too high, yet back in the Nintendo FY2011 thread almost no one thought that Nintendo's 3DS forecast was crazy? Weird.

Anyway, this hopefully means that Sony has a plan on how to turn things around.

Nintendo could back it up with sound reasoning.
Sony reason is "'Cause we said so"

 

[BurntPork]

Nintendo actually had popular games on the horizon (MK7 + SM3DL).

Actually, I'm taking about the 18 million forecast for the current fiscal year. Granted, last year's was also stupid and I called that they miss it right from the start.

Anyway, both Nintendo and Sony are a bit too optimistic for this year imo.

 

[BigDug13]

Yen is a safehouse currency. When the world economy turns to shit the Yen always strengthens, when the world economy gets better the Yen weakens. Yen is counter-cyclical, which makes for tough going in industry.

It's really not. 10 years ago you could get 120 yen for a dollar. 5 years ago when the world economy was BETTER than 10 years ago, you could only get 100 yen for a dollar, today the ATM gave me a rate of 77 yen per dollar when I pulled out some yen.

Long term, it hasn't exactly followed the cycle you suggest. In 1984 you could get 247 yen per dollar.

 

[massoluk]

Actually, I'm taking about the 18 million forecast for the current fiscal year. Granted, last year's was also stupid and I called that they miss it right from the start.

Anyway, both Nintendo and Sony are a bit too optimistic for this year imo.

Hmm? A lot of people called them on that one too.

 

[BurntPork]

Hmm? A lot of people called them on that one too.

Did they? Maybe I'm just mistaken.

 

[Yalstromo]

Smoke and mirrors...

?

 

[Pandaman]

The "Sony Playstation" brand is no longer the icon it once was and everyone knows it. I loved my PS1, PS2, PS3, and PSP, but today is a different game than 1995 with much more aggressive competition hitting home runs.

Gone are the days of squeezing SEGA out of the industry and competing with Nintendo stuck in cartridge-land.

I hope Sony stays in it, but they definitely have an uphill battle when their entire company is hurting financially like it is. One of their saving graces is that Japan will simply not buy a Microsoft game system and Nintendo does not compete directly with them in the same types of games. But can Japan's unwillingness to buy from Microsoft continue to keep Sony as a potential front runner?

Sony will stay in it as long as their is a Sony.

Can you think of any other Sony hardware brand with the install base of playstation? the worst that can happen is they retool it into some hyper safe fisherprice tier shit to guaruntee they dont lose money while still exploiting the brands pull.

 

[Kuramu]

 

[zomgbbqftw]

It's really not. 10 years ago you could get 120 yen for a dollar. 5 years ago when the world economy was BETTER than 10 years ago, you could only get 100 yen for a dollar, today the ATM gave me a rate of 77 yen per dollar when I pulled out some yen.

Long term, it hasn't exactly followed the cycle you suggest. In 1984 you could get 247 yen per dollar.

In 2007 The yen was trading at 120 to the dollar which was the peak of the world economy. During the time prior to the Asian crash Yen was weak, then it strengthened. Yen always strengthens during world economic turmoil, take a look at the aftermath of the tsunami.

 

[CadetMahoney]

Actually, I'm taking about the 18 million forecast for the current fiscal year. Granted, last year's was also stupid and I called that they miss it right from the start.

Anyway, both Nintendo and Sony are a bit too optimistic for this year imo.

This is definitely a thread to bookmark for the revisions. Seems too predictable unless theres some megaton price drop + new AAA titles up their sleeve.

 

[Valkyr Junkie]

Japanese business as a whole seems to be doing very badly. The strong yen certainly doesn't help. Actually the yen/dollar and yen/euro situation was improving recently, but they are now falling in the wrong direction again.

Pretty much. This is hardly doom and gloom for Sony since every large Japanese electronics company is going to announce record losses for this fiscal year. Hell, I think Panasonic is going to announce losses in the $9-$11B range.

 

[Lynn616]

So does this mean no pricecut for the PS3?

They are expecting PS3 + PS2 sales to be 16 million total next year.

PS2 will probably take at least 4 million of that chunk, leaving 12 million or so for the PS3.

I guess it's possible that they just expect that much of a sales drop next year. This gen is getting pretty late and Wii U will release this year, so maybe they're just being extra-conservative with those figures and they may assume a $50 price cut.

PS2 shipped 4.1 in 2011 so I don`t see it shipping 4 in 2012. Maybe around 3 million. So, 13 million PS3 for 2012. That would be down around 1 Million units compared to this past year. If they planned a price drop on the PS3 I would think they would at least expect to stay flat. I don`t think they plan on a price drop for the PS3 this year.

 

[Tylahedras]

Perhaps Monster Hunter Vita is inbound?

 

[matmanx1]

As a Vita owner and a guy who's spending more time with his handheld gaming systems these days than ever before I am very interested in how they think they are going to get to that 16m PSP+PSV number over the next year. There's obviously got to be something pretty major in the works if they think that's an attainable number and I want to know what it is.

Price drop for the Vita is pretty much a given. One of the reasons Sony went with the off the shelf parts for the Vita was so that the component prices would drop quickly and give them room to move the price of the unit. I'm thinking TGS will see price drops for both the PS3 and the PSV for a variety of reasons.

 

[iamshadowlark]

So Sony did end up with more PS3s sold in the FY than MS/Nintendo. Kudos. It still makes me wonder why some people actually believe there won't be a sucessor.

Financially, they really have some work to do, even though the loss is not as big as the OP suggests. Sony TVs are dead. They probably have more divisions too that need to hit the cutting board.

Fix it Kaz.

 

[jcm]

It's not, unless you consider Sony's FY to be the time frame in which we determine these things. Normal people tend to use calendar years but I guess if we are using fiscal years then we will have a new #1 in 2 months when Microsoft reports their end of fiscal year numbers.(#1 will be 3DS)

You think normal people have a preference as to which arbitrary time slice to use when comparing the worldwide sales of video game consoles?

So Sony did end up with more PS3s sold in the FY than MS/Nintendo. Kudos. It still makes me wonder why some people actually believe there won't be a successor.

Because some people don't know what they're talking about.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Actually, I'm taking about the 18 million forecast for the current fiscal year. Granted, last year's was also stupid and I called that they miss it right from the start.

Anyway, both Nintendo and Sony are a bit too optimistic for this year imo.

Both are going to miss their targets imo. Sony's going to miss on both PSP (~6m) and Vita (~10m). I think Nintendo will actually exceed their modest DS projection though with the US price cuts driving it.

 

[KageMaru]

That's a huge loss, but I think we all expected that. Really though, they had good ps3 sales for the fiscal year so there is some positive news in all of this.

Will be interesting to see if they can reach their goals for PSV, even though they are now grouping it together with the PSP =/

 

[tinfoilhatman]

So glad I don't work for a company with such delusional and unrealistic leadership.

 

[D.Lo]

Playstation3's blockbuster hits and strongest sellers are not the same games as Nintendo's blockbuster hits and strongest sellers. Microsoft competes more directly on the same types of games with Sony. Most people who are seriously into gaming do not own just a Wii. They also own either a 360 and/or a PS3.

I'm not sure where your confusion comes from. Maybe next gen will be different, but this generation was pretty obvious.

People aren't clamoring to play COD, Gears Of War, Gpd Of War, Uncharted, LBP, Skyrim, Witcher 2, etc on Wii. People aren't clamoring to play Galaxy 1/2, NSMB Wii, Metroid, Zelda, etc on PS3 and 360.

Just because some third party games came out across all systems does not mean the Wii version was competing with the PS3 version.

All I'm hearing is the western gaming press' anti-Wii echo chamber.

Early in the generation the types of games you describe sold better on the Wii than the PS3 (CoD3 Wii outsold the PS3 version despite being a PS2 port, RE4Wii and Red Steel sold great etc). 3rd parties missed the boat on the Wii, and once they shit the bed with Partyz Gamez there was no coming back.

Nintendo used to have all they currently have as well as everything else (including Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Castlevania, all Capcom's big games etc). If that somehow comes back to them (a big if, it requires 3rd parties to give WiiU a fair shake), Sony will have NOTHING left. Uncharted and GoW are vastly overstated sales-wise, and GT's time seems to have passed.

I think there'll be a PS4, but if the WiiU works out there may not be a PS5. And Nintendo's track record is looking good right now, 3 best selling consoles in a row now.

 

[ascii42]

And Nintendo's track record is looking good right now, 3 best selling consoles in a row now.

Huh?

 

[Combichristoffersen]

Huh?

DS, Wii, 3DS.

 

[Burai]

Sony will stay in it as long as their is a Sony.

Can you think of any other Sony hardware brand with the install base of playstation? the worst that can happen is they retool it into some hyper safe fisherprice tier shit to guaruntee they dont lose money while still exploiting the brands pull.

Walkman? Discman?

And then MP3 happened and consumers left them behind. Walkman is now some half-assed brand they put onto candybar phones.

The risk "PlayStation" runs is that we're entering a new generation. Everything starts from scratch and that install base will be worth nothing if people don't buy into Vita and PS4.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Huh?

DS, Wii, 3DS. "Consoles" used loosely, we'll have to see if Wii U continues the trend.

 

[iamshadowlark]

All I'm hearing is the western gaming press' anti-Wii echo chamber.

Early in the generation the types of games you describe sold better on the Wii than the PS3 (CoD3 Wii outsold the PS3 version despite being a PS2 port, RE4Wii and Red Steel sold great etc). 3rd parties missed the boat on the Wii, and once they shit the bed with Partyz Gamez there was no coming back.

Nintendo used to have all they currently have as well as everything else (including Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Castlevania, all Capcom's big games etc). If that somehow comes back to them (a big if, it requires 3rd parties to give WiiU a fair shake), Sony will have NOTHING left. Uncharted and GoW are vastly overstated sales-wise, and GT's time seems to have passed.

I think there'll be a PS4, but if the WiiU works out there may not be a PS5. And Nintendo's track record is looking good right now, 3 best selling consoles in a row now.

I wouldn't really call the Wii a best-selling console(even though it technically is) The Wii has had a very faddish shelf life and its sales are in no way comparable to earlier on in the cycle. I could definitely see one of the HD twins surpassing it when all is said and done. Also IIRC COD3 was the only major third party that sold more than the PS3.

I think you have the market all wrong. Nintendo isn't competing with Sony at all, they are in their own lane. There is nothing Nintendo really can do at this point with the Wii-U that would knock Sony out of the race especially considering the PS3s performance as of late. Sony is in a fine position for next-gen.

 

[D.Lo]

DS, Wii, 3DS. "Consoles" used loosely, we'll have to see if Wii U continues the trend.

Semantics aside, Nintendo has won or is easily winning their last three hardware head to head races against Sony. And that was with 3rd parties banking absolutely everything on PSP and then PS3 ahead of DS and Wii. Now Sony's new consoles are coming off the heels of losing consoles rather than the mega-winning PS2, and you can see everyone's lack of confidence in the Vita, it's the exact same strategy that has now failed twice.

The absolute freak luck of a medium selling PS2 game (Monster Hunter) ported to PSP becoming a near Pokemon-esque cultural phenomenon in Japan was a massive wild card too, that saved the PSP from a much earlier irrelevancy. That can happen at any time, anything is possible - as some have mentioned, maybe portable CoD or something. More likely something else IMO, it honestly seems like a luck thing to me, who knew GTA or CoD would take off mid-series the way they did? And what if the thing that takes off is something Microsoft can buy?

I wouldn't really call the Wii a best-selling console(even though it technically is)

Uh...

The Wii has had a very faddish shelf life

Yeah that four year fad. With four first party games are each sold over 25 million copies.

I think you have the market all wrong. Nintendo isn't competing with Sony at all, they are in their own lane. There is nothing Nintendo really can do at this point with the Wii-U that would knock Sony out of the race especially considering the PS3s performance as of late. Sony is in a fine position for next-gen.

They really are not. What's your take on the Vita's performance and market position? The PS4 will be in the same position as the Vita except with bottomless-pit Microsoft pinching them from above as well as Nintendo from below.

 

[saichi]

Btw Hirai said that they shipped 1.8m Vitas last year and for 2012 the intended volumes are around 10m Vitas and 6m PSPs.
He also said that they will reinforce Vita software because software is key to sucess and that titles will be announced one after the other.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-05-10-sony-earnings-call-reveals-worldwide-ps-vita-sales

600K for March? VITA must be selling really well in Europe.

Also, I love this information.

"Extrapolated, that's 1.8 million Vita sales a quarter, which isn't bad - the 3DS managed 2 million from January to March this year."

VITA sold 400K in Dec in Japan but whatever works.

 

[nintendors]

Sony will stay in it as long as their is a Sony.

Can you think of any other Sony hardware brand with the install base of playstation? the worst that can happen is they retool it into some hyper safe fisherprice tier shit to guaruntee they dont lose money while still exploiting the brands pull.

maybe then Sony would still be on the safe side with 12 BILLION DOLLAHZ IN CASH & NO DEPT !

Spoiler

yes I've read u like an open book

 

[Krev]

They really are not. What's your take on the Vita's performance and market position? The PS4 will be in the same position as the Vita except with bottomless-pit Microsoft pinching them from above as well as Nintendo from below.

Not to mention that in the next generation all three will also have Apple pinching them to an extent from...uh...below? Or is it above?

 

[Combichristoffersen]

Not to mention that in the next generation all three will also have Apple pinching them to an extent from...uh...below? Or is it above?

Apple will coil around them like a python and squeeze them all simultaneously.

I'm really surprised by the clairified 6m PSP projection, even moreso than the 10m Vita projection (which presumably includes the 1.8m for this year).

Last year PSP was still beasting in Japan with tons of huge releases and Europe rebounded with the new E1000 model. This year neither of those factors are in place to push sales and we've already seen Japan collapse to some degree (less than half the sales YOY). Where exactly are Sony expecting to ship 6m PSPs?

Narnia and Fantasia.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I'm really surprised by the clairified 6m PSP projection, even moreso than the 10m Vita projection (which presumably includes the 1.8m for this year).

Last year PSP was still beasting in Japan with tons of huge releases and Europe rebounded with the new E1000 model. This year neither of those factors are in place to push sales and we've already seen Japan collapse to some degree (less than half the sales YOY). Where exactly are Sony expecting to ship 6m PSPs?

 

[D.Lo]

Not to mention that in the next generation all three will also have Apple pinching them to an extent from...uh...below? Or is it above?

Apple's really only in the mobile space right now though. If they go big in TV gaming Nintendo is the most vulnerable.

In handhelds that I'd say they're pinching sort-of from above since ipads cost a lot more, but also from the side because you need an iphone/ipad for other things (negating the up-front cost for gaming to some extent because you already have it) and can just have a game or two as well.

But honestly Apple seem to prefer to create new markets to entering existing ones. But it's still dollars pulled away I guess.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

No Vita sales numbers? Hmmm.

16 million forecast for PSP+PSV seems way too high. The 3DS didn't even make that target.

Hasn't Sony had 15 million forecasted just for the PS3 almost 4 years in a row?

 

[iamshadowlark]

Yeah that four year fad. With four first party games are each sold over 25 million copies.

And how is it doing these days?

They really are not. What's your take on the Vita's performance and market position? The PS4 will be in the same position as the Vita except with bottomless-pit Microsoft pinching them from above as well as Nintendo from below.

Vita is doing terribly but Idk what that has todo with the PS3 or how they are comparable at all. And how is Microsoft pinching "from above"? If anything Sony/MS have been neck-and-neck this generation. And both of them can finish ahead of the Wii.

Really please do explain how Sony is in a bad position going into next-gen?

 

[Taurus]

600K for March? VITA must be selling really well in Europe.

Also, I love this information.

"Extrapolated, that's 1.8 million Vita sales a quarter, which isn't bad - the 3DS managed 2 million from January to March this year."

VITA sold 400K in Dec in Japan but whatever works.

Vita's January to March includes its fu*king launch period in US and EU, the two largest market areas in the world.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Walkman? Discman?

And then MP3 happened and consumers left them behind. Walkman is now some half-assed brand they put onto candybar phones.

The risk "PlayStation" runs is that we're entering a new generation. Everything starts from scratch and that install base will be worth nothing if people don't buy into Vita and PS4.

The MP3 thing was Sony's own fault. Sony music wouldn't let them support MP3 and they did their own format. So in a nut shell, Sony music damaged Sony electronics. They protected one division by hurting another.