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Sony, Microsoft, Valve, and Roblox: Who will be platform king?

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
Minecraft does not sell hardware or boost platforms.



CoD is multiplatform for at least a decade since signing the contract.



WoW does not sell hardware or boost platforms.




No clue how well a modern Elder's Scrolls will play and it isn't likely to drop for another 5+ years...



None of these games push hardware or platforms. You know this, but you're ignoring that reality for... reasons...

Halo Infinite was not a success. Doom hasn't been a major FPS in decades even with Doom Eternal. Gears of War hasn't been relevant since Epic left the franchise. Diablo isn't going to come out with a new game in 5+ years. Overwatch is already dying... Fallout is also YEARS away...
Huge shifting of goalposts here.

If you want to say Microsoft doesn't have exclusive software fine, but you can not say they have an original content disadvantage. The ABK acquisition arguably put them in a tier by themselves at the top.
 
Huge shifting of goalposts here.

If you want to say Microsoft doesn't have exclusive software fine, but you can not say they have an original content disadvantage. The ABK acquisition arguably put them in a tier by themselves at the top.

No goalposts have shifted here, you're just not paying attention.

This was my first response to you

Microsoft has essentially no IP of value outside of ABK and Zenimax, and the combination of ABK and Zenimax does not put Microsoft on the same level as Sony, Nintendo, or even T2.

Sony, Nintendo, and T2 have IP that they can consistently churn out to push hardware. CoD would absolutely count, but they can't take it exclusive for 10 years. None of the rest of the. catalog is immediate or consistent, which reduces the value.

Marvel's Spider-Man came out in 2018, and we have seen Miles Morales and Spider-Man 2 up to 2023. That's 3 games in 5 years. Zenimax can't pump out Fallouts or Elder's Scrolls that fast. Spider-Man pushes hardware more and it also pushes platform.

Not going to go back and forth with you on this. I know who and what you are.
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
No goalposts have shifted here, you're just not paying attention.

This was my first response to you
And that response was wrong. The ABK + Minecraft IP is much more valuable than PlayStations biggest IP...it's just not exclusive to a box...though neither is PlayStations really.
Sony, Nintendo, and T2 have IP that they can consistently churn out to push hardware. CoD would absolutely count, but they can't take it exclusive for 10 years. None of the rest of the. catalog is immediate or consistent, which reduces the value.
Yeah, I'm fine if you're talking about exclusivity. You didn't make that clear in your original comment though.
Marvel's Spider-Man came out in 2018, and we have seen Miles Morales and Spider-Man 2 up to 2023. That's 3 games in 5 years. Zenimax can't pump out Fallouts or Elder's Scrolls that fast. Spider-Man pushes hardware more and it also pushes platform.
Call of Duty sells 20 million copies every year (plus MTX). Spiderman is a small fry compared to the juggernaut that is CoD.
Not going to go back and forth with you on this. I know who and what you are.
This didn't end well for you so I get it.
 

Pallas

Member
Fortnite.

Everything will be Fortnite eventually. Xbox and PlayStation will just be a box to play Fortnite on.
Not sure if you’re joking or not but you aren’t too far from the truth on this. Everything Epic is doing with Fortnite is making it a Roblox competitor.
 

od-chan

Gold Member
I wonder if Roblox can keep the momentum though. Like Steam definitely seems like a viable long term business. Always a demand for a good store front with games and sales and such. Fortnite has Epic (or epic has fortnite) and while they're kinda regarded I at least somewhat see them staying alive, and it's nice to have it appear like Valve has some competition.

Roblox seems like a fad though, to my ignorant old eyes. I just looked it up, they basically became big during covid (player numbers spiked first by like 40% in march 2020, then again and again during covid). They're still growing and maybe they're here to stay, but I'm not sure how definitive this is yet.

e: maybe MS will buy them :3
 
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Flintty

Member
I wonder if Roblox can keep the momentum though. Like Steam definitely seems like a viable long term business. Always a demand for a good store front with games and sales and such. Fortnite has Epic (or epic has fortnite) and while they're kinda regarded I at least somewhat see them staying alive, and it's nice to have it appear like Valve has some competition.

Roblox seems like a fad though, to my ignorant old eyes. I just looked it up, they basically became big during covid (player numbers spiked first by like 40% in march 2020, then again and again during covid). They're still growing and maybe they're here to stay, but I'm not sure how definitive this is yet.

e: maybe MS will buy them :3

I wouldn’t call Roblox a fad. It has survived two (maybe 3?) console generations. My kids grew up with it and two of them (late teens and early twenties) still use it as a platform and make money from it. That said, I wouldn’t have expected Roblox to be part of the discussion in the podcast because it’s a different kind of platform to console/PC game distribution.

Regarding Xbox IPs, it’s an incredibly rich library and if MS actually bothered their arses to make games the same quality that Sony puts out, I expect there would be a resurgence of popularity for them. Like, if they dropped a 10/10 Halo game tomorrow, it would be huge. But they won’t because they can’t. And I’m saying that as a long term Xbox fan.
 
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od-chan

Gold Member
I wouldn’t call Roblox a fad. It has survived two (maybe 3?) console generations. My kids grew up with it and two of them (late teens and early twenties) still use it as a platform and make money from it. That said, I wouldn’t have expected Roblox to be part of the discussion in the podcast because it’s a different kind of platform to console/PC game distribution.

Bad choice of words on my part. Yeah, the game itself isn't a fad, the popularity it's currently at might be though. See how it's actually reasonable to include Roblox itself amongst the likes of Sony, MS and Valve now. That wasn't the case in 2019 and I'm just wondering if it'll be the case in 2029, while I'm reasonably sure about MS/Sony/Valve still being at the top in some form.
 

yurinka

Member
PS is the only platform with all time high record numbers and in a multi year growing trend on:
  • Console active userbase
  • Console game revenue
  • AAA multi game subs revenue
  • Gaming accesories revenue
  • Movie/tv show adaptations revenue
SIE also became in a few years one of the top grossing PC publishers with a huge multi year growth, soon will be in a position of being able to open their own PSN PC store including there 3rd parties too and maybe becoming the first serious competitor for Steam in PC.

SIE's growth reached a point that depending on the quarter or year they are the top grossing gaming company of the year, passing Tentcent gaming revenue. If they continue that growth soon SIE will be consistently the top 1 every year and quarter.

To be fair, that 132M users from Steam is data from 2021.

Back in 2021 the CCU peak was 27M, today it peaked at almost 38M, same goes for the in-game players peak, from 7,8M in 2021 to 12,5M this months.

That's a near 40% growth in CCU and a 60% growth in ingame players. If you add a 40% to that 132M number it'd be over 180M monthly users, a 60% would be over 200M already.

Not sure about Roblox' growth numbers yearly, i assume they are very big too, as for PS ones they are quite stagnant since 2020, last number was 116M , down from 123M in December as you said.
Console MAU fluctuate each quarter, being the Christmas one the highest one.

PS MAU kept growing and are at the all time record for a console brand, achieving 123M the most recent Christmas quarter. Around 50% of the PS userbase are still on PS4 and around half of the PS5 users are new to PS.

I agree on A, but how are traditional games market not growing exactly?
The total gaming market revenue (this is including mobile, PC, console and arcade) kept growing during 50 years until the covid peak of 2021.

In 2022 and 2023 remained flat, so investors and publishers are worried that it could have peaked. That, combined with the fact that every generation the AAA games get more expensive, the huge inflation and economical crisis and economical uncertainity (apparently there's a more than likely upcoiming economical collapse of multiple main western economies) in the west to make made them more conservative trying to reduce costs to increase their profitability, plus to focus more on less games that they consider are more likely to be successful. Some investors moved away to other markets with higher growth like IA.

That's the reason of many "recent" layoffs, studio closures and game cancellations.

Microsoft has essentially no IP of value outside of ABK and Zenimax,
ABK and Zenimax have very powerful stuff like CoD, Candy Crash, Diablo, Warcraft and Doom, plus potential in some -right now almost empty shells of former glory not at their highest level- Starcraft, Overwatch, Elder Scrolls or Fallout, which could be resurrected to bring them back to their former glory.

Outside them MS has Minecraft, Forza Horizon (in great shape but their whole team of leads left) and Flight Simulator, plus former glories/empty shells that could be resurrected like Halo, Gears, Forza, Fable, Crash, Spyro/Skylanders who could be also reworked and brought back to their former glory.

So they several several key IPs at a top level (CoD, Candy Crash and Minecraft at the top one) plus many other dormant/former glory IPs with potential to be resurrected and be super successful again even if the current state/performance of their team makes it look very difficult to achieve.

MS may be short of exclusives, but their multiplatform approach and huge amount of top IPs make them the most powerful publisher (different than platform holder) and show a big potential for their future as publisher which seems at the same difficult due to the state of many of their key IPs and teams and the lack of very successful new IPs in the recent generations.

But as platform holder, they are moving away their focus on their console abandoning and killing it, to focus instead on becoming a multiplatform publisher giving less atention to their platform holder side with the idea of turning their platform into a multiplatform store/platform with presence in console, PC and mobile.
 
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Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
The people who want to play 10 different games a year are shrinking. The people who want to play one or two games a year are booming.

It's crazy that people still don't see this.

Other than deep nerds I dont actually know anyone who has ever wanted to play 10 or more games.

Even in the past, we had like 4 seasons of games, and generally, the blockbusters were towards the end, but some gems released here and there.

I dont think its cost/money......its time.........no one(streamers notwithstanding) can play every game that comes out so you pick the four usually one of them is a late year blockbuster and maybe one or two during the year.

And ive been doing this a long time.
 
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