Basing things on where we are in 2025 and the latest rumors for next gen:
- Nintendo will probably be in the best position in 2028 just going by the fact that Switch 2 is set be the biggest console launch in history based on preorder numbers. 2028 would be 3 Years into the Switch 2 life and no doubt by that point they will have at least a few classics. Hardware wise, they will probably have a Switch 2 lite out by then, maybe an OLED model as well. Unless Nintendo royally fucks up between now and then, I think they will almost certainly be in a great spot in 2028. That being said, I do think 2028 will be the peak for Nintendo for this generation. After that, I can see them beginning to decline as more of the consumer interest moves to the true next generation systems and other handhelds... At least until the next Nintendo system comes up.
- Sony will probably be runner up. The PS5 has done very well despite the fact that this generation has been so lackluster. They can ride the success of the PS5 into the PS6 which should be out by 2028. The major challenge for them will be getting all of their 1st parties in order to deliver games that people actually want. This generation has been a blood bath for far too many studios due to way too many bad choices. The addition of a new handheld will also give them a boost as long as it doesn't require much dedicated development time.
- I suspect Microsoft will get their next-gen system out first which may or may not help them... If they can show a significant boost over the PS5 Pro, maybe that will generate enough interest to give them a head start. They have lost a lot of mind share market during this generation. I can see them leaning more into making Xbox a service rather than a home console. When it comes to the hardware side, if they go the Steam route and work with several OEMs, that could also give them a unique advantage since new Xbox consoles with more power (or better value) could come at any time rather than waiting for Microsoft to release a "Pro" system or jump into the next generation.
I think the bigger question is where will the gaming industry as a whole be in 2028? Much of the studio closures and hardships that hit the gaming industry so hard these past few years has come down to developers no longer making games that appeal to the very gamers who got them where they are today! Can these companies finally start delivering what the fans want? Can we have a new generation that actually has new ideas or will AAA games become what big Hollywood is today - nothing more than sequels, remakes and generic ideas? Perhaps AA games will be the new "thing". In fact we have already seen games like Expedition 33 and Wukong spark much more excitement in gamers than the majority of larger budget AAA releases this generation.
