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[AZ2002]

Predictions and estimations aren't facts, however you want to spin it.

this is not a prediction.this is a forecast from Sony chief Financial Officer that was told in a conference for Sony investors and that's why the market reacted to that and people want to buy Sony stock again which caused the rise in Sony stock prices as they are bouncing back.you know companies have professionals financial analyst not heretics but believe what you like

 

[Opiate]

Ouch!! Doesn't sound like Sony has the funds to make Ps4 as powerful as gaf believes. Gonna be an interesting gen. Sony is in a bad spot.

Making it powerful is not the problem -- look at the Vita, as a simple example.

The problem is selling that powerful system at a significant (50+ dollar) loss.

 

[Clear]

Does not compute.

I'm illustrating the difference between Mindshare and Brand Awareness.

The former is a media construct, the latter is an indicator of actual market penetration based on consumer uptake.

The numbers speak for themselves.

 

[jcm]

this is not a prediction .this is a forecast

prediction |priˈdikSHən| noun a thing predicted; a forecast:

forecast |ˈfôrˌkast| noun a prediction or estimate of future events, esp. coming weather or a financial trend.

 

[NIGHT-]

Making it powerful is not the problem -- look at the Vita, as a simple example.

The problem is selling that powerful system at a significant (50+ dollar) loss.

I have a feeling that Vita in general is gonna be a huge mistake for them

 

[Taurus]

this is not a prediction.this is a forecast from Sony chief Financial Officer that was told in a conference for Sony investors and that's why the market reacted to that and people want to buy Sony stock again which caused the rise in Sony stock prices as they are bouncing back.you know companies have professionals financial analyst not heretics but believe what you like

Didn't they forecast profit earlier for this quarter? But reported terrible losses. What makes you think they get it right this time other than your sincere hope? Nothing.

 

[JWong]

Sony should consider losing more money next quarter: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SNE

It's like Nintendo. Bad news, stocks go up. Good news, stocks go down.

 

[AZ2002]

well forecasts are just forecasts... but they actually made $300mil in Q3 without SLCD/SE writeoffs in the books, which is important thing to note here.

Didn't they forecast profit earlier for this quarter? But reported terrible losses. What makes you think they get it right this time other than your sincere hope? Nothing.

exactly the total of the LCD write off,earthquake,flood all equal $2.2 billion dollar and that's the majority (%80) of their reported loss.and as the TV business cost them $3 billion dollar loss but measures have already been taken to halve it (selling plants,... etc) you can see why they will report a profit next year easily

 

[Black Lawn Finale]

Making it powerful is not the problem -- look at the Vita, as a simple example.

The problem is selling that powerful system at a significant (50+ dollar) loss.

I believe that Sony will have to come with something innovative going into this next generation to differentiate themselves from the next Xbox and Wii U. Price will always play a factor in sales but having innovation certainly won't hurt alongside a comfortable price. The worth of the system itself is going to be a big factor.

I have a feeling that Vita in general is gonna be a huge mistake for them

Judging by previous posts you've made, you already had your mind set on that from the beginning.

 

[NemesisPrime]

its not just optimism but facts.they will be profitable next year

It actually is very easy to be profitable... cute 1/3 of your workforce and drop a lot of products. The trick is getting profitable without doing that. We will see... I don't see it happening atm.

 

[Taurus]

exactly the total of the LCD write off,earthquake,flood all equal $2.2 billion dollar and that's the majority (%80) of their reported loss.and as the TV business cost them $3 billion dollar loss but measures have already been taken to halve it (selling plants,... etc) you can see why they will report a profit next year easily

You should really check the poster's tag that you quoted (before me).

 

[Shiggy]

exactly they are already saved and there is no need for bailing out crap talk and without those factors they will return to black next FY.check Sony CFO comments above forecast operating profit 2012/2013= $2.6 billion dollar

Is the Tita...Costa Cord...err...PS Vita already factored in?

 

[CrazyDude]

It actually is very easy to be profitable... cute 1/3 of your workforce and drop a lot of products. The trick is getting profitable without doing that. We will see... I don't see it happening atm.

So making your workforce more cute will result in more profit? It's so crazy that it might actually work.

 

[AZ2002]

prediction |priˈdikSHən| noun a thing predicted; a forecast:

forecast |ˈfôrˌkast| noun a prediction or estimate of future events, esp. coming weather or a financial trend.

oh come on those forecast numbers are not pulled from the financial analysts asses they are based on numbers and facts.check my above posts and easily see without financial background how they will

 

[Opiate]

I believe that Sony will have to come with something innovative going into this next generation to differentiate themselves from the next Xbox and Wii U. Price will always play a factor in sales but having innovation certainly won't hurt alongside a comfortable price. The worth of the system itself is going to be a big factor.

I think this would help significantly. A unique, distinctive platform is an easier sell at break even value (or when sold at a profit).

 

[Jhriad]

Making it powerful is not the problem -- look at the Vita, as a simple example.

The problem is selling that powerful system at a significant (50+ dollar) loss.

Are they selling the Vita at a loss? I remember reading the analysis of the production cost of a Vita putting it in the sub $200 range. It didn't include marketing or distribution but I figured they were at least breaking even on the thing.

 

[Opiate]

I believe that Sony will have to come with something innovative going into this next generation to differentiate themselves from the next Xbox and Wii U. Price will always play a factor in sales but having innovation certainly won't hurt alongside a comfortable price. The worth of the system itself is going to be a big factor.

I think this would help significantly. A unique, distinctive platform is an easier sell at break even value (or when sold at a profit). Hopefully Sony can accomplish this goal.

 

[Kazerei]

In the future please make use of this image. Thankyou.

 

[Massa]

I have a feeling that Vita in general is gonna be a huge mistake for them

Which do you think was a huge mistake: releasing a handheld system in todays climate, when portable devices are more popular than ever? Or was the huge mistake using off the shelf parts that will let them reach profitability earlier than any other console they've done before?

 

[AZ2002]

You should really check the poster's tag that you quoted (before me).

that's funny i didn't notice it but its not true on this topic

 

[gofreak]

I have a feeling that Vita in general is gonna be a huge mistake for them

The point stands whether that's true or not though. If Vita did end up a huge flop, it at least won't have cost them a huge amount. They've been able to assemble a powerful machine without spilling huge amounts of red ink on R&D and (so far anyway), without massive per unit losses.

The assumption that Sony not being able to make a PS3-scale r&d investment == Sony not being able to make a powerful machine is flawed. They can design a powerful machine without the kinds of investments they made for PS3, just as MS and Nintendo already have done (or could do, as the case may be). You don't have to invent your own semiconductors to do that, as Sony was basically doing for PS3.

That said, if Sony wanted to go that route again, if they wanted to make it a priority, they probably would have the money to do it. But it would be extremely risky and is extremely unnecessary and they've been plainly clear that it's not going to happen. 'Not invented here' syndrome no longer exists at SCE as far as semiconductors go.

 

[Cheebo]

Which do you think was a huge mistake: releasing a handheld system in todays climate, when portable devices are more popular than ever? Or was the huge mistake using off the shelf parts that will let them reach profitability earlier than any other console they've done before?

Personally Sony's biggest mistake is releasing within the launch window of iPad 3 in America. That was downright insane. Yes, one is a tablet the other is a handheld game system but they both appeal to the same sort of early adopter tech types. iPad 3 is clearly going to suck up all the media attention and hype. They should have got it out here in the fall at all costs, releasing it at nearly the exact same time as the newest verision of the most popular (non-phone) handheld device was not wise.

 

[AZ2002]

Are they selling the Vita at a loss? I remember reading the analysis of the production cost of a Vita putting it in the sub $200 range. It didn't include marketing or distribution but I figured they were at least breaking even on the thing.

yes BOM= $160 USD.no huge R&D cost,so with the 3G SKU and the mem cards they are more than profitable on each unit already.and the material cost will go down more in the next 6 months

 

[H_Prestige]

Personally Sony's biggest mistake is releasing within the launch window of iPad 3 in America. That was downright insane. Yes, one is a tablet the other is a handheld game system but they both appeal to the same sort of early adopter tech types. iPad 3 is clearly going to suck up all the media attention and hype. They should have got it out here in the fall at all costs, releasing it at nearly the exact same time as the newest verision of the most popular (non-phone) handheld device was not wise.

The biggest mistake was not securing big Japanese franchises. I admit, it's still a bit early, but right now their biggest title there is FFX, which isn't even exclusive.

 

[Father_Brain]

Which do you think was a huge mistake: releasing a handheld system in todays climate, when portable devices are more popular than ever? Or was the huge mistake using off the shelf parts that will let them reach profitability earlier than any other console they've done before?

If they launched it without an actual software strategy in place - and it's too soon to say for sure, but nothing announced for the platform to date indicates otherwise - then Sony probably won't be able to turn sales around and they'd have been better off exiting the handheld business, yes.

 

[JWong]

Personally Sony's biggest mistake is releasing within the launch window of iPad 3 in America. That was downright insane. Yes, one is a tablet the other is a handheld game system but they both appeal to the same sort of early adopter tech types. iPad 3 is clearly going to suck up all the media attention and hype. They should have got it out here in the fall at all costs, releasing it at nearly the exact same time as the newest verision of the most popular (non-phone) handheld device was not wise.

iPhone 4S certainly didn't have that much buzz when it came out. Apple needs to make radical changes for it to matter, and traditionally, Apple doesn't.

 

[Kung Fu Grip]

So kaz says he's aiming for the #1 spot in gaming. Am i late gaf?

 

[Cheebo]

iPhone 4S certainly didn't have that much buzz when it came out. Apple needs to make radical changes for it to matter, and traditionally, Apple doesn't.

Did you just say 4S didn't have much buzz...what? Did you see how well it did? Biggest iPhone launch by a huge margin. Apple stores had lines every time new shipments of 4S's came in for months. iPad 3's will likely be far larger than 1 or 2's launches were. And those will be people spending $500+ they might otherwise have got a Vita with.

 

[Clear]

PS2 - 77.05% (154 million)

See this is typical of the distorted reporting I'm talking about.

It looks really bad because its including over 50m in global shipments logged since 2005.

By selectively reframing the facts it serves a particular interpretation of events. In this case PS3, and by extension Sony are failing because PS2 units sold during the rise of the 360 and Wii are being counted against them as a metric of performance!

 

[Marco1]

It's funny but nobody knows who will pull through next-gen, I suppose anything is possible and sometimes a little bit of luck is all they really need.
The public fad only needs one single thing to sway into their favour yet Sony don't seem to be having much luck.
Take the vita for example, they have given us touch-screen, dual sticks, that beautiful screen yet the thing is selling terrible in the East. I know it doesn't have monster-hunter but when that releases for it I am sure 3DS will have pokemon to counter-act it.

 

[Jhriad]

iPad 3 is clearly going to suck up all the media attention and hype.

Lets be honest here, the Vita wasn't going to garner any serious media attention from anything other than enthusiast sites anyway. Vita coverage might be drowned out a bit on tech blogs but it'll still receive the same coverage from gaming press that it would otherwise have received.

 

[offshore]

iPhone 4S certainly didn't have that much buzz when it came out.

Except it was the fasting selling phone ever?

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

this is not a prediction.this is a forecast

now THAT is some funny shit.

 

[JWong]

Did you just say 4S didn't have much buzz...what? Did you see how well it did? Biggest iPhone launch by a huge margin. Apple stores had lines every time new shipments of 4S's came in for months. iPad 3's will likely be far larger than 1 or 2's launches were. And those will be people spending $500+ they might otherwise have got a Vita with.

It's a slight power upgrade. Don't need to tell me Apple fans will suck it up faster than anything.

iPhone 4 was a bigger impact generating more buzz, including negative buzz like the guy leaving it at the bar and the signal issue. It's aesthetics makes a huge difference, and actually having a good camera.

 

[Kazerei]

Are they selling the Vita at a loss? I remember reading the analysis of the production cost of a Vita putting it in the sub $200 range. It didn't include marketing or distribution but I figured they were at least breaking even on the thing.

From this thread

In an interview with Reuters Japan, Sony’s Kaz Hirai stated that Sony aims to make a profit on the PlayStation Vita in three years.

yes BOM= $160 USD.no huge R&D cost,so with the 3G SKU and the mem cards they are more than profitable on each unit already.and the material cost will go down more in the next 6 months

Bill of materials is just the cost of the parts. Doesn't include the manufacturing, labour, shipping, etc.

 

[stilgar]

its not just optimism but facts.they will be profitable next year


Sony CFO: aims for $2.6 billion oper profit next FY
TOKYO | Thu Feb 2, 2012 8:18am EST


(Reuters) - Sony Corp aims to return to the black on an operating basis and achieve about 200 billion yen ($2.6 billion) in operating profit in the next fiscal year, as it looks to halve losses in its TV business, CFO Masaru Kato told reporters.

The Japanese consumer electronics company earlier on Thursday slashed its operating income forecast to a loss of 95 billion yen for the current year ending in March, from a profit of 20 billion yen in its previous outlook, stung by a slide in sales at its TV unit as well as a strong yen and other factors.



http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/02/us-sony-profit-idUSTRE8110J120120202

How a forecast is considered as a fact now?

 

[Cheebo]

It's a slight power upgrade. Don't need to tell me Apple fans will suck it up faster than anything.

iPhone 4 was a bigger impact generating more buzz, including negative buzz like the guy leaving it at the bar and the signal issue. It's aesthetics makes a huge difference, and actually having a good camera.

It wasn't Apple fans sucking it up. 4S was the biggest launch of any phone of all time. You don't sell 37 million just to Apple fans. You are confusing the internets reaction with reality.

iPad 3's launch will be a good deal bigger than iPad 2 which itself was pretty huge. It will overwhelm Vita in terms of buzz, media attention, and the like. I don't see how anyone can doubt that. It's pretty obvious I would have thought.

 

[iamshadowlark]

From this thread





Bill of materials is just the cost of the parts. Doesn't include the manufacturing, labour, shipping, etc.

That statement doesn't mean much. It very well could be profitable right now.

 

[JWong]

It wasn't Apple fans sucking it up. 4S was the biggest launch of any phone of all time. You don't sell 37 million just to Apple fans. You are confusing the internets reaction with reality.

iPad 3's launch will be a good deal bigger than iPad 2 which itself was pretty huge. It will overwhelm Vita in terms of buzz, media attention, and the like. I don't see how anyone can doubt that. It's pretty obvious I would have thought.

Yes, you do sell 37 million to Apple fans, and it's mainly due to Apple going to new markets. Android is gaining market share every day to stop Apple from getting anywhere.

If iPad 3 doesn't go crazy, sport dual analog set up or something radical, it's just another tablet. Android ICS will eat that up like nothing.

 

[H_Prestige]

From this thread





Bill of materials is just the cost of the parts. Doesn't include the manufacturing, labour, shipping, etc.

That statement is referring to the entire Vita business, not just hardware margins.

 

[Kazerei]

That statement doesn't mean much. It very well could be profitable right now.

Seriously? Hirai says they are aiming to make a profit on Vita within three years. If sales are strong, they could achieve that sooner. But sales in Japan have been less than spectacular so far. There is no way it could be profitable right now.

That statement is referring to the entire Vita business, not just hardware margins.

JapanGAF could probably clarify, but it sounded like they were talking about hardware (at least, the Examiner goes on to talk about hardware). Besides, taking a loss on hardware would be likely the biggest reason for the entire Vita business not being profitable. Unless their marketing budget is really that big.

 

[Cheebo]

If iPad 3 doesn't go crazy, sport dual analog set up or something radical, it's just another tablet. Android ICS will eat that up like nothing.

Okay first, dual analog on a iPad. Are you serious? That makes no sense at all. It isn't just another tablet. It's an iPad. Aka the most wanted device by literally everyone. iPad's, not tablets has been the #1 most wanted item of kids and teens christmas lists for two years in a row for a reason.

And Android will eat it up like nothing? Android has been a complete and utter flop on tablets.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Seriously? Hirai says they are aiming to make a profit on Vita within three years. If sales are strong, they could achieve that sooner. But sales in Japan have been less than spectacular so far. There is no way it could be profitable right now.

That statement is referring to the entire Vita business, not just hardware margins.

Thanks.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

yes BOM= $160 USD.no huge R&D cost,so with the 3G SKU and the mem cards they are more than profitable on each unit already.and the material cost will go down more in the next 6 months

BOM =/= production cost

 

[Lynn616]

Seriously? Hirai says they are aiming to make a profit on Vita within three years. If sales are strong, they could achieve that sooner. But sales in Japan have been less than spectacular so far. There is no way it could be profitable right now.



JapanGAF could probably clarify, but it sounded like they were talking about hardware (at least, the Examiner goes on to talk about hardware). Besides, taking a loss on hardware would be likely the biggest reason for the entire Vita business not being profitable. Unless their marketing budget is really that big.

So they are going to lose money on Vita for 3 years? That is crazy.

 

[iamshadowlark]

JapanGAF could probably clarify, but it sounded like they were talking about hardware (at least, the Examiner goes on to talk about hardware). Besides, taking a loss on hardware would be likely the biggest reason for the entire Vita business not being profitable. Unless their marketing budget is really that big.

I doubt it.

Also before you can declare something profitable you have to recoup all the initial investments. Its crazy to think that the Vita will have accomplished that by now, even if it sold at a Wii's pace.

So they are going to lose money on Vita for 3 years? That is crazy.

no.

 

[Cipherr]

If iPad 3 doesn't go crazy, sport dual analog set up or something radical, it's just another tablet. Android ICS will eat that up like nothing.

Wow, stick to gaming predictions. There is nothing in the mobile market right now to suggest this would be the case. Thats the worst prediction ever.

 

[Taurus]

See this is typical of the distorted reporting I'm talking about.

It looks really bad because its including over 50m in global shipments logged since 2005.

By selectively reframing the facts it serves a particular interpretation of events. In this case PS3, and by extension Sony are failing because PS2 units sold during the rise of the 360 and Wii are being counted against them as a metric of performance!

Ok, remove that 50 million from 154 million and you get 104 million against competitor's 22 and 24 million. It changes percents but it doesn't change the point I was making at all.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Didn't they forecast profit earlier for this quarter? But reported terrible losses. What makes you think they get it right this time other than your sincere hope? Nothing.

They also had to deal with the tsunami and Thai floods in the middle somewhere which has depressed earnings by a massive amount. If not for those two events I think Sony would have at least broken even this year.

I read an interesting statistic at work this morning, a one Yen gain against the Euro and Dollar costs Sony 6bn JPY and in the last 9 months the yen is up around 10% against the Dollar and around 12% against the Euro. That has lost them 120bn JPY since April 2011. Add in the losses from selling their stake of S-LCD and the overpayment for their half of SE and the 220bn loss becomes break even.

 

[SkylineRKR]

Hmm, some said BR was a dumb decision.. I tend to agree. Blu Ray did kind of kill Sony here. I believe it added some 200 bucks on top of the production of the Ps3. It really wasn't needed for gaming, and with the rise of digital distribution one might wonder if BR is worth it at all. DVD is STILL doing better at retail after all. Its pure speculation on my part, but a DVD Ps3 could've been released for 300-400 bucks and perhaps Sony would be in a much better position right now.

There is one keyword for Sony though; Innovation. They are severely lacking there.

They got away with offering the same thing at a time when a graphical upgrade was enough. The Ps1 was a gaming console like the other competitors for example, it offered what Sega and Nintendo did and it was succesful. The Ps2 was really same thing but with even better graphics. That worked out back then but now the success lies in bringing a new experience to the table rather than just the same thing with prettier graphics. Nintendo came up with the Wii and its motion controls, and won. Microsoft one-upped that with Kinect and is succesful as well. But all Sony did was offering a carbon copy of the Wii-mote and obviously lost. The same thing could be said for handhelds, the PSP is not that much more than a GBA with prettier visuals. The DS however was actually a new experience.

Also, Sony forgot to take online play seriously during the Ps2 era while it was obvious that it would become significant for the consoles. Sony is constantly playing catch up with PSN as well.

As a first day Playstation gamer I want Sony to be succesful again, but I'm not certain. They need to be a step ahead for once instead of following.