... The proof that Starfield underperformed is the data from Steam. Starfield performed 30% poorer than Fallout 4, despite Steam growing by 338%...
Determination of underperformance requires establishment of performance targets and performance metrics. So, let's take a look what you've picked here.
You've hung your hat on concurrent users on PC - and exclusively on Steam. This is actually a surprising position for you to take. You've made quite a few posts declaring that Game Pass cannibalises sales, and Steam doesn't support Game Pass, therefore you must believe a
significant number of players didn't buy it on Steam. According to official statements, Starfield has had over 6 million players already,
with one million concurrent, making it Bethesda's biggest game launch
ever - and it achieved this without the PlayStation platform. The additional players not on Steam and not on PlayStation had to be funnelled somewhere to achieve these numbers. This would lend credence to your prior posts about Game Pass eating game sales. So, given those prior posts, it seems to me that you've picked a metric from a platform that you believe is uniquely
unapplicable to Starfield in comparison to Fallout 4 - which didn't launch on Game Pass and didn't launch on the Xbox PC App.
With these data points together, this puts you in a difficult position: either you're wrong about Game Pass cannibalising game sales but your CCU numbers might be correct, or, you're right that Game Pass cannibalises game sales but your CCU numbers are therefore evidently wrong. I'll let you pick your poison.
To my eyes, I'll apply the TLOU2 razor: Starfield must be a success because of all the people working to convince everyone that it wasn't. If it was the resounding failure people are trying to paint it as, no one would require convincing.
PC Game Pass (15 million subscribers, at best) is insignificant compared to Steam (120 million). How much impact do you think it has?
Starfield hit 330K peak with a 120 million Steam userbase. That's a ratio of 0.275%. Use the same percentage and you'll get 41,250 additional players if you account for Game Pass PC. Let's double it for no reason, just to make you happy.
So, accounting for Game Pass, the 330K becomes 412K.
That is still less than Fallout 4. And less than 50% of Baldur's Gate 3, Cyberpunk, Elden Ring, Hogwart's Legacy, etc.
Good Lord please tell me you don't do your own taxes?