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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

M

Mrbob

Member
Check this out...

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/unusual-activity-novavax-164400139.html

Showing up on CNBC today.

7.60 is basically the line in the sand for support and if the stock bounces off of that Monday morning I'll increase my position. Roll the dice for P3. Otherwise I'll hold for about 7.25.

My gut feeling is the stock bounces off support at 7.60 and then we get that run to 10 I've been anticipating before results are released. I'd like to see this stock to get to at least 9 before results are released.

My only concern right now (and its a big one) is the overly bullish attitude. Too many times I've seen guaranteed successes get crushed. While it may not pertain here it is just a reason to not get too eurphoric and still expect the worst while hoping for the best. Still nervous about the results. I don't do options but I've been considering options for NVAX.
 
C

ColdPizza

Banned
Mrbob said:
Check this out...

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/unusual-activity-novavax-164400139.html

Showing up on CNBC today.

7.60 is basically the line in the sand for support and if the stock bounces off of that Monday morning I'll increase my position. Roll the dice for P3. Otherwise I'll hold for about 7.25.

My gut feeling is the stock bounces off support at 7.60 and then we get that run to 10 I've been anticipating before results are released. I'd like to see this stock to get to at least 9 before results are released.

My only concern right now (and its a big one) is the overly bullish attitude. Too many times I've seen guaranteed successes get crushed. While it may not pertain here it is just a reason to not get too eurphoric and still expect the worst while hoping for the best. Still nervous about the results. I don't do options but I've been considering options for NVAX.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I'd like $10 before results. I don't think things are overly bullish with 64m shares short. That's like 25% of total shares and a sizable bet they will fail.

I'd take 10-20% of my shares off the table at $10.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
My comments about bullishness are mainly the "NVAX can't fail Phase 3" articles popping up. I always get worried when that happens. I still expect good news but I brace for the worst.

I'm curious about the short interest too. Wonder if they are actual shorts or just big firms hedging against a P3 failure with puts that won't be used if successful.

Looked like one big short bailed out on Friday for sure. When the price spiked from like 7.50 to 7.90 in one second that is a giant short bailing out and perhaps going long.
 
C

ColdPizza

Banned
Mrbob said:
My comments about bullishness are mainly the "NVAX can't fail Phase 3" articles popping up. I always get worried when that happens. I still expect good news but I brace for the worst.

I'm curious about the short interest too. Wonder if they are actual shorts or just big firms hedging against a P3 failure with puts that won't be used if successful.

Looked like one big short bailed out on Friday for sure. When the price spiked from like 7.50 to 7.90 in one second that is a giant short bailing out and perhaps going long.
Click to expand...

Hedges most likely with an 80%+ institutional ownership rate.
 
C

ColdPizza

Banned
Decent write-up from Investor Village on why a poster thinks NVAX trial will pass:

RSV-F Phase III: support For and Against positive results and FDA approval
Phase III results will be profitable for many of us. That is guaranteed. To whom that will be, none of us knows.

Here are some compelling points FOR and AGAINST NVAX’s phase III results for its RSV-F vaccine for older adults. These results are due any day over the next couple weeks:

In support of phase III success and FDA approval:

~ Phase III is literally a repeat of phase II but with a larger N. Phase II results were great.

~ The dose being used is the same as for Phase II

~ The RSV seasonal attack rate was the same for PIII as for PII (as reported by the CDC) so once again, there will be enough cases of RSV to support “power” the large PIII trial

~ The sample size for PII was large, so large that at the time it was initiated, many thought it would be a combined 2/3 trial. This means statistical significance has largely been met already. In a sense, PIII is a confirmatory trial.

~ This is a vaccine, not a drug. “Risk/safety”.... negative reactions to antibodies being injected generally occur when they are first given for animal trials or Phase I for humans, when antibodies are introduced to subjects for the first time. By Phase II, responses are predictable, especially if the same dosage is used. There is no buildup of toxicity or increased risk of toxicity with a vaccine that is being given as……. the exact same dosage.

~ NVAX has never had an SAE/AE in any of it’s trial subjects. Ever. Thousands of subjects and counting.

~ According to Seeking Alpha, the Phase III p-value results could be 22% worse than for Phase II and STILL be approved by the FDA because that is where the FDA threshold is for approval and because there is no RSV vaccine available. Phase II already outperformed the FDA approval threshold by 22%.

Seeing that the seasonal attack rate is the same and the dosage is exactly the same as for Phase II, not sure how Phase III could become 22% worse? It may be better, actually, but the point is, there is a lot of wiggle room for Phase III to meet its trial endpoints and be approved by the FDA.

~ Novavax, with advice from the FDA, modified its Phase III trial to make its probability of success higher than the already successful Phase 2. The FDA wants an RSV vaccine so much, they made the trial endpoints for Phase III EASIER than they were for Phase II. This bears repeating. The FDA has made Phase III EASIER TO PASS than the already successful Phase II.

~ In layman's terms, Novavax is having a red carpet rolled out for its RSV-F vaccine and the FDA is doing the unrolling. Speaking of which, this trial (RSV-F vaccine for older adults) has received fast track status recently.

The case against phase III success and FDA approval:

Not a whole lot of evidence has been provided, honestly. I have seen no evidence.

There has been an anecdote repeated, “why is it only trading at $x.xx then?” This was said last week also: “Then why is the sp at $7?” Not much for evidence or support but if you are short or looking for a short position, you can rest your laurels with this DD and support.
Click to expand...
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Yeah I just read on Investor Village that NVAX is initiating Phase 4 now, which is basically the last step by the FDA to get their drug on the market.

Screw it more shares at 8 dollars, lets do this. Probably grab some more if it dips to 7.50.

No more swing trading NVAX time to hold for p3 and hope for the best.
 
C

ColdPizza

Banned
Mrbob said:
Yeah I just read on Investor Village that NVAX is initiating Phase 4 now, which is basically the last step by the FDA to get their drug on the market.

Screw it more shares at 8 dollars, lets do this. Probably grab some more if it dips to 7.50.

No more swing trading NVAX time to hold for p3 and hope for the best.
Click to expand...

Phase 4? What for?
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Yeah that's me unless Stocktwits allows multiple names.

I like Stocktwits quite a bit. There is a lot of garbage to sift through but parsing out the trash you can find some nice info on different stock boards. Have a few on my WatchList I want to invest in but right now playing the P3 lottery with NVAX first..
 
M

Maybesew

Member
I forgot about this thread. I've been making fucking bank with this down move in bonds and stocks. Chickens coming home to roost. Staying short for a while.
 
P

Pocks

Member
Assuming the SCTY and TSLA merger goes through, what is the exact conversion metric? According to Tesla's presentation on August 1st, the ratio is of 0.110, but it also mentions a share price of $25.37 based on an average trading price at the end of July.

With that in mind, do I get $25.37 worth of TSLA for each share of SCTY—or do I get 0.110 shares of TSLA for each share of SCTY?
 
M

Mrbob

Member
To my EXEL friends Cabo received European approval..


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-commission-approves-cabometyx-cabozantinib-050000490.html

Stock has been beast mode lets see if this takes it above 13. Possible this might be priced in already. Depending on how the stock moves might pick up some more shares.

ColdPizza said:
There's an NVAX FB group if you want to join. I think we have 500 members.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the invite but I don't really use Facebook. That group is either going to be party town or a support group.
 
C

ColdPizza

Banned
robertsan21 said:
Is it worth getting in on NVAX now?
Click to expand...

Depends on your trading strategy or investment horizon.

If you're a gambler you could buy a small position now to play the phase 3 data readout. If you're risk averse, you can wait until the results and then buy in immediately afterwards but then you'll probably miss the initial pop in share price.
 
Melon Husk

Melon Husk

Member
Pocks said:
Assuming the SCTY and TSLA merger goes through, what is the exact conversion metric? According to Tesla's presentation on August 1st, the ratio is of 0.110, but it also mentions a share price of $25.37 based on an average trading price at the end of July.

With that in mind, do I get $25.37 worth of TSLA for each share of SCTY—or do I get 0.110 shares of TSLA for each share of SCTY?
Click to expand...

5day VWAP of the buyer
 
P

Pocks

Member
Melon Husk said:
5day VWAP of the buyer
Click to expand...

Thanks for responding.

When is the 5day VWAP calculated? Back in July when the offer was accepted ($25.37), when the 45 day go-shop period terminates, when the shareholders approve..?

I suppose I just need to know what specifically would happen to 10 shares of SCTY. I can extrapolate from there.
 
D

Deleted member 245925

Unconfirmed Member
Novavax Announces Topline RSV F Vaccine Data from Two Clinical Trials in Older Adults Thursday, September 15, 2016 @ 5:00 p.m. ET
Webcast

Bought in yesterday, please don't fail me.
 
R

RMI

Banned
Feel bad for people who had big positions, but this was literally gambling. I should have walked away with my little gains at the end of the day today!
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Sorry dude just don't tell her until after you get a big win. Not sure if I would sell at this point since it seems like they have cash to keep going right now. Hard to say though.

RMI said:
Feel bad for people who had big positions, but this was literally gambling. I should have walked away with my little gains at the end of the day today!
Click to expand...

It wasn't just a miss it was fairly sizeable miss from P2. Difference so big makes you wonder if the P2 results were doctored. There have been plenty of P3 failures but usually results are much closer than this to P2. If the miss was small the stock wouldn't be tanking as hard. It is possible this might come around again but it is going to take a long time. Perhaps that trial we saw initiated a couple days ago was a P3B trial and they are going to try again.

With such a big drop today usually there is possibility of a dead cat bounce. Thinking of potentially buying some more tomorrow for a swing trade but I might be catching a falling knife.
 
R

RMI

Banned
Mrbob said:
With such a big drop today usually there is possibility of a dead cat bounce. Thinking of potentially buying some more tomorrow for a swing trade but I might be catching a falling knife.
Click to expand...

Haha yeah at this price I could double my stake with the spare change I have in my brokerage account. Not going to throw good money after bad though. I'll probably just wait until December and take the loss.
 
A

Akira

Member
Holy crap lol. NVAX is like 75 percent of my holdings. My portfolio is down to a little below half of what it was yesterday.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Akira said:
Holy crap lol. NVAX is like 75 percent of my holdings. My portfolio is down to a little below half of what it was yesterday.
Click to expand...
What? Damn. Sorry. Need that EXEL buyout now.

I typically stay around 5% on spec stocks when not swing trading. I almost bought more than my 5% but I kept my rule intact.
 
R

RMI

Banned
NVAX having a pretty wild ride this morning. I don't have the stomach for this penny-stock stuff though so didn't throw more money at it. could have made back some of my losses.
 
A

Akira

Member
Mrbob said:
What? Damn. Sorry. Need that EXEL buyout now.

I typically stay around 5% on spec stocks when not swing trading. I almost bought more than my 5% but I kept my rule intact.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I should clarify that when I say portfolio I mean my Robinhood account that I put $200 in last October to play around with stocks. I haven't added any cash to it since. I am basically just trying to see how much I can grow the initial investment with stock trading. I lost a lot last year with SCTY so I started getting into biotech. I was in the red since I started and have only climbed back to the green recently in the last 2 weeks thanks to NVAX and EXEL. I was around $202~ yesterday and this morning I'm at ~$99.

My real portfolio is in an IRA, index funds, and robo-advisors, otherwise I'd prolly be destroyed this morning if my Robinhood account consisted of my real portfolio. I've come to realize I'm bad at stock trading / gambling thanks to Robinhood.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
It's hard to say, I've seen biotech companies come back from the dead before (Exel is one actually) but it's going to take years. These comebacks don't happen overnight. Or even in 12 months. Years. This was their mainline drug and the P3 results were disastrous. I mean worse than placebo how does that even happen? I honestly have no idea how their RSV drug passed P2 if P3 wasn't even better than Placebo. So basically their main drug is toast and while they do have other things in the pipeline there is nothing close to approval. RSV was the drug that was going to put NVAX on the map. Was being the key word. They have a little more than 300 million in cash and their debt are in notes that are due in 7 years so they don't have short term obligations. However cash burn is always a problem with clinical biotechs and I'm not sure how they raise any more money outside of potential dilution. There might be a short term pop to 2 or 3 (these bounce backs happen on stocks that get crushed) but Id only play this as a swing position. They have an analyst meeting on Oct 11 that will give people more clarity. Still, that cash burn problem is an issue. Plus, the company has gotten away with bad earnings reports on the potential of RSV and that potential is gone.

Edit: Seeking alpha posted an article today. Should have just found this first and saved myself time of writing out a post haha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4006718-novavax-take-ball-go-home

Akira said:
Sorry, I should clarify that when I say portfolio I mean my Robinhood account that I put $200 in last October to play around with stocks. I haven't added any cash to it since. I am basically just trying to see how much I can grow the initial investment with stock trading. I lost a lot last year with SCTY so I started getting into biotech. I was in the red since I started and have only climbed back to the green recently in the last 2 weeks thanks to NVAX and EXEL. I was around $202~ yesterday and this morning I'm at ~$99.

My real portfolio is in an IRA, index funds, and robo-advisors, otherwise I'd prolly be destroyed this morning if my Robinhood account consisted of my real portfolio. I've come to realize I'm bad at stock trading / gambling thanks to Robinhood.
Click to expand...

That's good. I'm up a little but not much anymore. Made an decent amount swing trading then held some shares with my profit....but after an 85% haircut there isn't much profit left. I don't like this current market anyway not holding anything long except my retirement funds. Waiting for September 21 to come and go first.
 
vpance

vpance

Member
Just popping in to see what's goi.. holy shit NVAX.

In hindsight, see the weekly chart, a classic H&S pattern with the RS at $8. Target 0 basically.
 
vpance

vpance

Member
vpance said:
wNWF6gE.jpg
Click to expand...

Update to this chart

JnBNIK1.jpg
Click to expand...

Hope you AAPL fans stayed long post earnings.
 
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