For market indices. You might speculate that individual stocks could behave differently since they have higher volatility than indices, but my guess is that "buy immediately" still wins most of the time.
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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
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For market indices. You might speculate that individual stocks could behave differently since they have higher volatility than indices, but my guess is that "buy immediately" still wins most of the time.
I mostly agree with that for etfs. Individual stocks are a lot more volatile than market funds with more percentage swings. Though I'd be super nervous going all in on a SP500 index right now. If you bought the Nasdaq at the top in 2000 it took like 12 years to get back up to where it was.
Unknown Solider my Tesla yacht is disappearing. Only thing I'm going to be able to afford is a water inner tube.
Unknown Solider my Tesla yacht is disappearing. Only thing I'm going to be able to afford is a water inner tube.
Didn't Goldman drop the target to 180? At least they have some stones for offering a target at a significant distance from the current stock price.
Too many times these analysts are late on targets. Like a stock runs from 180 to 350 with the analyst saying nothing. Once at 350 the analyst slaps a 360 target on. Well congrats on that bold call.
Too many times these analysts are late on targets. Like a stock runs from 180 to 350 with the analyst saying nothing. Once at 350 the analyst slaps a 360 target on. Well congrats on that bold call.
ClosingADoor
Member
Thing with ETFs is you just need to keep buying. If the thing crashes, not a problem. Buy more next month and it will recover over time. Unless you are planning to cash out soon of course.
SecretMoblin
Member
The ideal ETF strategy is buy 'n' hold anyway, and if it's a properly broad ETF and you're taking advantage of your brokerage's DRIP (which you should) those gains accelerate in an up market.
edit: Ignoring distribution yields/DRIP in down markets leads to silly arguments like this one
edit: Ignoring distribution yields/DRIP in down markets leads to silly arguments like this one
ClosingADoor
Member
Strange, my biotech (Kiadis Pharma) just went up almost 8% at the end of the day. Volume double the average. Still 50% down, but still nice to have a positive day.
Did they? $180? Well they may as well drop it to below $50 seeing as Tesla is never going to make money.
Tesla remind me of Apple stock runs back in the day. As long as the car delivered is semi decent, it's the only thing in the market and it'll probably sell out due to brand recognition. Elons companies are pretty pie in the sky type stuff, but Tesla at least is a finished product more or less.
Ether_Snake
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Don't forget interests which reduce how long it takes to recover, which broad etfs provide.
buy the rumor, sell the news
It sounds like we are talking more about lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging now, but I would still recommend lump sum.
Having the market crash the day after you invest is actually not such a bad thing to happen as long as you don't start panic selling. You trade your shares for a different index, realize a huge capital loss, and get to write off capital gains for years. A crash and recovery can be more financially advantageous than having the market stay flat.
Unknown Soldier
Member
This is looking like a real correction now.
I would say buy in now while it's a bargain but I don't know where the bottom will be. I do know that Tesla isn't going to have meaningful competition until 2019 or 2020 at the earliest so Goldman can go fuck himself.
Ether_Snake
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If this is a real major correction I would expect it to go down to 240. Who knows, I'm not bothering selling, just old SCTY shares that were converted to TSLA and I'm keeping them for years still. I'm not adding cause I'm not doing stock picking anymore for a while.
Unknown Soldier
Member
I guess it depends, there's a resistance around 295-300 where the old ATH was before this recent bull run. If it dips below that, 240 is a possibility. I mean it spent almost 2 years floating around 240-260 so if it goes back there then it's just reverting to an old stable level.
I remember earlier this year when NVDA hit it's old ATH of 120-ish, crushed earnings, and promptly dropped as low as the 90's before recovering and making a second wind run which has only recently ended. NVDA hit that 85-90 resistance and bounced off pretty consistently. Let's see if TSLA can do the same.
I remember earlier this year when NVDA hit it's old ATH of 120-ish, crushed earnings, and promptly dropped as low as the 90's before recovering and making a second wind run which has only recently ended. NVDA hit that 85-90 resistance and bounced off pretty consistently. Let's see if TSLA can do the same.
Melon Husk
Member
290 is a pretty good guess, bounce from old highs. Nice volume today though. Buy if you want some rollercoaster action in your life.
Nasdaq doesn't look too hot. I've never liked the cat ears shape.
Still all eyes on AMD. Averaged up yesterday morning.
Nasdaq doesn't look too hot. I've never liked the cat ears shape.
Still all eyes on AMD. Averaged up yesterday morning.
cpp_is_king
Member
I'm buying some TSLA. Not interested in calling the bottom, down 15% in a couple of days with no competition is just fine with me.
Ether_Snake
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Does that really make sense? Assuming your portfolio was balanced and equities fell, it would find itself overweight on fixed income if those didn't fall as much or rose, so what would you really move your money to? You'd have to put more in equities and possibly sell some fixed income assets to rebalance.
I don't doubt it will bounce but I am thinking it's a bull trap if it happens; you had the big run up, the hype, people then saying it's too high and that they'll get in on a dip, it dips. Now people will get in, but it will be weak hands, the big institutions will then sell since they got caught off guard on the previous drop and will be happy to relock their gains, which then causes all the weak hands to panic and the stock crashes.
If it is a classic bubble this is how it would play out. We are about to enter the bull trap if that's what is happening.
I mean trading one stock index for another stock index that is similar (but not so similar as to trigger wash sale rules). For instance sell total market and buy s&p 500.
Whether or not you want to rebalance your non-stock investments is a separate issue, although if the stock market has just crashed and stocks are cheap, it is probably an opportune thing to do.
This discussion assumes you do not need liquidity and plan to hold the stocks for a while. If you are already retired and need to sell stocks to pay bills, then it doesn't work so well.
cpp_is_king
Member
That's fine. I've learned not to try to call bottoms and predict what the market will do. I'm wrong as often as I'm right. The only thing I know for sure is that a) TSLA is still fundamentally strong, b) Elon Musk is a great and innovative leader, c) It's down way more than it should be for 5 days time.
I'm already down about 2% since I bought it (just today! I bought it at 315 and I think it closed at like 308). That's fine. I've been looking for an dip to buy TSLA on for a while, so this is as good a time as any.
ClosingADoor
Member
I'm a bit scared for Tesla, since other car companies are jumping on the electric cars left and right. Once the German car makers get it really rolling, what does that mean for Tesla.
Cars aren't really a high markup field when talking about the regular car sales. And premium car sales aren't justifying their market value right now.
I think Tesla will be around for a long time and a major player, but at current prices... tough call.
Good to see my insurance stock (NN Group) is rising. Setting a tight stop loss, since it is at all time highs almost. And my biotech up 7% again. Only 45% to go until break even. Go, go, go.
Ether_Snake
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Tesla isn't supposed to be just a car company though, that's why it's not longer Tesla Motors.
Unknown Soldier
Member
Shout out to Unknown Solider and Tesla for being the worst performing stock in my 30 stock Motif.
You should sell it all now before it starts going up again! That'll teach me a valuable lesson!
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
I am still bleeding money with GOOG and amazon lol
Still holding it, hoping the earnings are good. Not that I need to sell it but i like to see my portfolio in green.
And its about time for Tesla pull back. That stock was going up everyday for no damn reason.
Still holding it, hoping the earnings are good. Not that I need to sell it but i like to see my portfolio in green.
And its about time for Tesla pull back. That stock was going up everyday for no damn reason.
cpp_is_king
Member
145? Jesus christ, I'll get more at 280.
SecretMoblin
Member
market is still bullish about the tax cut portion of it surviving, at least in a separate tax reform bill
despite broader disagreements about Medicaid and blanket repeal vs. repeal & replace, Republicans were nearly unanimous in their agreement re: tax cuts
Yeah economic data was good again this morning. If some sort of tax reform can get passed the market will go up.
I was just kidding and trolling Unknown Soldier for his constant Tesla love fest.
Unknown Soldier
Member
We'll see who's laughing in 5 years!
ClosingADoor
Member
Still don't get what the business model for Snap was. They literally do something that their larger competitor (Facebook) could add and has now added to their more popular platforms in an instant. They stood no chance.
SecretMoblin
Member
Instagram was more than happy to hammer the final nail in Snap's coffin
it is (was) the very definition of a fad product, their mistake was not offering up themselves to a larger company as soon as it started taking off
Interesting article from Larry Swedroe on all the "sure thing" predictions for 2017 that have not come to pass (and in most cases, the opposite of the prediction actually occurred):
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-gurus-mostly-strike-out-again
He may be cherrypicking a bit in the predictions he chooses to include, but it does get across the general argument that you should not put too much faith in predictions over short time horizons, no matter how logical they sound.
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-gurus-mostly-strike-out-again
He may be cherrypicking a bit in the predictions he chooses to include, but it does get across the general argument that you should not put too much faith in predictions over short time horizons, no matter how logical they sound.
Ether_Snake
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My prediction about oil has been right a year ago: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210769755&postcount=14752
Or back in january 2016: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=192965366&postcount=1485
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=191415644&postcount=54
Or June 2015!
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=170350460&postcount=59
And I stick to it. Oil prices are never going back above 50 other than temporarily as a result of a crisis.
Or back in january 2016: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=192965366&postcount=1485
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=191415644&postcount=54
Or June 2015!
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=170350460&postcount=59
And I stick to it. Oil prices are never going back above 50 other than temporarily as a result of a crisis.
ClosingADoor
Member
I would like oil to at least go up about 20% one time more so I can get rid of my ETF there.
My steel stock recovering nicely again. 10% for the month. Just about 10% more to go and it is back in the green.
My steel stock recovering nicely again. 10% for the month. Just about 10% more to go and it is back in the green.
If you are from the US, why not just sell them to realize the capital loss?
For you guys who are stock pickers, I would think that banking some capital losses would be valuable to offset short term capital gains on your taxes. Even as a buy & hold index guy myself, I kind of secretly wish we would see a big market dip so I could bank some losses to offset my dividends.
ClosingADoor
Member
Not in the US. Over here we get taxed for our assets at the start of the year. They just expect a 4% return and tax that for 30%. So you pay 1.2% over your assets. First 25.000 or so is tax free. Dividend tax is deducted from the asset tax also, so you don't pay double.
It works out when the market goes up by more. But if it goes down... you are still taxed as if you made a profit. And for people just putting money in the bank it is bad, because interest rates are below 1.2%, so you are actually losing money that way.
That's interesting. Which country, if you don't mind saying?
ClosingADoor
Member
Netherlands.
I think this info here is pretty much correct: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax#Netherlands
Different rules apply for actual professional traders though.
With the low interest rate we have seen more people getting into investing again lately, because otherwise you are literally paying more taxes over your assets then you get in interest from the bank.
Unknown Soldier
Member
Wow, taxation of total assets? I'm guessing not a lot of rich people choose to remain domiciled in the Netherlands.
ClosingADoor
Member
It's not that bad really, there are a lot of loopholes and exemptions. For most lower income people, they won't pay it over their savings, since that is lower then 20.000 euro. If you do your retirement savings through certain ways it is exempt also (but that means locking down your assets, because if you need it earlier you need to pay an extra tax over it).
Most upper middle class and rich people get into real estate, because those are not counted towards these assets. Or you have your income run through a middle company and stall it there, only paying yourself a certain amount in income to your person.
And it works out when the market goes up by more of course. And we just had a row of pretty good years. It is probably mostly bad for the middle class that has some savings now with the extremely low interest rate. Or when the market tanks and you still get taxed for it.
Captain Smoker
Member
Seems like FAANG strikes back after the dip.
First Solar is up almost 60% in the last three months and I'm still in the fucking red. xD
9% to go and I'm back in the green after a year.
First Solar is up almost 60% in the last three months and I'm still in the fucking red. xD
9% to go and I'm back in the green after a year.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Thats crazy man. I don't know how you do it. Holding stock even after seeing almost 70% dip. How? You always knew it was eventually come back up?
Captain Smoker
Member
I think I didn't care that much or I'm just careless regarding FSLR. xD
On the one hand it helps that it's not a large position (but it isn't small either), on the other hand it's the largest solar company in the US and the market for renewables is looming, therefore I see potential.
Side note: Mathematically I was like -30% or -40% with FSLR, which is still pretty big.
If 10$ falls to 3$ it shows -70%, but it actually has to grow 233% from 3$ to 10$.
Unknown Soldier
Member
FAANG was not defanged. FAANG doesn't sleep. It waits.
NVDA is near it's ATH again. Fuck yeah.
NVDA is near it's ATH again. Fuck yeah.