Unknown Soldier
Member
Keep both eyes on NVDA, pushing up against ATH again today
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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
Unknown Soldier, this should put a smile on your face. Looks like hedge funds getting crushed for betting against Tesla into earnings:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/hed...-millions-on-wrong-way-bet-against-tesla.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/hed...-millions-on-wrong-way-bet-against-tesla.html
cpp_is_king
Member
Exactly, my only regret is that I didn't buy more when it dipped. Couple years ago it was around $210 and i setva buy order at $200 for $50k worth. Never triggered. Fml
cpp_is_king
Member
To be fair, it was most of my cash
And yea, it's not wise to put all your eggs in one basket. But I knew TSLA had a ton of promise. Oh well.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
I get that the Tesla isn't JUST car company and they have big ambitions. But right now, car is what driving their stock prices. 1 bad news about Model 3 and it falls.
This right here is the problem. Lot of people who ae investing in Tesla thinks exactly what you are saying. It is going to be the next Apple. And that is the reason the valuation of Tesla is absurd atm. Everything what you are saying is already factored in the stock. Musk himself has said it twice a month ago that the stock is over priced yet no one gives a fuck.
As I have said, I believe in Tesla and it is going to be a major company in the future but that being said as one of the poster mentioned this is automobile industry. You can't expect Tesla to make profits like Apple and Google and have that big pile of cash. I still think it will be years before they post any profit that justifies their current share price.
Now speaking of AAPL and GOOG, I actually agree with you about AAPL that they can't buy their way into this. There is no shortcut but then again they have fucking 300billion cash. There is so much they can do if used wisely. But people are naïve if they think Google won't be a major player in this. Have you seen recent news? Waymo has partnered with Toyota, Lyft, Avis, Honda. And Google has been working on their self driving software for almost 8 years. I don't believe that the American car manufactures are fucked, they just need to make cars like Chevrolet Volt and partner with Google for self driving capabilities and you have a better Tesla.
I blame it on the lack of tech IPOs. Not only that, but private equity / VC is currently willing to fund companies like Snap or Uber for so long that by the time they go public they are no longer attractive for people who want to make high risk growth bets. Nor are the ultra-low interest rates on borrowing helping.
You end up with too much money trying to crowd into a few companies.
Don't think Tesla will be the only big supplier of electrical cars in the future. These companies have lot's of cash, if they want to they can force their way into this space. They are still making too much cash with traditional cars to make the transistion right now.
Tesla will be huge no question, but I don't think this will be the same thing as Nokia/Blackberry, unless they really act much too late. Mind you I probably have no no clue what I'm talking about, would love to here the opinion for/against it of someone with more compelling arguments.
cpp_is_king
Member
That's fine though, because I'm not trading it. Your view is too short sighted. AAPL is the phone company, GOOG is the internet company, AMZN is the shopping and cloud services company, TSLA is the "energy and transportation" company. If you think one car announcement is going to put a dent in a company that revolutionizes energy and transportation for the 21st century, then that definitely is short sighted in my mind.
There's no reason TSLA can't be worth 10x what it is today. It's just still early in their life, like GOOG 10 years ago when all they had going for them was google.com
ClosingADoor
Member
But Apple and Google could quickly dominate their field, because of the lack of competition there. Nobody did what they did that well. Other car companies however are already catching up to Tesla. And the energy business is a very long term one with mature companies. Also, politics plays a much larger role. Germany is not just going to hand over their car industry, there are too many interests there. Going to be a tough battle for Tesla, even with the headstart at the moment.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
The winners will not just be the makers of EVs, it will be the ones that embrace disruption. Only Tesla is really well positioned to do that at the moment.
Companies are ships, some big, some small. Assuming passengers dictate where the ship should go by buying their tickets (investors), the big ones can't as easily negotiate to change course compared to the small ones, but those ships are better equipped to handle changes in conditions, so changing course along the way is seen as less of a necessity to survive. But sometimes, to survive, the best outcome is to change course, giving the advantage in those situations to the smaller ships where the precariousness of their position actually makes the change of course more likely to be agreed on.
So, assuming that ahead lies conditions which could sink even large ships, all ships will have to negotiate with their passengers over a change of course. Tesla might be advantaged here.
Personally, I think this is what lies ahead. Private car ownership will be a minor part of car ownership, and cars will become services, and as a result of that car companies will no longer be car companies at all. The big car makers will have to convince their investors that they need to shift their investments, and in some cases in very unorthodox developments, making what used to be fairly safe investments increasingly risky, inverting the risk/reward ratios these companies traditionally had, at which point investors would shift their investments to others to preserve their desired ratios. If they wanted higher risk they would have moved their money elsewhere. So you got these big companies that suddenly don't represent the same type of investment they used to have, they end up with ratios more similar to startups. It's steering a big ship in a whole new direction, driving through conditions that would usually only impact smaller ships, but now scaled to a larger ship.
I think European governments, investors and businesses are more likely to take pragmatic approaches to this, but not US ones.
Tesla is a big risk, but to say that the big US car markers have more cash so they can do what Tesla does is wrong. They are investment vehicles, with expected ROI ratios. They can't just shift that around to beat the competition, they have to get their investors on board and get them to agree to see their investment move essentially into a new investment vehicle.
BTW, just as an example of the changes happening, in Canada some small municipalities now use Uber as their public transport option, because buying buses that would have to run almost 24/7, often underused, with all the servicing required, was too unflexible and costly. Uber charges a fixed fee to the users for say, a trip to downtown, and the government pays the balance. It's extremely flexible and scalable. Cars as a service works even in small towns.
Unknown Soldier
Member
The traditional car companies are reacting way too late, they have no idea what they are doing, and it's clear that a lot of legacy thinking is holding them back. It will be very much like what happened to RIM/Blackberry, Nokia, and even Microsoft because by the time they realized the market had shifted it was already years later and by the time their own competitive products were released they had already lost all chances at establishing a user base, mindshare, and ecosystems.
Tesla is very much building the same user base, mindshare, and ecosystem and the earliest that the Europeans are planning on having a remotely competitive product is 2019 or 2020! The Americans and Japanese have no plans at all! You have to realize just how far behind the incumbents already are, right now, even though Tesla has now spent the last 5 years building out the Supercharger network, establishing 300 retail stores and service centers, constructing the world's largest battery factory which will be able to supply fully 50% of the entire world's needs by 2020, and engaging in research and development to be able to assemble electric cars sold at $35,000 with a 25% gross margin while the nearest competitor (Chevy Bolt) is losing 40% of it's sale price on every vehicle sold. The economic moat is now established, and there's no evidence the incumbents have any idea about just how big that moat is now.
The Germans are too busy investigating their entire car industry for systematic violations of emissions standards on diesel engines. Basically every German automaker was cheating the emissions tests because they can't meet the stringent European emissions standards and now they all got caught. It's a huge distraction for the Germans exactly when they need to be focused on the transition to electrification. Although who knows, maybe their entire industry mired in the biggest scandal in their history might light a fire under their asses to move to EVs sooner rather than later. We'll see.
ClosingADoor
Member
They bet big on diesel about 2 decades ago, trying to sell that as "clean diesel" and such. A lot of countries in Europe moved towards diesel because of that. US less so, because their tests were most strict, but countries like France, Italy, Spain, Germany itself went big in buying diesel (also because it is cheaper then regular gas). Market share for diesel here went from 15% to 40+%, so that worked for them.
Now it is biting them because they cheated. But the plans were also already there to move to electric, just not at the pace a Tesla was doing development. That is going to change I think. Daimler is opening its own battery factory. I can see the German government here working with them if they fear Tesla will otherwise run the show in Europe in terms of electric cars and such.
They won't beat Tesla for the moment. But a difference is that these companies already have the infrastructure in place for selling and the factories and people to make the cars. Tesla has like 3 models at the moment? Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen will have a wider range of options later on which makes a difference I think with cars.
Things are moving quick. German car companies are aiming at 2020-2022 last I read to move into electric in a big way with their models, so they will be behind Tesla, but not that much. But I don't see cars as a field where one company will dominate it all, like we saw with online search (Google) and smartphones (Apple and Android). How American companies like GM and Ford will do, I don't know.
Either way, at least my BMW stock is in the green again. Daimler not so much, we'll see if they can move up again.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
So you got 17k out of that 1k investment? Pretty good.
Unrealized. But yes.
It was actually the first stock I ever purchased. I had some extra money I didn't mind if I lost and wanted to start investing to learn and for fun. I bought the TSLA stock because I believed in what they were doing and wanted them to be successful.
but the "whatif" monster rears its head (and that's no way to live ones life) XD
ClosingADoor
Member
Nice, my steel stock is almost even again. Only 0,6% to go. And Tencent up again by 3%, hoping it keeps holding. Wonder if I should buy more...
Was a bit tired of all the red numbers. Now if Daimler and Ahold can recover, I got a nice month.
Edit: Anyone familiar with NetEase? They do a ton of Chinese gaming stuff apparently, including Minecraft and Overwatch licenses there. And a ton of mobile MMOs. Q1 their revenue was up 70%, profit up 60%. Q2 numbers coming August 9th. Crazy to see these companies you never heard of being on equal footing with the EAs and Activisions.
Was a bit tired of all the red numbers. Now if Daimler and Ahold can recover, I got a nice month.
Edit: Anyone familiar with NetEase? They do a ton of Chinese gaming stuff apparently, including Minecraft and Overwatch licenses there. And a ton of mobile MMOs. Q1 their revenue was up 70%, profit up 60%. Q2 numbers coming August 9th. Crazy to see these companies you never heard of being on equal footing with the EAs and Activisions.
Unknown Soldier
Member
NVDA sets a new ATH today ahead of earnings Thursday. If you're looking for a play, well it's either heading for 200 or 130 after the report. Good luck.
ClosingADoor
Member
Sure they can. For example, EA owned a bunch of Ubisoft for a long while.
Don't really know what they are doing with their cash reserves or if there is any reason to just have it there. I imagine for Apple most of the being overseas for them, so maybe buying American stock does have some tax implications then.
Edit: Tencent up another dollar (2.5%). I bought a few more shares yesterday in the end at $41. Still only 5% of my portfolio, but nice to see it going up either way.
ClosingADoor
Member
Good growth and profit, still -3% on Ahold. Getting a bit tired of this. Going to be a long term stock and collect dividends then.
Stopped out on BMW at 80 today. Buying it back if it drops again, see how that develops.
Stopped out on BMW at 80 today. Buying it back if it drops again, see how that develops.
Unknown Soldier
Member
Oh man, this NVDA run-up before earnings. I'm seriously thinking of taking some profits before the bell Thursday because the odds are we're going to see it drop like a stone after they report they crushed estimates again. I hope I'm wrong though, I want to see this rocket blast off straight to $200.
ClosingADoor
Member
All tech pretty much down a few percent. Those tensions with North Korea don't help the market also, but maybe it is time for a pullback here.
SecretMoblin
Member
heh, it wasn't a tough call to make but it was a good one!
I may be imagining things but I'm starting to hear funereal organs whenever SNAP is mentioned.
My Roth IRA transfer from Betterment to Vanguard couldn't have turned out better. Betterments transfer in kind to Vanguard is to liquidate my account and send Vanguard a check which goes into a money market account for me to use. Cashed me out last last Friday and I should have access to the money at Vanguard in about a week. At first I was mad at being out of the market a couple weeks but the way things are going it may be for the best. Don't think I'll be buying back in right away.
Also SNAP keep coming down to my 3 dollar price target. Monday is when the employee lock up ends too.
Hope you took profits. Stock got crushed on earnings even with a beat. But that seems to happen with Nvidia stock. Might be a good opportunity to buy more but I'm hesitant on buying any stock right now, especially tech stocks which had the biggest run up this year.
Also SNAP keep coming down to my 3 dollar price target. Monday is when the employee lock up ends too.
Unknown Soldier
Member
I was going to sell some of my stake from my most recent buy, at $134 or so. I had it loaded up and had my finger over the button to execute the trade. Then I thought about it and realized I already sold a bunch of stock this year to help pay for my car and I'm going to be paying out the ass in capital gains taxes and decided to just let it ride. It's not as if NVDA is a doomed company which is going bankrupt. Unrealized losses are unrealized, unrealized gains are unrealized. It will come back to where it was and go even higher. This is what being long means, I guess.
Buying SNAP at any price just means you want to lose money. Don't do it. If you're going to do anything with SNAP, short it.
Yeah I could see Nvidia at 200 dollars a share by years end, but right now I could also see it go down to 120 short term. Tomorrow will be interesting to see if any after hours downside continues or if it reverses. I might go in pretty deep in Nvidia if it gets into the 120s. One reason I transferred my Roth to vanguard is I can buy individual stocks alongside my etfs. Tax free growth appealing to me.
Maybe, but at more volatile market times like this it's better to look at technical data. Seems like amazon stock went under it's 100 day moving average at close. Now that doesn't mean it will stay under but if it does then I'd look at the 200 day moving average for the next bounce. What I found from stock charts website:
50 day moving average 996.94
100 day moving average 958.94
200 day moving average 879.74
If it gets back above 959 then it could move to 997 and need to see if it breaks that number on decent volume.
If it stalls somewhere under 959 and above 879 then 959 could be an upper wall.
I mean is your price target for Amazon stock is 20 years from now I wouldn't sell on any weakness but buy more and hold it.
I try to hold all my stocks in taxable for at least a year to pay short term capital gains.
50 day moving average 996.94
100 day moving average 958.94
200 day moving average 879.74
If it gets back above 959 then it could move to 997 and need to see if it breaks that number on decent volume.
If it stalls somewhere under 959 and above 879 then 959 could be an upper wall.
I mean is your price target for Amazon stock is 20 years from now I wouldn't sell on any weakness but buy more and hold it.
I try to hold all my stocks in taxable for at least a year to pay short term capital gains.
ClosingADoor
Member
God damn, tech sector. -5% on Tencent
SNAP -13% now. Not that I am ever going to buy that, but still.
Wonder if this is the moment to get some BABA and Nvidia, or if we are in for some more red days...
SNAP -13% now. Not that I am ever going to buy that, but still.
Wonder if this is the moment to get some BABA and Nvidia, or if we are in for some more red days...
There is mathematical logic to that, but I've noticed that amazon approaches 950 and always rebounds. It's doing that today in fact if only just. I think some algorithms somewhere are set to buy when it approaches 950 or something...
Lmao. Read the last 500 posts, surely you'll find an answer to that vague question.
ClosingADoor
Member
Advice about what exactly?
Basic rules are: don't mess with money you can't lose. Sort out your plan for retirement first in ETFs and such. Don't expect quick money (you'll only read about people doing well, not the ones taking losses, so don't think everyone is getting rich).
ya sorry about the vague question.
just wondering any recommended reading and things of that nature. already have an investing plan for retirement just wanted to diversify a bit but know very little about investing in stocks
SUBZERO-08
Member
Quick question for Canadians about buying ETFs through Questrade. I'm new so I haven't started yet and it may be a dumb question. If I want to buy a 25% of my portfolio in a specific ETF, and say that 25% would amount to $13,000 CAD or so, would I have any problems getting an order filled for that much for a single ETF?
Interesting following you guys talk about Tesla.
Careful about media hype. If you're relying on a media article to buy stock, remember that millions are reading the same article. That is how a stock gets overvalued. Media hype usually means it's too late to be getting in on the ground floor.
Tesla seems pretty safe though. They're more than just cars and showing nice growth. Weren't they the ones that have a solar panel roof tile? It's their other investments that might make Tesla more significant than electric cars. Especially when the competition starts getting serious.
Safe to say you're laughing if you got Tesla stock prior to '13. That was some fine value picking.
Careful about media hype. If you're relying on a media article to buy stock, remember that millions are reading the same article. That is how a stock gets overvalued. Media hype usually means it's too late to be getting in on the ground floor.
Tesla seems pretty safe though. They're more than just cars and showing nice growth. Weren't they the ones that have a solar panel roof tile? It's their other investments that might make Tesla more significant than electric cars. Especially when the competition starts getting serious.
Safe to say you're laughing if you got Tesla stock prior to '13. That was some fine value picking.
ClosingADoor
Member
You can go as deep as you want. There is tons of reading about technicals and such. Depends a bit on what you want to do. I think most people here just pick stocks they trust and see if it goes up.
I bought a whopping 10 shares of Nvidia finally at 155. See how it goes.
And a bit too my S&P500 ETF, but the stupid dollar/euro is a bit annoying for me there.
Short answer: No
Long Answer: I use it, I've done orders for that amount before and nope, not a problem at all. Depending on your ETF you'll probably have a bit of a spread with that volume (e.g. you likely won't find 13'000$ worth of stock x.TO available at 45.50/stock, but it'll be an assortment of 45.50, 45.51, 45.52 etc) if you order market. If you order by limit, it will fill as many at 45.50 as it can and the rest will be on hold until more is available. If the ETF is rising, you want a market order anyway though because you lose more by not buying a spread than by paying a penny more per stock.
Kind of. August is always tough to read because it's low volume month. Once September hits the big boys come back to trade daily.
I still think tech needs a bigger pullback not its also the strongest sector do it may not happen.
ClosingADoor
Member
NVIDIA and Tencent bouncing back. Friday just a bad day and back to new heights soon?