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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
infinitys_7th
Member
Would you recommend getting more Ally while it is down, or do you think a bigger correction is incoming?
BigBooper
Member
Howdy stranger. I'm at about 80% cash right now. Hadn't decided where to go with it yet. I can't plan on holding for long term. Good to seeya.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Man, what a bummer. Decided to splurge on stocks and 3 of them are down 10% in two weeks.
Thankfully, Lightspeed has been on fire so my portfolio is only down 1-2% since.
I dumped a large holding this morning I made decent money on. Might trend back to cash after selling some more soon.
Thankfully, Lightspeed has been on fire so my portfolio is only down 1-2% since.
I dumped a large holding this morning I made decent money on. Might trend back to cash after selling some more soon.
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ManofOne
Plus Member
I would cash out of ALLY or reduce positioning and go more into large caps. I reduced ALLY to 1.0% of my portfolio now.
ManofOne
Plus Member
I'm holding 23.0% cash. Waiting for a good buy in
Raven117
Member
That's my guess (as opposed to your analysis) as well.
infinitys_7th
Member
I got some MUR a while ago. Was looking at its forecasts and it appeared to be overvalued ($23 now versus a forecast of $21). But that's just very quick research. Was thinking about selling and putting in to buy at $19-$20 to catch any correction before it goes back up.
Commodities have been going down, so I might buy some more. I'm still up overall in VALE in my play money and VAW in my Roth, though they are off from where they were a week ago.
Any thoughts on Citigroup? Looks like it is down about -15% now from its recent high with bad earnings news incoming. I could put in a buy order for -20%, around $63.60.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
I've never had oil stocks.
You guys think it's worth getting into now even though oil companies have already rocketed up since Q4 2020? Or dont bother risking it as I'm too late to the party?
You guys think it's worth getting into now even though oil companies have already rocketed up since Q4 2020? Or dont bother risking it as I'm too late to the party?
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fighterman101
Banned
S&P 500 index fund is the way to go.
No, I will always invest into technology companies. They are going to boom especially when star link is a thing. Look into VGT, I think it is a good deal.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Bad day in markets but I'm only down about -0.3%. If this holds rest of day, I'll take it.
ManofOne
Plus Member
I never liked citi. They failed my BASEL test. I haven't checked on them for about a year now because of that I'm still long on JPM, MS, COF and others in the financials.
I'm looking at utilities and medical devices now.
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HawksWinStanley
Member
Buying JPM up on the slide down.
Could always just grab XLE and sit on it. It's below the 20 day SMA and showing a bit oversold right now. I've had it for a while, I like the holdings and the dividend. Expense ratio is a bit higher than I usually go for but I'm a cheap bitch and I still think it's more than reasonable.
godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
As someone who has only been buying growth tech stocks I haven’t seen this fluctuation. My portfolio is at ATH excluding Tesla. Why is inflation not affecting growth tech stocks yet? It seems like they got hit harder earlier in the year and now are recovering. Is that a correct assessment or am I missing the big picture?
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ManofOne
Plus Member
It has, qqq has rallied nearly 8.0% within the last month. Value and growth will always kill it in long term. I bought some BRK.B. and took some short positions on interest rate sensitive tech stocks. The 10 year looks to be undergoing a short squeeze right now but eventually it will hit that 2.0% - 2.2% mark by end of year.
godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Got it. If things tank I will just hold. My horizon for cashing out is 10+ years at least.
Also, I started reading this book on a friend’s recommendation. What do you think?
The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence: Mandelbrot, Benoit, Hudson, Richard L.: 9780465043576: Amazon.com: Books
Buy The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence on Amazon.com ✓ FREE SHIPPING on qualified orders
www.amazon.com
ManofOne
Plus Member
I've never read that but I've heard good things about it. I'll give it a try since I just finished another book.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Fuck it. Dumped my LSPD for a 10% gain. Second time making money. First time was 75%. Got lucky this time as it was down most of the time since i rebought it I think 6 months ago. It was down around 25-30% at one time. It zoomed back lately for a modest gainer and I'm out.
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ManofOne
Plus Member
As I said, Monday was gain day so hope ya'll bought on Friday. Cashed out some options on some high vol stocks.
Friday was settlement day so thats why the move was harsh.
HawksWinStanley
Member
Has anyone poked their head into this reddit thread detailing how 2008 will happen again? It's terrifying because it's believable and maybe even likely...and nothing we can really do about it.
crazepharmacist
Member
Crashes are just buying opportunities.
KingdomHeartsFan
Member
I talked to a financial advisor at my bank and we got on the topic of house prices and I said do you think 2008 will happen again when rates go up and people that bought at these insane prices can't keep up with their new payments? He said he doesn't think that will happen again because 1. the banks are way stricter about giving out mortgages than back then and 2. the banks have their stress tests now.
Edit: After reading the post what he's suggesting isn't a housing crash.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
For any of you meme stockers, keep an eye on Blackberry. I"ve already made money on it twice an have no holdings. But if it trickles back down to about $10-11 cdn (now at $15 cdn), I'm buying back in.
This stock has memed it twice from about $10 cdn to $20+ (where it rockets for a few days) and then the party's over and it trends back down to where it was.
This stock has memed it twice from about $10 cdn to $20+ (where it rockets for a few days) and then the party's over and it trends back down to where it was.
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zeorhymer
Member
Nope. Banks aren't lending to sub prime people. Corpos are buying up the properties and turning them into rentals. One of the ways for a crash is if no one rents in them or if there's a surge of building once again.
CrankyJay™
Member
Damn, I'm starting a new job next month.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Good to have stress tests. In theory giving out mortgages to deadbeats like the wild west should surge up home prices, but it'd be 2008 all over again at some point when rates rise in a year or two. It cant be record low rates forever.
Not sure what other country stress tests are, but Canada is this. Home prices are rocketing again, which is good since it means the quality of borrower should be better than 13 years ago. Since actual mortgage rates are low now (~2%), basically everyone has been grilled at 4.79% lately, and now will be 5.25%. But for anyone qualified for 4%, they'd need to prove 6%.
- The rate offered by your lender plus 2%; or
- 5.25% (up from 4.79% prior to June 1)
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CloudNull
Banned
Fantastic post.
I knew a crash was coming.... the writing has been on the walls for some time. This just goes to prove it.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Regarding global crisis of mortgages and such, I never truly followed what the core reasons were aside from people being over their heads. But was the real cause?
1. Banks giving out mortgages to people who werent qualified for it right off the bat. Day one in the hole
2. Banks giving out juicy introductory rates which worked, but when the real deal flipped to a higher rate, the people were over their heads
3. Banks giving out mortgages as normal, but there was a giant rate spike at the time nobody saw coming so suddenly people's variable rate mortgages and fixed rate renewals were fucked
4. All of the above?
1. Banks giving out mortgages to people who werent qualified for it right off the bat. Day one in the hole
2. Banks giving out juicy introductory rates which worked, but when the real deal flipped to a higher rate, the people were over their heads
3. Banks giving out mortgages as normal, but there was a giant rate spike at the time nobody saw coming so suddenly people's variable rate mortgages and fixed rate renewals were fucked
4. All of the above?
HawksWinStanley
Member
Well his post is focused on the derivatives market and how it's spiraling out of control much like the mortgage lending in '08, but seemingly it's exponentially worse. So it's not like 2008 in regard to the housing market, it's derivatives that are leading the charge this time. People will likely lose their homes much like in '08 though so I guess that's another similarity.
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CloudNull
Banned
Watch The Big Short. The movie explains the subprime mortgage crisis in an incredible way.
A bunch of shit loans were packaged in funds and given AAA ratings causing overconfidence in a deck of cards market.
1 and 2 really. 1 led to 2 though. Why would the banks do 1? Because the government forced them to do it. So the government forced 1 and that led to 2. Them together led to the banks doing the whole MBS fuckery to make money off the bad loans.
KingdomHeartsFan
Member
Yea its getting close to boiling over. Look at the increase in margin debt from last year to this year
Margin Statistics
Pursuant to FINRA Rule 4521, FINRA member firms carrying margin accounts for customers are required to submit the following customer information: the total of all debit balances in securities margin accounts; and, the total of all free credit balances in all cash accounts and all securities...
HawksWinStanley
Member
I don't know how you even protect yourself from something like this. It seems like it's going to be worse than last time and everybody is now over a decade closer to retirement than they were in 2008. I'm in my mid 30s so I likely wouldn't sell a thing and just DCA my way through it (assuming I stay employed) but I'd worry a lot about my parents who are both retired now.Yea its getting close to boiling over. Look at the increase in margin debt from last year to this year
Were gonna hit 1 trillion at this rate in less than a year which is unheard of.Margin Statistics
Pursuant to FINRA Rule 4521, FINRA member firms carrying margin accounts for customers are required to submit the following customer information: the total of all debit balances in securities margin accounts; and, the total of all free credit balances in all cash accounts and all securities...www.finra.org
godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
I am having some immense fomo to increase my positions. My full tech portfolio is all green.
Is it really going to tank soon?
Is it really going to tank soon?
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GHG
Member
Do whatever is comfortable for you but don't go overboard on the position sizes.
I have a personal rule that no one position should exceed 10% of my portfolio but everyone is different in this regard.
godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
GHG
Member
Seriously don't, there will always be more opportunities.
The general trend of the market at the moment is very much sideways. More dips will come, everything is hypersensitive right now.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
A curiousity post about play money investment here -
If you had $100 what would you invest it?
How about $1,000?
How about $10,000?
I've been considering some micro/day trading to see how I'd go, of course play money. Which made me curious what GAFfers would invest in based on levels of play money and expected returns?
If you had $100 what would you invest it?
How about $1,000?
How about $10,000?
I've been considering some micro/day trading to see how I'd go, of course play money. Which made me curious what GAFfers would invest in based on levels of play money and expected returns?
crazepharmacist
Member
So I have my taxable brokerage at Schwab. I really like Schwab's interface. Never really had a complaint.
I also have my retirement account (403b) at Fidelity. No real complaints with the user interface there but I definitely like Schwab's UI better.
Now I have my ROTH IRA over at my dad's brokerage at Janney. I just transferred it there for him to manage but I really fucking hate the interface. Can't even see % total gain, only $. Nor can I see what % allocation of my portfolio for each position. So now I'm planning on moving it either back to Schwab or I was thinking to consolidate my retirement accounts (403b+ROTH IRA) at Fidelity.
Do you guys prefer Schwab or Fidelity? I think the mutual fund choices at Fidelity are in a league of their own. But then again, it's my retirement account and I'm not retiring for another like 40 years. I'm just trying to do low cost index investing like total market funds for my retirement accounts. Which I think Schwab has covered with SWTSX and SWISX
I also have my retirement account (403b) at Fidelity. No real complaints with the user interface there but I definitely like Schwab's UI better.
Now I have my ROTH IRA over at my dad's brokerage at Janney. I just transferred it there for him to manage but I really fucking hate the interface. Can't even see % total gain, only $. Nor can I see what % allocation of my portfolio for each position. So now I'm planning on moving it either back to Schwab or I was thinking to consolidate my retirement accounts (403b+ROTH IRA) at Fidelity.
Do you guys prefer Schwab or Fidelity? I think the mutual fund choices at Fidelity are in a league of their own. But then again, it's my retirement account and I'm not retiring for another like 40 years. I'm just trying to do low cost index investing like total market funds for my retirement accounts. Which I think Schwab has covered with SWTSX and SWISX
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Raven117
Member
I don't know about DCA, but I am going to invest my way through it at a steady amount per month...Discipline pays off in spades in the long run when things are garbage.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Despite a few clunkers I bought that are at -10%, I'm at my all time high due to some others creeping up.
Ben Affleck Quote: “They say money can't buy happiness? Look at the smile on my face. Ear to ear, baby!”
Ben Affleck Quote: “They say money can't buy happiness? Look at the smile on my face. Ear to ear, baby!”
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Dumped two big holdings. I'm going to hold tight what I got. Right now about 33% cash for my trading portfolios. I might even sell another one which I've got lucky making 10% in 2 weeks making it 40% cash.
I dont want to miss out on scooping up cheap stocks if there's another meltdown. Missed it last time as I was all in, and needed around 6 months just to get back to pre-covid levels where I reached that point somewhere in September.
Problem is I don't see a catalyst unless inflation keeps jumping and everyone bandwagons that as a sell off factor. It hasnt happened yet despite inflation spikes lately.
I dont want to miss out on scooping up cheap stocks if there's another meltdown. Missed it last time as I was all in, and needed around 6 months just to get back to pre-covid levels where I reached that point somewhere in September.
Problem is I don't see a catalyst unless inflation keeps jumping and everyone bandwagons that as a sell off factor. It hasnt happened yet despite inflation spikes lately.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Market is still blazing. Love it.
HoodWinked
Member
friday last week was definitely a good soft buy, been a solid week so far. portfolio crept to all time high for me.
still sad about missing the bottom on PTON i was like maybe 2 cents away from limit order and now its gone up 40%
still sad about missing the bottom on PTON i was like maybe 2 cents away from limit order and now its gone up 40%
ManofOne
Plus Member
So tip trade of the week. If you were like me you bought re opening stocks (not a large percentage of your portoflio), mostly mall and clothing stocks have been rallying for good cause.
Up 73.0% on my clothes and malls stock combined (will be cashing out soon). EXPR for example has been on a good run (still not a good company to invest over the long term)
Up 73.0% on my clothes and malls stock combined (will be cashing out soon). EXPR for example has been on a good run (still not a good company to invest over the long term)