Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Lol damn, what polls are they looking at?!

I mean, based on my math the post is optimistic but not totally incorrect.. the gap will close? Erased? I doubt it but it will be a close race and the map does get easier for Sanders.

I thought his biggest enemy was time, but the lack of gain in the South might mean it's more than just time. He might have a limit in appeal.

Also, young people not voting enough.
 
Anything that gets posted will be rationalized and ignored so i will try a different approach.

Wall street and lobbyists for other industries are smart people. When they donate, they are making an investment.

Why would they give all this money to Clinton if they dont see it as an investment?

Is your argument that Clinton is taking all this money but then turns around and tricks them by not doing anything in return? WHY DO THEY KEEP DONATING THEN?

I think Jon Stewart explained the double standard pretty well

if money corrupts the process and you have to get money then you're being corrupted by the process. "no, it corrupts them." why doesn't it corrupt you? "we're not corruptible." really? because that's what an insane person would say.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFm_HSaz2Xw
 
I think Jon Stewart explained it pretty well



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFm_HSaz2Xw

I mean... it's so obvious yet folks can rationalize that rubio is corrupted by big oil in a way Clinton is immune from Wall Street.
Hillary's against it...


I do believe deep down she is against it. Im sure deep down she doesn't like having to race Money and pander to special interests to get elected. The system rigs the balance against Democrats currently. Again i do believe she is against it..

Now. Can you honestly say that if elected she will make the corrupting influence of money in politics a big part of her platform? Can you honestly say this? I strongly doubt it. Obama is a very good reference point.

As a contrast, this has become the central point to the Bernie campaign. That is the difference.
 
I think his point is that it is FAR closer to zero than even remotely feasible, and it is fair delusional to think otherwise. According to 538, Hillary has like a 98/99% chance of winning everything up to March 15th, where Bernie needs not only wins but BIG wins to even remain viable. He needs to win by like 7 or 8 points in every race her on out just to tie Hillary in delegates (not counting supers). Hillary is -3300 currently on Bet365. Even Trump who most will concede is going to win at this point is -700.

So yes, it isn't impossible but it basically is. I don't mind the blind optimism, but the vitriolic, desperate hate being tossed at Hillary from Bernie supporters feels so dumb. Like someone drowning kicking up one last time to breath.

I'm not arguing that it's not delusional. I just don't appreciate the dissemination of misinformation, so I do my best to stop it.

Anyway, as I stated before, the reddit users are delusional, but they're also politically engaged and actively supporting their candidate. They're essentially an extension of Bernie's campaign, and as long as they're working/volunteering themselves for him, I'd say that they should tell themselves whatever they need to in order to sustain morale and stay motivated.
 
Hillary's against it...

And if she can win the general election, then nominate a Supreme Court justice that can see it overturned, she will have done immense good for the country. So I'm not too opposed to President Clinton. It just takes a measure of swallowing the bitter medicine that she's the "best" candidate in a system which is currently corrupted to its core.
 
Democrats do poorly in midterms because they never vote in them. It is like most Democrats don't understand how elections work. It is not every four years but every 2 years.

Indeed.

Like I was saying, Part of the problem is that Dem politicians in the midterms ran as far away from Obama as they could, giving their voters no reason to vote for them other than not have a Repub in office. Maybe if these politicians embraced the president their voters helped re-elect, then they may be in office right now.


The worst part of the Hillary hater demographic are those that attribute laws signed by her husband to her. Meanwhile, they totally forget that she was the face of UHC in the 90s, among many other liberal/progressive agendas.

But Hillary is relying, in part, upon Bill's record for her candidacy. Her husband is actively campaigning for her. Otherwise, her experience isn't much to brag about.

And yes, Hillary was the face of a failed UHC bill during her husband's presidency....further proving how she's using Bill's record for her candidacy.
 
Anything that gets posted will be rationalized and ignored so i will try a different approach.

Wall street and lobbyists for other industries are smart people. When they donate, they are making an investment.

So if we agree that people on Wall Street are smart, why are guys like Tom Ricketts, Ken Griffith, and Paul Singer spending hundreds of thousands of dollars running fake "attack ads" to make Sanders look good? Maybe its because they know he'd be a disaster in the general and pave the way for a Republican much more favorable to them than Clinton?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/23/bernie-sanders-s-conservative-fanboys.html
 
The worst part of the Hillary hater demographic are those that attribute laws signed by her husband to her. Meanwhile, they totally forget that she was the face of UHC in the 90s, among many other liberal/progressive agendas.

This is absolutely illegitimate criticism. She's running on Bill's record in addition to her own. So she should get to take the good and not the bad?
 
I'm not arguing that it's not delusional. I just don't appreciate the dissemination of misinformation, so I do my best to stop it.

Anyway, as I stated before, the reddit users are delusional, but they're also politically engaged and actively supporting their candidate. They're essentially an extension of Bernie's campaign, and as long as they're working/volunteering themselves for him, I'd say that they should tell themselves whatever they need to in order to sustain morale and stay motivated.

At this point it has gone to full blown insanity though, with claims that they will boycott Clinton after her nom and that they will elect Trump since he is the better option and 'revolt' against the government. It's so childish and it just sounds like arguments from people that have never voted in an election or know how government works. Here is what I typed in response to one such poster on there:

If Bernie can't even get enough people out to vote to beat Hillary in primaries, what the hell will a 'revolt' do? He had a great run, but it just isn't there. Obama created way more energy and had way more support, and it was still impossible for him to do much after congress was lost. So I will say again, what the hell will a 'revolt' do?

My prediction: Bernie doesn't win the nom. Crazed supporters throw their tantrum by not voting for Hillary and calling for a revolt. 6 months later nothing has changed and all the supporters have moved on in search of dank memes. They will skip every election between now and the next big presidential run in 8 years, and they will immediately jump aboard the next bandwagon on reddit promising unicorns and fairies to everyone in America. Or legalized pot
 
He still can't admit that this is Trump's nomination to lose.

This has to be affecting his credibility.... Only because he seems to be ignoring the mountains of data suggesting that Trump has a pretty clear path to the nomination, barring some kind of back room RNC shenanigans.

I don't like Harry Enten as an analyst. He'll always say, "Look at the delegate math" when it comes to Clinton/Sanders, which is correct, but he refuses to do the same for the GOP race, even with David Wasserman on the same site actually doing the math for him.

Harry Enten sucks.
 
For candidates to be effectively and honestly supported by Sanders, they have to be running on progressive ideas and govern progressively first. His campaign is based on integrity. His base consists of internet savvy young people. A Sanders nod without substance behind it will be COMPLETELY worthless. People don't blindly support Bernie. This guy was pretty much unknown a year ago. They support him because of his vision and ideas.

Of course. It should be a strategic goal of his to help build the Progressive Caucus within the Senate. If I were him it would be the legacy I'd most want to leave behind.

I've followed Bernie for years. The Presidency is not where he's going to leave his mark. His mark will be building a strong progressive coalition within the Democratic party. That's where his ultimate focus should be. Doing the work that is required to pave the way for a progressive President with the legislative support to make things happen.
 
Anything that gets posted will be rationalized and ignored so i will try a different approach.

Wall street and lobbyists for other industries are smart people. When they donate, they are making an investment.

Why would they give all this money to Clinton if they dont see it as an investment?

Is your argument that Clinton is taking all this money but then turns around and tricks them by not doing anything in return? WHY DO THEY KEEP DONATING THEN?

Just because people work in a industry does not mean that their individual political contributions are made on behalf of that industry. Gasp, some people who work for that industry might actually like Hillary's various political positions and donate to her with their own personal money.

Are you voting for Bernie based on what your employer and industry are telling you? If not, why not?
 
So if we agree that people on Wall Street are smart, why are guys like Tom Ricketts, Ken Griffith, and Paul Singer spending hundreds of thousands of dollars running fake "attack ads" to make Sanders look good? Maybe its because they know he'd be a disaster in the general and pave the way for a Republican much more favorable to them than Clinton?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/23/bernie-sanders-s-conservative-fanboys.html

So you concede the point and we are now changing the topic. Frustratingly dishonest discussion here.

To your new topic. Sure, it's possible that they think sanders will lose, just like they think Clinton will be a positive investment.

Polls show sanders doing better head to head but again, that is another topic...
 
Can someone tell me the issue with Massachusetts to a non-american?

People vote in buildings. You aren't allowed to campaign in or near those buildings in Massachusetts. Bill Clinton was in one of those buildings in Massachusetts. Bill Clinton does not vote in Massachusetts, he votes in another state. Bill Clinton was in one of those buildings in Massachusetts for some reason. That reason most likely being campaigning. This is against the law in Massachusetts.
 
At this point it has gone to full blown insanity though, with claims that they will boycott Clinton after her nom and that they will elect Trump since he is the better option and 'revolt' against the government. It's so childish and it just sounds like arguments from people that have never voted in an election or know how government works. Here is what I typed in response to one such poster on there:

If Bernie can't even get enough people out to vote to beat Hillary in primaries, what the hell will a 'revolt' do? He had a great run, but it just isn't there. Obama created way more energy and had way more support, and it was still impossible for him to do much after congress was lost. So I will say again, what the hell will a 'revolt' do?

My prediction: Bernie doesn't win the nom. Crazed supporters throw their tantrum by not voting for Hillary and calling for a revolt. 6 months later nothing has changed and all the supporters have moved on in search of dank memes. They will skip every election between now and the next big presidential run in 8 years, and they will immediately jump aboard the next bandwagon on reddit promising unicorns and fairies to everyone in America. Or legalized pot

And those are all valid things to criticize them for. I just think that them delusionally having hope in their candidate, as they campaign for him, is totally fine as long as it keeps them motivated and politically engaged.
 
Just because people work in a industry does not mean that their individual political contributions are made on behalf of that industry. Gasp, some people who work for that industry might actually like Hillary's various political positions and donate to her with their own personal money.

Are you voting for Bernie based on what your employer and industry are telling you? If not, why not?

Oh sure. But it's not individuals donating to Hillary only but the corporations themselves. You know this right?

And even to your point, when an individual gives more his voice gets amplified. You are not going to cater equally to constituents but cater to those who give more.

It's not just corporate money that is the problem. It's all money.
 
I'm hopeful that when she locks up the nomination in a few months, that she will be able to pull the sanders supporters in with her and get some of excitement they have. She will need it for the GE. Trump has so much coverage and excitement over him, and typically in election years like that, when you have a buzz to your campaign, you win. Romney didn't win because he was the most boring person alive.
 
Can someone tell me the issue with Massachusetts to a non-american?

Bill Clinton held a thing near a polling station, people think it illegally won Hillary Massachusetts.

It should also be noted that not only did Hillary win the state, but that one polling booth wouldn't of changed anything as the gap was too big, and the booth was in an area where Hillary crushed Sanders. Furthermore, it was not illegal. It was kind of shitty though, as it made people wait longer to vote.
 
People vote in buildings. You aren't allowed to campaign in or near those buildings in Massachusetts. Bill Clinton was in one of those buildings in Massachusetts. Bill Clinton does not vote in Massachusetts, he votes in another state. Bill Clinton was in one of those buildings in Massachusetts for some reason. That reason most likely being campaigning. This is against the law in Massachusetts.

Ah okay. So he will be investigated?
 
Bill Clinton held a thing near a polling station, people think it illegally won Hillary Massachusetts.

It should also be noted that not only did Hillary win the state, but that one polling booth wouldn't of changed anything as the gap was too big, and the booth was in an area where Hillary crushed Sanders. Furthermore, it was not illegal. It was kind of shitty though, as it made people wait longer to vote.

I do think it violated the rules, but it was inconsequential. People have a right to call him out. A slap on the wrist is enough
 
Um, she's actually distanced herself a great deal from her husband's record. She's running on Obama's record dude.

Hillary is absolutely running on Bill's economic record, especially middle-class growth during his presidency:

“I am probably still going to pick the flowers and china for state dinners and stuff like that, but I will certainly turn to him” to provide advice, she said, on “how we’re going to get the economy working for everybody, which he knows a little about.”

but she's distanced himself from his dated, objectionable social stances (DOMA, 94 crime bill). Lately we've been talking more about those social issues because the black vote has been a difference maker for her, but we've largely let her cherry-pick from Bill's reign, which we probably shouldn't have.
 
Updated delegate estimates:

Clinton - 596 (goal - 529) +12% above expectations (+457 super delegates) 1,053 total
Sanders 399 (goal 492) -19% below expectations (+22 super delegates) 421 total

Trump - 322 (goal - 297) + 8% above expectations
Cruz - 221 (goal - 384) -41% below expectations
Rubio - 115 (goal - 242) - 50% below expectations

I did the % roughly in my head
 
Hillary is running on both Obama's and Bill's record of economic growth. She said it a lot early on. "The economy does better with a Democrat in the White House."

While correlation doesn't equal causation, it's hard to argue with Bill and Obama's record.
 
Updated delegate estimates:

Clinton - 596 (goal - 529) +12% above expectations (+457 super delegates) 1,053 total
Sanders 399 (goal 492) -19% below expectations (+22 super delegates) 421 total

Trump - 322 (goal - 297) + 8% above expectations
Cruz - 221 (goal - 384) -41% below expectations
Rubio - 115 (goal - 242) - 50% below expectations

I did the % roughly in my head

So both the Democratic and Republican races are effectively over? I hadn't followed the GOP as much, but Trump actually over-performed? I did watch Fox News's interview with Rubio last night. They were hard on him and he was basically in a sweaty panic.
 
So you concede the point and we are now changing the topic. Frustratingly dishonest discussion here.

To your new topic. Sure, it's possible that they think sanders will lose, just like they think Clinton will be a positive investment.

Polls show sanders doing better head to head but again, that is another topic...

Dishonest you say? How, by not obeying whatever random boundaries you put around a topic? I thought we were discussing how Wall Street money influences elections. The fact that several of the largest donors are funding a SuperPac in order to support the Sanders campaign is surely relevant.

In addition to the point that they're doing this to get their preferred candidate in office, which you brush aside, doesn't it also show that Clinton is far less favorable to their interests than one of the Republicans? Instead of the binary choice you are creating, they are operating in a spectrum of outcomes and have decided that the worst one is Hillary getting the Democratic nomination, which surely goes against your belief that Wall Street money has a disproportionate influence on her?
 
Updated delegate estimates:

Clinton - 596 (goal - 529) +12% above expectations (+457 super delegates) 1,053 total
Sanders 399 (goal 492) -19% below expectations (+22 super delegates) 421 total

Trump - 322 (goal - 297) + 8% above expectations
Cruz - 221 (goal - 384) -41% below expectations
Rubio - 115 (goal - 242) - 50% below expectations

I did the % roughly in my head

So despite the narrative being driven Cruz actually had a bad night? I'm assuming him having such a high goal here is cause the Super Tuesday States were supposed to be his firewall and where he had by far the most support.
 
I don't want to go down this tired track again but here goes. So Bill and Hillary Clinton have received millions in speaking fees and donations from Wall Street/big banking. For instance, here is a list of Hillary's top donors. It takes an extreme naivete to believe that investors and bankers donating large sums of money do so without any expectation of a return on that investment. On the other hand, does that mean she will always side with the big banks? No, I don't believe that. But it's worrying nonetheless when you consider how this may influence her policy as president.
It does not take extreme naivete when banks and investors have been doing this for decades, on both sides of the isle, and at least as it pertains to the POTUS have gotten very little for their money. Goldman Sachs being Obama's largest donor didn't stop him from pushing CFPB through and all the wailing and gnashing of teeth from Republicans, Wall St. Journal op eds, etc. didn't stop Obama from eventually getting his appointed chairman through, giving it the centralized power structure that makes the SEC and FDIC such pushovers.

So a POTUS allegedly bought and paid for by big bank campaign contributions dropped the biggest bomb on big banks of the last god knows how may years. What?

Again, where's the meat. Taking money given through a legal donation system isn't corruption. Show where political favoritism was given in return for these donations. It's a vacuous, irresponsible claim until you do.

We have got to get money out of politics. Do you really think that politics are better off in America with all of our elected officials being beholden to these moneyed interests? Why should one billionaire have more of a voice than a million of his fellow citizens?
We definitely need to realign campaign finance and roll back the ability for large corporations or wealthy private donors from having so much influence on the electoral system, totally agree. What I don't agree with is the targeting. Saying you're going duck hunting is one thing, aiming at a flock of geese when you're out "duck hunting" is something else entirely.

The least important office with regards to money in politics is the POTUS. Obama was a financial underdog to Hillary in their primary, he won. Obama was a financial underdog to McCain and Romney with their SuperPAC edge, he still won. Donald Trump has spent less money in total than Cruz, Rubio, Bush, etc. each spent in Iowa alone. He's rolling over the field. Presidential politics get so much media attention that beyond establishing the infrastructure (a relatively modest eight figure sum most likely) the rest is just pushing out white noise.

And once in office the POTUS has a pretty clear responsibility to govern for ALL of the people and the vast majority of them have, to the best of their ability, attempted to do so. You can't buy the POTUS (at least, not since Warren Harding left office), no one becomes POTUS for financial gain. The ego and self-assuredness required to run for and win the presidency is only found in people who's primary goal is to make their mark on history. Legacy is the driving concern, not appeasing donors.

Banks and other corporations hit the POTUS election cycle particularly hard because it is an easy time to throw money at the parties gaining general party favor but in reality having exposed themselves to very little accusation of direct influence on any particular politician (a bad look for corporations as well as politicians, FYI). The influence of money on politics is on people like Debbie Wasserman Shultz where as DNC chair she has a strong agenda to maximize party fundraising and will then do things like taking a hard stance against CFPB. She can't really do anything about it, but it makes it easier for her to extort money from the banks when in return they get a recognizable (D) name to oppose CFPB in some capacity.

The fix for money in politics doesn't even start with money in politics. It starts with congressional term limits. When more congresspeople and senators stop worrying about their next election and instead their legacy during their time in office donors will inherently have less power, both with the individuals currently in office and with the near future replacement who is free of their influence.

That and state level campaign finance and redistricting reform is where the revolution really needs to occur, which is the entire goddamn problem with Sanders. He's done nothing substantive to fix anything other than prop up a straw man all the fringe left can wack at for no gain but with real potential to create a wedge in the democratic party that either costs voters or leads to future national elections being conducted with a clear disadvantage against an opponent entirely in favor of using every loophole and PAC possible to maximize the influence of monied parties on the system. If he truly gave a shit he'd end his campaign now that it is clear Clinton is winning and devote all of his current/future contributions and campaigning efforts to getting good candidates into state and local seats. That way in 8 years when someone to the left of Clinton (and probably Sanders) is the nominee they would actually have the national base of support to pass something worthwhile.
 
Hillary is running on both Obama's and Bill's record of economic growth. She said it a lot early on. "The economy does better with a Democrat in the White House."

While correlation doesn't equal causation, it's hard to argue with Bill and Obama's record.

Hillary is running on what ever record you want her to be.

WhichHillary.jpg
 
Not looking good for Bernie. I want to say his campaign has been worth it, but the really low voter turnout in the under 30s is concerning. Young people need to get more engaged about politics and actually vote. The GoP's only path to victory is low voter turnout from left and moderate voters

The worst part of the Hillary hater demographic are those that attribute laws signed by her husband to her. Meanwhile, they totally forget that she was the face of UHC in the 90s, among many other liberal/progressive agendas.

I think this is a very common misconception. In reality Hillary is only slightly more moderate than Bernie.
 
So both the Democratic and Republican races are effectively over? I hadn't followed the GOP as much, but Trump actually over-performed? I did watch Fox News's interview with Rubio last night. They were hard on him and he was basically in a sweaty panic.

On the Republican side, Trump is almost certainly going to get the most delegates. Its unclear if the other candidates can keep him from getting a majority. If he can't they could try to do a brokered convention and throw it to someone else.
 
So despite the narrative being driven Cruz actually had a bad night? I'm assuming him having such a high goal here is cause the Super Tuesday States were supposed to be his firewall and where he had by far the most support.

Yeah, I've actually heard a few media outlets admitting Cruz did terribly, remember he was suppose to win the southern states, instead he's only won a few. I mean it's good if he came in as an outsider or these were unexpected/surprise wins, but it's far lower than he expected months ago.

Rubio of course did the worst.
 
Oh sure. But it's not individuals donating to Hillary only but the corporations themselves. You know this right?

I never denied corporation were. I was talking about individuals.

And even to your point, when an individual gives more his voice gets amplified. You are not going to cater equally to constituents but cater to those who give more.
Your saying because someone works for, in your example, for Wallstreet, they individually cannot donate to Hilliary for women's issues, autism, or race issues, etc because of their association with Wall Street? Are all the people who work for Wall Street corrupt? Or they should not be able to donate or vote because you/Bernie have declared they are all corrupt?

It's not just corporate money that is the problem. It's all money.

Following your logic, only the voice of one's employer matters. So tell me, what industry are you shilling for when you give Bernie money. ALL MONEY is the problem, that would included individual donations to Bernie as well.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom