I'm not, nor have I ever been mad at black people as a whole for not supporting Sanders, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I have been perplexed about it. This really spelled things out for me. I mean, I guess I could ask for citations and whatnot, but I really don't have much of a reason to not believe that poster. As an ardent Sanders supporter, I hold no ill will toward those who support Hillary, and I'll definitely support her in the general should it come to that. Thanks for sharing.
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
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silvermember
Banned
Democrats do poorly in midterms because they never vote in them. It is like most Democrats don't understand how elections work. It is not every four years but every 2 years.
excelsiorlef
Member
As has been said many times, if the rest of the country is comparable to South Carolina, Clinton meets personally with black community leaders and Sanders has not. Makes a difference.
I think there's a cult of personality thing going on with a lot of Hillary supporters (and Bernie supporters). Instead of seeing any kind of reason or weighing facts, they just double down on their defense. You can tell when you see posters calling out what-about-isms then doing it themselves after when somebody calls out their choice candidate.
It's a bummer really, because I wish people would just be objective as possible but instead it's more of a team sport competitive thing.
It's Bernie's fault for not doing a good job of communicating with the black community, to be frank. I love (nearly) everything he stands for, but he's been awful at clearly showing why the things he's fighting for will help minorities, especially poor ones.
silvermember
Banned
Politics is extremely personal asking people to be objective is nearly impossible.
I just wish both sides did not automatically assume the other is stupid, "not getting the message" or naive for voting a specific candidate.
Or maybe his message isn't what blacks are looking for. Economic equality is a nice thing but it won't save you from systematic racism, which is currently the most important issue for blacks. Not only that but it seems like he doesn't get that basic premise. Economic equality is a basic Democrats platform, Bernie Sanders isn't doing something special except making it HIS most important issue. While that might resonant with whites, it apparently doesn't resonant with blacks. Economic equality while it will help, won't save blacks from getting killed with impunity. Besides it is always better to go with the devil you know, than another who doesn't get it.
brainchild
Banned
My point is that this is not about political analysis to them. It's about banding together and doing their best to help their candidate win, despite the odds. You don't do that by carrying the same tone that you guys are carrying.
I've seen the Bernie reddit. It's not simply a discussion like we're having, it's a movement. They're 100% right in their approach, as it's keeping them motivated to try.
You don't know what the hell you're talking about. Those reddit users ARE getting involved beyond reddit and they've been doing a damned good job supporting their candidate so far.
I refuse to let you guys get away with talking shit about them without showing the whole picture.
They're [publicly] doing a hell of a lot more to support their candidate than any thread I've seen on this forum, so give these kids some credit for Pete's sake.
Your Entertainer
Member
You have got to be kidding me if you are denying that money has ever influenced a political decision - Clinton is absolutely is not exempt from this. Are you for or against Citizens United?
Her stated policy position in this campaign, which favors her donors, isn't enough evidence for you that these donations may influence her policy? Her husband's history of signing bills into law, not enough for you? Ok. That's a strong reality distortion field that you have there.
Agreed, there's a lot of blind-eyed support from both sides. And a lot of people seem to be very emotionally invested in the Democratic primary. The general election, that makes more sense, but Bernie and Hillary are more alike than not... and the ways they differ aren't IMO worth getting nasty about.
Cancer is cureable in many situations. Bernie's ability to win the Democratic nomination are ZERO. He has to win 59% of all remaining delegates (including super) with the remaining calendar and where she leads is mathematically impossible.
This isn't cancer, its incurable cancer that spread through the entire body in its final stages.
Bernie supports holding out hope is like a family holding out hope when their loved one has cancer throughout the entire body and has fallen into a coma and the doctor is advising them to pull the plug.
At this point its just cruel to try to lead them on.
I see it two ways. Hillary supporters see Bernie as being damaging overall for the dems at this point (Because he won't win the nom) and are getting frustrated.
Bernie supporters seem angry at Clinton, but the vitriol coming from them is far worse.
He still can't admit that this is Trump's nomination to lose.
This has to be affecting his credibility.... Only because he seems to be ignoring the mountains of data suggesting that Trump has a pretty clear path to the nomination, barring some kind of back room RNC shenanigans.
boiled goose
good with gravy
I just did the Delegate math and things are looking tough for Sanders.
That said I think it will be a tighter race than 2008. Clinton lost by -166 delegates in 2008. I have Sanders to lose with a projected -144 loss. So yeah, people saying he should drop out, might be getting ahead of themselves. If he starts doing worse than projected then he should, but if he starts beating expectations he should ride it till the end.
He can still win, but he has to start outperforming expectations, not meeting them. So far he hasnt really outperformed the optimistic scenario. I mean it is totally doable. Swings in big states could mean a 50 delegate swing. It will be close...
His biggest losses will come in Louisiana and Mississippi, as expected. After that he will probably lose big states like Florida, New York, California. The rest of the map looks very favorable for him. A big upset in a big state could mean the race. He just has to keep it close.
It is not Sanders's supporters fault that Hillary does not appeal to them. This is an election. Unfair attacks can be called out, but valid attacks, well, that is totally fair game.
That said I think it will be a tighter race than 2008. Clinton lost by -166 delegates in 2008. I have Sanders to lose with a projected -144 loss. So yeah, people saying he should drop out, might be getting ahead of themselves. If he starts doing worse than projected then he should, but if he starts beating expectations he should ride it till the end.
He can still win, but he has to start outperforming expectations, not meeting them. So far he hasnt really outperformed the optimistic scenario. I mean it is totally doable. Swings in big states could mean a 50 delegate swing. It will be close...
His biggest losses will come in Louisiana and Mississippi, as expected. After that he will probably lose big states like Florida, New York, California. The rest of the map looks very favorable for him. A big upset in a big state could mean the race. He just has to keep it close.
It is not Sanders's supporters fault that Hillary does not appeal to them. This is an election. Unfair attacks can be called out, but valid attacks, well, that is totally fair game.
I believe the poster is more referring to the fact that under 30 voter turnout yesterday, from reports I saw yesterday, was very low.
vainglorious
Member
There's also this persistent idea within Democratic voters that the president has more power than they actually do. I keep getting glimpses of it from Bernie supporters who rationalize Bernie's ability to move legislation through Congress.
One thing Hillary is doing that Bernie is not is sharing her campaign data and funds with local state parties. Her campaign has created victory funds in states like Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Texas - so if she wins the Democratic nomination, a portion of money her campaign has raised will instead be transferred to those states to assist Democrats jockeying for seats in Congress or positions at the state level.
Clinton is using her campaign to directly fund downticket races that we desperately need to rebuild the Democratic coalition after the devastation of 2010's mid-term election and subsequent gerrymandering - and no one's talking about it.
When he beats expectations it's like 1 or 2 delegates, Hillary is beating them across the board, getting 10+ delegates more than expected in some states.
I think 144 loss is best case scenario for Bernie.
brainchild
Banned
Well, you're just flat out wrong, so I'll post what I said in another thread where someone made a similar implication
brainchild said:
So no, his chances aren't ZERO. If you want to emphasize that point, I will gladly prove you wrong about it, every time.
That has nothing to do with the reddit users that we were actually talking about.
He's not. For fuck's sake.
LegendofJoe
Member
I'm hoping Bernie will share his campaign money with other progressive candidates in winnable elections. If we win the Presidency and flip the Senate the Supreme Court will be progressive for the first time in most of our lifetimes. And hopefully we'll be able to make some headway in taking back state legislatures as well.
boiled goose
good with gravy
When he beats expectations it's like 1 or 2 delegates, Hillary is beating them across the board, getting 10+ delegates more than expected in some states.
I think 144 loss is best case scenario for Bernie.
Yup a fair point. Hillary is certainly doing better and Sanders doing worse in the South. He is getting crushed there. The question is if this trend will hold for other states. As you said, simply matching expectations is not enough given his larger than desired deficit at this point.
What I dont get is that many outlets are calling it over, while other more progressive outlets are saying we still have a race. To me the truth is in between. Not quite a 50/50 race from my interpretation of the math, but not "over" yet.
For candidates to be effectively and honestly supported by Sanders, they have to be running on progressive ideas and govern progressively first. His campaign is based on integrity. His base consists of internet savvy young people. A Sanders nod without substance behind it will be COMPLETELY worthless. People don't blindly support Bernie. This guy was pretty much unknown a year ago. They support him because of his vision and ideas.
LOL. A real live one, in the flesh and blood. Thought I'd never see one.
It's also that as well but what they did during the last midterms was just stupid though and made no sense. ACA was working and people were benefiting from that. Instead of talking it up it's actual success they ran from it and Obama and lost.
I agree with Nate Silver on this, something crazy needs to happen for a shift to Sanders. IMO we've heard his playbook, I don't feel he's got anything fresh to add to his campaign to sway the tide.
And then, towards the end, if he isn't making considerable in roads and beating expectations, those super delegates are going to stay with Hillary. I mean heck I think the majority would even if it was a tie.
yeh it's not zero. It just relies now on something insane, like Jesus endorsing Bernie Sanders tonight, or Clinton getting embroiled in a scandal with Huma Abedin, or aliens abducting Hillary. You're totes right, not zero percent. But I think it's safe to say when your best odds of winning rely on the other candidate materializing Medusa snakes in her hair, it's over. By all means, stay in as long as he likes. Bernie supporters, burn them votes in the furnace for the "message." Hillary is gonna pivot to the center the second the primary season is over anyway, so for naught. She's not choosing him for VP, being strategically worthless to her.
So we're having this conversation wherein nothing meaningful happens, but at this point it is sheer delusion to believe Bernie has a real shot.
moffattron9000
Member
The problem is that the path is still largely reliant on Cruz and Rubio staying in the race for far too long. If one of them were to drop out fairly soon, then Drumpf's "clear path" gets much more foggy.
Then again, I don't expect either of them to drop out, so I guess that they're feeding themselves to the wolves in November.
superdeluxe
Member
When he beats expectations it's like 1 or 2 delegates, Hillary is beating them across the board, getting 10+ delegates more than expected in some states.
I think 144 loss is best case scenario for Bernie.
Everywhere that Bernie missed his target it was 10-20 delegates.
He missed his target in Texas of all places by a third!
Which is interesting because Texas has a smaller AA population than those in the deep south, which means Hillary got her support from other areas (Hispanics she was 2 to 1) which will play well in states with high Hispanic populations.
I am against Citizen's United, but what does that have to do with anything? So is Hillary.
I'll continue to wait for Hillary backed legislation that demonstrates that Hillary is in the pocket of big banks.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Yup. The fact the he hasnt really cut into her lead in the south or with African Americans at all means that his current strategy is not going to be enough.
An FBI indictment of Hillary or State Dep aides is something that exists in the realm of possibilities.
brainchild
Banned
Let them dream.
If this were simply a discussion like the one we're having, I'd agree that they should just accept reality.
But no team that's trying to win ever accepts such realities, as it never leads to victory. Morale (delusional or not) is important, and if you're gonna fight, I say tell yourself whatever you need to in order to win.
Hillary ripping her face off after the primary, suddenly revealing Sanders underneath!
"IT'S ME D.C!"
Already Torn
Banned
What do you mean by burning votes? The votes have literally no other use, it's not like by voting for Bernie in the primary you're losing voting points you have to save for the general election. It's people participating in democracy, not a waste of time.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
This election cycle will be a goldmine for those who want to study paternalistic racism lol
I think his point is that it is FAR closer to zero than even remotely feasible, and it is fair delusional to think otherwise. According to 538, Hillary has like a 98/99% chance of winning everything up to March 15th, where Bernie needs not only wins but BIG wins to even remain viable. He needs to win by like 7 or 8 points in every race her on out just to tie Hillary in delegates (not counting supers). Hillary is -3300 currently on Bet365. Even Trump who most will concede is going to win at this point is -700.
So yes, it isn't impossible but it basically is. I don't mind the blind optimism, but the vitriolic, desperate hate being tossed at Hillary from Bernie supporters feels so dumb. Like someone drowning kicking up one last time to breath.
As has been said repeatedly, the GOP has to NOMINATE him. He does not feel the GOP will nominate him because they can't put him on a leash.
The Lamonster
Member
boiled goose
good with gravy
Anything that gets posted will be rationalized and ignored so i will try a different approach.
Wall street and lobbyists for other industries are smart people. When they donate, they are making an investment.
Why would they give all this money to Clinton if they dont see it as an investment?
Is your argument that Clinton is taking all this money but then turns around and tricks them by not doing anything in return? WHY DO THEY KEEP DONATING THEN?
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
There's that under 30 action!
vainglorious
Member
lol Maura Healey is not going to prosecute Bill Clinton.
That armchair activism feels so good.
silvermember
Banned
Thank you.
If post online or even excitement was the equivalent of a vote, Sanders would be emperor of the world. Unfortunately, people voting is what helps win elections not excitement.
Yep. Bernie's viability currently depends on the fact that a lot of people do not understand the powers a president has. It is like they forget the checks and balances of the government exist.
Sanders cannot do any of the things he claims he can do without congress. Democrats will control the senate, but the house will remind red until 2020 at the very least.
They are probably doing it to protect their interest just like everyone else it. I would go and say they donate to her because at the very minimum she understands the wall street, while sanders seem to not have a clue. It is better to donate to the devil you know than the other guy.
Lol damn, what polls are they looking at?!
Veritigo_X
Member
Yeah, I don't really care about how people vote during the primary. I think the bigger problem is the donations he will continue to get and waste on states he has no chances to win. I wish Bernie would use these donations to help down ticket races. They would be much better used that way.
Why does anyone donate to a candidate? Not everyone is expecting to get something in return besides helping a candidate they like over others.
This statement is pure speculation. Where's her supposedly long list of pro-bank legislation that Goldman Sachs and the others have 'paid' for?
So many of Bernie supporters' attacks on Hillary are based on speculation and projection (ignoring the outright slurs, character attacks and 'guilt by association' attacks that assume that Hillary=Bill), that I have a hard time siding with them on the few places where their opinions are a little closer to reality.
Well, they want to end the primary and focus on the GE. I think many Bernie Sanders supporters just want to continue the conversation at this point, although some actually think he can win.
Hey, if nothing else, Bernie will be there to accept the nomination when Hilldawg is indicted for her email server
I don't disagree that it can be a potentially problematic thing.
What I'm waiting for is evidence that Hillary doing what every other politician has done (including Obama) means she's indisputably in the pocket of big banks. OR that the quiet senator from Vermont who most people hasn't heard of until last year would be more like to be an effective president simply because he hasn't.
The Lamonster
Member
He's quoting this HuffPost article:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brian-hanley/sanders-wins-vermont-okla_b_9363274.html
Frankly, I don't see any candidates improving America like how I'd like.
We won't be able to outlaw guns, stop police from murdering innocents, and won't "legalize" weed in conservative states. I doubt we will spend $50 - $100 billion on mental health either.
Wishful thinking though.
We won't be able to outlaw guns, stop police from murdering innocents, and won't "legalize" weed in conservative states. I doubt we will spend $50 - $100 billion on mental health either.
Wishful thinking though.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Hillary's against it...
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