Macho Madness
Member
Another problem for Bernie though is that he not only needed to win Michigan tonight, but win 67 delegates. That's probably not going to happen. The next state's margins that he needs to win just inched up a little higher.
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
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Another problem for Bernie though is that he not only needed to win Michigan tonight, but win 67 delegates. That's probably not going to happen. The next state's margins that he needs to win just inched up a little higher.
Yeah, or unless some scandal blows up between now and the convention, but I don't see that happening. That being said, I am not a fan of the Super Delegate system at all. Seems unfair to me.
boiled goose
good with gravy
No way they go against the primaries. Just enough would switch to keep it democratic.
Sanders is still a longshot of course.
NullPointer
Member
At which point can we stop consider election 2016 polls sacrosanct?
Let the voters vote, and then look at the data provided. This whole race there has been this tremendous rush to predict everything and declare those predictions to be adamant, even a year out from here.
Thank the Gods for reality. It can be humbling, but instructive all the same.
Let the voters vote, and then look at the data provided. This whole race there has been this tremendous rush to predict everything and declare those predictions to be adamant, even a year out from here.
Thank the Gods for reality. It can be humbling, but instructive all the same.
I think Ohio is way more likely than Illinois for Bernie. But 5 hours ago I would have bet money on Hillary destroying Michigan, so who the hell knows.
Macho Madness
Member
...
Big Baybee
Member
This is my main reason for not voting for Bernie. GE has me shook. Sure, he'd win the auto dem states, but what about Florida, Ohio, North Carolina or hell even Pennsylvania? Repubs will beat him down and I don't think he or his supporters will be ready for that. Way too risky for me.
maabus1999
Member
She'll get new york. And I wouldn't assume that one states polls being off mean all are. She will get Illinois most likely and Ohio though be close.
Yeah, exactly. Changing the future for the better sounds great. But the reality means working with others, even sometimes corrupt-ish politicans (well, at least heavily invested by lobbyists).
That being said I'm not sure hilary has that great of a track record for legislation. But at least she is trying to work within the system and upfrony about it.
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
Only if you get over 50%.
edit: actually, it appears to be a very weird one: http://frontloading.blogspot.ca/201...elegate-allocation_25.html?platform=hootsuite
I don't really have a problem with Bernie staying in and preaching his message outward going forward. I'll maintain that I'll only be upset if he tries to tear Hillary down and make this an unnecessarily divisive contest.
And GOP turnout doesn't mean much as it pertains to the general. That's a different ball game.
And GOP turnout doesn't mean much as it pertains to the general. That's a different ball game.
Lord_Byron28
Member
Lol Trump is even easier to whack down and blast. The Media and Republicans hate Trump more than Sanders.
Already Torn
Banned
I mean Trump is getting smoked in a few places by a booger eater, so who knows?
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
No one has really gone after his tax plans yet. It'd get ugly for Bernie in the General
ugaboga232
Member
His tax plan is infinitely better than the republican ones.
Macho Madness
Member
Which one of theirs is going to raise my taxes?
Huh? He's already constantly been having to explain that the tax hikes are offset by health savings...
TurboButts
Member
Thanks for the responses everyone.
So Clinton has a lead of 200 right now and that's pretty huge. How many delegates are there left?
For those worried about a split in the Hilary and Bernie support camps come the general, keep in mind that the GOP isn't immune to this. If Trump has more delegates going to the convention (without hitting the magic number) and someone else walks away with the nomination the party will turn upside down the voters will go nuts.
There are quite a few wild cards on both sides of this election. Nothing is certain at this point except that SNL will have funny skits in September and October.
There are quite a few wild cards on both sides of this election. Nothing is certain at this point except that SNL will have funny skits in September and October.
ugaboga232
Member
If you tank the deficit to the extreme, you start to outcrowd important funding. Now if you are talking optics thats another story but trump has a huge amount of problems too.
maabus1999
Member
Yeah I think socialist label would indeed hurt in swing states during the general. Might depend a little on youth turnout but I see them more likely to discuss via social media than to actually vote.
This post is literally gibberish. I'm disappointed. And the graphs you link are utterly irrelevant to the topic we're discussing.
Here are some relevant graphs!
I'm not making a claim about the universe, I'm sharing my experience and also helping to explain the data. Lots of Sanders supporters keep asking why, despite all the stuff Sanders does to demonstrate how he understands minorities so well, minorities don't support him. In the South they even considered him less liberal and less trustworthy, facts that caused no end of bafflement in that thread.
Well, I can tell you exactly why, and I just did. I don't think it will matter, since I have done it like two dozen times already this year, but hey, what's one more?
So demonstrate it.
Yeah, I know that you think you know me based on one line of one post I wrote, but trust me, you don't know anything about me. You don't even know the stuff about me that I post on this message board!
I understand that you're very confident in calling yourself more progressive than I am because I'm more realistic than you are. You seem to think that's somehow a virtue. Let me assure you, it isn't.
Tranqueris
Banned
Not updated yet, but should be basically the same.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Big Baybee
Member
I know two votes are already counted towards him.
Macho Madness
Member
Not including MS and MI, 2896 still up for grabs.
But keep in mind, it's all proportional and states like Ohio, Illinois, Florida, New York, and California reward a lot more than most of the smaller states do combined.
NO...if he overtakes her, they will be forced to side with him, or the DNC risks a YUUUGE backlash in the General Election.
Mine's in the mail. Gonna rally up my social circle a bit, too.I know two votes are already counted towards him.
eyeball_kid
Member
No. You're taking it out of context. No, I don't think anyone is spinning anything; in fact, that was my whole point, as the OP suggested the "liberal media" was keeping the Bernie hype alive. I haven't seen any perceived left-leaning media outlets championing Bernie.
Fair. Won't happen tho, so doesn't matter.
You can't assume anything at this point, that is the lesson from tonight, especially outsidea the south. The longer he stays the more votes he's going to get, unless something drastic happens. A lot of states still have to vote.
eBay Huckster
Member
Looking like little Rubio fucked up Cruz's ability to get to 50% in ID (and all of the delegates).
Sad!
Sad!
LOL sure.
Michigan wasn't supposed to happen either.
Oh please paint out how Bernie ends up with more delegates?
It shows, this huge upset in Michigan, changes pretty much nothing.
If Hilary doesn't win New York easily, I will consider that a huge upset. She was a senator from that state and that is Wall Street's territory. Not a chance Bernie pulls it off.
Already Torn
Banned
Lots more upsets
hamauzu kaito
Member
Lol it backfired. They thought they would take it away from trump...Rubio is done in politics, so much wasted money and energy.
Chezzymann
Member
Sounds like another establishment candidate that got a bunch of money pumped into them...
#FeelinTheBern
Square2015
Member
When did Dems start this super delegate system?
Like tonights? It'll do nothing. He needs 30 point wins, and not just a few either.
Wall Street's territory?
New York is going to go Clinton but not because of Wall Street. The percent of the population here that works on Wall Street is probably statistically insignificant.
Hell they couldn't even stop De Blasio from being elected.
eBay Huckster
Member
Put into place in 1982, in effect for the first time in 1984.
Already Torn
Banned
"You have to attack Donald back. Talk about his hands!"
Sorry, I meant lots of YUGE upsets
Macho Madness
Member
Not the least surprised Cruz took Idaho, and especially Bonneville county.
More people are voting in Fremont county than I would have expected.
More people are voting in Fremont county than I would have expected.
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