Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

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InsaneZero said:
I'm not sure if that juxtaposition between your text and your image is meant to be ironic.

More importantly, I'm not sure if getting the guy you like into the executive branch is enough to be considered a great accomplishment. At the end of the day, he's still only one guy in one branch of government that has one primary responsibility who can't even make any laws that change things.
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It's meant to remind people that their votes do matter and that individuals have the power to influence the whole.

What are you even saying? You don't think the President of the United States has any power to shape the direction of the country through vetos, or nominations of supreme court justices, or commanding our military?

Your perspective is confusing.

Edit: Also, the fact that you think I'm simply trying to get my desired candidate elected is very telling as to your view of people's motivations. I don't consider this a game where my guy wins and others lose. Bernie Sanders is the person with the best moral compass I have ever seen run for President. His ideas and his message are exactly what the United States needs. My values align tremendously with his purpose.
 
RedSparc said:
You can't assume anything at this point, that is the lesson from tonight, especially outsidea the south. The longer he stays the more votes he's going to get, unless something drastic happens. A lot of states still have to vote.
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one exception does not make a trend. And she still got more delegates... she will continue to get more. Getting old explaining how this works. Delegate wise Bernie fell behind his target tonight still. Remember Mass is one of the largest liberal white states by population and he lost there. Can't assume anything for either candidate other than the required delegates to win. Which currently is Bernie winning over 60 % of the remaining vote if not higher.
 
Heading to bed now.

Congratulations to the Bernie Sanders group for Michigan. It was a big win, and will certainly bring him some momentum. I apologize to all of you if I said anything condescending or out of line tonight. Emotions run high and I guess I get more caught up in it than I like to admit to myself. I really am sorry.

Good night folks.
 
so what do republicans do now? kasich and rubio are holding off until next tuesday, obviously, but after they lose more states (and their own), and presumably drop out, do they tell their delegates to support cruz? is it better for them to support someone they hate versus someone they're scared of?
 
The biggest problem that I have with Bernie is that his entire political campaign is based upon the concept of a political revolution, but he hasn't actually done anything that tangibly affects the current fundamentals of the political system. How many people started to actually pay attention to what goes in national and regional government beyond a simple superficial level? How many people can actually started to remember the name of their representative, and how many of those people actually bothered to interact with them? Has he helped out any of the potential Senators that he'll need in Congress to even make a small portion of his promises a reality?

Even if Bernie can make people start to care about politics again, I don't see anything that demonstrates that he's doing so beyond the level of "we only care about the executive branch".

theshizzle said:
It's meant to remind people that their votes do matter and that individuals have the power to influence the whole.

What are you even saying? You don't think the President of the United States has any power to shape the direction of the country through vetos, or nominations of supreme court justices, or commanding our military?

Your perspective is confusing.
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As demonstrated by our current President, there's a limit of how much you can shape the direction of the country if you:

- have a Congress that likes to send you bills that go absolutely nowhere (I'm pretty sure there's something more meaningful than vetoing a repeal of Obamacare for the hundredth time)
- can't get a court nominee through the confirmation process
- constitutionally don't have the power to actually declare war or control the actual military budget (or any kind of budget for that matter)
 
Pepboy said:
Yeah the prediction was he was going to lose by a lot tonight. The "upset" was he still lost in total delegates, but not as much as predicted.
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I mean, Hillary beat her delegate expectations, Bernie missed his. This is with an upset. This is one upset, doesn't suddenly mean Bernie is going to start winning all these places Hillary is polling well in.
 
ciaossu said:
He won't even be able to do single payer and he knows it. Bothers me about him, should advertise a plan he knows he can do, and that way you advertise lower tax increases and people are more likely to vote too
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I feel like he positions it more like a vision to move toward, rather than a plan he or anyone expects to materialize in 4 years. When asked how he accomplishes it, he talks about having to get the country behind it first.
 
AniHawk said:
so what do republicans do now? kasich and rubio are holding off until next tuesday, obviously, but after they lose more states (and their own), and presumably drop out, do they tell their delegates to support cruz? is it better for them to support someone they hate versus someone they're scared of?
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Look at Jeb dropping out, he was primed for endorsing Rubio but he didn't.

If Rubio drops out, he's a poisoned well and his endorsement to Cruz would be bad for him if only because Trump can use that as ammunition. However if he were to endorse Trump, then that wouldn't be a bad thing for Trump necessarily.

Kasich on the other hand, I don't think he would want to endorse any of the remaining loonies, but he's not a poisoned well like Rubio, so if he did it might tilt the tide.

Flying Toaster said:
That won't happen Cruz eats his snot!
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Oh I forgot, I'm sure Trump could buy him a whole truckload of snot to go through.
 
Okay! Now that I've calmed down...

Rubio needs to get out. Now. Next week is too late. Cruz actually has a shot next week if you throw all the Rubio support up for grabs. It wouldn't be a sure bet, but it's at least a chance. Better than Trump just running away with it. Clearing the WTAs on the 15th would set in inevitability for him pretty much instantly. Rubio is screwed regardless and the party needs to hound him, immediately.
 
Looks like MI-D was as far off as it was because the polls weren't factoring in independents for shit - the Dem-only screen on the exits had it 57-41 Clinton.
 
Tonight has confirmed a few things on the Republican side. Trump is not in a freefall. Voters are sick of Rubio and/or starting to vote strategically. Republican voters as a whole do not like Donald Trump, and Trump supporters, as a whole, do not like the other Repulican candidates (check out exit polls for this). Trump does much better in primaries than in caucuses (which we already knew), and Trump's polling for open primaries seems to be much more accurate than for closed primaries or for caucuses -- he performed exactly as the polls predicted in both Mississippi and Michigan whereas in Louisiana's closed primary he lost a lot of ground to Cruz.

Unless something big happens between now and March 15th, Rubio will lose Florida to Trump. Ohio is a different story altogether. But tonight was good for Trump no matter how Hawaii goes.
 
Miles X said:
I mean, Hillary beat her delegate expectations, Bernie missed his. This is with an upset. This is one upset, doesn't suddenly mean Bernie is going to start winning all these places Hillary is polling well in.
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Hillary was also polling well in Michigan. You all are trying to vote him out when in reality, he's coming back. Do we not mention Clinton's national lead that got shrunk down to only 9 months over the past couple months? Don't be so naive and act like Michigan is his only upset.
 
theshizzle said:
What are you even saying? You don't think the President of the United States has any power to shape the direction of the country through vetos, or nominations of supreme court justices, or commanding our military?

Your perspective is confusing.
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President has some power, but cannot do change things singlehandedly (thank goodness). Well, I suppose they can now more than they used to (with executive orders and other debatably unconstitutional powers), but it only really matters if there is strong democratic turnout in other districts. Demographics are in democrats favor long term, but I think these demographics tend to live in cities. Could be wrong, we'll see soon enough.
 
royalan said:
It's not so much the label, it's what the label means.

Later in the year, should Bernie be the nominee, the Republicans are going to hammer home the fact that Bernie is running on a platform of raising your taxes and less choice. nd if anybody doesn't think that'll be effective, we got a taste of it last week with the discussion surrounding his tax plans.
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So, just like every year.
 
aspiegamer said:
Okay! Now that I've calmed down...

Rubio needs to get out. Now. Next week is too late. Cruz actually has a shot next week if you throw all the Rubio support up for grabs. It wouldn't be a sure bet, but it's at least a chance. Better than Trump just running away with it. Clearing the WTAs on the 15th would set in inevitability for him pretty much instantly. Rubio is screwed regardless and the party needs to hound him, immediately.
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I thought if they both stay in, trump fails to get a majority, letting the RNC choose another candidate (in theory)?
 
Daria said:
Hillary was also polling well in Michigan. You all are trying to vote him out when in reality, he's coming back. Do we not mention Clinton's national lead that got shrunk down to only 9 months over the past couple months? Don't be so naive and act like Michigan is his only upset.
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None of this was supposed to happen. He was never supposed to get as far as he has.

And its been a pain in the ass to read and listen to it for so long now. The world would be a better place if polling and predictions weren't things that news sites pushed so constantly.

Win or lose, he's doing what he can with what he's got. And we're all finding out what that's worth to the voters.
 
Daria said:
Hillary was also polling well in Michigan. You all are trying to vote him out when in reality, he's coming back. Do we not mention Clinton's national lead that got shrunk down to only 9 months over the past couple months? Don't be so naive and act like Michigan is his only upset.
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Polls polls polls. Show me the results, show me him taking a load of delegates from Hillary. It isn't happening, he's getting within a few points and taking a few delegates from her. Whilst she is running up 50 point leads in the south.

Other than his home state and the borders, he is 50/50 with her.

What states do you predict him having blowout wins in? I really want to know.
 
AniHawk said:
so what do republicans do now? kasich and rubio are holding off until next tuesday, obviously, but after they lose more states (and their own), and presumably drop out, do they tell their delegates to support cruz? is it better for them to support someone they hate versus someone they're scared of?
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Most delegates (95%+) aren't free to swing from candidate to candidate until after the first vote at the republican convention -- they are bound to whoever they are initially awarded to. I'm pretty sure the RNC can rewrite the rules, but those are the rules as they stand.
 
JP_ said:
Think he was mocking the people in this thread arguing Sanders has no chance in GE because of the label's supposed toxicity for independents.
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I'm honestly not even gonna begin to give a shit about "chances in the GE" until June, personally, and I've made this clear throughout this thread.
 
Square2015 said:
When did Dems start this super delegate system?
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After this happened:

oOmRenz.png
 
pigeon said:
So demonstrate it.
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Do you support the immediate overthrow of the capitalist order and the creation of an international workers state ruled by a dictatorship of the proletariat?

Obviously, you don't because you're responding to my post rather than getting it done.

Checkmate.

I bet you don't even watch Maoist Rebel News regularly.
 
Pepboy said:
I thought if they both stay in, trump fails to get a majority, letting the RNC choose another candidate (in theory)?
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They need to stay and win. If Rubio is just preventing Cruz and Kasich from winning Florida and Ohio, then that actually helps Trump.
 
JP_ said:
I feel like he positions it more like a vision to move toward, rather than a plan he or anyone expects to materialize in 4 years. When asked how he accomplishes it, he talks about having to get the country behind it first.
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Some voters are more pragmatic and want to see actual plans that can be accomplished though. I may have voted for Bernie, but I think it's a serious problem for some of his platforms.

It ends up being rhetoric if it's not realistic to implement. And Bernie is supposed to be trustworthy and not about political rhetoric. Just something that bothers me about him
 
Retro4ever said:
If Hilary doesn't win New York easily, I will consider that a huge upset. She was a senator from that state and that is Wall Street's territory. Not a chance Bernie pulls it off.
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Really? Bernie is a grumpy Jew from New York. Bernie is the most New York person I've ever seen on a presidential stage.
 
OpinionatedCyborg said:
Most delegates (95%+) aren't free to swing from candidate to candidate until after the first vote at the republican convention -- they are bound to whoever they are initially awarded to. I'm pretty sure the RNC can rewrite the rules, but those are the rules as they stand.
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Those same delegates have to vote to change the rules...

BlastProcessing said:
After this happened:

oOmRenz.png
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That's John Anderson's fault.

Also Carter's for refusing to debate.
 
Pepboy said:
I thought if they both stay in, trump fails to get a majority, letting the RNC choose another candidate (in theory)?
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The big question is whether Rubio helps by winning delegates Trump would otherwise have won or hurts by taking votes from someone else who then loses delegates to Trump. Rubio's recent weakness makes people think he's unlikely to win Florida, which Trump really needs to win. And if Trump wins it things look really good for him. So someone else needs to win Florida and needs Rubio's voters to do it.
 
benjipwns said:
Those same delegates have to vote to change the rules...


That's John Anderson's fault.

Also Carter's for refusing to debate.
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Yes, I believe they require 3/4 to be in favor for each rule change as well... and they don't meet to vote for quite some time (can they assemble earlier?). I don't think we have to worry about this rule changing for the time being. Rule changes to deny Trump may only occur once it's a sure thing he'll get a majority.
Gotchaye said:
The big question is whether Rubio helps by winning delegates Trump would otherwise have won or hurts by taking votes from someone else who then loses delegates to Trump. Rubio's recent weakness makes people think he's unlikely to win Florida, which Trump really needs to win. And if Trump wins it things look really good for him. So someone else needs to win Florida and needs Rubio's voters to do it.
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Trump needs either Florida or Ohio to have a reasonable shot at 1237. If he gets both, he's almost assured a majority. So it's more than appearances and momentum we're talking about: Trump needs the numbers as well. He's won about 43% of teh delegates so far (not counting tonight), so the second half of the campaign he is required to pick up something like 56% of remaining delegates.

Cruz and Kasich do not poll well in Florida. I'm not sure if Rubio dropping out would lead to Cruz winning. Rubio is still probably the best bet at stopping Trump there, although it's look less likely based on the number of polls that have Trump up double digits and Rubio's recent performance. Ohio will likely be Kasich's. Kasich is close in the polls and has the home state organizational advantaged. I think it's a closed primary as well, not an open one.
 
Pepboy said:
I thought if they both stay in, trump fails to get a majority, letting the RNC choose another candidate (in theory)?
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Betting on the hopes of a brokered convention to work out isn't particularly safe. If that's the RNC's best strategy? Oh man they're screwed. With most of the states WTA now, Rubio's share doesn't matter. It might as well be 0. So why not toss up what he has left and hope more lands at Cruz than Trump? Rubio's national polls now would put him outside the minimums even in the proportional territories left, so, again, his share is effectively 0.

If Cruz caught fire next week it's at least mathematically possible for him to grab up all the WTAs and win the nomination outright in a 1v1 with Trump. But it absolutely has to start next week or there aren't enough delegates left.
 
Square2015 said:
Alright thanks guys. So it was in reaction to losing so badly to Reagan?
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It was in reaction to Ted Kennedy trying to get the regular delegates unbound and vote for him at the convention.

maabus1999 said:
Which is the last time a Democrat ran on raising taxes... The super delegates are not switching easily.
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Well, except for Mondale four years later of course.

Coincidentally, the candidate the superdelegates backed over Hart.
 
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