OpinionatedCyborg
Member
Cruz is up in Louisiana now too (Trump still ahead, of course). Looks like Rubio is fading and Cruz is benefiting. Trump might've taken a hit from that debate after all as well.
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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Square2015
Member
Final: Bernie wins by 25% in Kansas.
Edit: 36%
Edit: 36%
DR2K
Banned
The factual answer to that youth vote would be whomever the democratic nominee is.
We are talking about youth who would vote for Bernie but not Hillary, I doubt there are very many, and frankly those people are not worth worrying about or pandering to
Ballots made before candidate dropped out I think.
Might also be write ins, Deez Nuts, Vermin Supreme, Wade Wilson etc
Tesseract
Banned
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Final Kansas results are 68 to 32 for sanders.
Wafflecakes
Member
I see you switching the discussion from " increase turnout" to "securing" the youth vote.
That is a non discussion since the youth vote WILL be for the dems. Sanders has shown no ability to significantly increase youth turnout, and the youth have shown no trend towards voting Republican.
So what exactly is the appeal you are making.
Prodigal Son
Member
Why of course.
Inevitably, the democratic candidate will have more youth support than the eventual Republican candidate. I think we all agree with that.
This discussion has been about how much of the youth for either potential democratic candidate is likely to secure and whether or not that difference is significant enough to affect the eventual outcome.
^
perfectchaos007
Member
Trump currently up by 11 points in Louisiana. What was he projected to win by?
Good Job Bob
Member
eBay Huckster
Member
It was originally showing 57-32 w/ O'Malley at 10% for some reason (and in fact, TGP still has the erroneous numbers)
User 463088
Banned
Flattered, thanks.
Final is 67.7/32.3 so a good win. 22 delegates to Hillary's 11.
Kansas:
Bernie: 22
Hillary: 11
Nebraska:
Bernie: 15
Hilary: 10
Louisiana: (assuming current margins)
Hillary: 40
Bernie: 11
Hillary: 61
Bernie: 48
Hillary increased her delegate lead by 13.
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
Just updated:
Trump typically had a 20+ point lead. Rubio and Cruz were both ~20.Nate Silver said:
Ziltoidia 9
Member
This is the problem with holding back results and just unloading them all at once. Weird numbers everywhere.
Nevermind they seem to screw to numbers momentarily, OMalley have 0 % now.
Trump was up by 15.6 in the RCP average going in.
Christ...
Good Job Bob
Member
Another good night for Hillary.Flattered, thanks.
Final is 67.7/32.3 so a good win. 22 delegates to Hillary's 11.
Kansas:
Bernie: 22
Hillary: 11
Nebraska:
Bernie: 15
Hilary: 10
Louisiana: (assuming current margins)
Hillary: 40
Bernie: 11
Hillary: 61
Bernie: 48
Hillary increased her delegate lead by 13.
What do we expect in Maine tomorrow?
Flattered, thanks.
Final is 67.7/32.3 so a good win. 22 delegates to Hillary's 11.
Kansas:
Bernie: 22
Hillary: 11
Nebraska:
Bernie: 15
Hilary: 10
Louisiana: (assuming current margins)
Hillary: 40
Bernie: 11
Hillary: 61
Bernie: 48
Hillary increased her delegate lead by 13.
The black vote in Louisiana made a huge difference.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
There is still 21% of Nebraska that hasn't been put out yet, from Lancaster county, which is the college town, so the 10% margin will probably go up a little more.
eBay Huckster
Member
that and NE-2 coming in much closer than anyone expected
Sanders yet again falls behind his 538 target, this time by 8%, if current margins hold.
They're not coming out at all isn't what people are saying, though. You said people won't come out in storms for Hillary, setting a high bar that isn't being met by their support of Bernie either, and so people responded. Yes, that broad hyperbole won't be met. And the much smaller reality being set in support of Bernie won't be met either.
But as we can agree that a greater percentage of the young people that bother to vote at all will vote for the democratic candidate -- and because the youth vote is generally a small percentage of the overall vote -- I'm not sure I see what makes you think the difference would be significant. The youth numbers for Sanders just aren't there. Losing a small percentage of what is already a small percentage will hardly prove disastrous in the general, especially when more people tend to turn out for the actual election than for primaries anyway.
eBay Huckster
Member
that's only gonna swing the delegate margin by 4 at most - might pad NE-1 to 4-2 and at-large to 4-1
HUGE win over Clinton, it'll only go up from here
If you didn't notice above, she actually *increased* her delegate lead today. Those were pretty good wins for Bernie, but they just aren't enough to help him.
perfectchaos007
Member
Did Cruz already give his press conference after winning Maine and Kansas?
Yep. I think its a forgone conclusion that any state with a large minority population is going to swing Clinton in a big way.
She increased her delegate lead, but the momentum for Bernie is still strong.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
He was found drowning in a pool of his victory snot under his bridge
reports are that he's currently trying to eat it all
Flattered, thanks.
Final is 67.7/32.3 so a good win. 22 delegates to Hillary's 11.
Kansas:
Bernie: 22
Hillary: 11
Nebraska:
Bernie: 15
Hilary: 10
Louisiana: (assuming current margins)
Hillary: 40
Bernie: 11
Hillary: 61
Bernie: 48
Hillary increased her delegate lead by 13.
Wow, looks like it's a GREAT delegate night for Hillary.
I expected Sanders to keep it closer tonight.
You are a very tiny minority, and must always be disappointed
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
Yeah, I posted a summary of what he said earlier.
eBay Huckster
Member
yeah, strongly against him in the state that's going to dwarf all 3 states that voted today combined
Tesseract
Banned
I'm pretty happy with what Bernie is accomplishing, he can run until every state votes. But he needs to hit her harder now, supporters too.
Yep Lancaster is like the second biggest county, so it would actually effect the final result a fair bit. We shall see.
Already Torn
Banned
But momentum doesn't win elections 😞
User 463088
Banned
Because of how delegates are awarded, the NYT projection is 14/10 right now. There's one more delegate left, and I went ahead and gave that to Bernie. Because a of precincts may be worth 2 delegates, a 80/20 win nets a tie in the number of delegates awarded. The final should be 15/10.
HUGE win over Clinton, it'll only go up from here
This was actually always going to be Hillary's worst night. Tuesday is Mississippi and Michigan, and then the 15th.
On his best night of the campaign Hillary increased her lead.
His supporters would have to physically assault Hillary for them to hit her any harder.
Tesseract
Banned
Eh that don't matter, the message is far more important.
Flattered, thanks.
Final is 67.7/32.3 so a good win. 22 delegates to Hillary's 11.
Kansas:
Bernie: 22
Hillary: 11
Nebraska:
Bernie: 15
Hilary: 10
Louisiana: (assuming current margins)
Hillary: 40
Bernie: 11
Hillary: 61
Bernie: 48
Hillary increased her delegate lead by 13.
Curious if places like CNN and MSNBC are actually pointing out the final result.
Like I said, it's all uphill from here, and Bernie stays strong!
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Im not watching, but I'm sure they are just talking Trump.
Well, he does have some good states coming up for a few weeks after March 15, but he's not likely to win any of them by huge double digit margins and the delegates at stake are all generally small. But yes, getting a surplus of delegates on a day where Bernie was expected to do really well percentage-wise doesn't really count as 'momentum'.
Those Southern states are killing him - you can't lose by 40+ points in multiple states and keep things competitive.
Yep, he absolutely needed to be in the running, and I hope he stays in as long as he wants to (assuming he doesn't start throwing right-wing mud at her, of course). Hillary's already pretty progressive already (regardless of what some of Bernie's supporters think), but it's good to have a voice coming from the left of her. If he ends up shifting the Overton window even just a bit, then everybody wins.
Already Torn
Banned
I agree. There's still the chances that Hillary abandons all of the stuff BernieMs been pulling her towards as soon as it's GE time though. It could all just be an act for now
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