Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

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Given this potential major upset, is that really guaranteed? What if he has a mass of this kind of similar up swing elsewhere?

Well, you have to look at the delegate totals, not just wins.

Because even if Sanders win, it will be a wash. Meanwhile, she continues to clean up in the southern states and he needs to start gaining significant ground, not moral victories.
 
None of the states on the dnc side are winner take all. But we have a LOT of states to do, and the BIGGEST states with the most delegates to go. The biggest we've had so far is Texas. Clinton isn't that far ahead, at all, in pledged delegates. It's certainly not outside of reach. She's in the lead currently, yes, but her best states are soon to be behind her.


Well that's certainly optimistic.
 
None of the states on the dmc side are winner take all. But we have a LOT of states to do, and the BIGGEST states with the most delegates to go. The biggest we've had so far is Texas. Clinton isn't that far ahead, at all, in pledged delegates. It's certainly not outside of reach. She's in the lead currently, yes, but her best states are soon to be behind her.

The fact that there's no winner take all states on the Democratic side is what makes Hilary's lead so commanding, and it's going to grow on March 15th.
 
Given this potential major upset, is that really guaranteed? What if he has a mass of this kind of similar up swing elsewhere?

Even if every state up for grabs next week swung 20% toward Bernie, he'd still walk away with fewer delegates than Hillary. That's why his wins need to be big - proportional allocation favors the person with the bigger initial lead, and there are no winner takes all states on the Democratic side.
 
gonna be a long night for michigan, gonna get another drink and get ready for the salt that will roll out over the next hour
 
I like how Hillary fans talk about the attacks from "Bernie bros", but then any time Bernie wins they make patronizing, belittling comments about Bernie supporters.
well maybe they should do some research into the topic before discussing it. Anyone knowledgeable of the race knows it ended on Super Tuesday. I feel 100% confident in that, save this post if you feel otherwise. Bernie can't win every rave April and Beyond by double digits and if he can't do that there's no way he can catch up I either the popular vote or the delegate math.
 
WTF.

Got DC'd mid match in the third round of an even fight. Hope that Vega player doesn't think I quit or something. That round was far from over.
 
I hope they look into why the polls were so off.

Something was clearly off about the way they were taking them for this state.

Somewhere earlier in the thread, some one posted that 7% Democratic voters choose to vote Republican to muck up their race, while 3% Repubs came over to the Dems side to mess with theirs. That could explain the poll numbers being off.
 
Even if every state up for grabs next week swung 20% toward Bernie, he'd still walk away with fewer delegates than Hillary. That's why his wins need to be big - proportional allocation favors the person with the bigger initial lead, and there are no winner takes all states on the Democratic side.

So hypothetically speaking, what sort of an upswing does he need to garner comparative to current predictions, to actually have a shot at this?
 
well maybe they should do some research into the topic before discussing it. Anyone knowledgeable of the race knows it ended on Super Tuesday. I feel 100% confident in that, save this post if you feel otherwise. Bernie can't win every rave April and Beyond by double digits and if he can't do that there's no way he can catch up I either the popular vote or the delegate math.

Stop persecuting Benrie fans with knowledge.
 
Somewhere earlier in the thread, some one posted that 7% Democratic voters choose to vote Republican to muck up their race, while 3% Repubs came over to the Dems side to mess with theirs. That could explain the poll numbers being off.

Hahaha really? Troll votes are real, bro.
 
This thread is moving too fast...so I can't go back...But did one of you guys really say Bernie could win every state to follow by double digit leads and not catch up to Hillary in delegates? Ummm... What?

If you're taking superdelegates into consideration on that, you really need to learn how they've historically functioned.

Wow @ that drop. 5% to 1%!

If he wins every remaining state by 10 points he still loses
 
Well, you have to look at the delegate totals, not just wins.

Because even if Sanders win, it will be a wash. Meanwhile, she continues to clean up in the southern states and he needs to start gaining significant ground, not moral victories.

There's only really North Carolina and Kentucky left to vote of southern states.

Clinton is still a heavy favorite, but the races mostly shift now to other parts of the country. Outside of the south, most races have been pretty close.
 
well maybe they should do some research into the topic before discussing it. Anyone knowledgeable of the race knows it ended on Super Tuesday. I feel 100% confident in that, save this post if you feel otherwise. Bernie can't win every rave April and Beyond by double digits and if he can't do that there's no way he can catch up I either the popular vote or the delegate math.

Actually, going by Bernie's demographics, he has a good shot at winning every rave :V
 
Yeah I don't see how Bernie can win now.

If she's up by 23k in Wayne after 50%, she will surely be up by another roughly 23k (and possibly more so) after 100%.

That means Bernie needs to continue to make up at least 9k in all the other counties but they're nearly all done reporting or very low totals.

Hillary will win :/
 
I'm going to have to stay off the internet for several days if this ends up a Sanders win.

Maaaaaaaybe Clinton people will start taking turnout a bit seriously? And not vote for Republicans for funsies. Since some people bragged about doing this it'll at least be easy to hunt them down for their stupidity. Tonight alone has added a week to the campaign. Ugh.
 
So hypothetically speaking, what sort of an upswing does he need to garner comparative to current predictions, to actually have a shot at this?

After next week, assuming polling holds, he'd have to win every state remaining nearly 60-40 to tie. He'll win a few states left by more than that, but will lose some by at least that much as well.
 
Hillary won more delegates tonight, but Bernie winning Michigan would be a huge upset, even if he only gets a few more delegates than Hilary for the small victory margin.
 
The fact that there's no winner take all states on the Democratic side is what makes Hilary's lead so commanding, and it's going to grow on March 15th.

March 15 has largely been considered the date Bernie Sander's campaign finally picks up momentum. It's when the remainder of her best states (save for maybe NY? anyone aware of other big states for Clinton?) vote. A lot of analysts have suggested Bernie could gain traction after March 15, but that never mattered, because by that time it'd be too late.

If this is the showing for Michigan NOW, prior to when he was still supposed to be absolutely wiped off his ass... It's a tell. So was Kansas to be quite honest (70% was humongous).

Considering Bernie really only started gaining real attention and traction this past December, results have shown that the longer he stays in the race and the more exposure he gets, the more favor he earns.

What's the current pledged delegate count between Clinton and Sanders? I can't find a single site that provides them without the superdelegates and I was just able to find this information last week. GRRRR.
 
well maybe they should do some research into the topic before discussing it. Anyone knowledgeable of the race knows it ended on Super Tuesday. I feel 100% confident in that, save this post if you feel otherwise. Bernie can't win every rave April and Beyond by double digits and if he can't do that there's no way he can catch up I either the popular vote or the delegate math.

My point is, it's a poor attitude to people that you're going to want voting for Hillary come November. Bernie supporters are cheering for Bernie for reasons that are not always about winning the nomination. Condescending comments aren't helpful or unifying.
 
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