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[brainchild]

Is this the biggest polling upset of the election?

I think so, yes.

 

[Brinbe]

Open primary did do it.
From 538

One result that has stayed consistent on the Democratic side is that self-identified independents are far more likely to vote for Sanders.The current exit poll estimate is that he is winning them in Michigan by a 70 percent to 28 percent margin. Clinton, on the other hand, leads among self-identified Democrats by 57 percent to 41 percent. Although party registration doesn’t necessarily match identification, it gives you an idea that Sanders really benefits from open primaries.

 

[Kevyt]

Can I just say that the reason why Bernie is winning Michigan is because of young people? And the open primary aspect of it, still I think the former carries more weight to it.

Young people are finally going out to vote, and they vote Sanders.

This is why the polls are wrong.

Am I wrong in believing that? I also think this paints a rather dire picture for Hilary's campaign truth be told...

 

[Bel Marduk]

Please no. Cruz needs to go away now.

Why would Cruz go away? He's actually doing nearly as well as truxp

 

[Kickz]

86%. Bernie leads by 33k votes.

It's over. I bet Hillary is legit shook.

#FeelingTheBern!!

#BernieMomentum!!

 

[MThanded]

538 will hopefully dissect this in the podcast tomorrow/tonight.

Crazy inaccuracies in polling.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

He also kept calling Rubio Lil Marco, but said they got along.

In the context of getting along up until a couple weeks ago when Rubio went in on the attack. In that context, Trump is right. He really hasn't gone after anyone unless they went after him first.

 

[billeh]

Open primary did do it.
From 538

Illinois will be very interesting to watch for sure, then.

She might be from here, but no one gives a shit.

 

[Valhelm]

Say what you will about his campaign, but the one they're not is "lazy". It's amazing what has been accomplished by such an old, non-christian and far left candidate's campaign staff.

Yeah, I'm still amazed that this is happening. The furthest-lest politician in this country is running for president, and doing well.

 

[Prodigal Son]

Can I just say that the reason why Bernie is winning Michigan is because of young people?

Young people are finally going out to vote, and they vote Sanders.

This is why the polls are wrong.

Am I wrong in believing that? I also think this paints a rather dire picture for Hilary's campaign truth be told...

I don't think you're completely wrong, but there are other factors surely.

 

[Ashodin]

86% in 4% lead for King B

Hooooooooold!!!!!!

WE GOT THIS HILL FAM

 

[maabus1999]

Can I just say that the reason why Bernie is winning Michigan is because of young people?

Young people are finally going out to vote, and they vote Sanders.

This is why the polls are wrong.

Am I wrong in believing that? I also think this paints a rather dire picture for Hilary's campaign truth be told...

Yet turnout is below 2008.

 

[boiled goose]

Statistical inferencing doesn't work like that. The margin of error for these polls wasn't 20-30%. The methodology was flawed, plain and simple.

Yup.

 

[Dennis]

In the context of getting along up until a couple weeks ago when Rubio went in on the attack. In that context, Trump is right. He really hasn't gone after anyone unless they went after one first.

You mess with the bull you get the horns.

 

[MThanded]

Can I just say that the reason why Bernie is winning Michigan is because of young people? And the open primary aspect of it, still I think the former carries more weight to it.

Young people are finally going out to vote, and they vote Sanders.

This is why the polls are wrong.

Am I wrong in believing that? I also think this paints a rather dire picture for Hilary's campaign truth be told...

Pretty sure a lot of it had to do with the Auto bailout stuff.

 

[danm999]

I think so, yes.

This is the biggest primary polling upset in 40 years of them being a thing.

Yes, at least in primary history.

 

[Schattenjäger]

If Trump is so terrible why is he getting so many votes?

Because he isn't as terrible as a liberal message board would have you believe

 

[SolarPowered]

The RCP average was Clinton +21.4.

Biggest poll average change ever.

Bernie is the Anti Mondale/McGovern now. Only he can save us from the increasing entropy that is the Trump campaign.

 

[NeoROCK]

Because the anti-Trump vote is split between 3 other contenders.

That's not what I asked at all.

Trump is getting a ton of votes himself. If he's so terrible, why is he getting so many votes?

 

[PlayALLtheGames]

He also kept calling Rubio Lil Marco, but said they got along.

He does it all the time: insults and compliments someone in back-to-back sentences. He doesn't even realize it.

 

[nillah]

Every Tuesday is super with trump as president. What other country can say THAT.

 

[Baron Aloha]

Open primary did do it.
From 538

I've been saying that for weeks. He dominates among independents. That's why I think he'd be the stronger candidate in November.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Hillary canceled her victory party!!

 

[Pamplemousse]

Can I just say that the reason why Bernie is winning Michigan is because of young people?

Young people are finally going out to vote, and they vote Sanders.

This is why the polls are wrong.

Am I wrong in believing that? I also think this paints a rather dire picture for Hilary's campaign truth be told...

Not every young person in MI voted for Bernie, Seath.
😉

Why would Cruz go away? He's actually doing nearly as well as truxp

I just want him to go away cuz I hate him. Lol

 

[whitehawk]

87%!!!!

 

[eBay Huckster]

Yet turnout is below 2008.

There isn't really a solid 1:1 comparison for this primary, since 2008 featured Clinton vs No One and the last time it was a primary before then was 1992, when the other Clinton already basically had the race sewn up.

But so far, it's well ahead of both.

 

[egruntz]

Open primary did do it.
From 538

The debate, and his 3 recent victories also gave him some momentum here.

One thing I do know is that the campaign and his supporters were really pushing for viability in Mississippi and to narrow the loss in Michigan by as much as possible. I know they've been working hard. (Myself included, been phonebanking and textbanking and facebanking and blah blah blah.)

 

[MThanded]

Statistical inferencing doesn't work like that. The margin of error for these polls wasn't 20-30%. The methodology was flawed, plain and simple.

You must not know much about how 538 works. Nate and the crew do a great job weighting the polls and they take all this into account.

 

[MIMIC]

Because he isn't as terrible as a liberal message board would have you believe

Nobody knows shit as far as I'm concerned. About ANYTHING

 

[maabus1999]

I've been saying that for weeks. He dominates among independents. That's why I think he'd be the stronger candidate in November.

Trump is the same way.

 

[DR2K]

Bernie won Michigan, the right thing for Hillary to do is drop out of the race.

 

[noshten]

So this Democratic primary campaign is more about Southern black voters being more conservative (not conservative, but closer to center than the rest of the party) than any other narratives.

Perhaps younger people in the South didn't vote in such a large number and Sanders made little investment there after losing SC that badly.

 

[RoKKeR]

Clinton "misunderstood the electorate" is a pretty damning thing to hear.

 

[pigeon]

Two things are suggested by the exits so far:

1. Bernie didn't lose Michigan African-Americans by the margins he lost by in the South.
2. Seems like many Democrats engaged in tactical voting in the GOP primary. Quite possibly voters crossed over the other direction or just didn't vote at all. Note that this helps explain why the polls of likely primary voters didn't end up describing the Democratic primary electorate.

These two things combined equal a great night for Bernie.

 

[boiled goose]

Because he isn't as terrible as a liberal message board would have you believe

Nah. He is TERRIBLE. It is just that other Republicans and the DC establishment in general are also terrible. People are sick of getting fucked over by politicians.

 

[Black Republican]

Clinton team said they are expecting a loss

 

[nib95]

The debate, and his 3 recent victories also gave him some momentum here.

One thing I do know is that the campaign and his supporters were really pushing for viability in Mississippi and to narrow the loss in Michigan by as much as possible. I know they've been working hard. (Myself included, been phonebanking and textbanking and facebanking and blah blah blah.)

Fair play to you dude. I tip my hat to your efforts.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

You mess with the bull you get the horns.

Basically.

Edit: And yeah it's clear Bernie has MI at this point. It should probably be called at this point.

 

[Resident_UA]

Because he isn't as terrible as a liberal message board would have you believe

Look, I get that some of the things Trump says might seem reasonable to you. But "Ban Muslims from entering the US" is as terrible as you can get. Sure, he might not believe it, but it's the most insane thing I've heard coming out of politician's mouth.

 

[massoluk]

Wow, holy crap, 81% young vote

 

[ChoklitReign]

How is Cruz edging up to Kasich in MI?

 

[vainglorious]

Is it 1972? What the fuck Michigan.

 

[GuessMyUserName]

Because he isn't as terrible as a liberal message board would have you believe

Because the conservative side is totally in love with him, eh

 

[Epsilon-delta]

Is this the biggest polling upset of the election?

In primary history.

Decision Desk needs to hide in a corner for awhile. Their reputation should be ruined.

 

[whitehawk]

91% in, 24k lead!!

 

[Brinbe]

9% left, let's see what the actual margins will be. It's closing a bit.

 

[BowieZ]

Yet turnout is below 2008.

Enough about turnout being below 2008!

That came after 8 years of Bush.

And as has been reported numerous times, a sizeable % of Democrats are voting in the Republican race, mostly because the media has painted Hillary's nomination as inevitable. In 2008, it was a heated battle in the media between the first black President and the first female President.

This is not a comparable situation.

 

[eyeball_kid]

I think Bernie's trade message really resonated with Michigan voters. And despite some awkward stuff at the debate, it seems to have had some effect...he's ahead in Flint's county, after all. He's also spent a ton on advertising in MI... they knew this was a make-or-break state for them in terms of narrative.

 

[Ashodin]

Nate Silver walking it back, lol

Basically, I’m not sure that Michigan was ever really a 20-point race, as polls had it. Based on the demographics of the state, it probably narrowly favored Clinton. But then, perhaps some of her voters didn’t show up, or voted in the GOP primary instead, because it didn’t look like Clinton needed their vote.

Mmmhmm

 

[SolarPowered]

Two things are suggested by the exits so far:

1. Bernie didn't lose Michigan African-Americans by the margins he lost by in the South.
2. Seems like many Democrats engaged in tactical voting in the GOP primary. Quite possibly voters crossed over the other direction or just didn't vote at all. Note that this helps explain why the polls of likely primary voters didn't end up describing the Democratic primary electorate.

These two things combined equal a great night for Bernie.

Makes me wonder what would happen in other Northern/Western states with large minority populations. I have to imagine that black and hispanic voters from New York/California would vote pretty differently compared to their Southern counterparts.